I actually think the Chinese will withdraw.
Considering how aggressive the US has been getting, I don't think the Chinese are planning on helping Trump win the elections again.
Line of Actual Control (LAC) : India & Tibet Border Updates
- Thread starter Shashank
- Start date
I actually think the Chinese will withdraw.
Considering how aggressive the US has been getting, I don't think the Chinese are planning on helping Trump win the elections again.
For Most Indian people , Right Now
It is the ECONOMIC Challenges and uncertainties , these are the real life issues
Which are at the top of their minds
I dont see People talking about Ladakh
Corona has badly hurt the economy
We will see a minimum 15 percent decline in GDP in the First Half of thus Fiscal
Of course. Most people do not even understand what's happening at the border actually.
What is going on is a stalemate
It is a Log Jam
People would welcome a War to push back the Chinese ,BUT NOBODY wants more Taxes, higher oil prices or inflation
The whole purpose of the present standoff was to capture DBO
And the new 255 KM Highway built by India
Once DBO and the highway is secured by Indian Army
The Chinese can keep squatting for ever
Their deployment becomes useless
Chinese airforce will have to cross himalaya to fight IAF and their jet engines r not powerful enough to do that with full weapon load and fuel. Only 2 air to air missiles and half fuel. They will need a whole lot of squadrons to fight IAF and they can't afford it. Only option will be to make pakistan a scapegoat.
Whats your assessment of why the Chinese chose to ingress in such a serious manner , and be ready to inflect (and bear) casualties ? In a few lines pl.
I think revenge for doklam humiliation and ofcourse good old might is right. Thats why a peaceful resolution will send a very wrong signal to the bat eaters.
The chinese are tormented by the DSDBO all weather highway, the tributaries that go from it towards the LAC, as well as by Amit Shah's statement of "Jaan De Denge" for POK and Aksai Chin.
The chinese know this is their last chance to pretend powerful, so they stretched their action in Galwan to a manageable risk. Their miscalculation backfired on them, went back with a bloody nose.
Now, everything they are mobilizing is only for domestic consumption. CCP's top strategic issues to focus are as below.
Unless US starts a war in SCS, then all will jump in India, Taiwan, Japan and maybe S Korea. Even Vietnam and Philippines will grab their pound of flesh. That can cause a severe blow to china, ending up in its breakup, including freeing of Tibet. Else, this will just pass.
Meanwhile India will not put in a lot in liberating Tibet because later on it will be another mess where bunch of hyenas from all directions will tear it apart. Unless Tibet (Dalai Lama and the Prime Minister in Exile) agrees to sign an instrument of accession before India's participation, India will not expend its resources.
Iin the absence of all the above scenarios, not sure, what will be India's plan to push back the chinese from finger 4 to finger 8.
I'm not being evil- it's just that everything- the 3 floods, the 'wavy' bending of the dam etc. makes be think that the 3 gorges might actually collapse. They know that too- several other dams have burst, they have themselves taken apart several dykes to reduce pressure and nothing seems to be having a significant impact. This catastrophe might actually come through.
They themselves know that CPEC is a bs project. What they want is safety of the money pakistanis owe them.
They did to us what they did to ASEAN countries in the SCS and thought there won't be any blow-back since they are big and strong while India is struggling with COVID.
They were either very smart and have planned to attack us while we are weak, which means they plan to launch an invasion before winter sets in. Or they had no plans to fight, did not expect India's resistance, and are now stuck with a potentially humiliating problem where they will have to withdraw.
A peaceful resolution may not necessarily be to the liking of Indian military, but it will result in Xi and the PLA completely losing face within the party, and their own countrymen. If we push them back using force, they will lose even more face, and the Indian military will be happy, but it can come with a pretty significant cost to our economy, the cost will be unplanned modernisation with greater amount of money being earmarked for defence rather than economic upliftment. If we fail to push them back, then the Chinese will only get more aggressive, the military will lose a lot of morale, and there will be an even greater pressure on our budget, with potentially increasing our defence budget to 5-6% of GDP, which is not affordable.
The first case will be the cheapest, and the third will be the most expensive for our economy. But the downside of the first case is, the babus may decide we don't need to modernise faster since the Chinese have no will to attack, so the govt has to come down really hard on such thinking since the Chinese are guaranteed to be back again after a few years.
The govt has a very difficult decision to make. The best cases for us is either the first case, where they quietly withdraw and then allow us to modernise. Or the Chinese make it easy for us and they attack us first.
If they quietly withdraw then Indian military can move ahead to take back aksai hind, and to cut of xinxiang and liberate Tibet.
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Even if they Withdraw , without a Fight
There will be a Conflict in NEAR future
It will be EXACTLY like the Period 1999 to 2003 with PAKISTAN
First we had Kargil in 1999 Then A Huge Spike in Defence expenditure with T 90s and SU 30 Orders during PUTIN Visit in 2000 ; And then the 10 month long standoff in 2003 after Parliament attack
Whichever way we look at it , we are going to have a 25 to 30 percent increase in Defence expenditure
The Chinese Hate MODI and he will Further antagonise them with an Alliance with USA
They are not gonna withdraw all the way to China. Only to their rear positions as in April.
That time earned should be used to modernise of course.
25-30% increase is fine. 2x will make it hard for us.
Thats what i am trying to say. if they quietly withdraw to their rear positions as in April, then indian military can take up a initiative to push them back even further.
A war will transform will transform our economy. It will create much needed demand in this troubling time. Only cost which we would pay is loss of lives.
No , once they withdraw we lose the Casus Belli -- the Reason for going to War
If we attack after their withdrawal
We will invite a 2 Front situation
PAKISTAN will say it is helping its Best Friend
In Future our policy will depend on
US aggression towards China
If Joe Biden wins and he makes peace with China , then we will be left alone
So we will wait for US election results
We need Trump Back again
Yeah, I'm fine with that. But some people are pushing for an extra $100B every year, effectively more than doubling the defence budget. Meaning, back to how it as in the 60s and 70s where defence expenditure was 5-6% of GDP.