Half the war is lost even before it is begun if a war is started when enemy wants it and we are not ready for it. So dont expect any war for next 2-3 months militarily and a year or two economically. We are simply not there. If at all we fight a war that has to be very short one a week or two at the most. For the time being it will be a waiting game where both sides will size up each other.
Line of Actual Control (LAC) : India & Tibet Border Updates
- Thread starter Shashank
- Start date
I am very much sure US will bargain for a better trade deal with china and then throw India under the bus. Last time we decided not to join the RCEP ,reason given that our industries might get swamped by china but most importantly we were looking to US for a trade deal. The trade deal with US fizzled out and US went on to have deal with china. India was not only left out in cold but also looked very stupid. India is just a counter weight not an ally. Some thing which can be used to extort more from china. Only problem for western powers is India's beneficial sloth behavior which neither fights nor loses but simply keeps popping up in the equation every now & then.
We are the only country in the world to have bombed the sovereign territory of another nuclear power.
I can reply to this and it will go in a tangent that is not on topic.
To remain on topic, lets keep this discussion with respect to China standoff and possible India China hostilities only.
There's an annual summit of the CCP at a retreat in China scheduled for this August - a regular calendar event in the history of the CCP. You can expect hostilities to break out soon after that if things don't go well for Xi.
If the economy goes back on track to increasing as usual, then so will the military budget see a comparable rise. Even at 1.56% of GDP, the defence budget in 2025 could very well be $78B for a $5T economy, which is $33B more than it's today, or $62B for a $4T economy. With greater focus on indigenisation, the quality of the expenditure will also improve. Only if things go as normal.
The problem is we either spend a lot on defence now and screw up our future with respect to the economy. Or we take care of security now and then deal with the economy later.
Right now we definitely need a larger budget than normal. Whether that happens or not, we will only know next year.
All this mainly applies during peacetime. During war, the dynamics change a lot.
You were questioning whether India will make a military decision over China, so I gave my answer.
Tbh i feel instead of focusing on increasing budget , we should optimize our current one....like pension reforms , avoiding duplication , reducing red tape , trimming strength and focusing on quality instead...
Our focus should be increasing %capex in given budget
Given that tensions along the LAC will be more or less a permanent feature in the future..do we need 3 Pakistan focussed strike corps? Are there any plans to make any of them China focussed Mountain strike corps.. or multiple mountain warfare IBGs ?
I don't know what u think but in my opinion this leadership has shown the guts to stand against the bully like china which no other Indian leadership did whether economically or diplomatically. As far as military option is concerned, u will definitely see that too. Don't rush.
My question was "Is banning apps a military option of India against Chinese intrusion and military aggression?". Is this the military reply for PLA intrusion?
It is setting cost for the misadventure. After all Chinese are biggest baniya than us.
I think a perusal of these two videos would make clear why China is quiet at the moment on the LAC, particularly the 1st video. There's an annual retreat of the CCP scheduled in August 2020 - an annual calendar event. If things get hot for Xi, we'd see action as soon as the retreat ends.
I have another question, where are those satellites and all those listening devices and MI people who couldn't find out that Chinese were planning large scale intrusion. I don't believe this level of lethargy and unprofessional attitude. And then there are agreements like don't use AAM, use sticks along LAC.
People say don't question military? Well if military has close to 2.7 million personals and remains unaware of the intrusion that too at multiple places then its pathetic. Does India have guts to do Kargil type intrusion in POJK and China, No! Because they are never prepared.
Either it's the failure of military and other agency or govt to foresee this development. And then when they can't do anything then here some excuses
1) sometimes they lack bullet proof jackets
2) sometimes their Sqdn strength is low
3) sometimes they don't have ammunition
4) sometimes it's the weather,
5) sometimes it's the state leader's visit
6) sometimes it's the economy
7) and when there are no excuses then India have elections
Was Pakistan prepared before doing Kargil. 80% of the armed forces were not aware and still they managed to give bloody nose, and even managed to hold back India from crossing LOC. India was avoiding escalation and keeping monetary cost factor in mind. They were lacking many equipment.
more than 700 Indian soldiers lost their lives and they couldn't even cross LOC. And mark this post, India will follow rules of engagement and will not cross LAC even this time. They aren't crossing Finger 4 isn't it forget the Indian presumed LAC.
What a poor banana republic India has become. Or do Idnians think that enemy will come when India has got all boys toys and fancy stuff from france Russia and europe.
The reogranisation into IBGs will reduce strength and increase technology input. So it will cut down on salaries and increase cost of capital purchases. Whether we can afford that, we need to see.
One of the best moves made was to privatise workshops through the GOCO model. These workshops used to be a shithole of corruption and the end quality was really bad. With the privatisation, things should improve, while at the same time cut down on the army's revenue budget and increase availability.
There's a plan to raise 2 MSCs. One has been half raised, XVII Corps. The other is pending.
The economic aggression is meant as a punishment to China's moves at the border. This is most likely permanent, the way things are going.
Whether a military option will be considered, it will be up to the Chinese. If they withdraw peacefully, then we do not need to opt for a kinetic option. If they don't withdraw, then we will see.
Devil knows, we are not even able to properly attack Pakistan even in retaliation. We are 10 times in economy and seven times in population.
Chinese surely doesn't want to give US an opportunity to be privileged of Indian support. Seems Chinese minds are working and now only want to focus on SCS for now and Ladakh later on.
