Line of Actual Control (LAC) : India & Tibet Border Updates

Eihd_lBVoAAMZvL

Eihd_lAU4AArFqK
 
  • Informative
Reactions: JustCurious
I agree with the rest of post. But I don't agree with the assessment that they need J20C to negate our air superiority. Their J11Ds in large numbers are enough for that, not to mention the upgrade of huge fleet of older J11s to that level. Which in my opinion is the very next thing Chinese are going to do. Plus they could easily construct new airbases and upgrade the present ones in a short span of time. Then they would be able to compensate the altitude disadvantage through sheer numbers and superior weapon systems.
I also think that Chinese are going to spend some huge chunk of money for arming Pakistan. They could easily throw 10-15 BN dollars annually for it. That's not a big deal for them. But for us it will have some serious implications. Also due to increased interoperability, Chinese jets operating from PAF bases is not something of distant future. All these combined presents a grave security situation for us in very near future. And our present procurement plan or anything else doesn't promise an effective counter. Here is just one example of how much money Chinese are going to spend for arming Pakistan.
P.S I have only included Airforce in my analysis , but it is obvious that all this is true for other branches of military too.
P.PS IMO the solution of this is to force a war on China now, or if things doesn't escalate then go for the disintegration of Pakistan in December- January. It is time that our political leadership learn that the only good enemy is a dead enemy.
China Pakistan 8 yuan class submarine seal is an old one. .It was being discussed since 2015
Kya gul khilaya ab humre MEA Babu ne?
Wasnt there a joint statement already after Jaishankar wang meet?
 
I agree with the rest of post. But I don't agree with the assessment that they need J20C to negate our air superiority. Their J11Ds in large numbers are enough for that, not to mention the upgrade of huge fleet of older J11s to that level. Which in my opinion is the very next thing Chinese are going to do. Plus they could easily construct new airbases and upgrade the present ones in a short span of time. Then they would be able to compensate the altitude disadvantage through sheer numbers and superior weapon systems.

They need quality more than quantity. It's because most of their geography is not suitable for aircraft operations.

The only area where they can achieve something without needing extensive mid-air refuelling is from Hotan and Keriya. Everywhere else, like Damxung, Ngari, Shigatse etc, aircraft endurance and payload drops by a significant margin. The only way to make up for that is to use large aircraft with large fuel loads and extremely advanced engines in comparison to what we are operating. So the J-20C.

Right now there's not much they can do with their air force. In the near future, with air field infrastructure developed, they will end up matching our own infrastructure, but they are further away from the battlefield than we are. Post 2025, closer to 2030, they will get advanced jets that can nullify their geographical disadvantages.

I also think that Chinese are going to spend some huge chunk of money for arming Pakistan. They could easily throw 10-15 BN dollars annually for it. That's not a big deal for them. But for us it will have some serious implications. Also due to increased interoperability, Chinese jets operating from PAF bases is not something of distant future. All these combined presents a grave security situation for us in very near future. And our present procurement plan or anything else doesn't promise an effective counter.

Yep, that kinda money easily exceeds our own budget for capital procurement, especially considering we buy more expensive Western stuff too. But we still keep the qualitative advantage. The only way to counter that is by spending more.

Here is just one example of how much money Chinese are going to spend for arming Pakistan.
P.S I have only included Airforce in my analysis , but it is obvious that all this is true for other branches of military too.
P.PS IMO the solution of this is to force a war on China now, or if things doesn't escalate then go for the disintegration of Pakistan in December- January. It is time that our political leadership learn that the only good enemy is a dead enemy.

It looks like we have to fight someone or the other.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Aurora
I don't care about the figures sir. My focus is on Chinese help. Let us assume that this deal is actually worth 4bn dollars. Pakistan can't afford even that. It is clear that Chinese are aiding them in this purchase and many others like VT4 and Sph 15. Future help in acquiring some serious capabilities like J10Cs etc are almost a certainty. If China wants, which it almost certainly is now, then it could easily arm Pakistan upto a level that it becomes a major security threat for us. We must have to figure a way to never let that happen.
Pakistan is and was the major security threat for Indian. It was even before they started importing from china. Of course, chinese is arming the pakistanis to destabilize india in the region. These are nothing new.

Pakistan is a security state which spends a large part of the budget on military. They can afford all these systems when it is offered in long term loans. Their credit ratings were always bad thus their ratio of debt-to-gdp is relatively good. When there is a security angle, Chinese can logically offer generous loans.
 


On Sunday, Pakistani comedian Zaid Hamid uploaded a video showing several PLA recruits crying on a bus as they are allegedly "transferred to Ladakh Border to face Indian Army [sic]." Hamid then wrote that China's one-child policy is "seriously hurting the motivation level of our Chinese brothers."

He then added, "We Pakistani support you China. Stay Brave." Although Pakistan is an ally of China, Hamid appeared to be poking fun at the tender, green recruits.🤣🤣🤣



 
  • Haha
Reactions: Gautam and Paro
Oh wow! I missed this one. Indeed a massive miss!
So MHA was responsible for border management via ITBP and thats why @Falcon was saying to put them under IA. This issue is not even under one single ministry, much less under a common command.

No wonder Modi never says China. No wonder Koi Naheen Ghusa. No wonder Jaishankar was cornered in Moscow.

Well pointed Mr @Falcon ... very very well pointed. The saving grace is the initiative taken by IA else this would have been a harder fall.

And how did IA took that initiative ? did Nehru give that order from his grave to correct his 1962 mistake ?
 
Nothing is going to happen , GoI doesn't have the will or intent to fight.
What happened in Congress rule was downright surrender of our territories , but I expected more from this government .

What I fail to understand is our defensive policy . Why don't we occupy our own territories in Chinese occupation in bits and pieces same as what china does every year. Why are we so intent in status quo . Is there some noble prize for maintaining status quo .

Our country being a democracy is one reason why we cannot do the above IMO. Governments be it of any party want to have a good time during their tenure and hence adopt a defensive attitude towards territorial incursions. In a democracy like ours main priority for any government is to stay in power and the only time such issues are tackled proactively if there is overwhelming political benifits towards the same which can consolidate their government. It's not only the government , the entire bureaucracy , the institutions in the country are more interested in the survival of the government whichever party be in power rather than furthering the interests of the country. Nor do we a giant and powerful MIC to actually influence the government towards war in our national interest unlike in America which is also a democracy.

Also I believe our military isn't prepared , localised conflict maybe , but not a full-fledged war . Blame lies with all the government's till date , the military and our non existant MIC and not to forget our good for nothing bureaucracy.

I wanted to see India regain all our lost territories in my lifetime . I have almost lost all hope except maybe if Hindu revival can one day grow strong and widespread enough to bring about homogeneity in our aspirations and national fervor. Tathastu .
 
Last edited:
Nothing is going to happen , GoI doesn't have the will or intent to fight.
What happened in Congress rule was downright surrender of our territories , but I expected more from this government .

What I fail to understand is our defensive policy . Why don't we occupy our own territories in Chinese occupation in bits and pieces same as what china does every year. Why are we so intent in status quo . Is there some noble prize for maintaining status quo .

We only have some tactical advantages. We control greater heights, we are better trained, our air bases are more numerous and well dispersed etc. But the Chinese have all the strategic advantages, which are actually very important. Like our economy is only at the same level as China's was back in probably 2004-05. They have the ability to out-build and out-last us. And we have bigger headaches concerning Pakistan than China.

The more aggressive we get, the more aggressive the Chinese get. It's a matter of their "Middle Kingdom" pride after all. And they have more options to engage with us, including arming separatists within India and footing the Pakistan Army's monthly bill. Dumping $10B a year into Pakistan's capital procurement for the next 5 years is peanuts for China, but you can understand the ramifications for us if the Chinese did do that.

Our country being a democracy is one reason why we cannot do the above IMO. Governments be it of any party want to have a good time during their tenure and hence adopt a defensive attitude towards territorial incursions. In a democracy like ours main priority for any government is to stay in power and the only time such issues are tackled proactively if there is overwhelming political benifits towards the same which can consolidate their government. It's not only the government , the entire bureaucracy , the institutions in the country are more interested in the survival of the government whichever party be in power rather than furthering the interests of the country. Nor do we a giant and powerful MIC to actually influence the government towards war in our national interest unlike in America which is also a democracy.

This has nothing to do with democracy, but everything to do with power. Only powerful countries can do powerful things.
 
The more aggressive we get, the more aggressive the Chinese get. It's a matter of their "Middle Kingdom" pride after all. And they have more options to engage with us, including arming separatists within India and footing the Pakistan Army's monthly bill. Dumping $10B a year into Pakistan's capital procurement for the next 5 years is peanuts for China, but you can understand the ramifications for us if the Chinese did do that.

China does not need any excuse to help Pakistan , if it really wants to

They keep Pakistan on a Tight leash

They. Give them only that amount of money which will keep Pakistan afloat

Chinese have only One Concern --- USAF

Just One USAF Base in India and China
loses Aksai Chin and Even Tibet

They will always think about that before starting a Conflict
 
Interesting perspective @Falcon ; @vstol Jockey ; @Milspec ; @suryakiran

All this while, we were given time understand that Gen Sundarji was perhaps the greatest tactician cum strategist the IA ever produced. The thinking man's general as it were. Gen VN Sharma here seems to be debunking the entire notion - lock stock & barrel. He's pretty much called out AVM Subramanyam's cataloguing of our military history as well.

Frankly, Gen Sharma doesn't come across as a publicity hound. In fact I can't remember the last public interview he gave since his retirement if he ever gave one at all.

What're your views on it?
We have a habit of lionizing or demonizing public figures. There are many things we attribute to Brasstacks that necessarily are inaccurate, including op chequerboard seen in the same prism as Op Brasstack.
In my very limited knowledge, Sundarji's overall legacy was an emphasis on bringing speed in mobilization and especially focusing on mechanized infantry. This is based on studying best practices around the world with the constraints within the Indian economy, Local technology, and resources.

We have discussed CSD to death, but at the end of it no matter which theater it is around the world, the basic principle has been to get troops to the frontline, mechanisms change based on the ground realities.
 
China does not need any excuse to help Pakistan , if it really wants to

They keep Pakistan on a Tight leash

They. Give them only that amount of money which will keep Pakistan afloat

Chinese have only One Concern --- USAF

Just One USAF Base in India and China
loses Aksai Chin and Even Tibet

They will always think about that before starting a Conflict

That's actually impossible. You are overestimating the air force way too much.

Plus it will take them many years to set up and train for it.