Line of Actual Control (LAC) : India & Tibet Border Updates

Few of the Indian actions led to the Chinese action as we see them unfolding -

1) Abrogation of 370,
2) Mention of Aksai-Chin in the parliament.

These led the Chinese to believe that we (India) was going on the offensive. They needed to stop that in it's tracks so that China can concentrate on more important objectives.

I firmly believe that China's aim has always been Taiwan. For all their bravado in Ladakh, their aim was simple - gauge our response. If they had intentions to attack and gain ground in a limited war, they would have done so (or atleast tried) - galwan was a jolt for them that came totally out of their syllabus. However, it helped them understand one very important thing, we will retaliate if and only if we are attacked. We won't be the one to initiate it. This gave them the assurance they needed.

Now, they are sure now that if the they start an offensive against Taiwan, India will be both reluctant to and incapable
of helping Taiwan except for the lip service.

The current situation in AFG has handed them the ammunition further. US has its hands full now and can in no effective way defend Taiwan in case of the eventuality.
Joe Biden will be like - US lives matter and we won't send our soldiers to die.

Although this is a conjecture, I didn't find any other reason which explains what China did in Ladakh. I feel they had the chance to go on the offensive if they wanted to, the fact that they chose not to can be coz of two things - 1) Galwan changed their strategy,
2) it was not their intention all along.

The point to note is - if (1) is the actual case, I don't see how China is any different from India in terms of reaction - this is similar to India not going forward with the offensive against Pakistan on 27th Feb despite their attack on Indian military installations. They backed off the moment they lost a few men. OTOH if it's (2), then we need to question their actual motive.

I might be wrong about my analysis of Chinese actions, so feel free to contradict and/or add points.
 
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Defc0n said:
Few of the Indian actions led to the Chinese action as we see them unfolding -

1) Abrogation of 370,
2) Mention of Aksai-Chin in the parliament.

These led the Chinese to believe that we (India) was going on the offensive. They needed to stop that in it's tracks so that China can concentrate on more important objectives.

I firmly believe that China's aim has always been Taiwan. For all their bravado in Ladakh, their aim was simple - gauge our response. If they had intentions to attack and gain ground in a limited war, they would have done so (or atleast tried) - galwan was a jolt for them that came totally out of their syllabus. However, it helped them understand one very important thing, we will retaliate if and only if we are attacked. We won't be the one to initiate it. This gave them the assurance they needed.

Now, they are sure now that if the they start an offensive against Taiwan, India will be both reluctant to and incapable
of helping Taiwan except for the lip service.

The current situation in AFG has handed them the ammunition further. US has its hands full now and can in no effective way defend Taiwan in case of the eventuality.
Joe Biden will be like - US lives matter and we won't send our soldiers to die.

Although this is a conjecture, I didn't find any other reason which explains what China did in Ladakh. I feel they had the chance to go on the offensive if they wanted to, the fact that they chose not to can be coz of two things - 1) Galwan changed their strategy,
2) it was not their intention all along.

The point to note is - if (1) is the actual case, I don't see how China is any different from India in terms of reaction - this is similar to India not going forward with the offensive against Pakistan on 27th Feb despite their attack on Indian military installations. They backed off the moment they lost a few men. OTOH if it's (2), then we need to question their actual motive.

I might be wrong about my analysis of Chinese actions, so feel free to contradict and/or add points.
Click to expand...

My two cents, they wanted to come in and squat hoping India will back off quietly like their other neighbours did, some overzealous commander in Galwan screwed up, the PLA got stuck. They expected us to back off, we didn't, and they can't afford to back off since they will look weak and even if they want to back off we have no intention of giving them a face-saving exit either.
 
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randomradio said:
My two cents, they wanted to come in and squat hoping India will back off quietly like their other neighbours did, some overzealous commander in Galwan screwed up, the PLA got stuck. They expected us to back off, we didn't, and they can't afford to back off since they will look weak and even if they want to back off we have no intention of giving them a face-saving exit either.
Click to expand...

The events timeline doesn't match this conclusion. If they wanted to come in and squat, the actions of "one over zealous commander" wouldn't have stopped them from doing so. The loss of men at Galwan (assuming that's what the result of the actions of the so called over zealous commander was) would have provided them with the impetus to carry on with the offensive. Instead, we have not heard about any more armed confrontation since then. If they thought that IA wouldn't provide any resistance, expecting that to happen as a result of an 18th century style fight is a stretch even for the Chinese. Every thing that has happened so far gives the feeling that the Chinese have not tried "hard enough" or "seriously enough". If their intention was more than intimidation, what stopped them from carrying it out? India was woefully under prepared for a fight on two fronts - had to rush in and do emergency purchases etc? Doesn't make sense that China and Pakistan did not make the full use of the situation that they had.

However, if what you wrote is actually the case, then China's military doctrines are laughable. A country with the economic and military power of China, manages to get bogged down coz of an 18th century style fight which was orchestrated by one of their over zealous commander - shouldn't even dream about "fighting" a war going forward with any one.
 
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Defc0n said:
The events timeline doesn't match this conclusion. If they wanted to come in and squat, the actions of "one over zealous commander" wouldn't have stopped them from doing so. The loss of men at Galwan (assuming that's what the result of the actions of the so called over zealous commander was) would have provided them with the impetus to carry on with the offensive. Instead, we have not heard about any more armed confrontation since then. If they thought that IA wouldn't provide any resistance, expecting that to happen as a result of an 18th century style fight is a stretch even for the Chinese. Every thing that has happened so far gives the feeling that the Chinese have not tried "hard enough" or "seriously enough". If their intention was more than intimidation, what stopped them from carrying it out? India was woefully under prepared for a fight on two fronts - had to rush in and do emergency purchases etc? Doesn't make sense that China and Pakistan did not make the full use of the situation that they had.

However, if what you wrote is actually the case, then China's military doctrines are laughable. A country with the economic and military power of China, manages to get bogged down coz of an 18th century style fight which was orchestrated by one of their over zealous commander - shouldn't even dream about "fighting" a war going forward with any one.
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Galwan didn't seem to be part of their plan.

I feel it's no different from our Balakot adventure. We had to call off further operations because WC Abhinandan went out by himself and got caught. So the PLAGF also fell into the same predicament the IAF found themselves in after such an unplanned incident.

It's likely that the local Chinese commander expected to drive away the Indians in Galwan with just stones as a warning, but things went awry for them once some of the stones found their mark. I honestly find it difficult to believe the Chinese would be dumb enough to plan an operation along the entirety of the Western LAC centering around the chucking of stones at the IA.

As for why I don't believe they planned an invasion of any sort is because the PLAAF is not ready to fight the IAF. Even today they are still modernising their air bases and building new ones. If they had planned anything of the sort they would have begun construction of bases long before. The PLAGF cannot fight India without the PLAAF. Also, the fact that the IA was in greater strength in Ladakh than the PLAGF when the Galwan clash happened. We had a full division, with another division right behind, although presumably in its peacetime location, while the Chinese had only 2 brigades. They need a full corps if they want to try something. In fact the IA was in a position to attack them first.
 
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Defc0n said:
Few of the Indian actions led to the Chinese action as we see them unfolding -

1) Abrogation of 370,
2) Mention of Aksai-Chin in the parliament.

These led the Chinese to believe that we (India) was going on the offensive. They needed to stop that in it's tracks so that China can concentrate on more important objectives.

I firmly believe that China's aim has always been Taiwan. For all their bravado in Ladakh, their aim was simple - gauge our response. If they had intentions to attack and gain ground in a limited war, they would have done so (or atleast tried) - galwan was a jolt for them that came totally out of their syllabus. However, it helped them understand one very important thing, we will retaliate if and only if we are attacked. We won't be the one to initiate it. This gave them the assurance they needed.

Now, they are sure now that if the they start an offensive against Taiwan, India will be both reluctant to and incapable
of helping Taiwan except for the lip service.

The current situation in AFG has handed them the ammunition further. US has its hands full now and can in no effective way defend Taiwan in case of the eventuality.
Joe Biden will be like - US lives matter and we won't send our soldiers to die.

Although this is a conjecture, I didn't find any other reason which explains what China did in Ladakh. I feel they had the chance to go on the offensive if they wanted to, the fact that they chose not to can be coz of two things - 1) Galwan changed their strategy,
2) it was not their intention all along.

The point to note is - if (1) is the actual case, I don't see how China is any different from India in terms of reaction - this is similar to India not going forward with the offensive against Pakistan on 27th Feb despite their attack on Indian military installations. They backed off the moment they lost a few men. OTOH if it's (2), then we need to question their actual motive.

I might be wrong about my analysis of Chinese actions, so feel free to contradict and/or add points.
Click to expand...
The entire premise doesn't hold water for throughout history beginning 1949 with the establishment of the PRC it was they who initiated all the conflicts with it's neighbours never the other way around.

The 1962 war was precipitated by 2-3 events namely the seeking of refuge by the Dalai Lama in India in 1959 , Nehru's ill conceived forward policy the same year & of course to divert attention from the chaotic internal situation brought about by the 5 pests campaign & great leap forward. According to declassified documents from Chinese archives themselves , The preparations for 1962 began in 1959 while we were fast asleep & full of bluster & indignant outrage.

Post the 1962 debacle , India dismantled all the apparatus it set up to aid Tibetan insurgency & neglected the whole area till the 2000s. In between you had the Cho La & Nathu La incidents which were purely defensive acts . Proof of it is the Chinese didn't escalate after receiving a bloody nose for it knew India's red lines .

Ditto for the current situation. This was as much about checking India's broader infrastructure creation on the border , cut down Modi to size , probe to check India's preparedness & red lines especially after the Doklam incidents.

India's scrapping of Article 370 & Amit Shah's statements in Parliament were used only as post facto justifications by the Chinese. Preparations for this began nearly a year in advance if not 6 months . In Oct Nov 2019 India was busy hosting Xi in an informal summit at Mamallapuram seeking further security guarantees & offering them our own.

The issue of Article 370 didn't cause any major incident with the Chinese as per Indian sources which from hindsight is coz they had already decided their course of action.
 
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Defc0n said:
However, it helped them understand one very important thing, we will retaliate if and only if we are attacked.
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Not just that, now they also know that when a strong leader is in power there will be retaliation from Indian side otherwise 1962 can be repeated in future.
 
Cole_phelps said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1438122982560333827
Click to expand...

We most definitely need a conventional rocket force. CMs and BMs have become far too indispensable and we need capability that works outside the realm of supporting ground units alone. Obviously we also need a stealth bomber, but that's way too far into the future, unless the Americans or the Russians sell us a squadron of their new ones.
 
_Anonymous_ said:
The entire premise doesn't hold water for throughout history beginning 1949 with the establishment of the PRC it was they who initiated all the conflicts with it's neighbours never the other way around.

The 1962 war was precipitated by 2-3 events namely the seeking of refuge by the Dalai Lama in India in 1959 , Nehru's ill conceived forward policy the same year & of course to divert attention from the chaotic internal situation brought about by the 5 pests campaign & great leap forward. According to declassified documents from Chinese archives themselves , The preparations for 1962 began in 1959 while we were fast asleep & full of bluster & indignant outrage.

Post the 1962 debacle , India dismantled all the apparatus it set up to aid Tibetan insurgency & neglected the whole area till the 2000s. In between you had the Cho La & Nathu La incidents which were purely defensive acts . Proof of it is the Chinese didn't escalate after receiving a bloody nose for it knew India's red lines .

Ditto for the current situation. This was as much about checking India's broader infrastructure creation on the border , cut down Modi to size , probe to check India's preparedness & red lines especially after the Doklam incidents.

India's scrapping of Article 370 & Amit Shah's statements in Parliament were used only as post facto justifications by the Chinese. Preparations for this began nearly a year in advance if not 6 months . In Oct Nov 2019 India was busy hosting Xi in an informal summit at Mamallapuram seeking further security guarantees & offering them our own.

The issue of Article 370 didn't cause any major incident with the Chinese as per Indian sources which from hindsight is coz they had already decided their course of action.
Click to expand...

What exactly is our red line. I am still scratching my head on that one.
 
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