Another meeting of Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China border affairs expected soon. India fully committed to observing and respecting Line of Actual Control and we will not accept any attempt to change status quo : MEA. (PTI)
— The Hindu (@the_hindu) July 23, 2020
Line of Actual Control (LAC) : India & Tibet Border Updates
- Thread starter Shashank
- Start date
Indian forces mostly operate Russian equipment and if they are seen as a failure against copied Chinese toys, Russians will loose this very lucrative biz of their economy. They will ensure that their original designs flown by India defeat the copies of their chinese equipment.
I agree with you here. If we leave mountain warfare and go down to fight in plains in Aksai Hind we might end up having a very long drawn battle. Koreans defeated US by sticking to the mountains with the help of Chinese. But what helps us the most in this battle in plains is that Chinese have very very long supplylines which can be easily blocked for sometime like 2-3 weeks. After that the battle in Plains of Aksai Hind will turn to battles in the deserts where IA will decimate them.
I read in detail the thread of Ravi Rikhaye. he is right on many aspects but he woefully forgot about over 400K soldiers available to IA during war like BSF, ITBP, Assam Rifles and RR. The present defensive build up is only with Pivot Corps and not by the strike elements which are still being moved. Infect, the Pivot corps will be able to create strike elements of their own once these Paramilitary forces are put under their command during war to augment the strength of defensive divisions.
The force composition he has talked of in his twitter thread is totally based on IA OrBat without taking into account the paramilitary forces. Moreover he has done a very big mistake. he has put all the forces of chinese WTC in Aksai Hind and Barahoti sector including reserves. IA has four corps in Sikkim and NE including a strike corps. The Central command has just one montain Div while it must have atleast one corps. Western Command and Northen command have swing troops which can augment 14th corps in Laddakh with elements of ITBP and Laddakh scouts. Pakistan border will have more than adequate punch power with three strike corps directed against them.
With Quad coming into force, it will be extremely difficult for PLA to move troops from other theatre commands to supplement WTC. It is for this reason that I am of the opinion that we must go ahead and attack PLA first at the time of our choosing. I find the thread by Ravi Rikhaye an attempt to create scare and nothing else.
I forgot to add that on Pakistan border we already have IBGs operational drawn from Pivot Corps. It is my opinion that we must convert atleast one strike corps to swing strike corps for Barahoti sector as that is the neck of Tibet and Xinjiang. We scuttle them in central sector, we can librate Tibet.
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Broadly agreed to.
By Mr Rikhiye is far more informed and accurate in his analysis than 99.99% journalists out there.
Obviously, I am in favor of a military resolution of the stand off at the earliest - for tactical and strategic reasons. But those have been put paid to.
We have the capability to push the envelope. It shall need the re-gearing of the defence procution and ruthless implementation of defence production target, to actually allow us to maintain the momentum of attack.
Defence Minister needs to just state -'Strategic Weapons can be used in case the Nation faces a grave security risk' and walk away.
Let the Chinks scratch their heads.
I have only one suggestion Buddy. I know RSS very well. My forefathers were supporters of RSS but voted for congress. I changed my father before his death and in the last election he voted for, he voted for BJP. Modi is a hardcore RSS guy. China has done its ultimate mistake and Modi is going to pounce on it. He has never let go of a good opportunity. You have your sources and I have mine. What I know is that me might have whole of Aksai Hind and also parts of Tibet under our control to force China to agree to demarcate border with border pillars and GPS tagged.
Just check how many trucks have been hired by IA in last couple of weeks other than their own.
Honestly, it's very difficult to say what Russia will do after 10 years or so. China could be a $30T economy, Russia could be a piddly $2.5T economy. Then one can imagine what it will be like 20 years from now, when the difference is going to be even more stark.
Russia Ditches Goal of Becoming Top 5 Economy - The Moscow Times
Russia has dropped its target of becoming one of the world’s five largest economies in a sweeping reset of its ambitious national development goals.
Russia could either end up falling under China's influence or ironically end up joining NATO to counter the Chinese threat. I don't believe Russia will be able to find a middle ground to co-exist with China beyond a certain point.
As for the weapons, I don't think there's anything there. The Chinese ripped off Russian weapons to build up their own industry. But the majority of their export products are now their own designs. Any passing external resemblance are not covered under global IP laws and are barely anything significant enough for Russia to contend with. For example, the Buk/Shtil transformation to HQ-16 now incorporates mostly Chinese tech. But at the same time, they are unlikely to cross the line by exporting their Flanker rip-offs. The new Chinese products have basically started competing with the Russians in traditionally Russian markets though, and that's bad enough, but it's just a new competitor. India will also start stepping on Russian and Chinese toes at the export market in a few years. The only way out for Russia is to diversify into the civilian domain and make stuff that regular global consumers want. One little advance in battery technology can kill the oil industry after all.
Very few people know it that Russians have allowed Indians from poorvanchal to settle in its FarEast to counter chinese work force.Honestly, it's very difficult to say what Russia will do after 10 years or so. China could be a $30T economy, Russia could be a piddly $2.5T economy. Then one can imagine what it will be like 20 years from now, when the difference is going to be even more stark.
Russia Ditches Goal of Becoming Top 5 Economy - The Moscow Times
Russia has dropped its target of becoming one of the world’s five largest economies in a sweeping reset of its ambitious national development goals.www.themoscowtimes.com
Russia could either end up falling under China's influence or ironically end up joining NATO to counter the Chinese threat. I don't believe Russia will be able to find a middle ground to co-exist with China beyond a certain point.
As for the weapons, I don't think there's anything there. The Chinese ripped off Russian weapons to build up their own industry. But the majority of their export products are now their own designs. Any passing external resemblance are not covered under global IP laws and are barely anything significant enough for Russia to contend with. For example, the Buk/Shtil transformation to HQ-16 now incorporates mostly Chinese tech. But at the same time, they are unlikely to cross the line by exporting their Flanker rip-offs. The new Chinese products have basically started competing with the Russians in traditionally Russian markets though, and that's bad enough, but it's just a new competitor. India will also start stepping on Russian and Chinese toes at the export market in a few years. The only way out for Russia is to diversify into the civilian domain and make stuff that regular global consumers want. One little advance in battery technology can kill the oil industry after all.
Regarding war with China, I am very sure of a decisive victory. My thinking is based on two things. First, we are a volunteer force and second we have some of the finest SFs. Calling our SFs beast is a very gentle statement and calling them Brutal is Humble. They are Mahakaal.
Congress after 1984 sikh riots introduced even a quota system in recruitment of soldiers based on states and the firness was thrown to the winds. That resulted in falling in recruitment of people from Haryana and Punjab. I fail to understand how can we have a quota within the volunteers? I am not casting aspertions on the soldiers we recruit now but was such a quota needed?
Difficult for Chinese companies to participate in Indian Public Procurement. General Financial Rules 2017 amended. pic.twitter.com/Fsuk5a4z62
— Sidhant Sibal (@sidhant) July 23, 2020
Indian embassy at its best!?!India has made historic progress in Ease of Doing Business. One of the many reasons why India continues to be a preferred investment destination! pic.twitter.com/dOIwIDmZay
— India in China (@EOIBeijing) July 23, 2020
My thinking is in case of a two-front war at this time or in the near future, we won't be aiming to take down Pakistan completely. So, while the Pivot Corps along Pakistan have the goal of taking over some territory in a limited war, all three Strike Corps will be left underutilised or unutilised. Which means merely airlifting even one RAPIDs into South Ladakh can change the equation drastically.
There was no chance of that happening this year, with our economy in a complete tailspin. Which is most likely why the Chinese even attempt to do it this year.
During Kargil and LAC, both Pakistan and China had to put little effort to do what they did.
I am not from so called elite but from a very rural background. We speak Haryanavi in our family.
I somehow have a feeling that Chandimadir based strike corps is now a swing corps and that explains why we have just one mountain Div in Barahoti. The Chandimadir based Strike Corps is equally distanced from both borders. With IBGs in play on western border, this strike Corps is the surprise element of IA against China.
Towards end of 2000s, IA Western and South Western Command conducted a series of table top exercises assessing the impact of drawdown of vast numbers of first line troops from western front to China theatre on IA posture against PA. The results and insights from these exercises are classified but on a broad level, IA made the following assessments:
IA can maintain a credible detterence and conduct effective defense of areas even with a substantial numerical disadvantage against PA deployments, by moving to a more aggressive, preemptive posture and by intelligent employment of terrain advantages, especially in Punjab and South Kashmir sectors. More knowledgeable people here will understand what is being hinted at here.
With a numerical disadvantage, IA is better off being proactive and mounting offensives rather than being defensive and reactive. It is absolutely vital that IA seizes the initiative right from the outset and deny freedom of operations to PA GHQ.
IBGs become a vital component of defensive operations and are to be employed as tactical spearheads in offense and as counterattack QRF force against enemy breakthrough in force. IBGs in association with independent motorized/mechanized/armored troops are expected to mount full bloodied, multi vector counter attacks to stanch any substantial enemy breaches within 24-72 hours, before the enemy has opportunity to consolidate their positions. This is somewhat similar to Wehrmacht's and particularly Manstein & Model's usage of makeshift battlegroups (centered around Tiger and Panther battalions) to plug Soviet breakthroughs. At a lower level, available mechanised units will be responsible for localized counter attacks at the earliest. IBGs must only engage when covered by air support operations.
Since then at multiple large scale wargames, makeshift battlegroups have been tested for these roles against above objectives to refine operations. All of them highlighted the absolute need for close coordination with air units for CAPs and CAS.
IA can maintain a credible detterence and conduct effective defense of areas even with a substantial numerical disadvantage against PA deployments, by moving to a more aggressive, preemptive posture and by intelligent employment of terrain advantages, especially in Punjab and South Kashmir sectors. More knowledgeable people here will understand what is being hinted at here.
With a numerical disadvantage, IA is better off being proactive and mounting offensives rather than being defensive and reactive. It is absolutely vital that IA seizes the initiative right from the outset and deny freedom of operations to PA GHQ.
IBGs become a vital component of defensive operations and are to be employed as tactical spearheads in offense and as counterattack QRF force against enemy breakthrough in force. IBGs in association with independent motorized/mechanized/armored troops are expected to mount full bloodied, multi vector counter attacks to stanch any substantial enemy breaches within 24-72 hours, before the enemy has opportunity to consolidate their positions. This is somewhat similar to Wehrmacht's and particularly Manstein & Model's usage of makeshift battlegroups (centered around Tiger and Panther battalions) to plug Soviet breakthroughs. At a lower level, available mechanised units will be responsible for localized counter attacks at the earliest. IBGs must only engage when covered by air support operations.
Since then at multiple large scale wargames, makeshift battlegroups have been tested for these roles against above objectives to refine operations. All of them highlighted the absolute need for close coordination with air units for CAPs and CAS.
II Corps HQ is in Ambala now. But two "infantry" divisions are in Dehradun and Meerut. There's some news that Dehradun's 14th RAPID's armoured brigade was moved elsewhere and switched with another division in exchange for an infantry brigade. And the 14th is now a full infantry division and was moved to Himachal Pradesh.
It's possible that Patiala's 1st Armoured Division has been converted into IBGs. If you include some armoured elements from the other two infantry divisions along with some independent brigades that we already have, basically shuffle some units around, we can raise a complete new corps based around the armoured division. If the entire army is converted into IBGs, then those 7 independent brigades can also be used to bolster other formations. The two infantry divisions can then be permanently tasked with the Chinese border, perhaps even these having been reorganised into IBGs. This will give the IA an extra division for the Central LAC and an extra division in the plains, possibly the Meerut based division, which can be moved to Western LAC during times of trouble, like the case today, without having to weaken the II Corps. So from just having two divisions, IA's LAC ORBAT can climb to 4 divisions, not counting the swing divisions (or IBGs now).
Everything is my speculation though, so don't take it seriously. I can't wait for IA's reorganisation to finish and become public.
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Looks like intel agents and generals are getting information only on defense blogs and forums and then scrambling to plot their strategies. lol
You mean w/o that qualifier you actually thought our ORBAT was being laid bare.
Maintenance of Peace and Tranquility in border areas - MEA
Remember 1962 - Hindi-Chini bhai-bhai .... this MEA's statement is the inverse of 1962 and now it is India's turn to do a 1962 on China ..... Chini-Hindi bhai-bhai
Answer is somewhat here. Don't expect anyone to venture more than what has been ventured here. And this, in my opinion, is also too much
