It will be years before aircraft are delivered.. and a functional squadron and its tactics are developed.. Even if the arms embargo is not extended, the US will try to delay such sales as much as possible..
LOC Flare up: Related news and Discussions
- Thread starter Parul
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What is this new development about
A 707 going in 100 km undetected
A 707 going in 100 km undetected
If Iran buys 40 Su-30SMs this year, they can get all delivered in less than 5 years, perhaps sooner. The same if they buy 40 J-10Cs. In fact, Iran can absorb all 40 J-10s in just 3 years, if not 4. Just having these 80 jets can put PAF on the backfoot since they do not have equally competitive aircraft.
However the pressure starts the moment contracts are signed, and not when the jets are actually received. It's because they have to begin making budget allocations to match that. For example, they will need a new air base near Gwadar, and expand their air base in Quetta with more advanced jets.
A follow-up of the 40+40 jets deals with license production of either one can put even greater pressure. Remember, our main goal is to put as much financial pressure on Pakistan as possible.
With a capable enough air force, Iran's attitude can also change a lot.
Iran doesnt have the money to buy so many Su 30 SMs
Oil prices are very depressed
And Iran has foreign debts to pay
Their first priority is to modernise their oil industry
And then get the economy back on track
Secondly GCC countries will cut deals with Russia to stop this
As you might recall How Israel managed to stop.S 300 deal
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US says will ensure arms embargo on Iran remains | MEO
Iran's financial crisis weakens its coronavirus response
As of May 5, Iran had recorded over 6,000 deaths and nearly 100,000 cases of the novel coronavirus. "It's a very grave situation," says Hadi Kahalzadeh.
www.futurity.org
When the time comes, yes. Is it there yet? Not in my opinion.
When necessary. It works both ways. They can and will hit back in kind. Have no doubts on that or their capability to hit back.
At present, making a large chunk go ga ga ...
I was not clear, I just realised. I meant, I doubt any aircraft went across.
Saudis will provide them money quickly.
Any kind of block on weapons exports now depends on Russia.
Due to CAATSA, the ability to move around it has become extremely difficult for the GCC. Basically, the US doesn't want the Russians to export weapons and Iran to import. And the US is not providing Russia any other market in exchange, like the GCC. The only way for the US to stop Russian exports into Iran is by removing CAATSA, which the US is not going to do. Which is why a Russia-Iran deal is an obvious outcome of American inflexibility at approaching this problem.
A restart of the UNSC sanctions is impossible now. Russia was friendly with the West before Ukraine and Syria, when the sanctions on Iran was imposed. Now the situation has completely changed.
As for payments and oil and stuff, 40 Su-30SMs are cheap, nothing more than $2-2.5B for the whole lot, including extras. And China can be paid off using oil.
Iran's GDP and per capita income are more than twice that of Pakistan's, their external debt is 10 times less than Pakistan's and their forex is 12 times more than Pakistan. Are you really saying they are too poor to afford a small fleet of aircraft?
US says will ensure arms embargo on Iran remains | MEO
middle-east-online.com
Iran's financial crisis weakens its coronavirus response
As of May 5, Iran had recorded over 6,000 deaths and nearly 100,000 cases of the novel coronavirus. "It's a very grave situation," says Hadi Kahalzadeh.
US knocks on a closed door seeking to extend Iran arms embargo - Russia’s UN envoy
The New York Times reported that Washington sought "to pressure the United Nations Security Council to extend an arms embargo on Tehran or see far more stringent sanctions reimposed on the country"
tass.com
I posted your own statement, quite clear, for your own reference.
So, going by your assertion, AWACS has to be over Kashmir to be in position, if it is south of Pir Panjal, it is not in position? So you say it was over North Punjab. Lets place it over North Punjab East of line joing Gurdaspur-Hoshiarpur. Here you go:
There your AWACS over North Punjab. Yeah, not in position when it has a range of 350 kms in radius!
source: Draw a circle with a radius on a map
Wow, so GCI and AWACS are now exclusively or/either and no more and/or systems? Redundancies being ignored, eh?
My dear sir, I remain aware of GCI, AWACS and their relative advantages/limitations as also the equipment in use. And why GCI was primary that day. Where I have absolutely no clue, I hardly post.
Oh, no. You do need to elaborate on this. And of course explain why are you insistent on making India claim ownership of acts that it has no correlation with, which even the neighbouring country has blamed Iran for? Why so insistent on making India seem the supporter of BLA and its blatant acts of terror at times?
Something Big happened,
Radar failure or was it Electronic warfare used by IAF?....☺
App failure of flightradar24
Am not fully in to app failure statement becoz after this incident PAF AWACS and cap also witnessed if it was just a app error why PAF spending million's in fuels to keep these birds round the clock on the air,in their current economic situation. they are not fools to deploy AWACS and fighter caps based on a app error also they have networked AD, so my assumption there may have something happened which public never going to know
I think The 707 used a Route , time and altitude generally used by Cargo or Commercial flights
But when it turned back , it must have made the Pakistanis suspicious
Is it possible that they use a totally false
Call Sign just to check their alertness
It did fly over Pakistan airspace no doubt....error could not be of 100 of Kms. it an ELINT aircraft after all. probably knows how to disguise itself as a civilian aircraft. How difficult it would be for a intelligence gathering plane to disguise itself as a civilian or cargo plane ?
Last year we had launched a Satellite
To Sniff out their Radars
Now if we are sure about which Radars
Are positioned at which place
What is the harm in Testing their Response time and alertness while
Being disguised as a commercial aircraft
If this mission also involved Jamming their Radars , then they will be shocked
I do think they will try to replicate it against India
Our Akash missile might have its first Kill soon
All civ or cargo planes have their own call signs and IDs. Using someone else's call sign is a huge No No in aviation. So there is slim chance that this could have been disguised as a Civ / Cargo plane.
At best it can be set as a chartered flight but even then if Pakistan was not expecting it and it was coming from India it would be treated as hostile.
Flight radar uses MLAT and transponder data. Neither of which are immune to "creative endeavors". Worst case they misread data completely. Best case India spooked data to get a reaction.
do you think every aircraft irrespective of its RCS will be picked up by AWAC out to its max range? What is the range for a fighter sized RCS target?There your AWACS over North Punjab. Yeah, not in position when it has a range of 350 kms in radius!
PAF started getting airborne around 9.40 am first from bases in southern Punjab and this was picked up by GCI and not by AWAC. Why did AWACs fail to pick up these take offs if it was airborne and in station over Punjab. They should have been the first ones to pick up these aircraft and alerted the ADDCs. But we all know even by IAF statement that first pick up was by Ground based radars and not AWACs. Thereafter, the GCI controlled the whole combat which took place around 1015am. so we had over 35 mins from the time when first pick up was done to the time actual combat took place.
The normal practice in IAF is that if an AWAC is airborne, it will control the air situation but if GCI is controlling a situation, they will continue to control it and even if an AWAC becomes available later, GCI will control the air picture till it is safe to handover to AWAC. Mid way thru the battle, the changeover of control is not done. The same is followed by IN for fleet air defence.
We have seen the interview of Sqn. Ldr. Minti Aggarwal in which she had stated that she scrambled more fighters like Mig-21s to bring about some kind of parity in force levels. Once again why did a GCIO order the scamble and not the AWAC? You need to apply your own brain and disect things before blindly listening to officers who may not tell you the complete thruth to you.
I am not a government official and I am posting here as a blogger and nothing more. If I state that India is supporting BLA, does that change the official position of India? Can anyone ever take my posts to be official statements of GOI? You are trying to be politically correct like those sickulars/Librandus of India and you are missing the forest for the trees.
PAF is on CAP from past many days and so is IAF, nothing new there.
A Cargo flight/civilian flight coming from India as soon as it enters Pakistani airspace will have to contact Pakistani ATC and identify itself, no? In case of no response PAF will treat it as hostile and will have complete authority to shoot it down.
Possible solution for Air defence Radars but how will you plan for PAF fighter jets. They too can take a shot, no? And you will test it with one of the large defenseless plane? Why not a drone or low flying sortie of a fighter jet that have some chance to save itself with speed and countermeasures, you know just in case our capability was not as good as we put on theory. We don't send first IOC Tejas for dogfight directly with F16 to test it, do we?
And if you have this capability why will you expose in peace time? This test will be conducted during an operation yielding more kills and surprising enemy which act as another deterrent. When Iran tried attacking US they employed heavy EW tactics resulting in downing of a civilian aircraft, that stopped Iran in its tracks as they didn't knew what else was in store for them, so why will we waste such an important asset by exposing it?
You can spot it on Flightradar App, how much EW capabilities do you think that plane was using that a free app can track it with simplest of tools, something you can install over your house.
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I thought of that. But there are a few issues there.
One would be FATF. If the Pakistanis end up on the blacklist, there is a limit to how much the GCC will be able to help.
Second would be the scale of Iran's modernisation. If Iran signs small deals, then it can be countered, maybe not even required since Iran may not even place the new jets near Pakistan. But if Iran decides on a massive buildup, it's a whole 'nother story altogether. Like a license production deal for a large batch of Su-30s that are more advanced than India's, is not something the GCC will be able to help Pakistan counter.
Third would be India's position in this. Whatever happens now will happen over a sufficiently long period of time. Iran may sign up for a small fly away type deal now and go for license production after a few years, like we did. FATF or no FATF, I don't believe the GCC is going to go around working against the interests of what could be a $4-5T economy by the time all this plays out, riding on the massive oil price crash. We would be less dependent on FDI and FII by then, which reduces American influence over our economy, and we would be more dependent on fuel, thereby giving us more leverage over the GCC. If countries are going around giving free money to Pakistan, we will surely have something to say about it for sure.
