LOC Flare up: Related news and Discussions

[STEPHEN COHEN]

PAF is on CAP from past many days and so is IAF, nothing new there.



A Cargo flight/civilian flight coming from India as soon as it enters Pakistani airspace will have to contact Pakistani ATC and identify itself, no? In case of no response PAF will treat it as hostile and will have complete authority to shoot it down.



Possible solution for Air defence Radars but how will you plan for PAF fighter jets. They too can take a shot, no? And you will test it with one of the large defenseless plane? Why not a drone or low flying sortie of a fighter jet that have some chance to save itself with speed and countermeasures, you know just in case our capability was not as good as we put on theory. We don't send first IOC Tejas for dogfight directly with F16 to test it, do we?

And if you have this capability why will you expose in peace time? This test will be conducted during an operation yielding more kills and surprising enemy which act as another deterrent. When Iran tried attacking US they employed heavy EW tactics resulting in downing of a civilian aircraft, that stopped Iran in its tracks as they didn't knew what else was in store for them, so why will we waste such an important asset by exposing it?

You can spot it on Flightradar App, how much EW capabilities do you think that plane was using that a free app can track it with simplest of tools, something you can install over your house.

Right now the atmosphere is tense

We are just one incident away from war

Both sides are Carrying out CAPs and AWACs flights

So if we can show that we know about
Their AD GES and its Gaps and Capabilities , It will lead them to change and improve some protocols which can then again be picked by by ELINT satellites

It might also involve showing some of our HUMINT capabilities -- Just my wild guess ( Dont kill me , I didnt reveal a secret )

As you might be aware that Israel knew
The Shifts of Syrian Radar operators

It used this info before attacking

After Feb 27 , they were saying that they knew about our AWACs timing and change overs

As far as shooting a Plane is concerned
It has to be positively identified as hostile

What happened with Iranian airliner is another matter because it was directly
Approaching US navy carrier

Here this 707 was using a commercial flight route

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

I thought of that. But there are a few issues there.

One would be FATF. If the Pakistanis end up on the blacklist, there is a limit to how much the GCC will be able to help.

Second would be the scale of Iran's modernisation. If Iran signs small deals, then it can be countered, maybe not even required since Iran may not even place the new jets near Pakistan. But if Iran decides on a massive buildup, it's a whole 'nother story altogether. Like a license production deal for a large batch of Su-30s that are more advanced than India's, is not something the GCC will be able to help Pakistan counter.

Third would be India's position in this. Whatever happens now will happen over a sufficiently long period of time. Iran may sign up for a small fly away type deal now and go for license production after a few years, like we did. FATF or no FATF, I don't believe the GCC is going to go around working against the interests of what could be a $4-5T economy by the time all this plays out, riding on the massive oil price crash. We would be less dependent on FDI and FII by then, which reduces American influence over our economy, and we would be more dependent on fuel, thereby giving us more leverage over the GCC. If countries are going around giving free money to Pakistan, we will surely have something to say about it for sure.

On another note , If US has to choose between Going after China for Corona
Or Going after Iran for its Nuclear ambitions ,What will US chose to do and Why

If US has to contain Iran , it needs some Chinese and Russian cooperation

 

[BlackOpsIndia]

As you might be aware that Israel knew
The Shifts of Syrian Radar operators

It used this info before attacking

We are not Israel, not even close in technology and Pakistan is not Syria.

Israel is fighting for survival, in India one party don't want to fight as it will upset a chunk of their voter, other believes in actions for PR not change. When faced with choice between war face saving, second option was chosen.

So if we can show that we know about
Their AD GES and its Gaps and Capabilities , It will lead them to change and improve some protocols which can then again be picked by by ELINT satellites

If we are aware of gaps in their defence, why will we want them to upgrade to better defences? These gaps will come handy during a conflict, no?

It might also involve showing some of our HUMINT capabilities

Wasting a highly placed asset for "showing off" won't be a wisest thing to do, don't you think?

 

[Nikhil]

@BlackOpsIndia

.A Cargo flight/civilian flight coming from India as soon as it enters Pakistani airspace will have to contact Pakistani ATC and identify itself, no? In case of no response PAF will treat it as hostile and will have complete authority to shoot it down.

Yes and it will identify itself as a civilian or cargo plane with so and so call sign an ID of plane it's disguising. it's a spy plane after all.
this operation could have been planned in advance...does anyone remember Pakistan claiming during 26feb incident that India was using civilian aircraft to shield there attack? What did they mean by that?

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

Wasting a highly placed asset for "showing off" won't be a wisest thing to do, don't you think?

See another example of HUMINT

https://twitter.com/x/status/1260927928994422784

Now this Major General of Pak Army will face some questions

https://twitter.com/x/status/1260912369787600897

One of our dedicated Twitter Warrior
Has got Covid 19

But he is otherwise young and healthy

 

[Nikhil]

We are not Israel, not even close in technology and Pakistan is not Syria.

Israel is fighting for survival, in India one party don't want to fight as it will upset a chunk of their voter, other believes in actions for PR not change. When faced with choice between war face saving, second option was chosen.


If we are aware of gaps in their defence, why will we want them to upgrade to better defences? These gaps will come handy during a conflict, no?


Wasting a highly placed asset for "showing off" won't be a wisest thing to do, don't you think?

It's is an ELINT aircraft which sniff radar. ELINT satellite have it's limitations.
It's a constant battle. it will sniff Pakistani radar take data back, do an analysis. Put it in a threat library to be used by jammers for another balakot. now if it manage to sniff out the good thing.... it's basically game over for Pakistani multi million dollar radar. all it cost us was one daring flight.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1260905155827888128

Main stream Media picking up this story

The OSINT Guy Who posts with the name Anurag Dixit as
@bhootnath on Twitter is still firmly behind This news story

 

[vstol Jockey]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1260905155827888128

Main stream Media picking up this story

The OSINT Guy Who posts with the name Anurag Dixit as
@bhootnath on Twitter is still firmly behind This news story

It is difficult for me to believe this. Pakistan has moved its SAM assets close to border as they are scared of the longer ranged AAMs of the IAF fighter aircraft and the CAPs by PAF are being done much deeper in Pakistan airspace. This movement of SAMs closer to the border shows the defensive mindset of Pakistan. I am very sure that nothing of this kind happened and if it did, than we need to thank Pakistan for not shooting down this aircraft as that would have given India a chance to start a war. They do not seem to have a stomach for war right now.

 

[Sulla84]

When Iran tried attacking US they employed heavy EW tactics resulting in downing of a civilian aircraft,

Well. The poor Americans' base got hit with high precision ballistic (not cruise) missiles.. that caught the americans by surprise... with so many military bases in the vicinity, and questionable efficacy of american AD systems, I would say both Iran and America were mutually deterred, and US did not hit back after attack on al assad base..

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

Well. The poor Americans' base got hit with high precision ballistic (not cruise) missiles.. that caught the americans by surprise... with so many military bases in the vicinity, and questionable efficacy of american AD systems, I would say both Iran and America were mutually deterred, and US did not hit back after attack on al assad base..

Iran's aim is to scare the Gulf allies of USA ie GCC countries with its Ballistic missiles.

And thus prevent US military action
Against itself

 

[BlackOpsIndia]

it's basically game over for Pakistani multi million dollar radar. all it cost us was one daring flight.

It's is an ELINT aircraft which sniff radar.

How much this ELINT Aircraft cost btw?

. that caught the americans by surprise..

A military based caught by surprise attack of not one but dozens of ballistic missiles will have how many KIA? How many happened? Surprise?

Anyway post was about EW capabilities and their use to shock and awe enemy when it matters make them to commit mistake and take away their faith on tried and tested weapon systems.

 

[vvabhiram]

It is difficult for me to believe this. Pakistan has moved its SAM assets close to border as they are scared of the longer ranged AAMs of the IAF fighter aircraft and the CAPs by PAF are being done much deeper in Pakistan airspace.

Is Astra BVRAAM used in combat patrols or some other Russian missile ?

 

[Jaymax]

@BlackOpsIndia

Yes and it will identify itself as a civilian or cargo plane with so and so call sign an ID of plane it's disguising. it's a spy plane after all.
this operation could have been planned in advance...does anyone remember Pakistan claiming during 26feb incident that India was using civilian aircraft to shield there attack? What did they mean by that?

Lets assume that India is using Civil aircraft to shield the intrusion. Why would the transponder data be different - the transponder data should be from a civil craft as well.

More importantly if actually have an ace in our hand, why blow it for a mere stunt instead of using it in war ... sneak a plane over Gujranwala and launch ALCMs at GHQ in a sudden strike with no warning.

Is Astra BVRAAM used in combat patrols or some other Russian missile ?

Not sure if Astra is in service yet. @Falcon care to comment?

 

[Hellfire]

Am not fully in to app failure statement becoz after this incident PAF AWACS and cap also witnessed if it was just a app error why PAF spending million's in fuels to keep these birds round the clock on the air,in their current economic situation. they are not fools to deploy AWACS and fighter caps based on a app error also they have networked AD, so my assumption there may have something happened which public never going to know

Well, any aircraft which is identified as military aircraft, is automatically tracked. So, unlikely that IAF aircraft would have moved in without evoking a reaction.

Their economic situation has nothing to do here as Aviation is anyways down and they have fuel spare. Earlier, they did not have fuel.

 

[Sathya]

Pakistanis who make such statements dont get just how insulting it is to their fallen troops, these cheap words of false bravado coming from uncouth mouths of ignorant idiots. People like you have no idea what situation your troops were in towards end of June.

Around 2 weeks after the Muntho Dhalo air strike, Indian soldiers began to stumble upon emaciated bodies of Pakistani troops who had recently been killed in battles. Doctors found sugar blocks, solid snow & even mud from their stomachs upon autopsy. It was obvious they hadnt had anything to eat or in some cases even drink for several days, if not weeks. They couldnt melt snow for fear of being detected. They had also received no reinforcements. We knew radio intercepts that the Muntho Dhalo strike had crippled Pakistani logistics, but didnt realize until then the sheer severity of consequences on PA units on the occupied post. They were severely weakened, and while they tried to hold on, it was obvious they couldnt combat or even retreat. In fact some units were so severely weakened by hunger that they couldn't carry out the orders to retreat. They would die where they stood, either through hunger, or through our bullets and shells.

We offered PA to recognize them as PA troops, and therefore be allowed a respectable retreat. PA general staff refused to acknowledge. As such they were terrorists in Indian territory, legitimate targets to be slaughtered either while retreating, or where they stood. There was no mercy shown by our gunners.

Go and tell your stories of fake bravado to these men in their graves. Tell them how they were on the verge of victory, how abandoned by their HQ, out of ammunition, out of men, out of food, out of water, they were going to take on well rested, well equipped, well fed troops supported by air and artillery. Some of their last transmission were requests for food and water. Some kept begging for reinforcements till they were killed, the voices getting more frantic as they saw Indian troops close in, the indian artillery ranging in. Some accepted their fates, calling up HQs one last time with messages to their loved ones and telling their officers that they were too weak from hunger and/or surrounded by Indian troops to attempt a retreat.

This description is better than the best war movies I ve seen.

Must be the perspective of someone who had experienced more action and deaths.. To rise above the life and death.

 

[Hellfire]

do you think every aircraft irrespective of its RCS will be picked up by AWAC out to its max range? What is the range for a fighter sized RCS target?

Sirji, the operators in the A-50 ex 50 Sqn IAF that day are not fools that they don't know their job and you know their job better than them. You think they are so stupid that they do not track the airfields, where you can detect take off or do you think that PAF took off from hillsides through thickset forest?

Please.

PAF started getting airborne around 9.40 am first from bases in southern Punjab and this was picked up by GCI and not by AWAC.

Oh, please. Only Snehesh Alex Philips got the timings more or less correct and so did Prasun.

First pair of PAF aircrafts took off at 0855 am. It was followed a few minutes later by another pair taking off from another airfield. They spaced out their take offs and geographic locations so that a large flight of aircrafts did not take to air in one go, creating a flagged move immediately. This was picked up both by GCI and AWACS. By 0920 or so, everything was clear as a large aircraft formation began taking shape over their side by 0925. By 0927-0929, orders for ORPs were issued. Primary was with GCI as their appreciation of threats in low lying valleys was better for low flying aircrafts (and another reason which is not meant for public release). It was not because AWACS failed to detect flights. The ORPs were in position by 0945 am. And then the protocol was followed of warning the PAF aircrafts twice to make them change course.

Why did AWACs fail to pick up these take offs if it was airborne and in station over Punjab. They should have been the first ones to pick up these aircraft and alerted the ADDCs. But we all know even by IAF statement that first pick up was by Ground based radars and not AWACs.

Can you cite me where IAF has said that Ground Based Radars picked up the flight and AWACS did not?

The normal practice in IAF is that if an AWAC is airborne, it will control the air situation

Incorrect. No hard and fast rule. You can check for yourself. And keep it to yourself.

We have seen the interview of Sqn. Ldr. Minti Aggarwal in which she had stated that she scrambled more fighters like Mig-21s to bring about some kind of parity in force levels. Once again why did a GCIO order the scamble and not the AWAC? You need to apply your own brain and disect things before blindly listening to officers who may not tell you the complete thruth to you.

I don't need information from second hand sources

I get from the first hand sources.... you hung your boots long back … so I suggest, always remember that your cohort is not the executor.

If AWACS did not get any data, how the hell is the aircraft which was shot down, tracked from its airfield of origin? Any ideas?

I am not a government official and I am posting here as a blogger and nothing more. If I state that India is supporting BLA, does that change the official position of India? Can anyone ever take my posts to be official statements of GOI? You are trying to be politically correct like those sickulars/Librandus of India and you are missing the forest for the trees.

I am not being politically correct.

Like I have often said - I never comment on things I have not dealt with, trained at or been formally educated with.

Suggest find out about Ex Jalprahar 2 and its real mission in Dec 2016 ... just for a tidbit for you to work out.

My last words on this.

You have not dealt on this aspect, I have. Try and find me commenting on employment of a SSN ..

 

[Hellfire]

I thought of that. But there are a few issues there.

One would be FATF. If the Pakistanis end up on the blacklist, there is a limit to how much the GCC will be able to help.

Second would be the scale of Iran's modernisation. If Iran signs small deals, then it can be countered, maybe not even required since Iran may not even place the new jets near Pakistan. But if Iran decides on a massive buildup, it's a whole 'nother story altogether. Like a license production deal for a large batch of Su-30s that are more advanced than India's, is not something the GCC will be able to help Pakistan counter.

Third would be India's position in this. Whatever happens now will happen over a sufficiently long period of time. Iran may sign up for a small fly away type deal now and go for license production after a few years, like we did. FATF or no FATF, I don't believe the GCC is going to go around working against the interests of what could be a $4-5T economy by the time all this plays out, riding on the massive oil price crash. We would be less dependent on FDI and FII by then, which reduces American influence over our economy, and we would be more dependent on fuel, thereby giving us more leverage over the GCC. If countries are going around giving free money to Pakistan, we will surely have something to say about it for sure.

1. Won't land in FATF blacklist. That is pretty much a given.

2. Iran does not have the resources to undergo changes of large magnitude. Saudis have.

3. Leverage over Pakistan. Saudis will never leave a chance to gain that over Pakistan.


What I have been trying to drive in to the fanboys and fangirls over the past few days.

Saudis act through Sunni Baluch groups which operate in Sistan. Iran retaliates using BLA etc who also get help from Afghanistan. India piggybacks, like the times of support to Northern Alliance. We use our soft power here to meet our objectives.

Unfortunately, people are happy claiming things that are simply not there.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

Sirji, the operators in the A-50 ex 50 Sqn IAF that day are not fools that they don't know their job and you know their job better than them. You think they are so stupid that they do not track the airfields, where you can detect take off or do you think that PAF took off from hillsides through thickset forest?

Please.




Oh, please. Only Snehesh Alex Philips got the timings more or less correct and so did Prasun.

First pair of PAF aircrafts took off at 0855 am. It was followed a few minutes later by another pair taking off from another airfield. They spaced out their take offs and geographic locations so that a large flight of aircrafts did not take to air in one go, creating a flagged move immediately. This was picked up both by GCI and AWACS. By 0920 or so, everything was clear as a large aircraft formation began taking shape over their side by 0925. By 0927-0929, orders for ORPs were issued. Primary was with GCI as their appreciation of threats in low lying valleys was better for low flying aircrafts (and another reason which is not meant for public release). It was not because AWACS failed to detect flights. The ORPs were in position by 0945 am. And then the protocol was followed of warning the PAF aircrafts twice to make them change course.




Can you cite me where IAF has said that Ground Based Radars picked up the flight and AWACS did not?




Incorrect. No hard and fast rule. You can check for yourself. And keep it to yourself.




I don't need information from second hand sources

I get from the first hand sources.... you hung your boots long back … so I suggest, always remember that your cohort is not the executor.

If AWACS did not get any data, how the hell is the aircraft which was shot down, tracked from its airfield of origin? Any ideas?



I am not being politically correct.

Like I have often said - I never comment on things I have not dealt with, trained at or been formally educated with.

Suggest find out about Ex Jalprahar 2 and its real mission in Dec 2016 ... just for a tidbit for you to work out.

My last words on this.

You have not dealt on this aspect, I have. Try and find me commenting on employment of a SSN ..

Sir ji

For us civilians please just answer One question

Whether Indian Govt and Military
Will DO Something about Pakistan in next 4 years

It is really no use to talk about Classified and Undeclared missions if they dont bring about a Fundamental change to this 7 decade old problem

Once Modi goes , No matter what is the
Differential in Combat Ability between
The 2 countries , Pakistan will sit back and enjoy as it did in MMS era

 

[Sathya]

Sir ji

For us civilians please just answer One question

Whether Indian Govt and Military
Will DO Something about Pakistan in next 4 years

It is really no use to talk about Classified and Undeclared missions if they dont bring about a Fundamental change to this 7 decade old problem

Once Modi goes , No matter what is the
Differential in Combat Ability between
The 2 countries , Pakistan will sit back and enjoy as it did in MMS era

With Corona not even over, 2 months of lockdown gone already..
Cases piling up.. We may even cross US case numbers,

You still think we ll act?

I ll be happy if they make payment for signed weapon deals..

Haven't you read that ALH is considered for Navy primarily because we are not sure whether we can pay up for the deal fully..

With HAL, they can defer payment and cut the numbers or anything.. Like that.

So I am very sure, India on its own won't act. .

 

[Sulla84]

A military based caught by surprise attack of not one but dozens of ballistic missiles will have how many KIA? How many happened? Surprise?

The surprise part was the accuracy of Iranian ballistic missiles. The Americans were given enough warning so that they would cover beneath Saddam era sheds.. Still more than a 100 suffered brain injuries.. and concussions and 29 were awarded purple hearts.. lol.. It was no more the era where US soldiers could snore off, being content that Saddam's scuds would just fly overhead because Moslems couldn't master accurate ballistic missiles...