I believe that Pakistan has to simply Ride Out the Modi Era and then they will again be back in the " Talk Peace and Stab suddenly " Business
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I believe that Pakistan has to simply Ride Out the Modi Era and then they will again be back in the " Talk Peace and Stab suddenly " Business
Strengthen counter-infiltration grid by moving 10 RR battalions from terror operations
If India’s only strategy is to militarily manage insurgency from Pakistan in Kashmir, then our counter-infiltration certainly needs a review.
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I have a feeling that before Doval retires, he will ensure that we take back POJK. It has been his agenda right from Vivekananda foundation. You see his speeches on youtube.
I am happy the way govt is dealing with Pakistan these days......Motor mouths are quiet, PM literally ignores his counter part's rants....... Now ministers are also ignoring Pak, I dont remember Jaisankar making any comment of Pakistan....... So the strategy is clear....... Let us ignore them, and dont give them the scope to respond...... Let the guns do the talking when needed......
Look at the number of statements made from Pak in recent times, which gives you an idea how they have suffered.......
Things are not as cool as it sounds around that area...... Rest all can guess......@falcon
Look at the number of statements made from Pak in recent times, which gives you an idea how they have suffered.......
Things are not as cool as it sounds around that area...... Rest all can guess......@falcon
Take this as a warning!!!!!
We are serious about the quality of discussions...... You can be as proud as your supposedly ancestors.... Not the point of discussion here,..... We welcome different views and opinions, as that is the base of any discussion or debate...... But not at the cost of quality of discussion.....
Improve your post quality,
There is a warning for everyone, which is posted..... The reason for specific to you, as i have been going thru the discourse here..... We are serious about the quality of discussion, cannot go the level of the other place which i dont want to name......
Strengthen counter-infiltration grid by moving 10 RR battalions from terror operations
If India’s only strategy is to militarily manage insurgency from Pakistan in Kashmir, then our counter-infiltration certainly needs a review.
Broadly, fair enough points. I have a slight variation to this in my mind.
We already have a three layered Anti Infiltration grid
Withdrawl of RR from the hinterland will weaken the CASO in the hinterland
The best way to punish Pakistan for infiltration is to cause massive material losses and killing their soldiers through High Volume of artillery fire assaults
And also restart Air attacks
What General Panag is suggesting a defensive approach which will not hurt
Pakistan
It really depends, since we do not know what the actual risks are.
If the jihadis cannot be stopped, then do we want a nuclear-armed Paxstan sending jihadis or do we want a non-nuclear country sending armed jihadis? So the question is, is Paxstan's growing nuclear arsenal a bigger threat to us? Today they have 100-150 nukes, in 20 years they could have a thousand. Do we want such a country as a perpetual enemy? So should we nip it in the bud now or let it grow and fester and become a bigger headache later on?
As for costs in particular, what costs are we referring to exactly? Is it money or men? When it comes to money, it's obvious that most of our current military orbat will become entirely useless once Paxtan is balkanised. We definitely do not need the 3 SCs, we can definitely reduce the strength of the other corps facing Paxstan to less than half, or even 2/3rds. Our total requirement for aircraft will also reduce or relocated elsewhere. Post-war defence spending will also drop. We will most definitely see significant amount of long term savings.
As for men, yeah, during the initial days and during the occupation years, we will see significant casualties. However, during the occupation years, if we balkanise Paxtan into 4 states, then we build 4 bases in each state, place an IBG in each, alongside special forces and aircraft. This will become part of our "permanent" presence in the region, with full control over the entirety of ex-Paxstan's air space. In the meantime, raise an army in each state with officers and soldiers that do not share the views of the fundamentalists due to their own ideology, and equipped specifically to deal with an insurgency. This is easy. Raise regiments similar in structure to the ones in India. Raise a shia regiment, a sunni regiment, perhaps even smaller, raise a Barelvi regiment, an Ismaili regiment etc. Root out the salafi ideology from these armies, deny service options to certain sects that are vulnerable to the salafi ideology. Basically a martial race type system. This force is going to be the cannon fodder force that will soak up the damage when necessary. This will allow us to reduce out actual strength to just a few tens of thousands, which can be used for important operations. So the long term casualties will be very low for us.
As for an insurgency, yeah, we can't change the hearts and minds of people with a gun to their heads, but we sure as hell can make them sit in a corner. For an insurgency, you need a base of operations, a place for assembly and training. Why should we allow them such a safe space in any part of ex-Paxtan? One can freely assume that by the time the occupation force is done with its work in about 5-10 years, Paxtan will be free of major indigenous insurgencies, and will have moved into other countries, and that's only Afghanistan and Iran. And I don't believe either country is going to operate against Indian interests. The Afghans at the very least will cooperate with Indian forces. We can even extend COIN ops into Afghanistan with the support of the Afghan govt.
As for combating the insurgency, it should be completely different from the way we deal with in Kashmir. For one, use excessive amounts of air power. By the time all this plays out, one can assume that precision bombing will have advanced to the point where even individuals can be targeted in a crowd. I remember the Israelis did something similar when they killed a terrorist riding a motorbike from the air without affecting other vehicles. So the technology for it already exists. What we really need is a significant amount of drones in the air carrying a lot of firepower and can reach any affected area within minutes. So we need quite a few drone bases with a combination of MALE UCAVs with a quick response time and another type of drone that is designed for shorter endurance but with a large payload that can be scrambled on demand, like a cheap unmanned fighter jet, something like the Combat Hawk.
Second would be to better equip troops, the cannon fodder troops. Better gear, better comm, better rations etc than the insurgents. And also better support from the air and ground. All those battle tanks and APCs left behind by the PA, also our own tanks and IFVs that are of little use anymore, can be transferred to the new armies in adequate numbers. Afghanistan's high casualty rates are due to the lack of suffucient support from the air and ground, we can fix that in our case. Once the casualty rate of insurgents reaches an unacceptable amount and they lose their base of operations, the insurgency will die out. We have seen that happen with ISIS already. In the long run, I don't believe the insurgency will reach India.
Right now, the cost is low because we are actually doing very little on the ground relative to the scale of the insurgency. What will happen in case Paxstan also starts growing its economy very well? Is it really worth it to have a perpetual nuclear-armed enemy that will also be a rich country 20 or 30 years from now? What's the guarantee Paxstan will never get a mad man at the helm?
So, in the end, do we want a nuclear-armed Paxtan's jihadis or just a normal insurgency? Cost is relative to the threat. And one of those is not an existential threat (at least cannot do a crippling amount of damage).
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Agree there is no point in just keep becoming defensive and incurring more cost. Rats will find new ways to infiltrate any way. We need to increase the economic cost of terrorism for enemy, thats the only thing thats going to have effect. pakistan resorts to terrorism bcos it is low cost and can get away with it. Only thing is that we need to do it subtly.
That's the problem when people shoot without thinking. All the rats are in Pakistan, not in Kashmir.
We have to start with simple Do able steps before stepping up the ladder
I think that Taliban success in Afghanistan will embolden Pakistan
And give us the Casus Belli
Right now Pakistanis are dreaming of using Afghan Taliban to get Kashmir
exactly , first we must enhance our capability , start small & simple , master it and then gradually increase the stakes. we are planning for mars when we havent even stepped on the moon.
If you had done that probably you would not have gone on a wild ride of imagination with no brakes. First you need to get facts right and then plan. There are proxy rats in kashmir which need to be dealt, you must have already noticed hurriyat has gone nearly silent. We still got jamaat rats which occupy the pulpits in mosques unless you take that pole position from them there is no point in planning other stuff.
There are no rats or proxy rats in Kashmir. There are only rat droppings. No matter how many you clear away, more droppings will take its place. Unless you kill the rats the droppings won't go away. But all the rats are across the border.
It's clear you haven't understood my post, so why comment on it?
We don't have to do anything now, or even in 2025. It's post 2025 that we have to worry about.
Well thats your assumption you are not providing any facts but simply peddling thin air theories. The very fact that infiltrators get protection,support and move around in kashmir means theres still work to be done.
All rat droppings. They can all be easily replaced. It's not difficult to find new people who will provide such support. There are a grand total of zero rats in Kashmir, all have been more or less caught or killed. There are only 100-200 droppings left in the valley.
If you want the rats, go up to the LoC and look across. The infestation is over there.
thats unfinished work, every time stone pelting happens , rats are able to infiltrate and move around job is not finished yet.
You can expect the Pakistani economy to stabilise and move towards a high growth trajectory allowing them to modernise their military.
But at the same time, IA will have finished its modernisation, including the reorganisation reforms, more or less, making it fully ready to take on any adversary in the modern setting.
And 2025 and 2035 is the best time to take out Pakistan, ie, before China becomes a major threat to India.