Of course any sane person will understand the devastating impact of rising extremism in a majority group.
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Thats why I wrote
Only solution is (if at all we need PoK back at all cost)-
Not willing to pay this cost, then stop day dreaming beating a combo of two nuclear capable countries and taking back territories they control.
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This thread has gone Totally Off Topic , all the posts in the last few pages should be moved to a New Thread
Titled
" India's Geopolitical Environment and our Military Options "
You are talking about distant future I am talking about immediate plan. Any stability in GB will only give pakistan more breathing space. We need to put them in a spot. This all or nothing is never going to work. Whatever we do there will always be some -ve elements which will create disturbance. In which case it is better to have our proxies which can be manipulated rather than fight the unknown.
If you are afraid of fighting a war and all your plans are just keep building up then we are no different than being a paper tiger which will not get any respect or attention.
Any sort of extremism will be a disaster we need stability for economic growth. More ever whichever extremism it is foreign powers will take advantage of it to destabilize the country.
Once it goes bad, there's no going back. Look at BD. It's already a lost cause.
Why has China waited 40 years? Can you tell me? They are still waiting for 10 more years. So that makes it 50. So why 50 years?
While we can keep preparing for a Future Large scale conflict , and we must keep doing so BUT at the same time we need to be prepared for a Sudden intense Skirmish like Balakot
And Galwan
Infact Both Balakot and Galwan can happen simultaneously Next Summer
Any sane person wont just read Wire/New york times/NDTV to come to such conclusion .
We are prepared for that. Today, we can do anything short of all-out war.
chinese have already captured most of the major territory, other than those given away to russia. Fight with western powers is for hegemony not for territory they can afford to wait.
Thats not the case with India, if we wait for another 10 years china will be more powerful than it is now. If we cant push back china now we will not able to do it later either. It is just like India vs pakistan pre 1971.
You must be totally naive to believe that India will get progressively stronger as years progress thats way too optimistic by a large margin. Our progress has been absolutely dismal and in another 10 years once chinese currency stands along with dollar, they will back pakistan to the hilt and keep us down.
Win or loss we should take the first step or get surprised later, we need to have control over things. In another 10 years its not only land border that chinese might challenge us but even on sea as well. A stitch in time saves nine.
Large scale conflict will not take place , major powers will immediately intervene. Whoever makes the move or takes the other by surprise and makes initial gains wins. For a smaller power it makes a lot of sense to take the initiative and control the course of war. If we keep waiting for them to attack us then we have lost half the war as they will control how the war goes.
Everything they are doing is for territory. Would recommend looking up the borders of the Qing Empire and compare that to modern China's today.
The comparative power balance will shrink between India and China the more time passes. So the more we wait the better for us.
Umm... Let me rephrase...
You must be totally naive to believe that China will get progressively stronger as years progress thats way too optimistic by a large margin.
See what I did there?
In 10 years, we will be better placed to challenge the Chinese, even at sea, than we are today. If it wasn't for the USN, we wouldn't be able to compete with China today.
Our problem is not China , it is Chinese support to Pakistan
Pakistan is willing to suffer casualties and even loss of face in a limited war
China has not shown any such inclination post Galwan
China enjoys showing off its military strength ie Naval presence in Indian ocean , Air bases in Pakistan , New technology in Swarm drones , Cyber warfare , Artificial Intelligence
It wants to be the dominant power by 2030 and then bully other nations
Into accepting its supremacy
So we have two different challenges
With Both Pakistan and China and then
Both of them cooperating
Since we cannot match Chinese spending , we really need an alliance with USA
When two people are fighting, a third person shouldn't join in, especially when the person we are supporting is much stronger. Let US deal with China how they want to, we shouldn't get into it.
If US is really willing to help India Technologically , in facing upto China
Then we must give up our ideological
"Tantrums " and accept an alliance
What US really wants and is willing to do will be known when Biden takes over
These next four years will define whether US remains and
"Wants to remain " as the Number 1 superpower or will it tie itself up into self imposed constraints
They have no interest in giving us technology. They will only sell us stuff they will export, they already told us that, which was the point of DTI. They don't give tech even to their closest allies.
China can't threaten US power for at least 15-20 years, up to 2040. They need a full generation switch in technology along with surpassing the US economy by a significant margin, I suppose at least 3 times as big, in order to offset the US plus allies. They will at best become only a peer power within that time.
The next 10 years, by 2050, not just India, but even countries like Indonesia, Vietnam and Philippines will become powerful countries given their respective populations and economic growth. For example, Indonesia is expected to have a population of 300 million and a GDP that's 1/3rd that of the US by 2050. It will be top 5 global economic power. Vietnam and Phillipines are expected to have populations of 110 million and 150 million by then, which are similar to Russia and Japan. So their combined population of 550 million versus China's expected 1.1 billion will allow them to become peer adversaries to China. It's not so easy for the Chinese to supress their immediate neighbours alone, let alone India.
You don't have to worry so much about the Chinese. The world's headed towards a multipolar order. There are going to be at least 8 heavyweights; US, China, India, EU, ASEAN, Russia, Brazil, African Union and Mexico. There's unlikely to be another lone hyperpower like the US at least this century.
There is no such thing as multipolar world for the foreseeable future there are only countries which will switch alliances between US and China. None of the countries you have mentioned have ability to project power beyond their shores.
Frankly population & economy is useless on the world stage if you cant move beyond your shores and influence some other country. Very fact that european countries that have less population than most of the countries in the world but still able to exercise much greater influence than their size is testimony to that. This population which is equated to better manpower and economy more capacity to buy/spend is measured from western perspective who assume other countries will be just like them is simply not true. It is like comparing lions vs hyenas.
China is drawing India into an expensive Arms Race which will hurt our Socio Economic development
Just like USA did to USSR
And then the internal " fissiparous forces " will get a huge boost
No matter how much we spend
We cannot MATCH China in
Buying Ship for Ship or Plane for Plane -- Contest
This is just the first year of our Cold War with China
And so we need An alliance with USA
If we want to prevent Bankruptcy
China's preparing to enter an arms race with the US. We are not a player.
What is an alliance?