Okay, this is how it goes, Rafale F1/2/3 were configured in the late 80s for a post 2000 world, the F3+ was configured in the late 90s for a post 2010 world. The F-35 was configured in the 2000s for a post 2020 world. So, the avionics in its basic capabilities today, the F-35 beats the Rafale F3R. This is what was demonstrated in the Swiss evals. Otoh, the F4 was configured in the late 2010s for a post 2030 world. In this case, the F4 will surpass the F-35's current set of avionics. The F4 catches up with the F-35's avionics with newer hardware, like GaN, and then adds even more features.
So, when it comes to avionics, different builds will give us different results in competitions. It's only a question of which build is chosen by which air force. The Swiss seem to have chosen F3R for their evaluation since they were looking at what's operational today rather than what they will operate at the time of delivery, whereas the Finnish seem to be evaluating the F4.2 because they want what they will actually operate at the time of delivery. India had chosen the first method for MMRCA too. So it's a choice between low risk and high risk. The IAF had chosen FGFA for its high risk component, and the Finnish may be choosing the F4.2 as their high risk component.
Now the question is whether the F4.2 matches up to or exceeds the F-35's overall capabilities. We already know the Rafale's performance, particularly in A2A, is significantly superior to the F-35, and we know that once the F4.2 comes online, it's going to be a step up over the F-35. With high agility, supercruise and avionics in the future Rafale's favour, the main parameter now is survivability using stealth.
The F-35 gets its stealth using passive means, it uses shaping and RAM/RAS combo for stealth. As per open source info, 60-70% of it comes through shaping, the rest through RAM/RAS, a huge improvement over the F-22's 95% dependency on shaping alone. Otoh, the Rafale uses active means by way of destroying the radar waves themselves using destructive interference. That's pretty much 100% through electronic means alone.
Now, what the French say is, while active cancellation has been in the Rafale since the beginning, it is going into the LO/VLO area with the F4. As of 2020, the frontal RCS of a prototype is said to be in the 0.0001m2 class clean, the size of a sparrow, although Picdel says it drops by a magnitude to 0.001-0.01m2, the size of a large bird, with external weapons. Naturally, this will see improvements over time. Otoh, the F-35's stealth, which is fixed, will degrade over time, likely even eliminated. So what's important to the Finnish is what the F-35's stealth capabilities will be in comparison to the Rafale in 2030, the most relevant year for the Finnish.
Hence the eager wait for the Finnish results. Their way of evaluations, especially by making the final choice purely on tech specs alone, should end the debate once and for all. Whether the Rafale is better or worse than the F-35, we will know for sure, to the full extent of what's considered open source, by the end of next month.
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