Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning and F-22 'Raptor' : News & Discussion

Did you know the F-35 had completed SDD and finished its physical testing for FRP, in 2018? It's a computer sim that held it up longer

Er... No. There are still 873 deficiencies remaining. They are apparently gonna ignore many of those for FRP.

And it also means the avionics needs upgrades, like GaN. So add more to the delays.

Just a quick quiz.... if they can build 156 a year now and 156 a year FRP. What is the advantage to US and non-US buyers with FRP?

The 156 is meant for FRP. Deliveries at that number will begin with the initial Block 4 from 2026.
5 lots, 780 jets from 2026-30. And this doesn't take into account delays in deliveries, like the last 5 months.

The F-35 line was made for 400+ a year, just like the F-16. Post FRP, the USAF alone can buy 200+ a year if necessary, 'cause both Russia and China will be buying 200-300 jets a year.
 
Initial F-35 schedule
Initial-F-35-schedule.jpg

More potential for delays with all the new upgrades planned.

There is a core upgrade planned.
Earlier this week, the DoD announced it would award multiple follow-on contracts to extend Pratt & Whitney's work in supplying engines solely for the next seven years. These contracts are for the "Engine Core Upgrade" program, and they are set to commence a few months into the fiscal year 2024, running until the end of 2031.

So, I guess production jets from 2024 onwards (Lot 16) will have these new engines. Could be Growth Option 1.0.

Other upgrades too.
Lot 16 aircraft arriving in 2024 and 2025 come with a three times more powerful electronic warfare (EW) processor. And Lot 17 fighters will be delivered after 2025 bristling with 20 EW receivers, a 75% increase, to dramatically boost signal coverage and accuracy.

Lot 17 F-35s will include APG-85 radars.


So, these upgrades could pave the way for a new Block 4 configuration after 2024.
 
@Optimist

The U.S. military, meanwhile, has indicated it will stick close to its fiscal year 2024 plan of buying 83 F-35s—48 for the Air Force, 19 for the Navy and 16 for the Marine Corps—for a while.

48 a year isn't enough to compete with peer competitors.
 
Er... No. There are still 873 deficiencies remaining. They are apparently gonna ignore many of those for FRP.

And it also means the avionics needs upgrades, like GaN. So add more to the delays.



The 156 is meant for FRP. Deliveries at that number will begin with the initial Block 4 from 2026.
5 lots, 780 jets from 2026-30. And this doesn't take into account delays in deliveries, like the last 5 months.

The F-35 line was made for 400+ a year, just like the F-16. Post FRP, the USAF alone can buy 200+ a year if necessary, 'cause both Russia and China will be buying 200-300 jets a year.
1. You are wrong
2. FRP is based on 3F
3. It doesn't matter to FMS whether it is FRP, as they can multiyear order. With the US, they can only multiyear order when in FRP.
 
1. You are wrong
2. FRP is based on 3F
3. It doesn't matter to FMS whether it is FRP, as they can multiyear order. With the US, they can only multiyear order when in FRP.

1. No. I am merely analyzing what the US themselves have released. You just don't comprehend what's being said.

2. FRP clearance is based on 3F (2023-24), but bulk deliveries are based on 4A (2026-30).

3. I have made zero references to exports. Only the USAF matters. All others could be flying F-16s for all I care. It would make very little difference what the others fly as long as the USAF has completely degraded enemy air. It's why only the US, France and India matter. The rest are participants. And of the 3, only France can afford to lose. Pretty much everybody else literally do not matter. That makes the USAF's contract the most consequential. And 48 isn't enough.
 

Lockheed F-35’s Upgrade Overrun Risks Topping $1 Billion, Top Lawmaker Says

(Bloomberg) -- A cost overrun to upgrade the cockpit computer on Lockheed Martin Corp.’s F-35 is projected to hit almost $1 billion next year if delivery delays persist, according to the top House lawmaker overseeing the world’s most expensive weapons program.

What started out as a $718 million contract in 2018 to develop a major upgrade for the fighter jet increased last year by $680 million. Now, “regrettably, we acknowledge an additional cost increase of around $225 million,” Representative Rob Wittman, a Virginia Republican who chairs the House Armed Services panel on aircraft, said in a statement to Bloomberg News.

That $905 million overrun will increase by $20 million to $24 million each month if deliveries of planes equipped with the upgrade, known as TR-3, don’t start by next June as the Pentagon hopes, according to Wittman, who is holding a hearing Tuesday on the F-35.

The combat aircraft needs a hardware and software upgrade before it can carry more precise weapons and gather more information on enemy aircraft and air defenses. It will increase processing power 37 times and memory 20 times over the F-35’s current capabilities.

US taxpayers and allied nations that buy the fighter jet will absorb the cost of the entire overrun under terms of the “cost-plus development” contract. But Lockheed, the largest US defense contractor, forfeited $60 million in profit for an earlier overrun and isn’t receiving any profit for the remaining upgrade work, the Pentagon’s F-35 program office said last year.

Earlier: Crucial F-35 Computing Upgrade Sees New Cost Overrun and Delay

Russell Goemaere, spokesman for the program office, said “we agree with Representative Wittman’s comments on the overrun.”

The first deployment of F-35s with the upgrade was to begin last January, and delays have affected squadrons waiting for the changes, Wittman said. The program office now projects those could start next April to June depending on test progress.

Wittman said Lockheed and L3Harris, its major subcontractor on the TR-3 upgrade, “are facing challenges in developing reliable software for the new hardware.”

“Over the past few months, we began testing the next software release that will improve stability, radar and weapons capability,” Lockheed said in a statement. “We also began test flights using TR-3 software on F-35 production jets in Fort Worth, and flight test continues at Edwards Air Force Base and Naval Air Station Patuxent River.”

“As of early December, we have completed more than 160 flights” and “remain focused on expediting hardware delivery from our subcontractors that will be integrated with TR-3,” it said.
 
So whether it's a disaster or not depends on how you look at it. If we consider early build F-35As, say 200 jets, versus 152 Rafale F4, and assume that these jets will be largely irrelevant from 2034 onwards relative to adversary capabilities. And if we assume both US and France will replace these jets 1-to-1 with newer jets, B5, F6 etc, then it will just take 2.5 years for the USAF but 14-15 years for France.

And you have to wonder that if by 2035 the USAF has those 300 advanced F-35As and 200 NGADs, the Russians will work to counter those. So the question France should be asking is if those 97 F5s will be enough instead of 225 F5s. So, even after screwing up the F-35, the USAF will still be in a better position than France in 2035. Of course, if the USAF conducts more than 90% of the primary missions against Russia, then 97 is enough.
Your reasoning completely overlooks the value of the Rafale F4, but by the time the F5 arrives, the F4 will already be a very powerful system with the same capabilities as the F5, except in terms of detection, where the F5 will be superior. But the F4 Rafales will be able to integrate into the F5 network and take advantage of the situation awarness of the network, which means that an F4 Rafale in the network will be a very significant reinforcement of it. So we will have 225 Rafales against Russia, not 97, and each of these 225 Rafales could be accompanied by 4 unmanned aerial vehicles.
Only the initial lot cannot be upgraded though, quite a few of the 300 can be upgraded. I don't know from which Lot, but they have been making B4 ready jets. B4 like Rafale F4 is primarily a software program. The only question is when P&W will deliver engine upgrades and if older jets will get the upgrades soon or not.
Yes, it's a software programme, but it's hard to develop and it doesn't work on the TR2 hardware, so it's also a fairly substantial hardware programme, since the engine has to be updated to make it all work. As time went by, we discovered unexpected difficulties in developing this programme, resulting in astronomical costs and delays.
 
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Your reasoning completely overlooks the value of the Rafale F4, but by the time the F5 arrives, the F4 will already be a very powerful system with the same capabilities as the F5, except in terms of detection, where the F5 will be superior. But the F4 Rafales will be able to integrate into the F5 network and take advantage of the situation awarness of the network, which means that an F4 Rafale in the network will be a very significant reinforcement of it. So we will have 225 Rafales against Russia, not 97, and each of these 225 Rafales could be accompanied by 4 unmanned aerial vehicles.

As long as SPECTRA is upgraded with the same GaN antennas as F5, the above is doable. But it's still far too less compared to what's necessary, if you have come here after reading post 20980 in the Ukraine thread.

F5 will begin after 2030, and you will get 97 jets only around the end of the 2030s. So I don't believe 225 jets will be of any use against Russia unless acting under the umbrella of NATO.

Yes, it's a software programme, but it's hard to develop and it doesn't work on the TR2 hardware, so it's also a fairly substantial hardware programme, since the engine has to be updated to make it all work. As time went by, we discovered unexpected difficulties in developing this programme, resulting in astronomical costs and delays.

Assuming the TR3 hardware is ready by April 2024, then quite a few of the previously delivered jets should get these upgrades. It's likely that only the initial lots are stuck or merely limited even with the new hardware. The engine thing could have been overexaggerated, there was always an upgrade in the works.

At least the first JSE tests are complete.
 
Your reasoning completely overlooks the value of the Rafale F4, but by the time the F5 arrives, the F4 will already be a very powerful system with the same capabilities as the F5, except in terms of detection, where the F5 will be superior. But the F4 Rafales will be able to integrate into the F5 network and take advantage of the situation awarness of the network, which means that an F4 Rafale in the network will be a very significant reinforcement of it. So we will have 225 Rafales against Russia, not 97, and each of these 225 Rafales could be accompanied by 4 unmanned aerial vehicles.

Yes, it's a software programme, but it's hard to develop and it doesn't work on the TR2 hardware, so it's also a fairly substantial hardware programme, since the engine has to be updated to make it all work. As time went by, we discovered unexpected difficulties in developing this programme, resulting in astronomical costs and delays.
Rafale F5 will need to deal with much evolved version of Su-57. So it better be good.
 

SO many unknown variables.​

After Hamas attack, US rushed new F-35 capabilities, parts to Israel: Officials

A wide-ranging hearing on the F-35 revealed new details on the aircraft’s current operations, as well as its developmental struggles, including its beleaguered TR-3 upgrade.​

By MICHAEL MARROWon December 12, 2023 at 6:05 PM

An Israeli F-35I takes off from Uvda airbase during Blue Flag 2019. (IAF photo)
WASHINGTON — US officials acted quickly in the wake of Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel to provide new F-35 Joint Strike Fighter weapons capabilities and spare parts to the country, a lawmaker and defense officials said today.
The rapidly shared F-35 capabilities and parts, revealed during a congressional hearing, is one feature of Washington’s wide-ranging assistance to Jerusalem. The accomplishment for the program was an operational bright spot in a hearing otherwise dominated by concerns from lawmakers about the stealth fighter’s cost and schedule overruns.
According to Rep. Rob Wittman, a Virginia Republican and chairman of the House Armed Services tactical air and land forces subcommittee, the F-35 program successfully “accelerat[ed] F-35 weapons capabilities and increas[ed] spare parts supply rates” after the Oct. 7 tragedy.


See how the technology we make makes the impossible, possible.
Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment William LaPlante testified today that Air Force Lt. Gen Mike Schmidt, who heads the F-35 program, and his team were able to share US-owned mission data files within a week’s time. After the hearing, Schmidt confirmed that LaPlante’s comments referenced capabilities provided to Israel, though he would not discuss specifics.
We are always trying to provide spare parts and capabilities to every one of our customers,” Schmidt said.

Israel’s program of record includes 50 American-made F-35As, according to plane-maker Lockheed Martin, though in July Jerusalem said it would be buying 25 more. The Israeli military has noted its use in the current conflict in Gaza, including the shoot down of what appeared to be a Houthi-launched cruise missile in the first intercept of its kind for the fighter.
“We are going to learn a lot” from Israel’s F-35 operations, Schmidt told lawmakers, noting that the country’s fleet has “high” mission-capable and fully mission-capable rates. The US fleet, by comparison, has struggled with its readiness rates.


The hearing came as the war in Gaza stretches into its third month, and as senior Biden administration officials, including President Joe Biden, expressed more reservation about Israel’s aggressive response to Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack that killed more than 1,200 Israelis. According to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, more than 17,000 people have been killed in Gaza since the attack.

TR-3, Block 4, and ECU​

The hearing convened today otherwise focused heavily on the high-profile cost and schedule overruns that have afflicted the F-35 program, namely in its new Technology Refresh-3 (TR-3) system, future capabilities and a planned engine upgrade.
According to Schmidt, the TR-3 effort — a set of new hardware and software that will provide the computing backbone for future capabilities — is struggling on the production line. Specifically, there are a select few parts that Lockheed and its suppliers are challenged to produce at a rate sufficient to meet the program’s current production schedule, as well as an eventual planned retrofit of existing jets.
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Industry is “not meeting our contractual requirements” to produce TR-3 kits at a sufficient rate, Schmidt told lawmakers. The Pentagon is not accepting new F-35s outfitted with TR-3 until software kinks associated with the system are worked out, which is now slated for sometime between April and June 2024.
They’ve got a little time here to ramp up, but they need to do it quickly parts-wise,” Schmidt told reporters after the hearing. “It’s not good to get to a certain point in the production line where this part needs to go in or that part and the part’s not there. That creates some kind of disturbance that is not healthy for a production line, and we’re all trying to work through that,” Schmidt added.
“Lockheed is paying a significant price relative to the contract,” he said, noting that the contractor “is incentivized to deliver here.”
In response, Lockheed said in a statement to Breaking Defense that “[o]ver the past few months, we began testing the next software release that will improve stability, radar, NextGenDAS and weapons capability. […] We also began test flights using TR-3 software on F-35 production jets in Fort Worth, and flight test continues at Edwards Air Force Base and Naval Air Station Patuxent River. As of early December, we have completed more than 160 flights. We also remain focused on expediting hardware delivery from our subcontractors that will be integrated with TR-3.
The TR-3 program is now set for a budget overrun of nearly $1 billion, lawmakers said today, a cost borne by taxpayers due to the program’s cost-plus contract. Lockheed, however, has forfeited a $60 million fee and isn’t profiting on continued work, Bloomberg reported.
Wittman, who seemed skeptical of the program’s plan to finish TR-3 work by the middle of next year, said today that lawmakers’ “patience… is wearing thin” on issues like TR-3 and a suite of planned upgrades known as Block 4 that has also experienced its own cost overruns and schedule slips.
Other lawmakers, like the subcommittee’s ranking member Donald Norcross, D-NJ, were “puzzl[ed]” by the Pentagon’s inability to certify that a proposed multi-year performance-based logistics (PBL) maintenance contract would either decrease costs or increase readiness. As Breaking Defense previously reported, the Pentagon has paused negotiations with Lockheed on the PBL due to an impasse over meeting the program’s certification requirements.
In his testimony today, LaPlante concurred with Norcross’s frustration, noting that officials are weighing other approaches like a PBL for particular subsystems rather than the entire aircraft.
“We continue to view Performance Based Logistics contracting as the primary way to increase part availability, readiness, and affordability for the long-term as the F-35 fleet scales. While we are disappointed with the decision, we remain committed to partnering with our customers to deliver sustainment support, enabling mission readiness and deterrence.”
As for a plan to upgrade the jet’s engine, Schmidt emphasized to lawmakers that the fiscal 2024 budget would need to be approved to move forward with the development effort, dubbed the Engine Core Upgrade (ECU) that will be built by incumbent F-35 engine maker Pratt & Whitney.
Funding for the ECU initiative is “good through February-ish” under the current continuing resolution, but after that point, “we’re actually at risk of running out if we don’t have an appropriations.”
 
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Newest F-35s stalled by slow production of key parts​

By Stephen Losey
Dec 13, 03:30 AM


WASHINGTON — Lockheed Martin has finished building fewer than half of the upgraded F-35 Joint Strike Fighters it promised this year, as slow production of key parts are holding up multiple new jets, the Pentagon’s top officer in charge of the program told lawmakers Tuesday.
Lt. Gen. Michael Schmidt, the F-35′s program executive officer, said at a House Armed Services tactical air and land forces subcommittee hearing Lockheed Martin is under contract to deliver 52 jets enabled with improvements known as Technology Refresh 3 by the end of this year. The company has finished construction on 21 of those.

But production on a handful of key components needed for the TR-3 hardware has ramped up slower than expected, Schmidt said, and the rest of the newest jets are still sitting at Lockheed Martin’s factory in Fort Worth, Texas, waiting for those parts. Schmidt declined to describe these parts to reporters after the hearing.
“The hardware is good,” Schmidt told reporters after the hearing. “It’s the rate at which they’re producing them to meet our production and retrofit needs. It is literally a small number of components, but I need all the components.”
TR-3 upgrades include hardware and software improvements to the F-35, such as better displays, computer memory, and processing power. They are needed for a more expansive upgrade called Block 4, which will improve the F-35′s weapons capacity, target recognition, and electronic warfare, among other features.

The Pentagon and Lockheed Martin sought to have TR-3 ready by April 2023. That date has now slipped considerably, largely because of persistent software and integration issues. Schmidt said Tuesday TR-3 might be done by mid-spring, though he was not confident in that deadline. The government and Lockheed Martin said previously it could be as late as next June.
The government is not accepting the newly built F-35s, because the military has not been able to carry out the test flights necessary to make sure they work properly.
Subcommittee chairman Rep. Rob Wittman, R-Va., said in the hearing that while the F-35 is a “technological marvel,” its repeated delays in fielding capabilities are disturbing.
Schmidt said part of the problem has been with underperforming labs the program has used to try to test TR-3, and that the program is trying to create more capacity in its labs to handle the greater capabilities intended for the F-35.

“Our labs are not properly representing the flight environment, and there’s way too much discovery happening in flight test,” Schmidt said.
He told reporters Lockheed “is paying a significant price” for its inability to meet its contractual requirements on the TR-3 jets, though he would not detail these penalties.

“Lockheed is very much incentivized to deliver,” he said.
Lockheed Martin did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The slow component production right now is only affecting new jets, he said, because the F-35 program hasn’t started working on retrofitting older jets.

But if the production issues aren’t ironed out, that could lead to more problems, he said.
 
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Rafale F5 will need to deal with much evolved version of Su-57. So it better be good.

I don't believe Rafale will be competitive with next gen jets. It will have some advantages in certain roles, like against SAMs, but it's not enough.

Once the F-35 gets working, it will significantly outstrip the Rafale, especially in strike. And the Su-57 and J-20 have far greater upgradeability options. Even AMCA Mk1 is expected to outstrip the Rafale in many areas, particularly strike.

Drones will be necessary to bridge the gap, to make up for the deficiencies of the jet, but everybody's gonna have drones by then. So the bigger jets will fly from greater distances, hide better with greater base stealth while using their bigger sensors over greater ranges. Rafale has none of those advantages, never mind all the performance advantages next gen jets have that the Rafale cannot already compete with, including the F-35.

With that said, it's still important for India, we need local production and proven capabilities. But for countries with access to the F-35 from here onwards, it's irrelevant, pretty much a downgrade. So it's not a surprise that the Swiss found the F-35 to be the better bet. Countries with access to the Su-57, the jet still needs some time before it's ready for an export customer.
 
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I don't believe Rafale will be competitive with next gen jets. It will have some advantages in certain roles, like against SAMs, but it's not enough.

Once the F-35 gets working, it will significantly outstrip the Rafale, especially in strike. And the Su-57 and J-20 have far greater upgradeability options. Even AMCA Mk1 is expected to outstrip the Rafale in many areas, particularly strike.

Drones will be necessary to bridge the gap, to make up for the deficiencies of the jet, but everybody's gonna have drones by then. So the bigger jets will fly from greater distances, hide better with greater base stealth while using their bigger sensors over greater ranges. Rafale has none of those advantages, never mind all the performance advantages next gen jets have that the Rafale cannot already compete with, including the F-35.

With that said, it's still important for India, we need local production and proven capabilities. But for countries with access to the F-35 from here onwards, it's irrelevant, pretty much a downgrade. So it's not a surprise that the Swiss found the F-35 to be the better bet. Countries with access to the Su-57, the jet still needs some time before it's ready for an export customer.
I still don't buy F-35 to be better air to air fighter than Rafale, despite better stealth. With UCAVs, Rafale's lethality in all domains shall further enhance.

Despite all advancements in sensors and tech, air combat is highly unpredictable, especially when you're fighting a peer level enemy. One never knows, when fight becomes close and that's where despite what @Optimist and @Innominate think, pigs don't fly and F-35 can't survive a Rafale. Period. BVR, you could always defeat missiles with EW and towed decoys.
 
I still don't buy F-35 to be better air to air fighter than Rafale, despite better stealth. With UCAVs, Rafale's lethality in all domains shall further enhance.

Despite all advancements in sensors and tech, air combat is highly unpredictable, especially when you're fighting a peer level enemy. One never knows, when fight becomes close and that's where despite what @Optimist and @Innominate think, pigs don't fly and F-35 can't survive a Rafale. Period. BVR, you could always defeat missiles with EW and towed decoys.

The F-35 wasn't really designed for air combat, so that's fine. But it blows past pretty much everything out there when it comes to strike. Even against the Rafale, it carries pretty much the entire payload of a Rafale internally, and when stealth is not necessary or when ACT becomes the norm even on the F-35, it will carry 2-3x the bomb load as the Rafale. Only the Su-57 beats the F-35 at this, and it's a much larger jet.
 
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The F-35 wasn't really designed for air combat, so that's fine. But it blows past pretty much everything out there when it comes to strike. Even against the Rafale, it carries pretty much the entire payload of a Rafale internally, and when stealth is not necessary or when ACT becomes the norm even on the F-35, it will carry 2-3x the bomb load as the Rafale. Only the Su-57 beats the F-35 at this, and it's a much larger jet.
100% correct(y)
 
No non US fighter currently in service can defeat the F-35 in air to air combat. F-35 will see first and kill first and will wreak havoc on enemy fighters radar and their missile seeker. Even F-22's have a lot of trouble taking on red-air F-35's.
 
No non US fighter currently in service can defeat the F-35 in air to air combat. F-35 will see first and kill first and will wreak havoc on enemy fighters radar and their missile seeker. Even F-22's have a lot of trouble taking on red-air F-35's.

Dumb and Dumber are a pair. You can't quote one without the other. They share one brain cell and a delusion.

I still don't buy F-35 to be better air to air fighter than Rafale, despite better stealth.
 
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