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F-16s to Ankara, F-35s to Athens come with caveat​

Provisions contained in letter of assurance by the State Department could affect the progress of the fighter jets sale to Turkey and Greece​

F-16s to Ankara, F-35s to Athens come with caveat

A US Air Force F-35 fighter jet flies at the Dubai Air Show in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on November 13, 2023. [Jon Gambrell/AP]
Lena Argiri

Using US military articles provided to NATO allies for “non-legitimate military purposes” could trigger the suspension or cancellation of all or part of the delivery of the equipment, according to the final draft of a letter of assurance written by the US Department of State, at the demand of the US Congress in the context of negotiations during the NATO Summit at Vilnius, Lithuania, in July 2023.

The final July 2023 draft, seen by Kathimerini, explicitly states that US defense articles provided to NATO allies must be used for legitimate military purposes and clearly must not be used to conduct military activities against other NATO allies.
As Kathimerini has repeatedly noted since the summer of 2023, the letter lays out in detail the precise process that the State Department is to follow if a NATO member uses the defense equipment in a “contrary manner.”
The assurance

In its letter, the State Department provides assurances to Congress that if a NATO ally were “to conduct repeated incursions against the internationally recognized borders of another NATO ally, the United States would seek to diplomatically resolve the situation. If the situation could not be resolved via normal diplomatic channels the United States will draw upon additional political and economic tools to resolve the situation including, if necessary, by implementing provisions in relevant defense transfer agreements with the country involved to suspend or cancel all or part of the delivery of relevant defense items consistent with the relevant provisions of those agreements.
US diplomats not only mention “repeated incursions” but, specifically, warn against any provocative activity by either Turkey or Greece against other NATO allies, adding that the US will use all instruments at its disposal to ensure the legitimate use of the provided equipment.
US diplomats mention ‘repeated incursions’ and specifically warn against any provocative activity by either Turkey or Greece against NATO allies
In case of non-legitimate use, the letter says that the Department of State will inform the congressional committees involved about actions it may take. It further states that it will examine the full range of options at its disposal, including partial or total suspension or cancellation of delivery. “If we see this equipment being used in a contrary manner, we will strongly consider the full range of options available to us, including suspension or cancellation of such a case as appropriate, and will consult directly with you in advance regarding any actions we may undertake.”

Referring specifically to Greece and Turkey, the State Department says it will consider including additional provisions in future sales aimed at “safeguarding against such activities or mistaken impressions by Turkey or Greece, that such activities are not prohibited. These measures would be implemented in a prudent method, taking into account the full scope of the United States’ regional policies and global defense trade posture and financial liabilities.”
It is standing US policy that defense procurement to allies will not lead to an arms race between them and will not change regional balances of power. In that respect, the draft letter states that “consistent with the Arms Export Control Act and the administration’s Conventional Arms Transfer policy would work to ensure that defense cooperation with our allies is properly balanced and does not contribute to an arms race, increase the possibility of escalation or conflict, contribute to human rights violations or prejudice the development of bilateral or multilateral agreements or other arrangements that would benefit regional security and stability.”


Kathimerini has not seen the actual letter of assurance sent, on January 26, to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee regarding the sales of F-16 and F-35 aircraft to Turkey and Greece, respectively. But the provisions of the final draft are very likely included in it.
Kathimerini understands that similar assurance letters have accompanied arms sales to US allies among the Gulf states, but that the attachment of such a letter to sales to NATO allies is a first. When Kathimerini revealed, a few weeks ago, the existence of a letter of assurance to Congress, Turkey’s Foreign and Defense ministries issued statements denying the existence of it or any conditions posed to the sale of new F-16s and upgrade kits.
Extra safety net
DC-based analysts say that the specific letter and the National Security Memorandum signed last week by President Biden on assurances that must be provided by every country acquiring US defense equipment and the enhanced monitoring of the final use of such equipment, create an extra safety net for Greek interests.
This letter was written in the summer of 2023, when it seemed that Sweden’s entry into NATO would be finalized at the Vilnius Summit. Congress was asking for assurances that, in case the F-16 sale to Turkey was approved, the fighters would not be used against Greece. The behind-the-scenes negotiations between Congress and the administration were tough and protracted and the exact wording of the letter was subject to many amendments.
The letter was not sent last summer as the so-called package deal (that included the F-16, the F-35, and the ratification of Sweden’s NATO membership) was temporarily frozen when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed on Sweden’s entry but postponed ratification for last autumn when Turkey’s Parliament would reconvene.
In the meantime, Congress leadership made it clear to the Biden administration that the letter of assurances should be a basic element of the final agreement to sell the fighters to Turkey and Greece.
 
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F-16s to Ankara, F-35s to Athens come with caveat​

Provisions contained in letter of assurance by the State Department could affect the progress of the fighter jets sale to Turkey and Greece​

F-16s to Ankara, F-35s to Athens come with caveat

A US Air Force F-35 fighter jet flies at the Dubai Air Show in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on November 13, 2023. [Jon Gambrell/AP]
Lena Argiri

Using US military articles provided to NATO allies for “non-legitimate military purposes” could trigger the suspension or cancellation of all or part of the delivery of the equipment, according to the final draft of a letter of assurance written by the US Department of State, at the demand of the US Congress in the context of negotiations during the NATO Summit at Vilnius, Lithuania, in July 2023.

The final July 2023 draft, seen by Kathimerini, explicitly states that US defense articles provided to NATO allies must be used for legitimate military purposes and clearly must not be used to conduct military activities against other NATO allies.
As Kathimerini has repeatedly noted since the summer of 2023, the letter lays out in detail the precise process that the State Department is to follow if a NATO member uses the defense equipment in a “contrary manner.”
The assurance

In its letter, the State Department provides assurances to Congress that if a NATO ally were “to conduct repeated incursions against the internationally recognized borders of another NATO ally, the United States would seek to diplomatically resolve the situation. If the situation could not be resolved via normal diplomatic channels the United States will draw upon additional political and economic tools to resolve the situation including, if necessary, by implementing provisions in relevant defense transfer agreements with the country involved to suspend or cancel all or part of the delivery of relevant defense items consistent with the relevant provisions of those agreements.
US diplomats not only mention “repeated incursions” but, specifically, warn against any provocative activity by either Turkey or Greece against other NATO allies, adding that the US will use all instruments at its disposal to ensure the legitimate use of the provided equipment.

In case of non-legitimate use, the letter says that the Department of State will inform the congressional committees involved about actions it may take. It further states that it will examine the full range of options at its disposal, including partial or total suspension or cancellation of delivery. “If we see this equipment being used in a contrary manner, we will strongly consider the full range of options available to us, including suspension or cancellation of such a case as appropriate, and will consult directly with you in advance regarding any actions we may undertake.”

Referring specifically to Greece and Turkey, the State Department says it will consider including additional provisions in future sales aimed at “safeguarding against such activities or mistaken impressions by Turkey or Greece, that such activities are not prohibited. These measures would be implemented in a prudent method, taking into account the full scope of the United States’ regional policies and global defense trade posture and financial liabilities.”
It is standing US policy that defense procurement to allies will not lead to an arms race between them and will not change regional balances of power. In that respect, the draft letter states that “consistent with the Arms Export Control Act and the administration’s Conventional Arms Transfer policy would work to ensure that defense cooperation with our allies is properly balanced and does not contribute to an arms race, increase the possibility of escalation or conflict, contribute to human rights violations or prejudice the development of bilateral or multilateral agreements or other arrangements that would benefit regional security and stability.”


Kathimerini has not seen the actual letter of assurance sent, on January 26, to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee regarding the sales of F-16 and F-35 aircraft to Turkey and Greece, respectively. But the provisions of the final draft are very likely included in it.
Kathimerini understands that similar assurance letters have accompanied arms sales to US allies among the Gulf states, but that the attachment of such a letter to sales to NATO allies is a first. When Kathimerini revealed, a few weeks ago, the existence of a letter of assurance to Congress, Turkey’s Foreign and Defense ministries issued statements denying the existence of it or any conditions posed to the sale of new F-16s and upgrade kits.
Extra safety net
DC-based analysts say that the specific letter and the National Security Memorandum signed last week by President Biden on assurances that must be provided by every country acquiring US defense equipment and the enhanced monitoring of the final use of such equipment, create an extra safety net for Greek interests.
This letter was written in the summer of 2023, when it seemed that Sweden’s entry into NATO would be finalized at the Vilnius Summit. Congress was asking for assurances that, in case the F-16 sale to Turkey was approved, the fighters would not be used against Greece. The behind-the-scenes negotiations between Congress and the administration were tough and protracted and the exact wording of the letter was subject to many amendments.
The letter was not sent last summer as the so-called package deal (that included the F-16, the F-35, and the ratification of Sweden’s NATO membership) was temporarily frozen when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed on Sweden’s entry but postponed ratification for last autumn when Turkey’s Parliament would reconvene.
In the meantime, Congress leadership made it clear to the Biden administration that the letter of assurances should be a basic element of the final agreement to sell the fighters to Turkey and Greece.
Us weapons always come with a leash. Even for strong ally.
 
Su-57's production is now in full flow. Europe is in big trouble now especially if Trump is elected as US president.
We have some years to prepare.

It is a unique opportunity to create a real european defense, and (may be a wet dream) why not a european deterrence.

Russia, winner or looser in Ukraine, will be weak for years : strategy was never convenient, they loose some of their best trained soldiers, they loose hundreds of tanks, in term of decision loop they always are late.
 
Maybe new GaN based APG-77 or new radar based on APG-85, stealthy IRST pod, stealthy fuel tanks, upgraded AN/ALR-94. They also may tweak the engines for more efficiency. Better EW too, I guess!

@randomradio anything more?

Need everything new, radar, EW suite, cockpit, comlink etc. And yeah, fuel tanks. Not sure about the engine, it depends on how long they want to keep the jet around.
 
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It seems that's USAF is really considering a down curved in F-35A procurement considering F-15EX qualities.
(..)
What’s also important to realize is that the expected operational lifespan of an F-15EX is an incredible 20,000 hours. If you compare that to the F-35’s 8,000 hours, it becomes clear that the Air Force would need three F-35As to equal the operational hours of just one F-15EX.
(..)
Recently, the F-15EX fighter plane successfully completed a missile test. This means it’s closer to being able to carry more air-to-air missiles than any other fighter plane, outperforming models like the F-16 Fighting Falcon, F-35, and the F-22 Raptor.
(..)
It’s worth mentioning that last year, the US Air Force [USAF] was pleasantly surprised by the new F-15EX fighter jet. After two years of testing, the jet exceeded expectations in areas such as firepower and precision performance. They also highlighted that the F-15EX could perform bombing operations as successfully as the F-35 but at a much lower cost.
(..)
It’s always a tricky business when you’re comparing two different things like the F-15EX and the F-35A planes, primarily because they aren’t built to perform the same tasks – that’s what the US authorities want to highlight. But with costs for the F-15EX rising, it seems that the US Air Guard is focusing more on how easy it is to use and integrate the plane, along with how many weapons it can carry and how far it can fly, over how well the F-35A can hide.

Merchants and rulers wanna sell more F-15s, but the soldiers do not want it. Going beyond 80 jets is a complete waste of money.
 

The US Air Force doesn’t want F-15X. But it needs more fighter jets.​


It's fine for the ANG, pointless for the USAF. Political decisions in military matters suck.

There's another stupid program being planned, this 4++ or 5-- jet that's supposed to provide cheaper capabilities for asymmetric warfare. The USAF will not just get stuck with 10+ squadrons of useless junk, but it will also impact F-35 exports. And Iran's now supplying advanced air defenses to all the asymmetric clowns in the ME.
 

Potential F-35 Cuts in 2025 Won’t Be Made up by FMS, May Drive Costs Higher​

Rumored cuts to the Pentagon’s F-35 buy in its fiscal year 2025 budget request would not be mitigated by recent Foreign Military Sales and are likely to drive prices higher, DOD and industry sources told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

The Department of Defense outlined plans to buy 83 F-35s in 2025 in its latest future years defense plan, but now the Air Force expects to cut six F-35As and the Navy eight F-35Cs, sources said.

If the proposed cuts go through, the Air Force would buy 42 F-35As; the Marine Corps would buy 16 F-35Bs, and the Navy would buy just 11 F-35Cs. However, sources cautioned that those numbers stem from leaked documents that may not be the final word on what the Pentagon will submit in its 2025 budget proposal next month.

Reuters previously reported on the possible cuts.

The Navy reduction would be hard to compensate for on Lockheed Martin’s production line, as those aircraft are already in work and there are no FMS customers for that variant to which the aircraft could be shifted. And while the Air Force “A-model” jets have more in common with many FMS customers, there are still dissimilarities among A-model users, such as drag chutes, which would cause churn on the assembly line and disrupt efficiencies.

Cutting the buy “drives a ton of inefficiency throughout the … whole production system,” an industry source said. “And then also drives that uncertainty amongst the suppliers. And they can re-price” parts, materials and assemblies “if the numbers aren’t the same. It’s just … a lot of turbulence and none of that turbulence helps price, schedule, or anything else.”

For the C-model aircraft there would have to be a “termination for convenience” of the government on a number of long-lead items already in work, an industry source said, which would likely drive overall prices higher.


“I like to think of production slots almost like airline seats,” he said. “You know, once you miss it and the plane takes off, you’ve missed an opportunity to put airplanes into” the sequence.

Lockheed Martin designed its F-35 production facilities so that all variants move down the same assembly line, and an A model may be followed by two Cs and then a B, for example. The company has consistently rejected the idea of building large numbers of a single variant at a time, to maintain a learning curve with all variants and preserve some flexibility of manufacture.

While it might be possible to push some of the C-model long-lead parts into another contracted lot, generally, “a change in the quantities for a lot would have an impact on price,” the source said.

A Pentagon official acknowledged that cutting the buy “now, while we are in the middle of negotiations” on Lots 18 and 19 “sends the wrong demand signal” to suppliers, who will thus have to be cautious in quoting materials and component prices, given uncertainty about future work.

An industry source said 67 percent of Lockheed’s prices are set by the suppliers.


“It would be a fundamental change to the Lot 18-19 negotiation construct if they pull those jets out,” he said.

While the Navy may be able to put the cut F-35Cs on its Unfunded Priorities List, the Air Force may be enjoined within the DOD from taking that approach with its F-35As, sources said.

It’s wrong to assume that the unfunded aircraft can simply be transitioned to FMS customers, one observed. Even though the FMS customers may want their jets faster, “These countries … have very defined buy profiles that they have worked their national budgets for,” said one.

“They have the cashflow planned. And while it may be nice to pull it ahead a couple of years or a year to get a plane sooner, that may not have been what they were budgeted for. And most countries don’t have the budget flexibility to just decide to spend … a billion dollars earlier than planned,” he said.

Most customers also have a delivery profile tailored to the retirement of their existing equipment and the rate at which they can introduce the new airplanes, predicated on training pilots and maintainers and acquiring new ground equipment and weapons.

The Czech Republic, South Korea, and Israel have recently either made a deal to buy a collective 60 new F-35s or declared their desire to do so.

Cutting into the F-35 buy has become a convenient place to go for cuts, one industry source said, because it’s the largest aircraft program with thousands of units planned.

“People think they can shave some of it off and fix other problems,” he noted. “It’s not as straightforward as it seems.”

Lockheed Martin is storing some 60 F-35s, waiting for the Tech Refresh-3 upgrade to be tested before the jets can be delivered to the government. The rate at which those jets could be absorbed once the TR-3 is cleared isn’t likely to be a factor in the cuts contemplated. The reductions would affect Lot 19, and many of that lot’s aircraft won’t be delivered until 2027. One source familiar with the timing of the program said the TR-3 issue “hopefully, is long since in the rear-view mirror” by that point.

The F-35 is not the only area where cuts are being made in the 2025 budget, sources agreed. “There’s plenty of pain to go around,” noted one.
 
It's not cope, it's factual. There is no other reason to reveal such a thing to Singaporeans.

All sellers do the same.
Factual? Well I had no idea you had access to defense minister and asked him why he disclosed such info. Bravo for you.

Here's what happened... Defense Minister never said F-35's are flying over Ukraine airspace and it is well known US/NATO ISR aircraft flying over the black sea near Ukraine are there to gather intelligence so it's not some secret if F-35's are flying over the black sea they may also be collecting intel.

Also US likely gave the okay for Singapore to disclose to take some pressure off Germany and their leaked tapes.
 
If F-35s are flying into Ukrainian airspace then it's perfect chance for Su-57s to shoot it using R-77M and even better with R-74M2.
 
Factual? Well I had no idea you had access to defense minister and asked him why he disclosed such info. Bravo for you.

Here's what happened... Defense Minister never said F-35's are flying over Ukraine airspace and it is well known US/NATO ISR aircraft flying over the black sea near Ukraine are there to gather intelligence so it's not some secret if F-35's are flying over the black sea they may also be collecting intel.

Also US likely gave the okay for Singapore to disclose to take some pressure off Germany and their leaked tapes.

Of course, from the Black Sea. The US isn't stupid enough to fly over a Russian warzone.

And this doesn't do anything to stave off pressure for the Germans.
 
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