MMRCA 2.0 - Updates and Discussions

[_Anonymous_]

I don't think RST can tell the difference between necessity & luxury ( for want of a better word ) just as he can't tell compliments from caution viz - RST makes up things on the go as opposed to carefully planning his posts - & he'd take it as a compliment.

I mean is this even a point of debate that the ACM in his very first public address is painting an alarming picture of the state of the IAF putting it across in de rigeur language only for RST to interpret it as something run of the mill. I wonder how many air chiefs make such statements immediately on assuming office.

The IAF will do what's expected of them with the tools they have which means with the right number & quality they'd achieve their aims short of which it's all about limiting the damages.

Further I also can tell that RST clearly can't tell between information put out for public consumption vis a vis a comprehensive report following the exercise which is for the exclusive consumption of our security managers about the actual state of our preparedness against set goals which is essentially a stock taking exercise unless he believes that all such organisations are so transparent that they'd willingly share all such information in the public domain.

I mean after all these years of forum life if he's debating basics it's clear he's operating in world of his own.

 

[randomradio]

It appears some people are yet to graduate from diaper to half-chaddi, and even more worrisome is the gold fish memory, so it looks like the handholding and spoonfeeding required as for children will continue.

If enough memory is jogged, one will remember that I had stated India's economy is growing fast, and by the time the MRFA bill comes around, our economy will rival that of China's in the late 2000s, and during that time, China was busy inducting jets worth 1 MRFA every year. They now have over 1500 Flankers, J-20s and J-10s, all that came in at roughly 100 a year from 2009 or so until today. So if China could buy 1 MRFA every year, apparently people think it's gonna be very difficult for India to fund 1 MRFA over 10 years.

Another point is Rafales within this decade is useless for the IAF, this has already been explained. What's necessary is the F5. If MRFA begins next year, it's going to take until 2030-31 to sign a contract and until 2034 or so to get the first jet. This is a 6th gen Rafale, not a regular joe Rafale from 2029, which our new ACM claims will be matched by LCA Mk2 anyway. So we are not only going to start paying the bill from 2031, but MRFA is necessary after LCA Mk2 and MKI MLU start delivering to some capacity.

AMCA is a 2045 fighter. Even ACM Angad Singh says they need a few years after induction to operationalize a jet. Looks like gold fish memory begins in full flow once the subject logs into Strat Front. AMCA's IOC is expected in 2032, tall claim, with induction in 2035, followed by FOC and a further 20 jets before AMCA with a definitive engine begins delivery. So even by 2038 or 39 or so, we will still be in the same place as LCA is today, operating 2 squadrons of AMCA with old engines and awaiting the definitive version by 2039 or 2040 or so. Then 1 squadron a year will get us 5 squadrons by 2045, and it will take another two years or so to get all 5 squadrons qualified for combat. So 2047. Bling-bling, Independence Day. Hence MRFA fits into the 2035+ bracket and AMCA fits into the 2043+ bracket. No competition here. If MRFA gets killed too, we buy 2 more Rafale F5 squadrons and go all-in on AMCA, and wait for that instead, possibly filling up the gap with more LCA Mk2s in the meantime.

And lol @ MTA et al. MTA was canceled 'cause it ws deemed inadequate for our needs. IAF has turned their eyes towards the Brazilian C-390 instead, which is more suitable for carrying modern vehicles the IA needs, and the engine choice is first class. It's the same engine that will power almost all of IAF's future force multipliers based on the A319/320/321.

With Mahindra as their production partner, Embraer has now become a more promising partner for the IAF than Ilyushin.

Embraer and Mahindra announce collaboration on the C-390 Millennium Medium Transport Aircraft in India

Embraer and Mahindra announce collaboration on the C-390 Millennium Medium Transport Aircraft in India

www.mahindra.com

It's going to be as indigenous if not more indigenous than MTA. But we are going to get it via a competition that favors large scale indigenization, instead of getting suckered into a poor deal by the Russians. C-130J, IL-276 and A400M will also compete.

https://indianairforce.nic.in/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/RFI-for-MEDIUM-TRANSPORT-AIRCRAFT-1.pdf

Guidelines for Framing Criteria for Vendor Selection/PreQualification in Buy Indian (IDDM), Buy (Indian) and Buy & Make (Indian) Cases.

And with TATA-Airbus making lighter transports, it appears the IAF has decided to choose private industry for this segment over HAL. So this competition is bigger than the original MTA and is expected to bring in better terms.

America will deliver a future strategic transport once they develop a replacement for the C-17.

Most of the other stuff Sriram mentioned are for this decade, MRFA is for the next decade, as is AMCA. 6th gen won't come this decade after all.

Man, more gyan-giving to the resident kid.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1843323767738741027

 

[randomradio]

Post 5264 is funny.

For nearly a decade I've stuck to my guns saying MRFA will happen, basically TE MII, regardless of how many naysayers, including people in positions of power, said MRFA is not happening. It's finally happening and people don't like it.

Otoh, the IAF has stuck to its guns too; MRFA is "necessary" and "needed" repeated umpteen number of times by actual stakeholders in the game, and people refuse to believe the ones who make these decisions. That head and ostrich syndrome is at full display.

The IAF not only claimed that they can fight, but even proved it via two major exercises, but people now are hellbent on calling them liars. Funny how being cheeky has transformed into ad-hominem attacks on all and sundry out of sheer frustration.

Now, as it stands, MRFA is happening, IAF will get most of their LCA Mk2s between 2030-35, Rafales between 2035-40 and AMCAs between 2040-45. That will take us to 45 squadrons, with the next procurement cycle beginning after 2050. While LCA Mk2 is somewhat doable 'cause of the engine and avionics being ready, I don't trust the AMCA timeframe, given the lack of an engine and the complexity of 6th gen avionics, so give it another 2 or 3 years post 2045 for all 7 squadrons.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Yup. The previous thread was indeed forgettable for the way it ended.

The only doctrines shared were dry texts full of abstract information. If RST has access to any qualitative analyses in it which given his close proximity to Vayu Bhavan he must , it's requested he share it here for the benefit of us ordinary mortals.

I'm sure if this tender is pushed to 2032 & beyond MMRFA weightage towards specific technologies will change even further . What's more we'd have RST defend it with even more gusto than Matheswaran & the IAF leadership then .

You normally sign up for what you've been demonstrated which in this case is the Fighter Aircraft as it is & not for future iterations however promising it is. This is the way agreements for high value long gestation items are concluded after a tender for the entire process is a long laborious one .

If one keeps taking newer iterations of one side into consideration one would have to do so for all sides else the entire process is deemed faulty at best & rigged at worst. Hence a cut off date is considered . You can clearly tell RST has no knowledge or experience of techno commercial bids whatsoever.

6th generation tech of Rafale F5 when even the French including Dassault not exactly known for their modesty never described it as such only going so far as to say if the FCAS / SCAF doesn't work out the Super Rafale or the Rafale F5 & later the F6 versions would be good enough to handle what's thrown at them which is an accurate statement considering they hope to engage the Su-57M & not the F-35 & the F-22.

If the Rafales were truly 6th Gen capable with F5 & F6 why's it involved in the 6th Gen FCAS program ? If he's really convinced by all these statements put out by Dassault for public consumption aimed at ze Germans which is what it is & lacks intelligence to tell public posturing from firm intent it's more a comment on his intellect.

Once again like before I think we're having two separate arguments. The IAF is crying out loud not merely because their war waging abilities is affected due to a falling squadron strength which they are BUT & THIS IS CRITICAL , because it's coming at a time when they're expected to go up against the Chinese , shortly.

If the IAF didn't have such pressing exigencies to deal with it'd be business as usual with the MRFA tender buried under a stack of files & we'd be going about our indigenous programs at IST not that we aren't in the present .

On Mondays J-20 > Rafale . On Tuesdays Rafales = J-20 . The only difference in the argument from 2 years ago are the caveats inserted now.

I guess in RST's books modernization / upgradation is a bad word . So is progress. That's the standard of argument he's making . Hence MKIs whose upgradations are costing about as much as they did at the time of procurement is bad. We could've gotten them in the Super Sukhoi configuration 20 years after we initially did. Ditto for MRFA. I'd advise RST to seriously look up the difference between the ludicrous & the sublime . He seems to have confused one for the other here in the line of argument he's pursuing.

MP killed the MMRCA coz it was going nowhere since 2012 not 2016 when he took over essentially coz Dassault backed out of their commitments & once the deal for 36 nos Rafales was signed all he did was bury a corpse for the MMRCA tender died in 2014 itself once the then DM AK Antony declared that the MMRCA would now be the baby of the forthcoming government. The rest of his commentary is rationalization . I've yet to come across a single nation win a war for air superiority only through deployment of IADS howsoever sophisticated it is. RST truly is in a world all his own .

Up until 2016 when the deal for 36 nos Rafales was concluded nobody foresaw the J-20s would arrive in the numbers they did. As far as its sophistication goes that's a matter of conjecture but PRUDENT armed forces normally go by the dictum - hope for the best while preparing for the worst.

To say MMRCA was redundant by 2016 in terms of the quality of the FA it had chosen is ridiculous but then again this is the same guy who's declared the Scorpenes obsolete & what's more thinks we should be getting the Kilos instead of additional Scorpenes.

He comes up with the kind of argument which'd test the patience of the Buddha himself.

 

[randomradio]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1843323767738741027

We should be very close to a whole bunch of signatures; Rafale, F414, Guardians. Perhaps even the next batch of Mk1As.

 

[randomradio]

Another clueless post in 5268.

There are only two major iterations of Rafale, the F3/F3+ and the F5. The next major one after F5 is either a Rafale Mk2 or a whole new jet, like FCAS.

Rafale F1 was an IOC model, F2 in 2004 was the FOC model with some tech, F3 in 2006 came with most of the capabilities necessary, further iterations brought in an AESA radar with F3+ in 2012, followed by Meteor in 2018 with F3R. F3+ was the most important combat-capable version of the Rafale, hence why exports took off. F4 disappointingly was a minor upgrade over the F3+ and F5 is a major change to the Rafale's avionics. It introduces a whole new radar architecture which will also double as an EW suite and comm suite, all with 360 deg capability. The next iteration, F6, will simply build on F5. This is why F5 is critical for the IAF, for the French too for that matter. So we have 5th gen tech of F3/F4, equivalent to LCA Mk2, and 6th gen tech of F5, equivalent to AMCA, hence the critical need for F5.

Basically, F1/2, F3 and F4 are one technology tree, and F5, F6, and F7 are very likely the next technology tree. Same airframe, two generations.

F6 and F7 are still unknown, but will not take the Rafale to the next level, as per Dassault themselves. These are at best upgrades meant to keep the Rafale somewhat relevant relative to the threats around at the time. Meaning, F5 will carry the Rafale to 2050, and beyond that a new jet is necessary. So we are aiming for AMCA and the French are gonna get either a modernized Rafale Mk2 or FCAS, whichever politically works out for them.

F3 and F4 will become insufficient by 2030 due to the relative capabilities of new threats. F3 and F4 are somewhat salvageable with GaN, but not enough for a China fight in the mid to late 2030s.

It's easy to correlate. If F3 in 2012 is good for 15-20 years, it's going to be outdated in the 2030s. And F5 in 2035 will become outdated in the 2050s. Similarly, F2 has been outdated since the onset of this decade. That's why the IAF had planned for MKI in the 2000s, MMRCA in the 2010s, FGFA in the 2020s and AMCA in the 2030s. And to compensate for the squadron drawdown, we have compressed this 30-year cycle to 15 years; ie 2030-45 for LCA Mk2/MKI MLU, Rafale F5 and AMCA. An AMCA Mk2 can plug the gap between AMCA and the MKI-replacement.

As for J-20 numbers, I mentioned to a poster called JHungary on Pak Def in 2017/18 that the PLAAF will induct 100 a year, and will operate 1000+ long before 2030, with at least 500 by 2025. And it looks like my prediction back then was 100% accurate. So if I could say that back in 2017, I'm sure the IAF clearly knew what was going to happen back then too. It's because PLAAF was inducting about 100-120 J-10s and J-16s every year at the time; ie, 1 MRFA every year. Only Internet weaboos think the IAF are fools and liars.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

If the first jet comes in 2028, shouldn't final delivery happen before 2030? It's just 26 jets.

My initial assumption was that the MRFA would be purchased immediately. For the Navy's 26, I think they will have them in F4.2 around 2029-30 depending on the date of signature. It will then be possible to update them as described for the MRFA, but I don't think that will be included in the contract they sign.

 

[Bon Plan]

adding multifunction GaN antennas, which will create a 360° bubble.

So with side antennas.

 

[Speedster1]

! Americans are desperate for us to buy F-35s. They are dangling it to us by bringing it into subsequent Aero India shows(24 & 25). But first they want IAF to operate F-16Vs err.......F-21s

That's not about to happen. An entire generation of Indians sees the F-16 as an adversary ac.

Given the sunk costs of building a Rafale ecosystem in India and the focus on indigenisation (+fleet rationalisation) , the F-35 is a non-starter for the IAF imo. In any case, the US won't agree to license mfg it here (or they might supply SKD kits for us to FACO - final assembly and checkout)

Then there would be the usual strings attached, of course (EUMA inspections, segregation from Russian ac, etc). Not a pretty sight, imo.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Another clueless post in 5268.

There are only two major iterations of Rafale, the F3/F3+ and the F5. The next major one after F5 is either a Rafale Mk2 or a whole new jet, like FCAS.

RAFALE STANDARD F5: First orders to manufacturers

https://twitter.com/x/status/1843646555657478369

 

[Speedster1]

He just happened to be in power when HAL provided a genius solution to the IAF's squadron issue. And the IAF took it 'cause "beggers can't be choosers."

He was a technocrat with a functional understanding of iterative development. Played a key role in convincing the IAF to consider an improved Mk1A.

Parrikar cuts Gordian knot to boost Tejas line

www.ajaishukla.com

If the IAF had its way, ithe Mk1/A would have been foreclosed and we'd have jumped straight to the Mk2 still on the drawing board.

Had that happened, we would have had to face the ignominy of leasing Rafales, F-16s, Gripens or whatever else was available today.

F-16’s airframe is a third generation design that has outlived its utility. It cannot measure up to even 4th generation aircraft any more, despite all the avionics upgrades. Its components, aggregates, fuel efficiency, life cycle costs, will all be in the 3rd generation.”

Not nearly as harsh as 'three legged ac'.

just so happened that LCA Mk1 became fully certified and IAF found it acceptable enough as a Mig-21 replacement, as long as it was adequately upgraded

No thanks to the IAF. Instead of changing ASRs every couple of years, they could have planned an iterative road map for specific systems in consultation with DRDO/ADE.

The MKs and Ks were inducted to train pilots, and were subsequently replaced with MKIs. These were not fully combat-capable jets, just meant for training, even combat training.

The Su-30K were analogue compared to the MKIs digital. No commonality in terms of avionics, sensors etc. What training could they possibly have done? No, the Su-30K purchase was a lifeline thrown to Sukhoi which was on the verge of a shutting down for lack of work.

The forces do not take such chances. INSAS was a living example of that.

first two prototypes that could have been considered prototypes by Western standards were made in 2008 and 2010. ADA tried to push the third "real" prototype in 2011 without fully finishing development

Op familiarisation and ramp up would have taken a few years anyway. It's the same for any newly inducted type.

The first LCA sqn came up in Sulur, far away from the frontline. There was no pressing need for the ac to be 'all systems go' on Day 1 imo.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Unmanned combat aerial vehicle program kicks off as part of the Rafale F5 standard​

Saint-Cloud, October 8, 2024 – On this day, Sébastien Lecornu, French Minister of the Armed Forces and Veterans Affairs, announced the development launch of the unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) that will complement the future Rafale F5 standard after 2030.

The announcement was made at a ceremony marking the 60th anniversary of the French Strategic Air Forces (FAS) at the Saint-Dizier air base, in the presence of General Jérôme Bellanger, Chief of Staff of the French Air and Space Force (AAE), and Éric Trappier, Chairman and CEO of Dassault Aviation.

“This stealth combat drone will contribute to the technological and operational superiority of the French Air Force by 2033. It is significant that it is being initiated today, as we mark the 60th anniversary of the Strategic Air Forces and the 90th anniversary of the Air and Space Force: in aeronautics — a highly complex field — the future has deep roots, and innovation is built on experience. Dassault Aviation and its partners are proud to serve the French Armed Forces and the French Defense Procurement Agency (DGA). Their renewed confidence honours and obliges us,” declared Éric Trappier.

This UAV will be complementary to the Rafale and suited to collaborative combat. It will incorporate stealth technologies, autonomous control (with man-in-the-loop), internal payload capacity, and more. It will be highly versatile and designed to evolve in line with future threats.

It will benefit from the achievements of the nEUROn* program, Europe’s first stealth UCAV demonstrator.

The Rafale F5 combined with the UCAV and their evolutions, like the Mirage IV in its times, will ensure France’s independence and capability superiority in the coming decades.

* Initiated in 2003, the nEUROn program brought together the aeronautics resources of six European countries, with project management by Dassault Aviation. nEUROn completed its maiden flight in December 2012. More than 170 test flights have been conducted to date. The nEUROn program has lived up to all its promises in terms of performance levels, lead times and budget.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

It seems that Rafale F5 will be aiready operational by 2033.
If we need 2 or 3 UAVs per Rafale and we have to equip France and export, we'll have to produce more than 1,300 UAVs, and they'll be bigger than the Neuron because they'll have to carry a sufficiently large payload in their payload bay sufficiently far. If they have to be produced at Mérignac, then the Rafales will have to be produced elsewhere... Follow my lead.

 

[randomradio]

My initial assumption was that the MRFA would be purchased immediately.

You were right to think so back then, there was a plan to sign a contract for 90 jets after all. But it appears LCA Mk1A and MWF allowed changing the plan to what it is today.

New information the IAF got from the MMRCA tender and FGFA development must have contributed to the change.

For the Navy's 26, I think they will have them in F4.2 around 2029-30 depending on the date of signature. It will then be possible to update them as described for the MRFA, but I don't think that will be included in the contract they sign.

Yeah, any major change will require a new contract. And that's subject to IST. And I don't think the IN will bother with it right away, they will instead wait for French drone tech to mature.

 

[randomradio]

Given the sunk costs of building a Rafale ecosystem in India and the focus on indigenisation (+fleet rationalisation) , the F-35 is a non-starter for the IAF imo. In any case, the US won't agree to license mfg it here (or they might supply SKD kits for us to FACO - final assembly and checkout)

Nothing outside a stopgap. Both the US and Israelis showed off the F-35A and I though. Whatever the case, let's see what the IAF does after MRFA begins, and progresses to negotiations. MRO would be a minimum rquirement.

RAFALE STANDARD F5: First orders to manufacturers

https://twitter.com/x/status/1843646555657478369

So we could see quite a bit of progress by 2030. I guess both Indian and French drones are progressing along in parallel.

 

[randomradio]

He was a technocrat with a functional understanding of iterative development. Played a key role in convincing the IAF to consider an improved Mk1A.

Parrikar cuts Gordian knot to boost Tejas line

www.ajaishukla.com

If the IAF had its way, ithe Mk1/A would have been foreclosed and we'd have jumped straight to the Mk2 still on the drawing board.

Had that happened, we would have had to face the ignominy of leasing Rafales, F-16s, Gripens or whatever else was available today.

One man absolutely does not matter. He doesn't have executive control. The IAF wasn't invovled in LCA by design.

Not nearly as harsh as 'three legged ac'.

What was said about the F-16 was way worse. And there was quite a bit of truth to the cheetah comment, which both ADA and HAL admitted to at the time. Hence the devolution to IOC-1. That's why it took until 2015 to get it all right. That's when they took the LCA to Bahrain to prove the LCA's worth in Jan 2016.

No thanks to the IAF. Instead of changing ASRs every couple of years, they could have planned an iterative road map for specific systems in consultation with DRDO/ADE.

That's the thing, they didn't. The IAF did not change anything in the ASR. DRDO changed everything.

Like, what do you think the IAF changed?

The Su-30K were analogue compared to the MKIs digital. No commonality in terms of avionics, sensors etc. What training could they possibly have done? No, the Su-30K purchase was a lifeline thrown to Sukhoi which was on the verge of a shutting down for lack of work.

It was just 8 Ks and 10 MKs, as stopgap for MKIs. They were later transferred to Russia. The IAF obviously needed it to train pilots on the Flanker airframe. This is normal. It wasn't a fully operational combat aircraft.

Op familiarisation and ramp up would have taken a few years anyway. It's the same for any newly inducted type.

I don't think you understand. 2008 saw the first fully equipped prototype followed by the second one in 2010. The IAF canot do anything with them, they were necessary for development flights. There was nothing in 2004, 2005 etc.

The first LCA sqn came up in Sulur, far away from the frontline. There was no pressing need for the ac to be 'all systems go' on Day 1 imo.

So what? The IAF did buy LCAs before they were up to standard anyway. The early development finished only in 2013, followed by full FCS release in 2015. And jets were inducted the very next year. Also, to support the program, IAF bought 20 LCAs in 2004 and 20 more in 2010. So the IAF did everything necessary right from the start. And they are going to receive all 40 jets this year, ie 20 years after the first order was placed.

Seriously, what do you want the IAF to do? It was just a very badly run program. And once it delivered, the IAF bought it.

 

[randomradio]

Unmanned combat aerial vehicle program kicks off as part of the Rafale F5 standard​

Saint-Cloud, October 8, 2024 – On this day, Sébastien Lecornu, French Minister of the Armed Forces and Veterans Affairs, announced the development launch of the unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) that will complement the future Rafale F5 standard after 2030.

The announcement was made at a ceremony marking the 60th anniversary of the French Strategic Air Forces (FAS) at the Saint-Dizier air base, in the presence of General Jérôme Bellanger, Chief of Staff of the French Air and Space Force (AAE), and Éric Trappier, Chairman and CEO of Dassault Aviation.

“This stealth combat drone will contribute to the technological and operational superiority of the French Air Force by 2033. It is significant that it is being initiated today, as we mark the 60th anniversary of the Strategic Air Forces and the 90th anniversary of the Air and Space Force: in aeronautics — a highly complex field — the future has deep roots, and innovation is built on experience. Dassault Aviation and its partners are proud to serve the French Armed Forces and the French Defense Procurement Agency (DGA). Their renewed confidence honours and obliges us,” declared Éric Trappier.

This UAV will be complementary to the Rafale and suited to collaborative combat. It will incorporate stealth technologies, autonomous control (with man-in-the-loop), internal payload capacity, and more. It will be highly versatile and designed to evolve in line with future threats.

It will benefit from the achievements of the nEUROn* program, Europe’s first stealth UCAV demonstrator.

The Rafale F5 combined with the UCAV and their evolutions, like the Mirage IV in its times, will ensure France’s independence and capability superiority in the coming decades.

* Initiated in 2003, the nEUROn program brought together the aeronautics resources of six European countries, with project management by Dassault Aviation. nEUROn completed its maiden flight in December 2012. More than 170 test flights have been conducted to date. The nEUROn program has lived up to all its promises in terms of performance levels, lead times and budget.

Not bad. A 2033 induction date would mean an MRFA contract anytime after 2028 is good enough.

 

[randomradio]

It seems that Rafale F5 will be aiready operational by 2033.
If we need 2 or 3 UAVs per Rafale and we have to equip France and export, we'll have to produce more than 1,300 UAVs, and they'll be bigger than the Neuron because they'll have to carry a sufficiently large payload in their payload bay sufficiently far. If they have to be produced at Mérignac, then the Rafales will have to be produced elsewhere... Follow my lead.

By that measure, while Dassault can build 11 Rafales and 22-33 drones for AAE/MN, the rest can be built in India, including the drones.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

By that measure, while Dassault can build 11 Rafales and 22-33 drones for AAE/MN, the rest can be built in India, including the drones.

He he...