MMRCA 2.0 - Updates and Discussions
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It won't impact defense deals this year. It showed up two more times since the GTG deal.
Back then our economy was about to collapse. It was brought back from the brink only by early 2022, which is why modernization began at full swing once the economy normalized. It's also why Anil Ambani went broke. Many companies had miscalculated India's growth under UPA and became overleveraged.
The Rafale discussion in India often seems to confuse two different objectives.
The first objective is military. The IAF needs to restore combat mass. Squadron numbers have fallen too low, legacy fleets are ageing, and China is not waiting. The PLAAF is expanding, modernising and absorbing new platforms at a tempo India cannot ignore. In that context, the 114 Rafale programme is not primarily an industrial policy project. It is first and foremost a combat power project.
The second objective is industrial. India obviously wants localisation, private-sector aerospace capacity, Indian weapons integration, MRO, supply-chain development and long-term manufacturing know-how. All of that is legitimate. But it must remain the second objective, not the first one. Make in India should support Indian air power, not delay it.
If India turns the Rafale acquisition into another endless negotiation about localisation percentages, source code fantasies, partner selection, licences, audits and technology transfer, then the IAF will lose more time. And time is the one thing India does not have. Every year spent negotiating the perfect industrial package is another year in which squadron strength remains inadequate and the PLAAF keeps growing.
The right hierarchy should be simple.
The same applies to source code. India does not need full access to the deepest mission-system source code of Rafale’s radar, EW suite or sensor-fusion architecture. No serious manufacturer will hand over that level of proprietary and sovereign technology. What India needs is practical sovereignty: documented interfaces, qualification procedures, integration tools, and enough freedom to integrate Indian weapons, pods, datalinks and mission-specific systems. That is how India can create an Indian Rafale branch, just as the Su-30MKI became an Indian branch of the Su-30 family.
The danger is not that Rafale will fail India. The danger is that India delays Rafale by asking the programme to solve every industrial ambition at once.
The IAF needs aircraft. It needs deterrence. It needs squadron strength. It needs credible long-range strike, air superiority and survivable multirole capacity against China and Pakistan. Industrial benefits are essential, but they are a dividend of the programme, not the reason to slow it down.
A simple rule should guide the deal:
Make in India must increase Indian air power, not postpone it.
The first objective is military. The IAF needs to restore combat mass. Squadron numbers have fallen too low, legacy fleets are ageing, and China is not waiting. The PLAAF is expanding, modernising and absorbing new platforms at a tempo India cannot ignore. In that context, the 114 Rafale programme is not primarily an industrial policy project. It is first and foremost a combat power project.
The second objective is industrial. India obviously wants localisation, private-sector aerospace capacity, Indian weapons integration, MRO, supply-chain development and long-term manufacturing know-how. All of that is legitimate. But it must remain the second objective, not the first one. Make in India should support Indian air power, not delay it.
If India turns the Rafale acquisition into another endless negotiation about localisation percentages, source code fantasies, partner selection, licences, audits and technology transfer, then the IAF will lose more time. And time is the one thing India does not have. Every year spent negotiating the perfect industrial package is another year in which squadron strength remains inadequate and the PLAAF keeps growing.
The right hierarchy should be simple.
- First, restore IAF combat capability as quickly as possible.
- Second, ensure continuity with the existing Rafale fleet and upgrade it to F4.
- Third, secure the interfaces, ICDs and integration rights needed for Indian weapons and systems.
- Fourth, build the Indian Rafale industrial ecosystem progressively, with localisation increasing over successive batches.
The same applies to source code. India does not need full access to the deepest mission-system source code of Rafale’s radar, EW suite or sensor-fusion architecture. No serious manufacturer will hand over that level of proprietary and sovereign technology. What India needs is practical sovereignty: documented interfaces, qualification procedures, integration tools, and enough freedom to integrate Indian weapons, pods, datalinks and mission-specific systems. That is how India can create an Indian Rafale branch, just as the Su-30MKI became an Indian branch of the Su-30 family.
The danger is not that Rafale will fail India. The danger is that India delays Rafale by asking the programme to solve every industrial ambition at once.
The IAF needs aircraft. It needs deterrence. It needs squadron strength. It needs credible long-range strike, air superiority and survivable multirole capacity against China and Pakistan. Industrial benefits are essential, but they are a dividend of the programme, not the reason to slow it down.
A simple rule should guide the deal:
Make in India must increase Indian air power, not postpone it.
Are we designing any dual or triple ejector racks for Rafale? I know we have a quad rack for SAAW.
People pushing the source code narrative for MRFA are a combination of ones wishing for India's military to fail or are just useful idiots falling into a trap set by the former with half-baked information.
Shoring up numbers has become even more important since LCA Mk1A got delayed. We should have been up by 50+ Mk1As by this year, and all 83 by the end of 2027, with over 150 operational by 2030 and the full fleet of 180 by 2031, ie, even before the first MRFA squadron was to become operational.
For what type of weapons?
Rafale already carries enough AAMs. It will get the quad pack for SAAW.
Hammer comes with dual and triple ejector racks.
We are not demanding source-code, but just ICD access and post which this deal is a go. Until then, it won't be signed.
The simplest option would be to make it compatible with Hammer's racks.
We have to see how DRDO plans it for the entire HSLD line-up.
Example of the anti-French/anti-Indian lobby with their fake news.
quwa.org
India’s defence procurement follows a multi-stage bureaucratic process, and the RFP – now finalized – sits at approximately Step 4 of a 12-step sequence that must run its full course before a contract can be signed.8
What the RFP does is formally invite Dassault to submit sealed technical and commercial proposals, after which the Technical Evaluation Committee (TEC) reviews the technical bid, Field Evaluation Trials (FET) may follow (though these could be abbreviated given the Rafale is already in IAF service), and a staff evaluation is completed.
The difficult negotiations begin after all of that – i.e., at the Contract Negotiation Committee (CNC) and Price Negotiation Committee (PNC) stage, where both sides will hash out source code access, Interface Control Document (ICD) terms, indigenization schedules, offsets, and pricing.8
CCS (Cabinet Committee on Security) approval and CFA (Competent Financial Authority) clearance follow, and only then does the contract get signed – a sequence that, even under smooth conditions, typically requires 12–18 months from RFP issuance for deals of this scale.
An attempt to sow doubt in the timeframe of the deal.
India’s 114 Rafale Deal and France’s Structural Leverage Problem - Quwa
The $36–40 billion deal for 114 Rafale F4s would be the largest single Rafale order in history. But the RFP sits at Step 4 of a 12-step procurement process, and the real negotiation — over source code, ICD access, and indigenization — hasn't started. France's reluctance is structural, not...
quwa.org
What the RFP does is formally invite Dassault to submit sealed technical and commercial proposals, after which the Technical Evaluation Committee (TEC) reviews the technical bid, Field Evaluation Trials (FET) may follow (though these could be abbreviated given the Rafale is already in IAF service), and a staff evaluation is completed.
The difficult negotiations begin after all of that – i.e., at the Contract Negotiation Committee (CNC) and Price Negotiation Committee (PNC) stage, where both sides will hash out source code access, Interface Control Document (ICD) terms, indigenization schedules, offsets, and pricing.8
CCS (Cabinet Committee on Security) approval and CFA (Competent Financial Authority) clearance follow, and only then does the contract get signed – a sequence that, even under smooth conditions, typically requires 12–18 months from RFP issuance for deals of this scale.
An attempt to sow doubt in the timeframe of the deal.
They could have said, “A process that, even under favorable conditions, typically takes 12 to 18 months from the publication of the request for proposals for contracts of this scale in most countries, but can take up to eight times as long in India.”
Hopefully we sign Rafale deal by the end of this year itself.They could have said, “A process that, even under favorable conditions, typically takes 12 to 18 months from the publication of the request for proposals for contracts of this scale in most countries, but can take up to eight times as long in India.”
India moves closer to mega Rafale fighter jet deal, finalises request letter
India has finalised a Letter of Request to France for 114 Rafale fighter aircraft. The proposed deal pairs a major local manufacturing push with a wider India-France defence partnership.
India has finalised the Letter of Request (LoR) for the acquisition of 114 Rafale fighter aircraft for the Indian Air Force and is expected to send it to France within the next few weeks, sources said.
Under the proposed deal, nearly 90 of the 114 fighter jets are planned to be manufactured in India through a partnership between French aerospace company Dassault Aviation and an Indian firm. The remaining aircraft are expected to be delivered in fly-away condition.
Sources told India Today TV that once France responds to the LoR, India will move ahead with issuing the formal Request for Proposal (RFP) for the procurement.
The LoR is a formal government-to-government communication used to initiate defence procurement under the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) or Intergovernmental Agreement (IGA) framework.
The Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) has already cleared the procurement proposal for the Indian Air Force. After the LoR is sent, France is expected to respond with details related to pricing, availability and logistical support, following which negotiations between the two sides will begin.
The final contract will require approval from the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) before it can be signed.
The Indian Air Force already has 36 Rafale fighter jets in service, while the Navy is preparing to induct 26 Rafale M aircraft for carrier-based operations in the coming years. Acquiring more Rafales is also expected to reduce logistics, maintenance and training expenses due to the existing operational ecosystem.
Meanwhile, New Delhi has also pressed the French side to expand the role of Indian companies in the Rafale production ecosystem, seeking up to 50 per cent indigenous content in the fighter jets proposed for India. The demand is expected to feature in Dassault Aviation's bid for the Indian Air Force's planned procurement of 114 multirole fighter aircraft.
The focus on domestic manufacturing is in line with India's broader Make in India initiative as well as France's push for strategic autonomy, both of which are emerging as key pillars of the growing industrial partnership between the two countries.
Officials said future defence collaborations, including fighter aircraft production and combat engine development, are expected to be driven by co-design and co-production models.
The Defence Acquisition Council's clearance for the procurement of 114 next-generation multirole fighter aircraft has accelerated discussions, with the expanded Rafale programme emerging as a leading contender. If the deal goes through, it would become one of India's biggest defence acquisitions and signal a transition from a traditional buyer-seller arrangement to a long-term industrial partnership centred on joint design, development and manufacturing.
India has finalised a Letter of Request to France for 114 Rafale fighter aircraft. The proposed deal pairs a major local manufacturing push with a wider India-France defence partnership.
India has finalised the Letter of Request (LoR) for the acquisition of 114 Rafale fighter aircraft for the Indian Air Force and is expected to send it to France within the next few weeks, sources said.
Under the proposed deal, nearly 90 of the 114 fighter jets are planned to be manufactured in India through a partnership between French aerospace company Dassault Aviation and an Indian firm. The remaining aircraft are expected to be delivered in fly-away condition.
Sources told India Today TV that once France responds to the LoR, India will move ahead with issuing the formal Request for Proposal (RFP) for the procurement.
The LoR is a formal government-to-government communication used to initiate defence procurement under the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) or Intergovernmental Agreement (IGA) framework.
The Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) has already cleared the procurement proposal for the Indian Air Force. After the LoR is sent, France is expected to respond with details related to pricing, availability and logistical support, following which negotiations between the two sides will begin.
The final contract will require approval from the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) before it can be signed.
The Indian Air Force already has 36 Rafale fighter jets in service, while the Navy is preparing to induct 26 Rafale M aircraft for carrier-based operations in the coming years. Acquiring more Rafales is also expected to reduce logistics, maintenance and training expenses due to the existing operational ecosystem.
Meanwhile, New Delhi has also pressed the French side to expand the role of Indian companies in the Rafale production ecosystem, seeking up to 50 per cent indigenous content in the fighter jets proposed for India. The demand is expected to feature in Dassault Aviation's bid for the Indian Air Force's planned procurement of 114 multirole fighter aircraft.
The focus on domestic manufacturing is in line with India's broader Make in India initiative as well as France's push for strategic autonomy, both of which are emerging as key pillars of the growing industrial partnership between the two countries.
Officials said future defence collaborations, including fighter aircraft production and combat engine development, are expected to be driven by co-design and co-production models.
The Defence Acquisition Council's clearance for the procurement of 114 next-generation multirole fighter aircraft has accelerated discussions, with the expanded Rafale programme emerging as a leading contender. If the deal goes through, it would become one of India's biggest defence acquisitions and signal a transition from a traditional buyer-seller arrangement to a long-term industrial partnership centred on joint design, development and manufacturing.
. Hopefully French have no problem in sharing Rafale's ICD access with us.
LoR, Reply to Lor, RFP, reply to RFP. 2027 UP elections, 2028 general elections. 2029 hopefully close to placement of order. 2029 huge tech change, because Russians offered tech with Su-57.
New bone, so pause while we discuss the details of Su-57 new offer instead of Rafale.
Circus he circus.
Decide kar diya, buy the damned thing. We will be fighting wars against 6th generation opponents wih 4.5 gen.
Or don't buy it and put all your money behind the LCA evolving to the AMCA. And buy the Su-30 MKI.
New bone, so pause while we discuss the details of Su-57 new offer instead of Rafale.
Circus he circus.
Decide kar diya, buy the damned thing. We will be fighting wars against 6th generation opponents wih 4.5 gen.
Or don't buy it and put all your money behind the LCA evolving to the AMCA. And buy the Su-30 MKI.
The roadmap for acquiring 114+ Rafales has firmly been set by IAF. Only bone is ICD level access. If the French are willing then the deal should be signed by the end of this caledar year or by then end of FY27. There is no if or but regarding this.
And for the umpteenth time, Su-57 has nothing to do with Rafale. Both are getting procured for different reasons. One to address low squadron problem and as our future workhorse(to sustain high-tempo Ops over a long time) and the other as our next tip of the spear and our counter to the growing Chinese/future Pakistani 5th gen fleet. Again, there is no if or but regarding this as well.
In this case, Letter of Request, RFP, negotiations.
LoR is sent to foreign govt. They give that to FOEM, which creates a list of capabilities on offer and price. Then IAF issues RFP. MoD nominates FOEM for negotiations. The only headache at this point is the CFA, Competent Financial Authority. They decide whether the deal is financially worth pursuing. Once they clear it, then CCS approval and contract signature.
Any tech change will impact follow-on orders of Rafale. The current one is for proven capabilities, ie, 5 F4 squadrons, apart from 1 F5 squadron. If the IAF decides to skip to a new jet instead of placing more orders for Rafale F5s, then things will change.
Have amateur experts here paused to consider the effects the war against Iran is having on our economy & it's potential after effects on the defence budget ?
We're just a few months into the new fiscal . The full impact of the war on the economy can be gauged around mid FY in September - October. I've my doubts if the budgeted amount will be fully utilised.
Assuming the sanctioned budget is indeed fully utilised I don't expect a corresponding growth in next year's defence budget like we saw this year over last year's budget .
What that means is long term projects could get longer . No clue what it'd do to local projects which in any case is meandering for one reason or another.
Oil market disruption is temporary, not a systemic issue. Once markets stabilize, normalcy will be restored quickly. Loss of demand elsewhere can offset the losses we have faced to date.
The bigger problem is the super El Nino. But under Modi, irrigation networks have risen to 60% of farmlands compared to 45% in 2014. So only 30% of farmlands can be severely impacted, but the actual impact is 20% 'cause some of that 10% is rain-fed, like NE India. Far better than the 45% vulnerability in 2015-16.
The IAF has sufficient budget and no big money has been spent on new jets since the 36-jet deal in 2016. New big ticket contracts are still 3 years away. Most of the Mk1A payments have already gone out, it should be within the 10-30% margin to be paid out until 2029.
MRFA's initial payment is just 10%, larger sums only go out from the second year, with 50% paid by the end of the third year. Overall it's peanuts.
From 2014-19, we had internal systemic issues. Today there's nothing since it was fixed by the end of 2021, and we had sufficient funding for military programs in 2022 even after the COVID shock and oil prices crossed $100 due to the Ukraine War. The defense capital budget still saw dramatic increases after 2022 and that has continued since. We saw budget increases even during the 2023-24 El Nino. The last year, we saw a 22% boost.
The bigger problem is the super El Nino. But under Modi, irrigation networks have risen to 60% of farmlands compared to 45% in 2014. So only 30% of farmlands can be severely impacted, but the actual impact is 20% 'cause some of that 10% is rain-fed, like NE India. Far better than the 45% vulnerability in 2015-16.
The IAF has sufficient budget and no big money has been spent on new jets since the 36-jet deal in 2016. New big ticket contracts are still 3 years away. Most of the Mk1A payments have already gone out, it should be within the 10-30% margin to be paid out until 2029.
MRFA's initial payment is just 10%, larger sums only go out from the second year, with 50% paid by the end of the third year. Overall it's peanuts.
From 2014-19, we had internal systemic issues. Today there's nothing since it was fixed by the end of 2021, and we had sufficient funding for military programs in 2022 even after the COVID shock and oil prices crossed $100 due to the Ukraine War. The defense capital budget still saw dramatic increases after 2022 and that has continued since. We saw budget increases even during the 2023-24 El Nino. The last year, we saw a 22% boost.