Project 75 India Diesel-electric Submarine Programs (SSK) : Updates and Discussions

[randomradio]

Agreed.

But it has no place on a submarine. For land strike missions , something like MdCN/Tomahawk/1000km range Club fits the bill and for anti ship missions Harpoon/Exocet type short range systems.

Simply because we have Brahmos or its successor coming doesn't mean we have to have it everywhere.

It's idiotic to force a submarine to take on anti shipping duties for anything more than 50-60 kilometres. That is not what submarines are for.

Coming to our HWT program, as I said , Submarines shouldn't be held hostage to desi solutions shenanigans. Having a HWT with performance parameters of a 2000s era torpedo vs having a torpedo with Multirole capability alone makes all the difference in a war.

And I am only supporting the French package because it removes the integration and certification delays and buying all proven systems from a single source gives us leverage to get discounts or some Technology consultations.

This doesn't happen with any other sources.

Submarines can perform anti-shipping duties from long range. They use networked data using comm satellites for targeting. The same way they do it for land attack. The Russian Yasen class use Oniks for the anti-ship role, carries a maximum of 32 using VLS. They will likely upgrade it to Zircon in later batches.

Integrating and certifying weapons on a sub's VLS won't take time. It's quite easy actually. It's not an aircraft. The French weapons package is a complete waste of money when we have our own becoming available by then. If Brahmos II becomes available for the P-75I, then the entire French package will be obsolete in comparison.

250 Flankers vs 350 flankers is not a big difference.

But 12 SSK vs 60 SSK is a big difference.

I never said that ignore China as a adversary. I said we shouldn't bother with China having 3 or 4 production line , simply because we do not have any such plans for numbers like they do.

Our submarine building program is comparable to France or UK and learnings should come from there only.

Actually there's no difference there as well. It only means the Chinese can afford taking more losses than we can. Our SSKs are not meant to go into the SCS, the closest they will go to China is the chokepoints in SE Asia. To ensure we have 24/7 coverage at two chokepoints, we need 6 submarines, which allows 4 operational subs and 2 docked.

Also, I don't think our SSKs will fight Chinese SSKs, since even they are unlikely to cross the chokepoints from their side. So the main threat will be ships and SSNs. Basically, I am saying we are not facing the Chinese SSK threat within the IOR, but it's the SSN threat we have to deal with. In exchange, our ships and SSNs will have to face their SSKs in their waters, if we ever cross into the SCS during war.

 

[randomradio]

18 subs in say 20-25 years. Compare that to us with 6 SSK in 14 years and plans for another 6. We cannot think to replicate their success because we are not matching their scale of production.

Actually, we just broke.

 

[Bon Plan]

The Chinese have set up a massive SSN production plan. The rumours say they have 4 parallel lines for the Type 095. This means they plan on inducting 4 SSNs a year.

If China can finance and built 4 SSN a year, US navy leadership will vanish in a decade. Not a good news for India and for the whole world.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

If China can finance and built 4 SSN a year, US navy leadership will vanish in a decade. Not a good news for India and for the whole world.

They can build 10 SSNs but that won't suddenly make them the No1. A lot of money goes into simply keep the vessels operational.

In their missile attack boat fleet only they hold more anti ship missiles than the USN. The problem is, how many of them can they operate.

Maybe 10 more years when China can match the funding levels of USA , that's when problems may arise.

 

[_Anonymous_]

They can build 10 SSNs but that won't suddenly make them the No1. A lot of money goes into simply keep the vessels operational.

In their missile attack boat fleet only they hold more anti ship missiles than the USN. The problem is, how many of them can they operate.

Maybe 10 more years when China can match the funding levels of USA , that's when problems may arise.

I sincerely hope you guys aren't actually believing this drivel about 4 SSNs being churned out p.a. & then getting into a lengthy infructous debate over it.

 

[randomradio]

If China can finance and built 4 SSN a year, US navy leadership will vanish in a decade. Not a good news for India and for the whole world.

It won't start as soon as that. The Chinese have recently set up a new submarine factory in Bohai. There are 3 bays, each can build 2 submarines, so 2 SSNs each or and 1 large displacement SSBN each. So 2 can build 4 Type 095 and 1 can build 1 Type 096. And this not including the ones that they originally had for older submarines. Analysts claim the old ones can't be used to build large beam subs, hence the new facility.

~290m long, 135m wide assembly area. You can clearly make out the 3 bays.

Anyway, they need to build the first class of Type 095, complete the R&D and testing cycle before mass production, which could take at least 5 years from the time it's laid down. So 2 to 4 SSNs in the first 5-7 years and then 2-4 SSNs every year after that, possibly settling at 4 SSNs a year around 2030.

This is the best estimate for the coming decade.

China’s global Navy eyeing sea control by 2030, superiority by 2049 - The Sunday Guardian Live

I assess that the PLA Navy by 2030 will consist of a surface force of over 450 ships and a submarine force approaching 110 submarines, an almost 10%

www.sundayguardianlive.com

As for the number of PLA Navy submarines that can be expected in the future, given the expected increased production from a new production facility in Huludao, the PRC may be able to launch up to two SSNs and one SSBN annually, meaning the PLA Navy could have as many as 24 SSNs and 14 SSBNs by 2030. These are SSBNs that most assuredly will have missiles pointed at the United States, but also India. And while some may scoff at this estimate, recall as late as a decade ago similar doubts existed for Chinese destroyer production.

They currently operate 12 SSNs, but 3 are expected to retire soon, which makes it 9. So that's 15 SSNs expected to be added this decade. And the author considers even this to be a low estimate.

The USN is recommending a plan to build 3 SSNs a year, they currently manage 2 per year. And that is up and above their existing fleet. With their current plan, the USN should have 41 or 42 SSNs to PLAN's estimated 24 by 2030. So I don't think the PLAN will overtake the USN within a decade. With the new plan, they will get to their recommended 66 boats by 2030.

But it sure looks like PLAN will manage local parity or superiority over the USN before 2030 during peacetime, considering the US has to operate all over the world.

Post 2030 will be interesting. India may also join the mass production game by then. We will have the finances for it at the very least. And it increasingly appears UK and France will have to assist the USN in Europe with a larger fleet after 2030 so the US can concentrate in the Pacific.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Chinese Increasing Nuclear Submarine Shipyard Capacity - USNI News

As China pushes to become a blue-water power, nuclear-powered submarines are critically important to Beijing’s plan. Historically the Chinese Navy’s (PLAN) nuclear-powered submarine fleet has been constrained by its limited construction capacity. There is only one shipyard in the country up to...

news.usni.org

Chinese Increasing Nuclear Submarine Shipyard Capacity​

By: H I Sutton
October 12, 2020 11:42 AM

H I Sutton Image. Used with permission


As China pushes to become a blue-water power, nuclear-powered submarines are critically important to Beijing’s plan. Historically the Chinese Navy’s (PLAN) nuclear-powered submarine fleet has been constrained by its limited construction capacity. There is only one shipyard in the country up to the task. But that yard has been undergoing a massive enlargement. And now, recent satellite imagery suggests an additional capacity expansion.


China’s nuclear-powered submarine fleet was already expected to get much larger in the coming years. This latest development suggests that China could pump out submarines at an even greater rate.
Just how many nuclear submarines China will build over the next ten years is a hot topic. The Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) recently forecast China’s submarine fleet to grow by six nuclear-powered attack submarines by 2030. Other observers, such as retired Capt. James Fanell who was Director of Intelligence and Information Operations for the U.S. Navy’s Pacific Fleet, place their estimates even higher.

What seems clear is that the number of nuclear submarines will increase.
Analysis of commercial satellite imagery reveals work on a new construction hall at the Bohai Shipyard at Huludao. The building appears to be essentially identical to the one built there in 2015. That is widely believed to be for the construction of a new generation of nuclear submarines.


The new hall is estimated to be large enough to allow construction of two submarines simultaneously. When added to the other hall recently constructed, that would allow four boats to be in the sheds at once. And there is another much older construction hall at the other end of the site which, if still active, could add another. So four or five boats at once.
The nuclear submarines include both ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) and attack submarines (SSN). All nuclear submarines are built at the Bohai shipyard, so its capacity will be a major factor in the total fleet strength.


China’s naval growth has not gone unnoticed in Washington. In response, the U.S. Navy will have to adjust. Outlining the proposed Battle Force 2045, Defense Secretary Mark Esper said that the U.S. must begin building three Virginia Class submarines per year as soon as possible. This would build a “larger and more capable submarine force”. The proposed force will include 70-80 attack submarines, described as “the most survival strike platform in a future great powers conflict”.


There are three new classes of submarine which might be built at Bohai. The most straightforward is the Type-09IIIB (also written Type-093B). This is an iterative improvement on the current Type-09IIIA Shang-II Class submarine. The main improvement expected is the inclusion of cruise missiles in vertical launch tubes. These will allow it to carry an increased load of cruise missiles, improving its strategic strike capability. The YJ-18 cruise missiles are generally analogous to the Russian Kalibr family of missiles. China already operates Kalibr from some of its submarines.


More advanced than the Type-09III family is the next-generation Type-09V Tang Class (aka Type -095). This is expected to be everything the Type-09IIIB is, and also stealthier.
The third projected type is a next-generation ballistic missile submarine (SSBN). the Type-09VI (Type-096) will follow the current generation Type-09IV Jin Class (Type-094). They are expected to augment the six Type-09IV instead of replacing them, leading to a net increase in China’s SSBN fleet. The 2020 China Military Power Report to Congress projected an increase to eight SSBNs by 2030.


At this stage we are still learning new details of the Bohai shipyard expansion. We have yet to see any submarines roll out of the new halls. And it is possible that the newest shed may be intended for some other purpose. But the takeaway is that China is transforming its submarine construction capabilities. The work at Huludao will remove the physical constraint which previously limited their nuclear navy.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

I sincerely hope you guys aren't actually believing this drivel about 4 SSNs being churned out p.a. & then getting into a lengthy infructous debate over it.

1 nuclear boat a year for next 7-8 years is what I see for PLAN.

Again more than anything it's the resources available to PLAN to operate certain numbers which will play a key role.

 

[randomradio]

1 nuclear boat a year for next 7-8 years is what I see for PLAN.

They seem to have achieved that already. Almost their entire fleet came in

The old facility should already have enough space to build at least 2 or 3 SSNs at once. The new facility definitely has enough space for 4 at once, or 6 worst case.

This excessive capacity is a dead giveaway to what's being planned.

Again more than anything it's the resources available to PLAN to operate certain numbers which will play a key role.

Resources are not a problem for them. They are building up towards getting more resources than the USN, they seem to have already achieved that considering they now have 2 active lines for carriers. In fact their electronics industry and shipbuilding prices are so less than they get significantly more value for every dollar spent.

 

[Bon Plan]

Chinese new SSN :

The Chinese Navy's Most Powerful Attack Submarine: The Type-093A - Naval News

Submarine expert H I Sutton takes a close look at China's Type 039A submarine and explains what makes it the most powerful attack submarine in the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN)'s arsenal.

www.navalnews.com

 

[Bon Plan]

Resources are not a problem for them. They are building up towards getting more resources than the USN, they seem to have already achieved that considering they now have 2 active lines for carriers. In fact their electronics industry and shipbuilding prices are so less than they get significantly more value for every dollar spent.

As for now they are far away of being equal to USN : far less carriers, far less SSN, carriers less efficient, lacks of experience.... USN have for at least a decade the lead. But after that....
Just an asset for chinese navy : it is not spread all around the world. But in case of a hard crisis, USN may regroup 90% of its strength in the sole pacific ocean.

 

[randomradio]

As for now they are far away of being equal to USN : far less carriers, far less SSN, carriers less efficient, lacks of experience.... USN have for at least a decade the lead. But after that....

Definitely. The way they are building their navy, it's going to happen very soon.

Just an asset for chinese navy : it is not spread all around the world.

Won't be a problem. Lots of African nations will give them bases in their countries. Djibouti has already done it. Next up may be Ghana or Angola. If Russia and China get close enough, we can expect Chinese presence in the Baltic Sea, and there's always the Barents as well.

They may forward deploy their ships and SSKs in foreign ports.

But in case of a hard crisis, USN may regroup 90% of its strength in the sole pacific ocean.

Honestly, I don't think whatever the USN is doing will be enough after the decade is up.

And if you compare that to India's attempt with the P-75I, we are not even going to be a player by 2030. We are lagging so far behind in the game that we will be no different from how we do in the Olympics.

 

[hellbent]

Lol at this rate India won't even matter

Only option remaining is massive increase of nukes as a deterrent , enough to create doubts in their minds before trying to tackle us conventionally.

Otherwise we are done for , conventionally we will be wiped out within days.

 

[Bon Plan]

Lol at this rate India won't even matter

Only option remaining is massive increase of nukes as a deterrent , enough to create doubts in their minds before trying to tackle us conventionally.

Otherwise we are done for , conventionally we will be wiped out within days.

As the General De Gaulle said to a US President about the relatively small French deterrence (comparing to US one) : it is useless to destroy 40 times your ennemy ! the first time is enough.
It is more the ability to your nukes to penetrate into the ennemy territory than the numbers which is key.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

Lol at this rate India won't even matter

Only option remaining is massive increase of nukes as a deterrent , enough to create doubts in their minds before trying to tackle us conventionally.

Otherwise we are done for , conventionally we will be wiped out within days.

It's not exactly a chess between two players , there are multiple factors dictating everything and their effects.

We need to have a capability alone enough which acts as a deterrent to China as of now and next 15 years. Maybe 8% for next 15 years and then we can change our posture to aggressive.

 

[randomradio]

Lol at this rate India won't even matter

Only option remaining is massive increase of nukes as a deterrent , enough to create doubts in their minds before trying to tackle us conventionally.

Otherwise we are done for , conventionally we will be wiped out within days.

For deterrence, whatever we have today is enough. And we are building SSBNs with MIRVed-ICBMs on top of that. So we are well set on the deterrence front, and we know it's a priority, so there's nothing to worry about here.

Conventionally, in the mountains we are fine, in the air we will be all right very soon. At sea, we can play with them on our side since we can almost guarantee air superiority over our own waters.

The Chinese SSN threat is mid to long term, not short term. We have to start worrying once the Chinese start matching US force levels. At least by then we will have the funds necessary to start competing.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

For deterrence, whatever we have today is enough. And we are building SSBNs with MIRVed-ICBMs on top of that. So we are well set on the deterrence front, and we know it's a priority, so there's nothing to worry about here.

Conventionally, in the mountains we are fine, in the air we will be all right very soon. At sea, we can play with them on our side since we can almost guarantee air superiority over our own waters.

The Chinese SSN threat is mid to long term, not short term. We have to start worrying once the Chinese start matching US force levels. At least by then we will have the funds necessary to start competing.

The answer is QUAD

https://twitter.com/x/status/1328684194298429440

 

[randomradio]

It's not exactly a chess between two players , there are multiple factors dictating everything and their effects.

We need to have a capability alone enough which acts as a deterrent to China as of now and next 15 years. Maybe 8% for next 15 years and then we can change our posture to aggressive.

Only by ourselves, 8% over the next 15 years will only allow us to become a player, and only for defence and sea denial. Think about it, at best we will have only 6 SSNs by then, and we will have ordered 6-12 more by then.

We can't become aggressive against the Chinese for at least 20+years. We actually need the US to be aggressive and buy time for India to catch up.

Doval was talking about how India can't catch up with the Chinese CNP until at least 2050.

 

[randomradio]

The answer is QUAD

https://twitter.com/x/status/1328684194298429440

How is QUAD the answer? As I've said, we won't even be a player.

The only players are US, UK and France. Apart from Russia and China. Everyone else are merely participants.

IN was hoping India would be a player with the third carrier and SSN force by 2035, but even that's currently a dream right now.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

Only by ourselves, 8% over the next 15 years will only allow us to become a player, and only for defence and sea denial. Think about it, at best we will have only 6 SSNs by then, and we will have ordered 6-12 more by then.

We can't become aggressive against the Chinese for at least 20+years. We actually need the US to be aggressive and buy time for India to catch up.

Doval was talking about how India can't catch up with the Chinese CNP until at least 2050.

The term aggressive is again vague here. As to what we really aim to realistically have a minimum credible capability without outside support against them and when we say either a defensive or aggressive posture, what do we actually mean.

When I say aggressive, it means total control of crucial entry exit points and ensuring freedom of navigation under international rules in whole of IOR all the while having Western fleet to take on all of PN while the eastern fleet capable of ensuring safety against an not friendly BN and MN in BoB region.

Any commitment out side IOR will be under other powers. In Pacific region, it will be under USN of course.

And if we are able to have 10-12 SSNs and 12-18 SSKs in next 15 years, that is more than enough for us to be aggressive.

3-4 SSNs (1 supporting the SSBN, 1 supporting CBG and 1-2 deployed in open IOR ) at a given time can ensure any advantage which PLAN may have even with based in Mid East , Pakistan, Srilanka, Maldives, Bangladesh and Myanmar , and say two full fledged CBGs, can be effectively neutralized.

Having equipment is one thing , having the capability to actually operate all of them to their design extent is another. Royal Navy is a well known example and Germany is another. They have much bigger economy than India but struggle to have enough crew even to operate more than 2 of their submarines at once , even if all of them were in perfect condition.

And this problem will be increase manifolds for PLAN simply because they do not have the resources and technolocal capability as of yet of west. That's why in one previous post as I said, they may well have well over 100s of missile boats, how many of them are actually used? More than half of them are stored over land.

I am not saying that China will be easy to defeat in 15 years. I am saying that we will be able to maintain a aggressive posture in our backyard.