Project 75 India Diesel-electric Submarine Programs (SSK) : Updates and Discussions

Who will win the P75I program?

  • L&T and Navantia

    Votes: 14 37.8%
  • MDL and TKMS

    Votes: 9 24.3%
  • It will get canceled eventually

    Votes: 14 37.8%

  • Total voters
    37
The answer is adoption of Soviet Naval strategy. SSNs, multi platform based ASW capability , Anti Ship Missiles equipped smaller Vessels in large numbers and heavy deployment of Coastal Multi layered Anti Ship and Anti Air batteries around important naval based and choke points.


CBGs ain't the answer against a foe like China.
 
The term aggressive is again vague here. As to what we really aim to realistically have a minimum credible capability without outside support against them and when we say either a defensive or aggressive posture, what do we actually mean.

When I say aggressive, it means total control of crucial entry exit points and ensuring freedom of navigation under international rules in whole of IOR all the while having Western fleet to take on all of PN while the eastern fleet capable of ensuring safety against an not friendly BN and MN in BoB region.

Any commitment out side IOR will be under other powers. In Pacific region, it will be under USN of course.

We are already doing that. That's basically sea denial.

And if we are able to have 10-12 SSNs and 12-18 SSKs in next 15 years, that is more than enough for us to be aggressive.

Thats actually the problem. I doubt we will have even 2 or 3 indigenous SSNs by 2035. This program requires a level of push that we can't afford today.

The SSKs will be manageable, we should have 19 in service in 2035 if things go according to plan, with 7 approaching end of life though.

Having equipment is one thing , having the capability to actually operate all of them to their design extent is another. Royal Navy is a well known example and Germany is another. They have much bigger economy than India but struggle to have enough crew even to operate more than 2 of their submarines at once , even if all of them were in perfect condition.

For them it's a budget problem. They simply do not believe they need more than necessary when it comes to operating their military. The threat they face is not strong enough right now. You should see the size of the military when the Soviet Union existed.

And this problem will be increase manifolds for PLAN simply because they do not have the resources and technolocal capability as of yet of west. That's why in one previous post as I said, they may well have well over 100s of missile boats, how many of them are actually used? More than half of them are stored over land.

I am not saying that China will be easy to defeat in 15 years. I am saying that we will be able to maintain a aggressive posture in our backyard.

You are understimating China far too much. They have always had men, and saying they won't be able to man their ships is the least of their problems.

I remember that 15 years ago news came out that the Chinese plan to operate over 650 Flankers. This was around the time where there was no news about the J-10. An IAF pilot claimed that they will face manpower issues. But they didn't. Now they already operate over 500 Flankers and production is still going strong. And on top of that they have around 500 J-10s. They have far surpassed the pilot's expectations.

Let's not forget that the USN had built well over 1500 ships, including nearly 30 large aircraft carriers during WW2, alongside dozens of smaller carriers, which was achieved with a population of just 130 million people. You should google the Okinawa ORBAT. China can always repeat this feat in their sleep. They have 1.4 billion people after all. The Chinese are now sitting at the adults' table.
 
Since we have only two Indian companies in the running, there can only be two OEMs out of five. And I think it's going to be France and Korea with their SMX 3.0 and KSS-III. SMX is offering 8 VLS and KSS-III is offering 10.

The Spanish design is a joke while the Russian design doesn't exist outside paper. At least the French design is a cousin of the Shortfin and will benefit from the Australian contract. The German design is a dark horse. The best option would be the Korean design since the Koreans will have the same Batch 2 sub before we do so it will mean faster induction with lesser problems.

The problem with the Germans is there are only two Indian companies in the running. The Koreans are well ahead of the competition with the KSS-III whereas the French have a significant presence in India already, especially with MDL's support. So, if the choice comes down to between Germany and France, I think the French will get in.
@randomradio 's SMX 3.0 is the @Lolwa 's F-15 of MMRCA thread. 🤷‍♂️
 
Smx 3 actually makes more economic sense compared to the f15 though. Plus MdCN is a cool capability for the IN to have...
Still, yet to offer it as the contender for P75I. Only RFP will clarify what IN wants, shortfin barracuda, or anything else. DRDO developed SLCM will be the primary LACM nothing else.
 
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Still, yet to offer it as the contender for P75I. Only RFP will clarify what IN wants, shortfin barracuda, or anything else. DRDO developed SLCM will be the primary LACM nothing else.
So it's similar to MMRCA's ASQR then. We are getting unnecessarily excited...
 
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For deterrence, whatever we have today is enough. And we are building SSBNs with MIRVed-ICBMs on top of that. So we are well set on the deterrence front, and we know it's a priority, so there's nothing to worry about here.

Conventionally, in the mountains we are fine, in the air we will be all right very soon. At sea, we can play with them on our side since we can almost guarantee air superiority over our own waters.

The Chinese SSN threat is mid to long term, not short term. We have to start worrying once the Chinese start matching US force levels. At least by then we will have the funds necessary to start competing.

No I will disagree , what we have for deterrence is low and inadequate.

Deterrence works on not what you consider to be adequate but on what your enemy starts to bulk at.

Chinese have enough hardened infrastructure ( built to defeat USSR and USA strikes ) that our counter force assets will run out before we can make any significant dent.

Conventionally we are fuked , our conventional weapon systems at tactical and intermediate level is inadequate , forget about strategic. Almost all are defensive systems , beyond 100 km range we don't have systems which can be mass deployed and cost effective. Battlefields are fluid and dynamic , one will not be able to retain advantage at tactical levels if one cannot concurrently push tactical advantage to intermediate and then to strategic levels via different conventional weapon systems with ranges to force a result at the respective 3 levels.

Long story short we simply lack mass produced and cheap offensive conventional weapon systems which can act as force multipliers beyond 100 km.

Once Chinese start matching US levels , then we will have the funds to start competing , seriously ? have you given a thought that Chinese might be thinking the same and preemptive that and restrict India by whatever means they deem fit.
 
As the General De Gaulle said to a US President about the relatively small French deterrence (comparing to US one) : it is useless to destroy 40 times your ennemy ! the first time is enough.
It is more the ability to your nukes to penetrate into the ennemy territory than the numbers which is key.

Your general is factually correct . Indian deterrence capabilities are no match for French deterrence capabilities one to one . Your assets are more potent and in numbers , than usually credit is given for. If I had the French capabilities and the no of assets ( not the ones in public domain ) I will certainly agree with your general.

I am sure more or less he would would have a similar opinion like mine had he been a general of India and factored in the wide disparity in capability between India and china and even more if he factored in the nut job country to the east into the mix.
 
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It's not exactly a chess between two players , there are multiple factors dictating everything and their effects.

We need to have a capability alone enough which acts as a deterrent to China as of now and next 15 years. Maybe 8% for next 15 years and then we can change our posture to aggressive.

As a citizen I(we) can only wish
 
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Don't have one.

The French offer is not the Scorpene since it won't meet the requirements of P-75I.

Also my preference is the Korean KSS-III Batch 2/3.
Where is the source for french offering SMX 3.0 instead of short-fin or enlarged Scorpene?
 
No I will disagree , what we have for deterrence is low and inadequate.

Deterrence works on not what you consider to be adequate but on what your enemy starts to bulk at.

Chinese have enough hardened infrastructure ( built to defeat USSR and USA strikes ) that our counter force assets will run out before we can make any significant dent.

We do not have nukes for warfighting purposes. I mean we do not plan on destroying all major military targets with nukes, we only plan on destroying major cities and ports, along with some crucial military targets. Our plan (not to my liking) is not total destruction unfortunately. Which is why we call it "minimum credible deterrence".

If you put a number on it, let's assume we can put one Arihant class on patrol 24/7 along with one S5 class. That will give us 8 K-4s with unitary warheads and let's assume 16 K-5s with 4 MIRVed nukes. That gives us 72 nukes. Let's assume we have the same number of nukes on land as well. So about 150 nukes in total by the time all the SSBNs are operational. 8 nukes on each city will more or less destroy at least 15 of their main cities while consuming 120 warheads. The remaining 30 dropped on military targets, bases, C&C nodes etc. That's enough of a threat to ensure deterrence.

Conventionally we are fuked , our conventional weapon systems at tactical and intermediate level is inadequate , forget about strategic. Almost all are defensive systems , beyond 100 km range we don't have systems which can be mass deployed and cost effective. Battlefields are fluid and dynamic , one will not be able to retain advantage at tactical levels if one cannot concurrently push tactical advantage to intermediate and then to strategic levels via different conventional weapon systems with ranges to force a result at the respective 3 levels.

Long story short we simply lack mass produced and cheap offensive conventional weapon systems which can act as force multipliers beyond 100 km.

Gotta agree with it, but only partially. Most of the enemy systems that's a threat to us are within that 100Km range, which is why we did not go for more range when it comes to ground based systems. Beyond that range we have fighter jets and attack helicopters. So the question should be if we have enough fighter jets for what we need done.

Also, due to the terrain facing China, more range is not useful. Penetrating the fog of war will be extremely difficult for the both of us. A lot of the weapons that the Chinese have that seem to give them an advantage are important for manoeuvre warfare, not mountain warfare, especially their tube artillery.

Once Chinese start matching US levels , then we will have the funds to start competing , seriously ? have you given a thought that Chinese might be thinking the same and preemptive that and restrict India by whatever means they deem fit.

How will they stop us? They can't. It's merely economic growth that all countries experience. Not to mention, both our economies are not intertwined to any such degree that they can impose costs on us. So, by the time the Chinese match the US in weapons and other capabilities, it's going to be well past 2030, by which time our economic might will easily be well over $10T and we will be able to build up the same way the Chinese are doing now.
 
Where is the source for french offering SMX 3.0 instead of short-fin or enlarged Scorpene?

There's nothing specific in terms of designation. All that the French have said is it will be based on the SMX 3.0. It will be customised to meet IN's RFP and will obviously carry a new designation. For example, SMX 3.0 has 8 VLS, but if IN insists on 10 or 12, then an extra module will have to be fitted to it forming a new sub-class, like SMX 3.0XL or a new name entirely, which will be a marketing gimmick more than anything else.

But there's no such thing as an enlarged Scorpene that will meet the RFP. You can only make the Scorpene longer, not fatter. If you make it fatter, then you call it something else entirely, since it's now of a different class. So no more Scorpene for P-75I. The beam is too small.

Also, it's unlikely for the IN to go for Shortfin or its derivative. It's a waste of money, whereas all reports point towards a design that's about 4000T submerged. Shortfin is too heavy at about 5500T.
 
There's nothing specific in terms of designation. All that the French have said is it will be based on the SMX 3.0. It will be customised to meet IN's RFP and will obviously carry a new designation. For example, SMX 3.0 has 8 VLS, but if IN insists on 10 or 12, then an extra module will have to be fitted to it forming a new sub-class, like SMX 3.0XL or a new name entirely, which will be a marketing gimmick more than anything else.
No one said any such thing. IN didn't even ask for VL as a must have. Even the French don't know what IN actually want without RFP. Give source for all these then we can talk.
 
No one said any such thing. IN didn't even ask for VL as a must have. Even the French don't know what IN actually want without RFP. Give source for all these then we can talk.

Plenty of things have already been said. RFI went out a long time ago, even before this forum was born. If you know how the process works, then you would understand that requirements are created based on information received in reply to the RFI. Forces don't simply make up requirements from thin air. RFP is created based on the submarines that OEMs offer through the RFI.

While final requirements will come out through the RFP, obviously, the RFI also reveals plenty of details about what the IN is looking for.

What's more, the RFP doesn't say "We want Shortfin or we want Amur". It simply lists specs and it's the OEMs that offer whatever they want that meets those specs, which are in turn set using the RFI. The submarines that the OEMs are participating with have already been decided, which is what "OEM has replied to the RFI" means. So the IN already knows the submarines that have been offered already. And Naval Group said in DefExpo 2020 that they have offered SMX 3.0 (a derivative that will meet RFP specs) for P-75I.

You will have to look for the source yourself, I don't know French.
 
Thats actually the problem. I doubt we will have even 2 or 3 indigenous SSNs by 2035. This program requires a level of push that we can't afford today.
That I agree on, I made a mistake. Considering an optimistic timeline for desi SSN project, maybe 3 desi SSNs and 1 Akula will be what we may have. That is a big concern.
 
Your general is factually correct . Indian deterrence capabilities are no match for French deterrence capabilities one to one . Your assets are more potent and in numbers , than usually credit is given for. If I had the French capabilities and the no of assets ( not the ones in public domain ) I will certainly agree with your general.

I am sure more or less he would would have a similar opinion like mine had he been a general of India and factored in the wide disparity in capability between India and china and even more if he factored in the nut job country to the east into the mix.
You're right. I just wanted to explain that the numbers of the nuc warheads is one thing, the ability to put them in the ennemy territory another.

Better have less warheads but carried by stealthy SSBN, nice missiles with fine accuracy, potent decoys to help to penetrate ABM shield... than numerous warheads on old vectors.
 
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So about 150 nukes in total by the time all the SSBNs are operational. 8 nukes on each city will more or less destroy at least 15 of their main cities while consuming 120 warheads. The remaining 30 dropped on military targets, bases, C&C nodes etc. That's enough of a threat to ensure deterrence.
No one will never use 8 nukes on the same target, even if it is a large city. Two is enough (1 + 1 in cas of failure on one).
The "purpose" is not to scratch the city totally, but to create so huge dammage that the city is condamned and paralised.
So with a 150 nuc pile stock, you can put China and Pak 2 or 3 centuries in the past. And they know it.