Scorpene is like LCA. We need Rafale-class. That's via an 8m beam. More fuel, more weapons, larger sensors etc.
Even during the previous decade Scorpenes were deemed insufficient even as they were coming in, even with AIP. So what's to say of the next decade. It's a class issue. Top officers rated the uprated Kilo class over the Scorpene. So I'd actually argue for stopgap secondhand Kilos that can be upgraded pretty quickly. The Russians offered 3 hulls for cheap, can last 10 years. I won't be surprised if it's taken up at this point.
If we want a hi-lo mix of subsurface combatants, the best way is Scorpene (with DRDO AIP) on low end & SSNs on high end.
The plan for 12 conventional foreign-design SSKs (6+6) was formulated way back in the 90s. P75I and its iterations have been around since at least 2008 in RFI form. Back then we had very little confidence in our nuclear submarine-building capacity as everything was unproven & nascent. We could not risk putting eggs in that basket for attack sub needs.
16 years later, everything is changed. Not only can we now build N-subs, we have absorbed the ability to redesign & certify modifications to hulls to suit our needs (e.g. stretched S4).
We can now realistically pursue a domestic SSN program and that's what we're doing.
As per current timeline it will be 2030 before first steel for P75I is cut, and closer to 2035 for first commissioning. But looks like we'll be waiting longer to even select a vendor so it'll realistically be late 2030s. We'll be either already inducting indigenous SSNs or close to inducting them by that point.
No matter how much more advanced a notional P75I can be compared to Scorpene, the indigenous SSN would still blow it out of the water. So P75I is useless as the 'Hi' part of hi-lo mix in the revised timeline, as such it's a waste of money to bring in a new platform...it's just that IN is yet to conduct a reassessment of the submarine plan at a high level like what was done in 90s.
The current P75I jhumla is just time-pass till they get around to doing that. But when they do, we're going to do to 75I exactly what the Aussies did to Attack-class program.
We don't necessarily have the same requirements.
I don't think we should go beyond what the IN has put forth with respect to AIP. So no AIP, no soup, no matter how much our insignificant opinions go against that.
All of our diesel subs (not counting the oldies) going forward will either come with FC AIP out of the box or be retrofitted with one, there's no question about that. Question is, which AIP it will be.
What are the odds the DRDO AIP will go to sea before the Spanish can get theirs 'ready'. And if we're ready to wait, why not wait for the indigenous solution instead - and evaluate P75I based on vendor's willingness to integrate it instead.
