There are reports even from the US where they present alarmist predictions about Chinese military tech, but of course some dismiss it as a means by the military to get more funds. Overall the world has woken up to the fact that sooner rather than later Chinese tech will be damn good in most areas.
Good points . I shall strive to present my view & be as brief as I can without sacrificing clarity & the sweep of subjects that you've covered at the altar of brevity .
The Chinese are getting better & will continue to do so in the future . I don't think anybody's disputing that. Let me ask you something - why do the Chinese produce everything in bulk like these J-20's . Stealth aircraft aren't economic to either manufacture or maintain . What does that tell you ? Hint - Quantity is a Quality of it's own . What the intrinsic quality of that particular platform is a thought I'd leave to your better judgement .
If PAF gets the J-10C with WS-10 series engines then we'll know that in fighter jet engine technology the Chinese have arrived. Even otherwise i think that it's just a matter of time before PAF gets the J-10 series, else they don't have any answer to counter the Rafale.
They well may get it & that's something our security managers would have factored in much before a formal announcement towards it's acquisition would be made .
Our calculations for the recent past has been if we acquire some sort of deterrence against China that'd come in handy to us in prevailing over Pakistan.
This doctrine was being executed by us in the form of procurements of late . What last summer's incidents across the LAC did was hit home the import & urgency of such procurements .
@Falcon in his Twitter account posted that IA needs the Arjun MK1A to counter the VT4 that PA is getting. So this means that Chinese export grade tanks are pretty good now, at least for India.
2 different aspects to be considered here - One of which is quality of Pakistan's procurements & by extension the quality of Chinese products , the other being our response which in the very least should not only appear to commensurate to the threat perception but also be so in reality. While Pakistan has to only cater to us we've to cater to both China & Pakistan .
If
@Falcon has specifically mentioned the Arjun & not the T series of tanks or the ones on the drawing board like FRCV , it's more likely he's looking to promote additional procurements of various iterations of the Arjuns which as of has seen limited inductions given the terrain limitations of operations of that tank . I would go so far as to say he's attempting to kill 2 birds with 1 Stone with his suggestions .
I think that one of the reasons that the US was in a hurry to get out of Afganistan is that they need to counter the soon-to-come Chinese agression against Taiwan. Can we even fathom the geopolitical repercussions of a Chinese subjugation of Taiwan without much US/NATO opposition just like the Russian annexation of Crimea?
The US has a habit of exiting wars it cannot win . They entered into Afghanistan for the same reasons they went to Iraq. To overthrow a regime & usher in democracy. Except in case the of the latter they used expediency as an excuse to implement an insidious agenda , got bogged down & retreated at the first opportunity .
In Afghanistan once they got Bin Laden & with the Iraq experience they didn't know what to do . Confronting Pakistan by enlarging the scope of operations would have ended up exacting much more from the US in terms of resources - men material & money than they were willing to commit .
They chose the least risky operation. Consolidate their hold on Afghanistan , keep Pakistan under pressure & stabilize the situation as far as possible in Afghanistan. Over a period of time it became clear that there were severe limitations to their strategy & with the passage of time their commitment & interest levels flagged. The results are before you . Afghanistan is exactly where it was when the Soviets left .
Regarding Taiwan, I personally don't think the US is going to confront China militarily if China decides to invade Taiwan. But we also know China won't attempt something like that without being absolutely sure it can execute such a strategy with the least risk .
It's difficult to comment on how the situation would unfold but I've a gut feeling that whatever is to be done about Taiwan by China will be done before this decade is out . Xi wants to leave a legacy & he's a man in a hurry . That could well be his & thru him - China's fatal blunder , if he's not already made it .
The analogy to Russian occupation of Ukraine doesn't hold as that region was always a Russian possesion which in turn is reflected by the demographics there . It was administered by Ukraine only during the USSR era when it was made a part of Ukraine - an arrangement which continued since the dissolution of the USSR .
We had a brief window when the US wasn't giving a lot to Pak militarily and the Chinese had nothing worthy to offer to Pak. That window is rapidly closing and we are trying to get our MIL in shape in bits and pieces at best. If our economy continues to falter for the next 5 years then the 36 Rafale won't be enough for us to keep a robust two-front posture.
We will continue to implement our modernization & enhancement of our war fighting machine in bits & pieces irrespective of the shape our economy is in .
Even if we , for the sake of argument , continue recording 10-12% growth annually for say 5 yrs from 2024-29 you're not going to see a corresponding rise in our defence expenditure as befits a nation of our size confronting 2 N powers from which it faces an existential threat .
Why ? Hint : that's where our N deterrence comes into play especially when facing a 2 front war . While Pakistan keeps yakking about nuking India at every opportunity ( a practice if you notice they've given up ever since Balakote ) , India will effect a change in it's NW - NFU policy only when it sees the threat over the horizon & not before.
If you notice our seniormost serving & retired bureaucrats & ministers make such ambiguous pronouncements from time to time . The parties at whom it's directed get the message .
Is Pakistan & China aware of this ? Yes , they are . What they've been probing since the past 2 decades ( much beyond that in case of Pakistan ) is the will . Beginning 2014 they've had their doubts which since Balakote & last summer has been confirmed . Prior to that , for reasons I don't want to get into , they could take their liberties with India. That margin ( of taking liberties ) has since shrunk considerably.
