I think it will be soon. According to China’s experience in changing to the J16, one brigade in each theater will be replaced first. This year we can see the J20 deployed in the western theater.36 is enough, the PLAAF will have 48 opposite us. More like they will take another year or two to match what we've got. They have other places to worry about first. The J-20C could take as much as 2027 or 2028 for them to have another 48 across our border.
And I think you overestimate the Rafale fighter. For example, the Rafale can supersonic cruise. First of all, all supersonic cruises cannot be equipped with external missiles and pods, because this will form a huge shock wave resistance. Secondly, the gust uses a Pitot tube inlet. The air intake efficiency will drop significantly at Mach 1.4, and the performance of F16 with Pitot tube inlet will drop significantly above Mach 1.4, so I don’t think the gust can cruise at supersonic speed. Here, the gust is essentially a fourth Generation fighter, although its design has a lot of brilliance,
In the face of J20 and SU57, the fifth-generation fighter aircraft that uses multi-vortex coupling technology, the gust is destined to have no chance.