Syrian Civil War - News & Discussions

[Volcano]

Military analysts will watch these engagements closely. Who needs dedicated CAS anymore when cheap, reliable drones can inflict major casualties on even somewhat organized armies? It's not a big deal if the drones get shot down, Turkey can just produce more. All it takes is a one good hit to get a major return on investment.

Would love to see how Turkey fairs with this strategy in Libya if they do confront Haftar (although, I'm not sure if they can project air power the same way in Libya because of greater distance)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1233854187928276993

They are also extremely cheep to operate and have more than 24 hours endurance. They can stay over the battle field 24/7,the cost effectiveness of flying a Bayraktar TB2 instead of f16 for 24 hours is enormous. Turkey has a fleet of around 100 Bayraktar TB2 and still increasing. You can also use drones to lure in enemy aircraft to ambushes during a war time. Forces will have to make a decision on whether to sent interceptors to shoot down drones or fire costly Surface to air missiles to shoot down drone. Modern armies will have to build cheep weapons that can shoot down drones, or it will disrupt the entire battlefield.


During India pak tensions last year, first Pakistani drone was shot down with spider and rest 3-4 were shot down by Sukhois with air to air missiles. Sending sukhois to shoot down a drone which is flying close to Pakistan border is dangerous and if you fire spider, enemy will know the location of your air defense systems. Its a really tricky situation. Looks like Indian military decided against using ground based air defense systems to engage drones and are dispatching fighters to shoot them down.

 

[BMD]

Turkish forces strike military airport in southern Aleppo

https://twitter.com/x/status/1234146741936627714

 

[Volcano]

Syrian Army, supported by Hizbullah recaptured Saraqib and neighboring towns.

SAA shot down few Turkish armed drones over Idlib

 

[randomradio]

I see the Russians and Chinese begin to arm Iran from 2021 onwards, with Qatar bankrolling quite a bit of it.

 

[BMD]

Third plane shot down by Turkish aviation over Syria:

Turkish defence ministry confirmed the news, saying "an L-39 plane belonging to the [Syrian] regime has been downed".​

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/turkey-shoots-plane-syrian-force…



See also

https://www.defenseworld.net/news/26450/Turkish_F_16_Shoots_Down_Syria_…

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

I see the Russians and Chinese begin to arm Iran from 2021 onwards, with Qatar bankrolling quite a bit of it.

Why arm Iran , they can directly help Assad

Helping Iran makes Trump Angry

 

[Volcano]

Third plane shot down by Turkish aviation over Syria:

Turkish defence ministry confirmed the news, saying "an L-39 plane belonging to the [Syrian] regime has been downed".​

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/turkey-shoots-plane-syrian-force…



See also

https://www.defenseworld.net/news/26450/Turkish_F_16_Shoots_Down_Syria_…

Turkish f-16 is firing missiles way out from Turkish airspace to SAA fighter jets, most of them not configured for any air to air battles.


Turkish drones are now getting shot down a lot. Despite these strikes, SAA once again went on offensive recapturing Saraqeb & clearing M5 highway. Few Turkish outposts also got surrounded.


Today is going to be filled with action, Erdogan is going to Moscow tomorrow bro meet with Putin and according to sources, there will be cease fire. So both side will try to take over as much land as possible today.As of now, SAA is in a good ground position

Saraqeb is the ultimate price on southern Idlib,which is the intersection of M4 and M5 highways. Whoever have Saraqeb will have an advantage.

Last patch of highway under militant control is a patch of M4 highway, connecting Latakia with Aleppo. Russia will definitely push for it in the future since Latakia is an important Russian military base.

 

[Volcano]

Russian military police also deployed to Saraqeb city and started its patrols.

 

[randomradio]

Why arm Iran , they can directly help Assad

Helping Iran makes Trump Angry

The Russians and Chinese don't care about that.

The Russians need to arm Iran in order to put pressure on the US, GCC, Turkey and Israel. They are already under CAATSA anyway. Iran is also a big defence market and also one of the few that don't care about CAATSA. Also, Russian weapons are extremely cheap. An upgraded Su-30SM1 is $25M flyaway.

As for China, Iran is extremely important for their BRI initiative. China is also under CAATSA sanctions, and they don't care. China's weapons are good for Iran since Iran can pay using oil and gas.

Obviously they are already helping Assad, but Assad cannot consume high end weapons like Iran can, particularly an air force with Su-30SM1, J-10C and later Su-57, and all sorts of force multipliers and support units. It's the air force that will put pressure on all the countries I mentioned above.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

The Russians and Chinese don't care about that.

The Russians need to arm Iran in order to put pressure on the US, GCC, Turkey and Israel. They are already under CAATSA anyway. Iran is also a big defence market and also one of the few that don't care about CAATSA. Also, Russian weapons are extremely cheap. An upgraded Su-30SM1 is $25M flyaway.

As for China, Iran is extremely important for their BRI initiative. China is also under CAATSA sanctions, and they don't care. China's weapons are good for Iran since Iran can pay using oil and gas.

Obviously they are already helping Assad, but Assad cannot consume high end weapons like Iran can, particularly an air force with Su-30SM1, J-10C and later Su-57, and all sorts of force multipliers and support units. It's the air force that will put pressure on all the countries I mentioned above.

US has already hurt China a great deal
In their trade war

Chinese economy has already suffered
Due to Trade war and Corona

They dont want any more.trouble

Russia is only getting into a Calibrated Conflict with US and NATO

Helping Syria is one thing and Helping Iran
Is quiet another

US and NATO will not sit quietly if Russia
Starts Arms sale to Iran

Just a few weeks ago there were missile
Attacks on US bases in Iraq

Iran wants to.drive out US from Iraq

Helping Iran makes it stronger in its fight
Against US

Even Saudi and its Arab allies want a weak
Iran

Some years ago Russia stopped S 300 sale to Iran

Russia.and.US are always needling each other BUT not to the point that it starts a.WW.3

 

[Ginvincible]

I see the Russians and Chinese begin to arm Iran from 2021 onwards, with Qatar bankrolling quite a bit of it.

will Qatar bankroll an Iranian modernization if it goes against Turkey's interest? I know both Iran and Turkey and Qatar's allies, so backing one side too much when they are quarreling in Syria doesn't seem keen.

On a side note, Qatar's geopolitics is fascinating. Especially since the GCC split, Qatar's diplomacy has been amazing to watch progress.

 

[Volcano]

will Qatar bankroll an Iranian modernization if it goes against Turkey's interest? I know both Iran and Turkey and Qatar's allies, so backing one side too much when they are quarreling in Syria doesn't seem keen.

On a side note, Qatar's geopolitics is fascinating. Especially since the GCC split, Qatar's diplomacy has been amazing to watch progress.

Any day, Qatar will choose Turkey over Iran.Qatar now even have a Turkish military base if i am not wrong. We may however see GCC supporting Assad against Turks in the future. After years of "Assad must go" slogans, Saudi reopened its embassy in Damascus and probably other GCC nations will follow. Saudi is not going to tolerate Erdogan's attempt to position himself as the leader of Islamic world and it considers Turkish military involvement in Arab land (Syria ,Iraq, Libya) as a threat.

 

[randomradio]

will Qatar bankroll an Iranian modernization if it goes against Turkey's interest? I know both Iran and Turkey and Qatar's allies, so backing one side too much when they are quarreling in Syria doesn't seem keen.

On a side note, Qatar's geopolitics is fascinating. Especially since the GCC split, Qatar's diplomacy has been amazing to watch progress.

Qatar is interested in maintaining good relations with all the major powers around them. So any Qatari help in modernising Iran's military can be pointed towards the US, Saudi Arabia/UAE and Israel, and not Turkey. Although countering the US would automatically mean even Turkey is countered in the process.

It is in Qatar's interests that Iran is as strong as possible in order to prevent war in the Middle East. It's primarily to dissuade the US from invading Iran than anything else. Other than that, all three countries look at Saudi Arabia as an enemy, which is why they see eye to eye on certain things.

In the long term, Qatar's interests are more in line with the GCC and Iran than with Turkey. For example, Turkey cannot really come to the military assistance of Qatar during a crisis due to the geography. So the have to find balance between Saudi/UAE and Iran some way or the other in the long term and Turkey will not be able to play a part here. Any attempt to modernise Iran's air force will be a long term project.

 

[Volcano]

 

[Ginvincible]

Any day, Qatar will choose Turkey over Iran.Qatar now even have a Turkish military base if i am not wrong. We may however see GCC supporting Assad against Turks in the future. After years of "Assad must go" slogans, Saudi reopened its embassy in Damascus and probably other GCC nations will follow. Saudi is not going to tolerate Erdogan's attempt to position himself as the leader of Islamic world and it considers Turkish military involvement in Arab land (Syria ,Iraq, Libya) as a threat.

The politics in the region are a bit zany right now, which I think has a lot to do with a non-committal US. I always assumed Turkey and Iran would coalesce into a faction against the GCC/Sunni Arab faction once the US leaves the region. Edrogan is proving me wrong.

It is in Qatar's interests that Iran is as strong as possible in order to prevent war in the Middle East. It's primarily to dissuade the US from invading Iran than anything else.

I know that they are trying to stay on everyone's good side as much as possible to defend their own sovereignty from their larger neighbors. I also know there is a huge US airbase in Qatar, the Al Udeid Air Base, which is what I thought was their hedge against their any expansion against them.

I never really considered that they would try to balance the scales against the US in the region to prevent a war (that although may not directly involve them, can drastically strain them via refugee crisis, trade disruption, etc).

So to balance the scales and prevent a war in the region they fund Iran just enough to deter a serious engagement from the US, but not enough to overwhelm the Arab powers. I think it is a risky gambit.

 

[randomradio]

I know that they are trying to stay on everyone's good side as much as possible to defend their own sovereignty from their larger neighbors. I also know there is a huge US airbase in Qatar, the Al Udeid Air Base, which is what I thought was their hedge against their any expansion against them.

I never really considered that they would try to balance the scales against the US in the region to prevent a war (that although may not directly involve them, can drastically strain them via refugee crisis, trade disruption, etc).

So to balance the scales and prevent a war in the region they fund Iran just enough to deter a serious engagement from the US, but not enough to overwhelm the Arab powers. I think it is a risky gambit.

No one is ever going to invade Qatar, so there's no fear of that for them. But a war in the Middle East can shut down the Persian Gulf, and they will become isolated instead. So no trade, means no food, no medicine, no financial transactions etc. They will have to live like refugees in their own country. The Iran-Iraq War went on for 8 whole years, and they understand that any such war today would be much more catastrophic in comparison, especially now that Israel has nukes.

 

[Volcano]

Cease fire is announced in Idlib province after a 6 hour long meeting between Erdogan and Putin in Moscow


It looks like Putin held his position and extracted a really favourable deal for the Syrian government.

SAA will keep all the territory it captured in the offensive including Saraqeb & M5 highway, along with that, M4 highway will be opened with a 12 KM buffer zone, with Russia controlling 6Km south of M4 and Turkey 6 Km north of M4 highway.

Buffer zone in Blue colour.

For comparison, another Map from yesterday

M4 is the Latakia-Saraqib highway,
M5 is the Homs-HAMA-SARAQIB-ALEPPO highway in this map.


With this agreement, militants will have no control over any highways in Syria and will be left with a small patch of land.

Russia succeed in one of its main objective of having control over territories south of M4 Highway, which was used my the militants to fire rockets and armed drones against Russian Khmeymim airbase in Latakia.


I was not expecting such a favourable terms for SAA & Russia

@Ginvincible @randomradio @BMD

 

[randomradio]

Cease fire is announced in Idlib province after a 6 hour long meeting between Erdogan and Putin in Moscow


It looks like Putin held his position and extracted a really favourable deal for the Syrian government.

SAA will keep all the territory it captured in the offensive including Saraqeb & M5 highway, along with that, M4 highway will be opened with a 12 KM buffer zone, with Russia controlling 6Km south of M4 and Turkey 6 Km north of M4 highway.

Buffer zone in Blue colour.

View attachment 14524


For comparison, another Map from yesterday
View attachment 14525


M4 is the Latakia-Saraqib highway,
M5 is the Homs-HAMA-SARAQIB-ALEPPO highway in this map.


With this agreement, militants will have no control over any highways in Syria and will be left with a small patch of land.

Russia succeed in one of its main objective of having control over territories south of M4 Highway, which was used my the militants to fire rockets and armed drones against Russian Khmeymim airbase in Latakia.


I was not expecting such a favourable terms for SAA & Russia

@Ginvincible @randomradio @BMD

This is a very fragile peace. After a certain time, the Syrians can be expected to make another push. Idlib is their sovereign territory after all.

 

[Ginvincible]

Cease fire is announced in Idlib province after a 6 hour long meeting between Erdogan and Putin in Moscow


It looks like Putin held his position and extracted a really favourable deal for the Syrian government.

SAA will keep all the territory it captured in the offensive including Saraqeb & M5 highway, along with that, M4 highway will be opened with a 12 KM buffer zone, with Russia controlling 6Km south of M4 and Turkey 6 Km north of M4 highway.

Buffer zone in Blue colour.

View attachment 14524


For comparison, another Map from yesterday
View attachment 14525


M4 is the Latakia-Saraqib highway,
M5 is the Homs-HAMA-SARAQIB-ALEPPO highway in this map.


With this agreement, militants will have no control over any highways in Syria and will be left with a small patch of land.

Russia succeed in one of its main objective of having control over territories south of M4 Highway, which was used my the militants to fire rockets and armed drones against Russian Khmeymim airbase in Latakia.


I was not expecting such a favourable terms for SAA & Russia

@Ginvincible @randomradio @BMD

This seems like such a disaster for Turkey and the rebels.

This is like the previous peace agreement they made based on the M5 highway, and now they are basing it on the M4 highway. This is just time for Assad and Russia to organize and stabilize the territory they took. What is stopping them from just restarting the offensive against Idilib once they are prepared again? If this deal stands, the rebels will be totally annihilated by the end of the year.

 

[Volcano]

This is a very fragile peace. After a certain time, the Syrians can be expected to make another push. Idlib is their sovereign territory after all.

This seems like such a disaster for Turkey and the rebels.

This is like the previous peace agreement they made based on the M5 highway, and now they are basing it on the M4 highway. This is just time for Assad and Russia to organize and stabilize the territory they took. What is stopping them from just restarting the offensive against Idilib once they are prepared again? If this deal stands, the rebels will be totally annihilated by the end of the year.

That's always been the Syrian Army (Or Russian) plan. They used Astana agreement to wipe out all other militant strongholds and in almost all cases, allowed hardliners to migrate to Idlib as part of surrender terms. This way, moderate militants gave up weapons and joined Army and hardliners from across the country concentrated in Idlib. Then they threw Astana agreement in dust bin and captured most of Idlib province going for the final kill. We can expect hostilities to start again in few weeks or months. There are airstrikes going on inside Idlib even now. Al-nusra is not part of any deal, so SAA & Russia will continue strikes in Idlib.

Militancy is only effective as long as it is spread over a large area and thereby thinning out the state forces. Now, entire Syrian army is in Idlib front, they don't have any other fronts!!!Compared to two years before, there were more than 20 fronts, each needed tens of thousands of troops just to defend. Turkey threw everything at Syria in the last 7 days and they still couldn't take back anything. After a temporary setback, SAA counter attacked and once again captured all lost positions withing 24-36 hours


Turkey surprised SAA with the effectiveness of its drones first, but they adapted very fast. They shot down around 13 armed drones. Now with more air defence in Idlib, things once again turned in SAA favour.

But we may see more Israeli strikes in Syrian Israeli border,now that Syrian air defence is no longer as focused as it was in that region due to re-deployments


Many also believe that one of the main reason why SAA went this hard on Turks in Idlib is also to demonstrate Kurds that Syrian government have the will to fight Turkey and can protect them during an eventual Kurdish-Turkish fight. Kurds are definitely impressed with SAA now, especially considering how Kurdish forces melted in front of Turkish supported militant offensive.