Ah ! Assad's been deposed eh ? That's pretty quick by ME standards too. One week & poof , he's gone. Wonder what's in store for the region & its players ?
Let's crystal gaze & (ATTEMPT to) make some predictions (R̶S̶T̶ s̶t̶y̶l̶e̶) , shall we :-
For starters the Syria in the form we knew it is history. It's going to be a fractured & severely contested land from here on. But that's a no brainer. I'd try to see what does Syria rather its constituents hold for both the short & long term .
In the short term Assad's tribe the Alawites have had it . They're going to be the most persecuted sect in Syria & the ME with no fall back options too. Their only protector in the immediate region the Hezbollah is down though not out. I'd expect them or what remains of them to seek shelter in Lebanon mostly , some enclaves in Syria in their strong hold & the rest will try for Turkey.
Ditto for the rest of the minorities there except ones who border countries like Lebanon or Israel with decent populations of their own there like the Druze. They will carve out their own enclaves with their safety guaranteed by Israel & the west i.e the US.
The Sunni areas will by the looks of it be dominated by the ISIS / AQ type militias which means it keeps simmering like a cauldron. That means it continues to be a threat to all its neighbours especially the Shi'as & the Kurds. This also means that the whole region would keep relying on outside powers to stabilize the situation there. Long term - too much of enforced religion & its practises sickens its believers & turns them away from it like we're seeing in Iran & will see in AfPak.
The biggest losers right now are Assad his tribe , loyalists & his backers - Iran which most likely precipitated / helped precipitate the events of 10/7 is down though not out with their neo Sassanid Empire masquerading as a Shi'a enterprise in total shambles. Their proxies be it the Hamas or Hezbollah are severely debilitated with the regime in Syria having collapsed.
I suspect all those groups opposed to the mullahs in Iran will start baring their fangs be it in Iran or outside most notably in Iraq & Lebanon where forces inimical to Iran & its proxies will raise their heads .
Russia is now officially a power in decline. It's just about managing to keep itself afloat what with the war in Ukraine & unable to secure its own interests outside where all regimes associated with it are gradually collapsing or shifting allegiance in order to survive.
Turkey in the short run may appear to be the winner but in the long run will be the biggest loser. The collapse of a country like Syria apart from Iraq previously ( whatever territorial integrity one's seeing today is a a sham in Iraq ) unleashes the Kurds who after enjoying 3 plus decades of quasi freedom in Iraq & now in Syria will be hard to contain as & when these forces start raising the banner of revolt in Turkey.
The regime in Iran is on borrowed time. If there were strong speculations on this before it's official now. When & how it collapses is a matter of debate but collapse it will , not without a - hum toh doobe sanam , saath tumhe bhi le doobenge attitude . A collapse here also encourages the Kurds to strive for freedom in the West /NW / SW of Iran.
Israel is the biggest beneficiary of this entire churn in the region. But they'd not know peace & what's more they know it besides being used to it . Wish our people who take our freedoms & privileges for granted learn something from the Jews in Israel (for in the coming decades especially from mid century onwards we'd be severely tested what with the events in Bangladesh serving as a wake up call eventually spilling over to the NE & the rest of India apart from Paxtan which is on the brink of an implosion ). The latter are prepared to defend it with their very lives.
As usual the US can get away like it always has ( 9/11 was & will be an aberration ) playing God across the world. Timely lesson for everyone who takes the US & its capabilities lightly. Nicely played this one with Israel ( getting it into a CF with Hezbollah ) & Turkey ( long term sucker & loser thanks to Sultan Turdogan's extremely short sighted policies laying the seeds of Turkey's own possible disintegration down the years & if not that the power of leverage with outside powers notably the US ).
I count this one as another feather in the cap of Irish Joe & a parting shot much like his pardon of his son to the establishment in the US for treating him shabbily. They'd appreciate him better once he's gone. Ditto for the Paddy's . They'd know the true worth of Irish Joe decades if not centuries after he's kicked the bucket in true Paddy style.
As far as the GCC , Egypt & Jordan go they were casual by standers right from the beginning with not much at stake here for they didn't stake anything , learning from the past one assumes that all that glitters isn't gold especially in the ME resisting all temptations , though a more mundane explanation could also detail the reasons they weren't too involved nor wanted to be so for they had too much of their own internal problems on the plate , that needed handling.
Trust I've covered all the quarters here.
