Syrian Civil War - News & Discussions
- Thread starter Atalay
- Start date
Ah, yes. Let's remove Al Qaeda and ISIS from the UN terror list.
They should apply for NATO membership.
While Russia under a Trump presidency might be able to rearm somewhat, I think Iran is in for a world of hurt. Trump went out of his way to make life difficult for Iran in his first term and back then the Iranians were more open to reconciliation. The Iranians recently plotted to assassinate Trump and undermine his campaign... and if we know nothing else about Trump it's that he is vengeful and capricious. Iran will be on the back foot for the next 4 years. Israel will be given a blank check to do whatever and Trump's State dept will put pressure towards balkanizing Iran. The Turks will also smell the blood in the water and expand their influence wherever they can.
I personally don't think either Europe or America really care if Erdogan's neo-Ottomanism or Netanyahu's greater-Israel or whatever else triumphs as long as the regional hegemon doesn't interfere with Western trade interests. If anything the West will give Erdogan more leeway to expand in the Levant in exchange for stemming refugee streams.
At the end of the day, I wouldn't be surprised if the West just continues to arm both emerging sides, and let them wear each other out. A new middle-eastern cold war. As for the Sunni fanatics, they'll have enough to chew on by decimating the Kurds, Shiites, Alawaites, etc in the region for another 10-15 years before they start to spill out.
We'll have to wait and see. I am not optimistic about the future of the Armenian state in the near-mid term. Even if they have begun to rearm, they cannot resist an Azerbaijan supported by both Turkey and Israel. Especially after they turned their backs on Russia and Iran is being crippled. The Azeris may not move into Iran proper but they will absolutely move to make their corridor a reality and spread more influence into bordering Iranian regions.
All of this will be while Iran will have to endure assassinations against their generals and scientists as well as numerous air strikes against their weapons depots, nuclear facilities and whatever IRGC installations remain throughout the region. The Turks, Israelis, and Americans will erode them over time.
I believe the Iranians will run towards nuclear breakout over the next few years. I am doubtful this will be enough to reverse the strategic losses though. They will have to minituraize the warheads and create enough warheads to present a credible deterrance. Again, while suffering countless airstrikes. I do think that the Iranians will be able to presevere themselves in the way North Korea has. But that will be the extent of it. They will almost certainly lose their grip on outlaying provinces but their core will be protected.
Makes sense. I knew in the past they skirmished with Iran and vied for influence with Turkey. I was kind of under the impression that, nowadays, the Gulf States are just trying to stay neutral and focus on their future economic development. They will play nice with everybody and try to stay under the radar.
I think they realize that without hard power they are just ripe for the taking. I wouldn't be surprised to see some hardliner Islamist movements try to topple these monarchies for becoming too liberal.
Well the Gulf state are blessed to be under protectorate of USA, also they deal with other player's who can help them out if any Islamist moments starts, Syrian civil war won't have reached at these level if the CIA didn't had poured money initially, as per my view gulf state can't project power in the middle East, as they lack the military might & military brains, that's why Iranians & Turkish have so much of influence in the Arab States conflicts, Saudis, UAE, Qatar do have the money but they don't have influence,
Iran is on back foot, loosing the ground in Syria, hezabolah being half dead, IRGC pulled back to Iran, they suffering losses losing thier generals, and Russians leaving the middle East, they are now at the weakest stage of the last two decade,
This analysis of events in post-Assad Syria is full of conjecture and is based on a number of historical and geopolitical dynamics. Here are a few salient and critical points to raise:
A fractured Syria: The idea of a Syria divided into ethnic and sectarian enclaves (Alawites, Druze, Sunnis, Kurds) is credible. The fall of Assad would probably lead to a political vacuum in which non-state actors such as jihadist militias (e.g. ISIS, AQ) could gain a foothold in Sunni areas, while minorities seek safe havens.
The fate of the Alawites: Their likely persecution is logical, as they have been associated with the Assad regime. Their withdrawal to Lebanon or to their Syrian coastal strongholds (Latakia, Tartous) is plausible. Hezbollah, although weakened, would remain a potential protector because of its sectarian and strategic links.
The Kurds and Turkey: This prediction of a Turkey that wins in the short term but loses in the long term is interesting. The emergence of autonomous Kurdish areas in Syria (as in Rojava) could galvanise Kurdish movements in Turkey, complicating internal stability for Ankara. Turkey sees this as an existential threat.
Iran and its proxies: The analysis describes a significant weakening of Iran, whose strategy of regional influence (via Hezbollah, Iraqi Shiite militias and support for Assad) would be undermined. However, Iran has shown remarkable resilience despite international pressure. A collapse of the Iranian regime remains speculative, even if economic and political attrition is a real factor.
Russia: The comment about Russia as a declining power is a valid one, especially in a context where it is struggling to support several fronts (Ukraine, Syria). However, Russia would not easily give up its strategic access to the Mediterranean (Tartous naval base).
Israel: The analysis describes Israel as the beneficiary of this instability, which is debatable. Admittedly, the collapse of hostile regimes weakens adversaries such as Iran and Hezbollah, but a chaotic Syria could also strengthen Sunni terrorist groups. Israel's northern border would become even more volatile.
United States: The idea that the United States could take advantage of the situation thanks to its capacity for global influence is a classic one. Its limited intervention in Syria (compared with Iraq) has enabled it to minimise losses while playing a key role in the fight against ISIS.
Arab neighbours (Egypt, Jordan, GCC): Their active non-involvement in the Syrian crisis is well noted. These states preferred to avoid costly adventures, focusing their efforts on their own internal challenges (economy, social stability).
The evacuation of Russian forces from Tartous and Latakia is a major development in the Syrian theatre:
1. The loss of Tartous and Latakia: a strategic blow for Russia
Tartous is Russia's only naval base in the Mediterranean. It serves as an essential logistical support point for Russian naval operations in this strategic area.
Latakia is a vital military hub where Russia has deployed troops and systems such as the S-400 to protect the Assad regime and consolidate its influence in Syria.
The loss or evacuation of these positions would mean a major setback for Russia in the Middle East, reducing its ability to :
Project its naval power into the eastern Mediterranean.
Maintain a dominant role in Syria, where it had established itself as the guarantor of the Assad regime since 2015.
2. Possible causes of the evacuation
Collapse of the Assad regime: If the fall of Damascus is confirmed, Russia may find its positions untenable without solid logistical and political support on the ground.
Increased security threats: The rapid deterioration of the situation in Syria and the emergence of hostile armed groups, particularly in Sunni regions, could pose a direct threat to Russian installations.
Limited capabilities: Russia is already under extreme pressure on its military and logistical resources as a result of the war in Ukraine. It may have decided to prioritise Ukraine rather than getting bogged down in a Syrian theatre that has become too costly.
3. Geopolitical consequences
a) For Russia :
A strategic humiliation, reducing its credibility as a global power capable of protecting its allies.
The end of a Russian military presence in the eastern Mediterranean would diminish its influence with regional players, notably Iran and Turkey.
A signal that Russia can no longer sustain its external commitments in the face of pressure in Ukraine.
b) For the United States and NATO:
The evacuation of the Russians opens up a strategic vacuum that the United States could exploit to strengthen its position in the Mediterranean. This is in line with recent US strikes against ISIS.
It simplifies allied operations in the region by eliminating a potential disruptive actor.
c) For Iran and its allies:
Iran, Assad's main partner along with Russia, risks being isolated in Syria. Pro-Iranian Shiite militias, such as Hezbollah, will have to manage local pressure on their own without Russian logistical support.
A weakening of the Moscow-Tehran-Damascus axis would benefit their regional adversaries (Israel, Turkey and the Gulf monarchies).
d) For Turkey:
Turkey could seek to exploit this vacuum to strengthen its positions in northern Syria and weaken the Kurds.
However, this could also exacerbate instability on its borders in the event of a total collapse of the Assad regime.
e) For Israel :
Israel would benefit directly from a weakening of the Shiite axis supported by Russia and Iran.
This would facilitate Israeli strikes against Iranian positions in Syria, without having to avoid Russian systems such as the S-300 and S-400.
4. The Russian fleet in the Mediterranean
The evacuation of the Russian fleet, in particular the frigate Admiral Grigorovich, shows that Moscow prefers to preserve its ships rather than expose them to a deterioration in the situation.
A possible ban on access to Tartous would prevent Russia from maintaining a continuous military presence in the Mediterranean, limiting its maritime ambitions in this key area.
5. Future scenarios
If the Russian evacuation continues, there are several possible scenarios:
The United States and its allies (NATO, Israel) occupy the strategic vacuum left by Moscow.
Iran tries to compensate for the Russian withdrawal by strengthening its own positions, but with limited means.
Turkey and Sunni Islamist groups could intensify their fight for control of the territories left vacant.
Prolonged chaos in Syria, with a possible resurgence of ISIS in uncontrolled areas.
Conclusion
If Russia does indeed evacuate its positions in Syria, it would mark a tectonic shift in the balance of power in the Middle East. Russia, pressed by the war in Ukraine, no longer seems in a position to play a stabilising or dominant role in the region. This offers a window of opportunity for regional powers and the United States, but also increases the risks of fragmentation and chaos in Syria.
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So now we are going to see ISIS 2.0 version. Looks like there is a sinister project to redraw the boundaries from egypt to himalayas.
allegations come from same bunch of ppl who said russia interfered to help trump to win the election.
thats a surprise , they havent yet blown the nuclear fuse yet, they can then join pakistan and indulge in nuclear suicide blackmail.
This collapse of Assad is a deal between Russia and USA. You will see that in next few days the Ukraine-Russia war will also end with large territorial gains for Russia.
I almost forgot THE most salient & critical point to consider from Europe's or specifically the EU's & by extension le Francais PoV .
In the recent past every time there's an upheaval in the near East or the Middle East or the Maghreb or the Sahel , it's the EU which bears the brunt of it in the form of illegal immigration. Why should it be different this time when it wasn't so earlier ?
I'm expecting further waves of illegal immigrants into EU especially Western Europe including France now that a fresh cycle of violence & retribution occurs greatly facilitated by Turdogan's Turkiye.
What that holds for the future of French society will manifest itself in another 2-3 generations which means 60-75 years likely earlier but early indications of which may well be seen now in the form of early elections ..
Michel Barnier: Macron to address nation after government collapse
The prime minister will stay on as caretaker while President Emmanuel Macron chooses a successor.
www.bbc.com
Gotta agree with Iran being in the doghouse now. But I think whether things work out for them or not depends on how Trump's negotiations go with Russia and China. In the meantime, the Iranians have to work on their own domestic industry anyway, not to mention aerospace deals take years to materialize.
Politically too, Russia and China will prioritize Iran, even if in secret. There are rumors about Iran shopping for aircraft in both countries.
The West is divided when it comes to Erdogan and Turkey. For example, Cyprus, Greece and France. Erdogan is working against Western interests in Libya as well.
Fighting the Kurds exposes the Sunnis to the US. We can't rule out terrorism in the West. Even one major attack could bring the West into Syria, and I won't be surprised if that's the plan. These guys are literally Al Qaeda, this time with their own country.
There are a few things to note. For now, the Kurds can now concentrate entirely on Turkey and its proxies, so Turkey's going to face new problems soon. It's possible that Russia and Iran will fund the Kurds in that project, not just the US.
Israel is yet to deal with Hezbollah. While they will like Iran to be distracted elsewhere, like your Azeri calculus, any new action on Lebanon will mean pissing off a lot of liberals in the West. So first they will have to find a way to destabilize Syria and push Turkey into some sort of conflict. Even Turkey is Israel's enemy after all, never mind Al Qaeda.
Iran is not crippled, at least when it comes to dealing with their immediate neighbors. I won't be surprised if Iran ends up intervening in Armenia. Pushing them out of Syria means they have both the financial muscle and manpower to do new things elsewhere. Worst case, Iran could end up acting against the Azeris first. They quite literally have nothing to do right now. Best case, they stay quiet in Lebanon and quietly foment trouble for the Turks.
Then there's Trump. I'm not sure how well he's gonna receive an Azeri invasion of Armenia for the Zanzegur Corridor. And I'm not sure if the Azeris will be interested in trying anything new against Armenia until he's gone. Trump has attacked the Democrats for their inaction against the Azeris and he has good relations with both countries.
The biggest wild card is Russia. People incorrectly believed they backed out of Syria on their own, instead we now know Assad's traitors decided to push them out. So even they are now being presented with new options. The Armenians have gained the opportunity for Russia to act more neutrally with them. If that fails, then that's going to be a problem. Worst case, Russia pressures the Azeris to go for the corridor, but that can happen only if Russia's relations with Trump goes bad. It's in Russia's interests to stay more focused on Ukraine/NATO as well.
So I believe that if the Armenians find more neutral ground with Russia and create good relations with Trump, they will have a pretty peaceful decade.
Iran will just threaten to go nuclear. Unless the Americans invade Iran, the Iranians have other options.
Threatening to make nukes is a lot more advantageous than actually having them at this point. They quite literally need to build an air force and BMD before they go nuclear, or it makes no difference; preferably Russian or Chinese. The Israelis held back the first time the Iranians attacked, and pursued limited engagement the second time, so I don't think they have the stomach to go full monty on Iran yet.
The West won this round, so the best course of action for Russia is to concentrate on Ukraine and for Iran to just stay quiet, both could continue fomenting trouble elsewhere; Africa, the Balkans and the ME.
What you said is the goal, but they still have to deal with all the main threats.
So yeah, the Sunni Islamists are slowly becoming the GCC's main threat. That and low birthrate.
It's quite ironic, but 50% of the people in Saudi/UAE and 70% in Iran no longer identify with Islam. It will be interesting to see what becomes of Iran after Khamenei dies, he's already 85. And Saudi is just one assassination away. We could see the rise of communism in the GCC and Iran over the next decade.
Middle East: Are people losing their religion? – DW – 02/04/2021
Recent surveys indicate strongly that across the Middle East and Iran, almost half the population is loosening their ties to Islam. Governments have reacted differently to calls for reforms of institutional religion.
www.dw.com
I guess one of the biggest reasons is literacy has helped them understand the Quran, so blind faith has given way to reason.
It's not possible for the Russians to keep the naval base. Any attempt to retain it would mean they have to support it from the Baltic, quite an implausible exercise . And they evacuated the S-400 from Latakia even before Hama was captured. It's a total loss for the Russians.
Most Iranians are withdrawing to Iraq and Lebanon. If the US creates their corridor, that will shut Iran out of Syria.
And it's unclear if the Alawites can hold the coast. There's no one to supply them unless NATO picks up the tab.
Right now, Al Qaeda is "allied" with Israel and the West. But once they cement themselves in Syria, they are likely to become a threat to both Israel and Europe in the long term, especially if the US continues supporting the Alawites and Kurds. HTS could push for the handover of Daraa to them. So there's plenty of potential for new friction points between HTS and the West.
If the Russians manage to hold Tartus, then it's possible. But if the Russians are forced to evacuate, then it's a meaningless deal for them.
And the Democrats want the war in Ukraine to continue. They are planning to pump more weapons and money in before handing over power to the Republicans. Given the situation, if there is any peace deal, it can only happen under Trump. Lavrov is openly complaining about Biden, so that shows there's no deal.