Not really, silent service had a defective torpedo well into 1943. "From December 1941 to November 1943 the Mark 14 and the destroyer-launched Mark 15 torpedo had numerous technical problems that took almost two years to fix."
Underrated in the general public obviously, bit overrated historically. Not to say submarines aren't of supreme importance, it's just the US was really hamstrung by torpedos and tactics.
First 6 months of the Pacific War was the hardest and won by 4 carriers. Only 1 submarine(crucial, but only because the route and Hornet was messed up) did anything at Midway. The next year after saw that carrier number whittled down to 1 carrier.
It's not like Japan had any way of protecting the convoys from airpower after being outnumbered 30 to 4 in carriers.
You can win logistically or through combat, or you could be like the US and do both. Would it have been harder without submarines yes, was it not even close if Japan had infinite shipping? yes. Even with unlimited resources the IC of Japan was too small compared to the USA. Only the USSR and USA mastered mass production techniques for war.
This is the main reason US beat Japan.
The answers lie in the specifics. While the American naval buildup was impressive, it still wasn't sufficient to invade Japan. Apparently the invasion of Taiwan alone would have eaten most of the fleet. Japan surrendered to America because they didn't want to fight and be conquered by the Soviet Union.
What's more interesting is, while Japan did not have the resources for such a buildup, America had already squeezed Japan's ability to procure resources pretty much the same way as what the West has done to Russia today, except they didn't have a China or India to bail them out. Until 1937, the US supplied Japan with oil, steel and other metals. The search for more resources compelled the Japanese to invade SE Asia and attack Pearl Harbor in order to cut off America from SE Asia's resources. Before 1931, the US and Japan were allies.
In any case, this was in the past. Today, China is able to repeat America's achievement. The combined Indian and US naval buildup must surpass China's in the long run, or we are definitely gonna be in trouble.