Ukraine - Russia Conflict


Kasparov, a former world chess champion and an outspoken Kremlin critic, lives in the United States.
Check mate, 4-D chess master loses.
 
Unique footage of a close flyby of a Russian Su-25SM3 attack aircraft next to a drone in Ukraine. Filming from a Russian drone, location unknown. Due to the close passage of the aircraft, the drone was thrown back by the aircraft's jet stream, from a height of 58 meters to 39 meters, the altitude sensor on the left.

 
Russia's oil and gas revenue is down. Non-oil and gas revenue is up, but that because Russia is paying those companies to produce weapons and they pay back some at the end. Also worrying, tons of missing data.


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More Ukrainians are dying in exchange.
If Ukrainian losses were heavier than Russian losses, Russia would be in Lviv right now.

Even when they had enough ammo, they were still losing ground, like in Bakhmut.
No, overall they were gaining ground.

You do realize they are building 3 submarines a year, right? And there are 3 new nuclear submarine classes in the pipeline. And at 100 jets a year, they are very likely to challenge the USAF in the numbers game too. And all this not considering tripling/quadrupling their army. They have barely even started.
How much slack capacity for production does Russia have, considering they are already suffering from a workforce shortage to the point of having to reinstate child labor? How are they gonna quadruple their army? With what people? Indians? They've already run out of Russian volunteers and have to keep increasing the promised pay.

As for three submarines per year... They're planning on one Lada and one Yasen per year, and one Borei every two years; that's fleet replacement rate, not fleet expansion rate. Also based on their track record, I strongly doubt they'll stay on schedule.

And it doesn't change their main problem. The Black Sea Fleet is stuck in the Black Sea and can't get out, Kaliningrad and St Petersbourg are likewise fully enclaved in Lake NATO, Murmansk is far too close to the Finnish border to be safe, and Petropavlosk is in Kamchatka. In other words, the Russian navy is basically useless in a war against Europe.
So Russia has no satellites, bombers and nuclear submarines?
Two options here:
  1. They don't use them.
  2. They lose them very fast.
 
In the autumn, Ukrainians were tired and exhausted; now they are often angry with the United States and Europeans. Anger at Washington, because for them the F-16s absolutely must be maintained in Ukraine and can no longer touch NATO territory. Bulgaria is not afraid to maintain the aircraft it has supplied at home.

The general staff is worried about the Russian offensive in the summer, and the huge quantities of men and equipment that have accumulated. Around 510,000 men, 3,400 battle tanks and more than 1,000 additional towed artillery pieces from depots.

He assumed that the new deliveries from the United States might just be enough to hold the front.

The SAMPT has one battery, the Iris-T three, and ammunition production is the bottleneck. The Patriot is the only solution.

The big problem is also short-range anti-aircraft defence, there's not much left. The Orlan can safely fly lower and lower to coordinate the Lancet. The Ukrainians want to develop drones against Orlan, because these also coordinate Shahid attacks on civilians in the former occupied territories.

Former ATACMS particularly valuable because of cluster munitions, as electronic warfare makes precise targeting (GPS) hard. The Europeans made a foolish mistake in giving up cluster munitions.

Ukraine will not be able to hold out if Germany does not put its position in the construction of land vehicles into the balance. The Ukrainians are hungry for Rheinmetall's Lynx, because armoured infantry fighting vehicles are the most important systems.

The highest casualty rates among units are among medics, who are hunted down by the Russians to undermine morale. Recovery of the wounded is impossible without an infantry fighting vehicle.

Battle tanks are again becoming more relevant to Ukrainian defence, as the Russians are making more use of electronic warfare with turtle tanks that render drones useless.

As there is no strategic planning or coordination in Europe for arms deliveries, Ukraine cannot develop a military strategy.
 
Two refineries and an airfield hit:





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Former ATACMS particularly valuable because of cluster munitions, as electronic warfare makes precise targeting (GPS) hard. The Europeans made a foolish mistake in giving up cluster munitions.
The whole idea of clumping all UXO together with AP mines was silly anyway. Most UXO exists because they're duds, they're a nuisance and all due care has to be taken when neutralising them, but they rarely kill anybody for the same reason they failed to explode in the first place. Remnant AP mines however are something completely different, they're fully functional live mines that remain unexploded purely because nobody has triggered them yet.
 
Russia's Kushchyovskaya Air Base Hit by Drones -- Ammunition Storage Destroyed!

 
GUR group of Ukraine "Gusy-9" together with 15th OBrAR "Black Forest" hit Russian 48Я6 K-1 radar. Damage was inflicted on the antenna-feeder installation and the diesel station that fed the complex.