Ukraine - Russia Conflict

No, it's just an excuse given by the Ukrainians for their lack of preparedness around Kharkiv. While they can't use some Western weapons in Russia, they still have many of their own that they could have used. At the very least, they should have built fortifications.
Ukraine did build fortifications, just not right on the border. Building fortifications too close to the border would put the workers constructing them at risk and gives little notice for an incoming attack. I will concede, from reports I read that suggest, the fortifications the Ukranians do have aren't very complex and have big gaps between minefields.

The new Kharkiv front is overhyped. The Russian's aren't trying to take Kharkiv, just draw resources away from other fronts. Perhaps they are probing Ukranian defenses in anticipation of a larger attack?

I personally think Russia doesn't have the ability to take Kharkiv, it's a city of ~1million people 20miles away from the border of Russia.

Russia experienced ~20k deaths & 60k injuries taking Bakhmut, a city of ~70k right on the frontline.

For Kharkiv, Russia will have to attack with hundreds of thousands of troops and take hundreds of square miles of land around in order to siege the city... or wait years and years until the West gets tired of supporting Ukraine. I doubt Russia can support either option without facing some type of major internal destabilization.
 
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Things are changing. Damage at all 4 sites - refineries, oil depots, ports, electrical infrastructure hit last night.

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To outlast an enemy you need much fewer deaths/amputees than Russia is currently seeing.
 
No, it's just an excuse given by the Ukrainians for their lack of preparedness around Kharkiv. While they can't use some Western weapons in Russia, they still have many of their own that they could have used. At the very least, they should have built fortifications.
It really isn't, the supply lines and depots for Russia's Kharkiv assault are all in Russia, as is the supporting artillery. The assault was expected, that's why Russia has lost an average of ~1,000 troops per km^2 in that sector.

Translation: Kharkiv assault has failed.
 
Ukraine did build fortifications, just not right on the border. Building fortifications too close to the border would put the workers constructing them at risk and gives little notice for an incoming attack. I will concede, from reports I read that suggest, the fortifications the Ukranians do have aren't very complex and have big gaps between minefields.

The new Kharkiv front is overhyped. The Russian's aren't trying to take Kharkiv, just draw resources away from other fronts. Perhaps they are probing Ukranian defenses in anticipation of a larger attack?

I personally think Russia doesn't have the ability to take Kharkiv, it's a city of ~1million people 20miles away from the border of Russia.

Russia experienced ~20k deaths & 60k injuries taking Bakhmut, a city of ~70k right on the frontline.

For Kharkiv, Russia will have to attack with hundreds of thousands of troops and take hundreds of square miles of land around in order to siege the city... or wait years and years until the West gets tired of supporting Ukraine. I doubt Russia can support either option without facing some type of major internal destabilization.
I believe Russia was trying for more, but their losses have been too high and progress to slow. At the current rate Russia would need to lose 31.5 million troops to take the Kharkiv sector, which is likely its entire fighting-aged male population.
 
Ukrainian kamikaze UAVs attacked a Russian oil refinery in the city of Tuapse and an oil depot in Novorossiysk this morning. Ukrainian kamikaze drones “Lyuty” from Ukroboronprom, developed in 2023, were used for the attack. The kamikaze UAV "Fierce" is made of fiberglass with epoxy resin, the design uses metal mesh reinforcement and plywood to provide rigidity. The drone has a German 50-horsepower Hirth F-23 gasoline engine.
The UAV is aimed at the target using an inertial system with correction based on a satellite signal. The weight of the UAV is about 300 kg, the mass of the warhead is from 50 to 75 kg, the flight range is up to 1000 km. Cruising speed: 150-180 km/h, flight duration about 8 hours. The price of the "Fierce" UAV is about 200 thousand dollars.

 
Ukraine did build fortifications, just not right on the border. Building fortifications too close to the border would put the workers constructing them at risk and gives little notice for an incoming attack. I will concede, from reports I read that suggest, the fortifications the Ukranians do have aren't very complex and have big gaps between minefields.

The new Kharkiv front is overhyped. The Russian's aren't trying to take Kharkiv, just draw resources away from other fronts. Perhaps they are probing Ukranian defenses in anticipation of a larger attack?

I personally think Russia doesn't have the ability to take Kharkiv, it's a city of ~1million people 20miles away from the border of Russia.

Russia experienced ~20k deaths & 60k injuries taking Bakhmut, a city of ~70k right on the frontline.

For Kharkiv, Russia will have to attack with hundreds of thousands of troops and take hundreds of square miles of land around in order to siege the city... or wait years and years until the West gets tired of supporting Ukraine. I doubt Russia can support either option without facing some type of major internal destabilization.

While Russia took smaller towns one at a time, a city like Kharkiv will have to be seiged. But that can happen only after Donbas has fallen. So yeah, there's unlikely for much more to happen beyond this in Kharkiv, but the Russians are too far inside the region, almost 10 km. The Russians are now reliably at artillery range from Kharkiv.

It's unclear if the Russians will continue with their slow and steady advance or are planning something big before the US finishes up with elections. Right now, as Putin said, he would prefer Biden over Trump 'cause Trump can be very unpredictable. So this may play a part in whatever they have decided to do. At the very least, Kharkiv is back in play.
 
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Russians are not in arty range of Kharkiv city itself they need another 7-10kms to comfortably strike the central part without getting droned or arty themselves.

I think the Russians were hoping that the reports of Ukraine suffering a severe shortage of arty ammo and troops were real and could take advantage by sending 40-50k troops to invade Kharkiv but as always they FAFO. Now the new storyline is we wanted a buffer for Belgorod and never had plans to take Kharkiv.

:ROFLMAO:



Ouch! NATO SC getting personal but the truth sometimes does sting.
 
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@Innominate, @randomradio, @Picdelamirand-oil

Is Russia running out of air defence missiles?

Drone attack on Russia's Tuapse oil refinery: Analysts explain strikes uniqueness. Analysts say that the strike on the Tuapse oil refinery was indicative and shows that the Russians have no air defense, according to Defense Express.


 
Russians are not in arty range of Kharkiv city itself they need another 7-10kms to comfortably strike the central part without getting droned or arty themselves.

Why would they need to hit the center? UAF is in the periphery, where the fortifications are.

I think the Russians were hoping that the reports of Ukraine suffering a severe shortage of arty ammo and troops were real and could take advantage by sending 40-50k troops to invade Kharkiv but as always they FAFO. Now the new storyline is we wanted a buffer for Belgorod and never had plans to take Kharkiv.

No, the offensive was carried out by about 10 battalions, about 15000 men including support. The 40-50k number is across the entire non-combat frontline all the way to Belarus.


Everybody figured this out in 2022, so he's stating the obvious. Hence the use of more firepower to take targets.
@Innominate, @randomradio, @Picdelamirand-oil

Is Russia running out of air defence missiles?





:ROFLMAO:

The Russians have enough air defense to take on NATO.
 
I think the Russians were hoping that the reports of Ukraine suffering a severe shortage of arty ammo and troops were real and could take advantage by sending 40-50k troops to invade Kharkiv but as always they FAFO. Now the new storyline is we wanted a buffer for Belgorod and never had plans to take Kharkiv.
The bigger question is why do Russians who were supposed to be crippled by sanctions and running out of bombs missiles and tanks and fighting with shovels are able to bomb and hit Ukraine constantly. Ukraine which has entire firepower of NATO behind it and getting arms constantly.

This is now a war of attrition and it looks like Ukraine is not really on winning side.
 
The bigger question is why do Russians who were supposed to be crippled by sanctions and running out of bombs missiles and tanks and fighting with shovels are able to bomb and hit Ukraine constantly

Because they are a "superpawah" and have been getting arty and missile from North Korea. You've been hiding under a rock? :rolleyes:
. Ukraine which has entire firepower of NATO behind it and getting arms constantly.

Bit of a drama queen, eh? However please do post what "has the entire firepower of NATO" means to you? "Getting arms constantly" as in arty and rocket arty that is false. Ukraine went on a huge shortage and Russians couldn't take advantage of it.
This is now a war of attrition and it looks like Ukraine is not really on winning side.

I don't think you know what war of attrition means when Russia is still sending mechanize assaults and getting blasted at Chasiv-Arrr and they are trying to assault Kharkiv with 40-50k troops and hundreds of armored vehicles. We're talking about 2 divisions worth of troops and armored vehicles you don't war of attrition with those numbers.
 

Explosions were reported at refinery in Slavyansk-na-Kubani of Krasnodar Krai​

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ENEMY OIL BASES ON FIRE: details of the attacks​


Ship hit at Sevastopol