I’m reading a lot of articles right now, and there are some people in Russia who I think really understand the dire straits the economy is headed towards while there others that are, maybe in denial?
One person spoke as if things might slow down, maybe like their industry did in 2015 & 2016 but would ultimately be ok. They were relying on the expectation of big projects that the government said they were going to fund.
The problem is, the government may not be funding them.
In addition, the labor force is shrinking, the transportation capacity is shrinking, cross border payments are difficult. All the things you need for growth are missing.
I think some people are going to be in for a very rude awakening.
In addition, Putin & Company is suggesting that they will fix many of the problems related to labor shortages through mechanization. But Russia lacks the capacity to mechanize, and doing much of that would require government subsidies which the government can’t afford
I’m trying to think of a single example where Russia has successfully managed to import substitute. Even buying out foreign business that left hasn’t be that great. I don’t know…how did that Starbucks substitute turn out? Even the McDonald’s replacement isn’t as good.
But substituting actuation industrial production? Not really?
Even when you’re discussing things like software replacements, they just do not have the capacity to recreate those on their own, and much of the talent to do so left.
One of the reasons they even said they were leaving was because they were worried that they would be left behind as Russia lost access to international standards of software and thus if they didn’t leave now, then later their skills would no longer be transferable.
In addition, in an effort to keep inflation and prices low the government limited how much prices could rise on software. This means that one of the main means of attracting and keeping talent is stripped from the software companies.
The government may have had OTHER incentives to keep people in the IT industry, but subsidies are drying up. Preferential mortgage programs have been changed to require the person to remain in approved field for the entire length of the mortgage.
None of the things I am seeing are solving any of their problems, and I think some people are now beginning to see the truth, others are still in denial. I am curious to see what happens when the milestones when they believed things would improve pass them by.
“The Russian government is discussing a seven-fold reduction in the production of civil aircraft, the Air Transport Review informs us, instead of 1,759 aircrafts: 994 airplanes and 765 helicopters they are proposing to produce only 235 airplanes and helicopters by 2030.
Moreover, this reduction in “ambitious plans” is not just happening, but naturally “at the request of workers”, the substitute for which in modern times is reasoning that, supposedly, “there is no economically justified demand for the number of aircraft specified in the plans”, which was shown by some “independent” audit (independent from whom?).
What can you say here? It is obvious that even the Ministry of the Shift to the Right could not fulfill its task no matter how hard it tried. Well, existing players just can't manage aircraft construction!
Do you think anyone will be punished? Are you crazy! No one will be punished! Because our "management", even though everything falls out of their hands and they only step on rakes, is not punishable and not replaceable, but only rewarded and promoted. This is the law of life under neo-feudalism, what can you do.
It is clear that the planes we will not build, we will just buy, for example from China and the "management" will not particularly need to work, and the personal gain of officials will be greater, and the country will again depend on a foreign uncle but who cares about that!
You can even argue that an "independent audit" will show that there is "economically justified demand" for purchased planes, unlike homemade ones.
By the way, producing 235 planes and helicopters is also a difficult task, and in a year it will become clear that it will not be possible to do more than 7-8 by 2030. And why not? If no failures are assessed on their merits, then everything is permitted.
How many of these projects were there... They all started out well, but the executors turned out to be incapable of any business (except corruption and the like), embezzlement (and, accordingly, enrichment of those involved) reached such heights that the projects became indescribably expensive, deadlines were shifted endlessly, and ended in nothing. And even if they did end in something, then this something most of all resembled a Pyrrhic victory, no matter what branch of the "national economy" it occurred in. And no one ever got into trouble for it.
Well, the President will scold, make a stern face... "And everything will repeat itself from the beginning"... Because it all benefits the "bosses" - those involved in any project get fantastically rich and make fabulous careers, and there are not fewer, but more projects: the old ones hang around, and new ones are invented...
It would be fine - our distant ancestors already knew that "our country is rich, there is just no order", but… one terrible thought begins to torment you when you think about all this.
What if SMO is the same ordinary "project" for the "bosses", like all the others, and "they wanted the best", but "something went wrong": and they don't know how to do anything, and they lost control, and embezzlement (and, accordingly, the enrichment of those involved) is off the charts, and, as usual, the deadlines are creeping further, striving for infinity...
Reality turned out to be richer than the schemes, and it does not correspond at all to the original beautiful pictures. And most importantly, we are not alone in this project, we have an enemy, and what an enemy - the united West and the scoundrels use our mistakes to their advantage.
But the "project" is a project, no one has repealed its laws, and we only know how to do this: "Don't shoot the pianist, he plays as best he can."
As a result, "it will turn out as it always does." I mean, nothing will work out. And if victory is ours, it will be not thanks to, but in spite of. Can this happen, what do you think?”
Another oil depot in Rostov is now burning, in solidarity with the Proletarsk one.
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