We're beginning to see the broad contours of the deal that can be expected. Namely:
> Russia keeps most of what it currently holds. Whether their annexation will be recognized or not remains to be seen.
> Crimea is off the table entirely (obviously).
> No NATO membership for Ukraine.
It's possible the Russians might accept the annexation not being legitimized in exchange for a binding guarantee that Ukraine will not become a NATO member, and possible restrictions on the type & number of weapons that can be sold to Ukraine from here on. They're also likely to press for lifting of all sanctions.
Vladimir Putin is open to discussing a Ukraine ceasefire deal with Donald Trump but rules out making any major territorial concessions and insists Kyiv abandon ambitions to join NATO, five sources with knowledge of Kremlin thinking told Reuters.
In the first detailed reporting of what President Putin would accept in any deal brokered by Trump, the five current and former Russian officials said the Kremlin could broadly agree to freeze the conflict along the front lines. There may be room for negotiation over the precise carve-up of the four eastern regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, according to three of the people who all requested anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.
Russia may also be open to withdrawing from the relatively small patches of territory it holds in the Kharkiv and Mykolaiv regions, in the north and south of Ukraine, two of the officials said.
Putin said this month that any ceasefire deal should reflect the "realities" on the ground but that he feared a short-lived truce which would only allow the West to rearm Ukraine. "If there is no neutrality, it is difficult to imagine the existence of any good-neighbourly relations between Russia and Ukraine," Putin told the Valdai discussion group on Nov. 7. "Why? Because this would mean that Ukraine will be constantly used as a tool in the wrong hands and to the detriment of the interests of the Russian Federation."