Ukraine - Russia Conflict

We're beginning to see the broad contours of the deal that can be expected. Namely:

> Russia keeps most of what it currently holds. Whether their annexation will be recognized or not remains to be seen.
> Crimea is off the table entirely (obviously).
> No NATO membership for Ukraine.

It's possible the Russians might accept the annexation not being legitimized in exchange for a binding guarantee that Ukraine will not become a NATO member, and possible restrictions on the type & number of weapons that can be sold to Ukraine from here on. They're also likely to press for lifting of all sanctions.


Vladimir Putin is open to discussing a Ukraine ceasefire deal with Donald Trump but rules out making any major territorial concessions and insists Kyiv abandon ambitions to join NATO, five sources with knowledge of Kremlin thinking told Reuters.

In the first detailed reporting of what President Putin would accept in any deal brokered by Trump, the five current and former Russian officials said the Kremlin could broadly agree to freeze the conflict along the front lines. There may be room for negotiation over the precise carve-up of the four eastern regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, according to three of the people who all requested anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

Russia may also be open to withdrawing from the relatively small patches of territory it holds in the Kharkiv and Mykolaiv regions, in the north and south of Ukraine, two of the officials said.

Putin said this month that any ceasefire deal should reflect the "realities" on the ground but that he feared a short-lived truce which would only allow the West to rearm Ukraine. "If there is no neutrality, it is difficult to imagine the existence of any good-neighbourly relations between Russia and Ukraine," Putin told the Valdai discussion group on Nov. 7. "Why? Because this would mean that Ukraine will be constantly used as a tool in the wrong hands and to the detriment of the interests of the Russian Federation."
Sanctions cannot be lifted under any circumstances other than a full withdrawal. No way.


 
Ukrainian media published footage of a strike by Ukrainian Storm Shadow cruise missiles, made in England, on a building in the village of Maryino in the Kursk region of Russia. The strike was carried out on buildings on the territory of the estate of the princes Baryatinsky, it is unknown what is there. According to Ukrainian media, there is a communications bunker under the building. The second version of the media is that there were North Korean soldiers in the bunker. Judging by the video, there is no air defense in the area. Or the air defense is not equipped with radar to detect low-flying targets, this happens quite often. Why is this happening, the length of the front line is about 2000 km, the Russian army does not have enough air defense systems to cover all the facilities in Russia, since there are thousands of them. It is worth noting that no air defense can shoot down 100% of targets. Earlier, it was proposed to create an air defense belt around Ukraine, but it is unknown whether this was implemented. The video was filmed by a Ukrainian drone on November 20 and shortened. Judging by the video, about 10 missiles reached their target. At the end, the results of the missile strike are shown, but it is difficult to understand anything from them.

 
Ukrainian media reported that Russia used the RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile to strike the Yuzhmash plant in Dnepropetrovsk. This has not been officially confirmed. There is almost no information about the Russian RS-26 Rubezh missile system. The missile's range is about 3,500 km and the missile's weight is about 50 tons. The RS-26 Rubezh missile's warhead presumably has 6 separating warheads. The guidance system is autonomous and inertial. The video shows a truly unusual missile strike on Ukraine. The attack resembles something similar to strikes by separating warheads of an intercontinental ballistic missile. The missile's warhead was uncharged. There are media versions that conventional Iranian or North Korean missiles were used.