Mille jours de guerre en Ukraine : l'épuisement
A thousand days of war in Ukraine: exhaustion
The invasion of Ukraine has turned into a military, economic and geopolitical fiasco for Russia, but Kiev is on the verge of exhaustion, faced with an enemy four times its population. For the moment, there seems to be no prospect of a reasonable compromise.
The Russian army was supposed to be in Kiev in four days. A thousand days after the start of the invasion of Ukraine on Tuesday, it is still stalling in the Donbass. True, it is gobbling up nearly 15 km2 a day with its fearsome gliding bombs. And it will soon be able to call on 10,000 North Korean soldiers to make gains that the Kremlin hopes will be decisive between now and Donald Trump's arrival in the White House in two months' time, opening the door to the unknown.
Vladimir Putin, whose conviction, expressed in the summer of 2021, that ‘Russians and Ukrainians in fact form a single people occupying the same spiritual and historical space’ should have been a warning to Paris and Berlin in particular. The invasion, presented by its intelligence services as a walk in the park, turned into a fiasco.
Failure on all fronts
Within a thousand days, the Russian army had largely discredited itself against a much smaller opponent and had lost at least half of its operational armoured vehicles. Its kinjal missiles, supposedly impossible to intercept, are in fact impossible to intercept. A third of its Black Sea fleet has been sunk and the remaining ships no longer dare leave port. Western intelligence services also estimate that nearly 100,000 Russian soldiers have been killed and 300,000 wounded, a toll six times higher than that of ten years of conflict in Afghanistan.
Moscow has achieved virtually none of its objectives in Ukraine itself: although it annexed four regions in September 2021 - Kherson, Zaporizhia, Luhansk and Donetsk - it does not fully control any of them. It has obviously not succeeded in ‘denazifying’ the regime led by Volodymyr Zelensky, who happens to be of Jewish origin, as it claimed to be aiming to do. As for the geopolitical aspect, it is distressing. The Kremlin justified the invasion as a reaction to Ukraine's desire to join NATO. As a result, two neighbouring countries with very modern armies, Sweden and Finland, have renounced their long-standing neutrality in order to join the Atlantic Alliance, and Ukraine's accession process, de facto stalled since 2008, has been relaunched.
Of course, Moscow maintains that it is not as isolated as the West claims. While they condemned the Russian invasion at the UN General Assembly, the majority of countries in the South refused to follow the West in imposing sanctions on Russia. But as they are generally also exporters of raw materials, and therefore not very complementary to the Russian economy, they have little to sell or buy from it. Moscow, two-thirds of whose imports, particularly capital goods and high technology, came from the West before the conflict, is now forced to turn to China on a massive scale. And Russia even managed to antagonise Austria, which has been the most supportive Western country for half a century, by cutting off its gas supplies without warning on Saturday.
Ukraine exhausted
Thanks to an effective resistance that surprised most observers in the spring of 2022 and the supply of Western arms and munitions, Ukraine seems to be able to avoid losing the war... without actually winning it. It is unable to protect its energy infrastructure, which is targeted almost daily by Moscow. Its human losses are very high (at least 50,000 killed) and the demographic balance is not in its favour. The number of desertions has soared recently. The proportion of Ukrainians opposed to any territorial concessions in exchange for peace is falling steadily, although it remains above 58%.
‘Tatiana Kastoueva-Jean, a Russia specialist at the French Institute of International Relations, sums up: ‘The two protagonists are clearly exhausted. The Russian economy is under the illusion that it is doing well thanks to orders for the military-industrial complex, but interest rates are now in excess of 28%. Thanks to its legendary resilience, it will no doubt be able to support the war effort for another 18 to 24 months, depending on the specialists, but there is a risk that it will then collapse.
However, while everyone is talking about inevitable negotiations soon after Donald Trump's arrival in the White House, it is hard to see what compromise Kiev and Moscow might find, according to the researcher. The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has for the first time stated that it is absolutely essential to end the war next year, suggesting that concessions may be inevitable. As an aside, many Ukrainians admit that the Donbass, destroyed and deserted by patriotic Ukrainians, is probably lost. But there is no question of giving up Zaporijia and Kherson, or giving up the prospect of joining NATO.
But the Kremlin also annexed Zaporizhia and Kherson, as well as Crimea, and the mere mention of the possibility of reversing this decision, which is enshrined in the Constitution, is worth five years in prison in Moscow. Not to mention the fact that Russia will never hand over any of the war criminals claimed by Kiev, nor is it prepared to pay the slightest financial compensation for the damage caused, in excess of 450 billion dollars according to the IMF. A compromise would therefore probably leave the burden of reconstruction to Western taxpayers. The final, dizzying lesson to be learned from a thousand days of fighting that is changing the face of the world is that if the United States does not succeed in preventing Russia from winning, any country neighbouring an acrimonious nuclear power in Asia, the Middle East or Europe will be strongly encouraged to acquire atomic bombs...