Great. So even the French and Germans don't consider Ukraine a democracy. So it should be fine then.
As per them, the Ukrainians lack democracy and rule of law, which is why they were rejected from joining NATO.
So what you're basically saying is the Russians can't be controlled, that China would rather cut off relations with them and hurt themselves than keep buying cheap oil from them. Yeah, dude, the Chinese have very large bridges to sell to you.
Not really. I have never considered India to be a competitor to China in trade until like last year or two, since COVID. Mainly because we are now sure that China's gonna be isolated in the long term, with Western and other East Asian companies leaving China for India and ASEAN. So nothing to do with our own capabilites, but China merely being a victim of politics.
Doesn't matter who else will buy Russian oil, China and India will benefit a lot from discounted prices over the long term. India's oil imports are expected to double over the decade, so there's a lot of room for growth.
Think about the business opportunity India has. We buy oil with a $35 discount, and resell it at market price. Hell, all we gotta do is buy Russian oil and then sell it to all those countries that will suffer from oil originally supplied to them being diverted to Europe, and with say a $5 discount over the market price, possibly 50-60 countries. Do you realise how much hate the US will get from those countries if they try to stop that?
I don't think you understand the supply-demand dynamics of the oil sector. To control market prices, there is only finite output. If Russian oil gets unsold, and others raise to compensate for loss in supply, then a sudden surge in supply in the market due to China's purchase of the unsold oil will result in a massive drop in oil prices and destabilise suppliers, including American suppliers. So they won't willy-nilly raise output to compensate for the loss of Russian oil from the market. Simply put, the Russian oil has to go somewhere. If it's not Europe, it will simply go anywhere else. And the Russians can keep their output going for years, they have the money for it, and the other suppliers know it.
What's more likely to happen is once the war is over, the sanctions will be rolled back, at least enough to keep Russian oil and gas flowing into Europe. The only real change will be a faster transition to renewables globally, not just in Europe.
Yeah, dude, given your understanding of the oil market, you surely know what you're talking about.
There is no elsewhere. No one is retarded enough to increase output with Russian oil around.
What you're hoping Europe will do is impossible. Neither can China replace Russian oil overnight. Anything you wanna do needs years. And I really mean years. In the oil industry, the supplier is king.