Ukraine - Russia Conflict
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Russia is killing its economy along with its people to pursue Putin's war of imperial delusion.
I do find it revelatory that there is no budget to pay the Russian troops. After all, why bother budgeting for wages they'll never live to receive?
Денег нет, но вы сражайтесь. Владимир Милов о том, как у Путина кончаются деньги на войну
Говоря об экономическом измерении путинской мобилизации, большинство комментаторов концентрируются на катастрофических последствиях для рынка квалифицированного труда и потерях предприятиями рабочих рукtheins.ru
No money, but you fight. Vladimir Milov on how Putin is running out of money for the war
October 3, 2022.
Vladimir Milov
Politician, economist, social activist
When talking about the economic dimension of Putin's mobilization, most commentators focus on the catastrophic consequences for the skilled labor market and the loss of jobs by companies. This is all true: for example, back in July Putin admitted at a meeting with his ministers that a shortage of a million skilled workers is expected in the IT industry alone over the next two years, and now it is clear that this shortage will only worsen.
According to a Rosstat survey of entrepreneurs, the lack of qualified workers is one of the top 5 factors limiting production growth in the industry, and the importance of this problem in 2022 has increased. Mobilization poses the most unexpected threats, including to attempts to circumvent Western sanctions: for example, it hits small companies that specialize in complex schemes of parallel imports.
But the magnitude of the impact of mobilization on the skilled labor market remains to be seen, and so far we can only guess. But what has now become abundantly clear is that Putin will not have any sufficient budget to maintain, equip, and supply the newly mobilized troops.
This is clear from the document titled, "Basic Trends in Budgetary, Taxation, and Customs Tariff Policy for 2023-2025," which was obtained by Vedomosti. This document, for the first time, allows us to see the scale of the increase in military expenditures in connection with Putin's aggression against Ukraine. Its main conclusion is resounding: Putin will not have enough money for further financing of the war and mobilization. All of his efforts are doomed, primarily financially.
Putin won't have enough money to continue funding the war and mobilization
What follows from this document? That military expenditures in 2022-2024 (the government does not plan them for a later period, and we want to believe that another government will decide this question in the future) are planned to increase from the previously approved about 3 trillion rubles per year to about 5 trillion (a total of 3.4 trillion for the three years from 2022 to 2024 inclusive).
This is absolutely insufficient even to finance the current war, not to mention the expenditures for the additionally mobilized manpower of several hundred thousand people. We don't know how many Russians will be drafted in the end by mobilization - maybe the declared 300,000, maybe more or less. But relatively speaking, this is a force comparable to the current number of contract servicemen announced by Shoigu (the leadership of the Defense Ministry talked about 400,000 contract servicemen).
To put it simply, in the earlier approved peacetime military budget, of the 3.5 trillion rubles spent on maintenance of the army (salaries and supplies) approximately 1.2-1.5 trillion rubles (the rest was spent on military industrial complex and armament procurement, mainly through "closed" articles of the military budget). This is already very small for the second largest army in the world. For example, in December, at the board meeting of the Defense Ministry, Putin admitted that the average salary of a lieutenant was only 81,000 rubles.
It is clear that under conditions of such a large-scale war the expenses on salaries including combat pay must increase dramatically. According to my assessment, in these items alone the cost of maintenance of the troops currently stationed in Ukraine should have been increased by at least 3-4 trillion rubles a year, but not by the planned 1-2 trillion rubles in any case.
In the conditions of a large-scale war, the expenditures on salaries should rise sharply
However, in addition to the active troops Putin wants to mobilize a second army, comparable in size, officially equating the newly mobilized with contract servicemen. It is obvious that even an increase in the military budget to 5 trillion rubles a year will not be enough for these purposes. Apparently, Putin and the Ministry of Finance are preparing for mass "cheating" of the military of their salaries (show these figures to your relatives and friends of the military and warn them about it) - there is no other explanation (in the case of deaths, the families will still have to pay large compensation).
Everything is very bad with the supply of the army in general. In the current military budget for these purposes only 436 billion rubles are allocated for the entire army (data is given in the materials for the approved federal budget of December 2021). We see this miserable "supply" on the battlefield in all its glory. For Putin to establish a normal supply of the army, he would have to allocate funds for this purpose of a completely different order: several trillion rubles per year. No one is going to do that. Apparently, there is a calculation that the military will make food and uniforms "by themselves".
Miserable "supply" seen on the battlefield in all its glory
Besides the fact that it is not possible to fit into the newly proposed 4.5-5 trillion rubles a year to finance the newly recruited troops and their supplies, there is a more serious problem. In the previous years, about two-thirds of the military budget was spent not on the army itself but on the production and purchase of weapons, the military-industrial complex. Military expenditures were mostly secret (the open one third of the budget was used to maintain the army itself, which appeared to be a sort of unloved Cinderella in comparison with the main recipient of military allocations, the military-industrial complex, favored by Putin).
Although we do not know exactly how the articles of the increased military budget will be distributed, we can say with certainty that amid the enormous losses of arms in Ukraine and the depletion of ammunition reserves, the share of spending on the MIC in the military budget for 2022-2024 will certainly not decrease, and may even increase. Therefore, no special additional money will most likely go to the army itself.
The army will not get any special additional money.
It turns out that nobody is going to finance or supply this enormous newly-recruited 300,000 (or whatever) force. Leaving aside other aspects, we shall dwell only on one conclusion - the army which is not paid for and not supplied with any supplies will not be able to fight. The fact is that the newly mobilized troops are literally thrown to their certain death, because not enough money has been allocated for their equipment and supplies. Given the current scale of the war, one would expect Putin to increase the military budget to, say, 9-10 trillion rubles a year - but nothing of the kind is observed.
You may ask: is it possible that there are some secret expenditures that we don't know about? No, there are not. The figures for total military expenditures given above include secret items and are reflected in the generalized figures of the Ministry of Finance. If there were anything else, it could be calculated. Conclusions about why Putin throws the newly mobilized into battle without allocating funds for such basic things as salaries and army supplies are left for you to draw-it seems we are dealing with one of the most glaring examples of a complete breakdown of the Russian system of government, which is generally unable to adequately assess reality. The closer is Putin's catastrophic defeat.
Putin says mobilised troops will get paid 195000 rubles per month from the next month.
Not as much as they are spending though. And who is extracting and exploring for them these days? What are they going to extract it with?
But we're talking about smarter people who can pass the quota system. Either way they'll be leaving Russia.
Who exactly? Russia has no money to offer sops with, this war is costing more than their entire annual defence budget several times over.
'Former' Prime Minister = Irrelevant.
So that's $10bn/year + what they're paying existing 200k troops -> $16.7bn in soldier's wages alone, which is >25% of their 2021 military spending and doesn't include what they're paying soldiers back home, civilian personnel, or AF and Navy wages. So they'll likely be paying >50% of 2021's military budget on personnel alone in total.
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zelensky (...... his backers ) aims for moscow,
I wouldnt be surprised if iran ends up having nukes
I wouldnt be surprised if iran ends up having nukes
Quotas are largely lottery based.
Former or not, it's a public revelation.
25% of the budget is really cheap. In India, salaries and pensions are 53% of the budget.
Anyway, their defence budget has seen a big boost. 40% hike apparently. That's massive. And I don't think the war money is coming out of the defence budget.
Europe alone has given Russia €104B in oil and gas payments since Feb. China's given them 40B. A bunch of other countries including India have given them 22B. They are expected to make well over $300B in resource exports this year. More than enough to pay for the war while gaining a lot of territory, people and resources as well. Especially the food supply and the corresponding political benefits from MENA, the biggest oil suppliers who need said food.
This war will give the Russians a lot of leverage over Europe because Europe needs MENA energy, and MENA needs Russo-Ukrainian food supply. A lot of people have not factored this into the equation properly.
(THIS IS A BUTT HURT ALERT! THIS IS A BUTT HURT ALERT!)
Now hear this all Russian fanboys.... prepare thy butt by placing butt hurt cream in easy to reach area for incoming/imminent butt hurtness... you have been warned!
Kremlin Teevee stooges preparing the population for not only a duhfeet in Kherson but in other occupied lands. I don't believe they have any troops in Kherson other than the first line of defense which when that breaks it is clear sailing to Kherson and Derp River.
Now hear this all Russian fanboys.... prepare thy butt by placing butt hurt cream in easy to reach area for incoming/imminent butt hurtness... you have been warned!
Kremlin Teevee stooges preparing the population for not only a duhfeet in Kherson but in other occupied lands. I don't believe they have any troops in Kherson other than the first line of defense which when that breaks it is clear sailing to Kherson and Derp River.
How about this?
Israel ‘will not’ supply weapons to Ukraine: Defense minister
JERUSALEM: Israel will not send weapons to Ukraine, Defense Minister Benny Gantz said Wednesday, two days after Russia warned that an Israeli move to bolster Kyiv’s forces would severely damage relations. “Our policy vis-a-vis Ukraine will not change — we will continue to support and stand with...
www.arabnews.com
No they aren't. Those who earnt it get in.
Former would be like Gorbachev weighing in if he was still alive.
25% of the budget only covers part of the wages bill though. Not all troops are deployed. It also doesn't cover the AF and Navy or civilian personnel. You can times that figure by 3.
Where from?
Which is less than they would normally give when Russia isn't suffering war costs and sanctions. Russia is dependent on resources for 60% of its GDP, so $300bn is negligible, unless they can balance the books with a GDP of only $500bn.
Economy of Russia - Wikipedia
Russia's Natural Resources Valued at 60% of GDP - The Moscow Times
Russia’s Natural Resources and Environment Ministry estimates that the combined worth of the country’s oil, gas and other resources amounts to 60 percent of its gross domestic product, the RBC news website reported on Thursday.
Yes, but Russia allowing the passage of grain to Africa is the only reason that Ukraine hasn't received ATACMS, SLAM-ER and long range UUVs capable of killing ships and subs with a complete derestriction on targeting. Many are arguing that they should go this route anyway in light of Russia's recent attacks, since Russia can't blockade grain without a Black Sea fleet anyway.
It will supply a detection system though.How about this?
“Our policy vis-a-vis Ukraine will not change — we will continue to support and stand with the West, we will not provide weapon systems,” Gantz told a briefing of European Union ambassadors, according to a statement from his office.Israel ‘will not’ supply weapons to Ukraine: Defense minister
JERUSALEM: Israel will not send weapons to Ukraine, Defense Minister Benny Gantz said Wednesday, two days after Russia warned that an Israeli move to bolster Kyiv’s forces would severely damage relations. “Our policy vis-a-vis Ukraine will not change — we will continue to support and stand with...
Gantz: Israel may supply Ukraine with rocket and drone alert system, but not weapons
Defense minister says Jerusalem seeking info needed for development of 'life-saving civilian early-warning system,’ amid repeated Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities
www.timesofisrael.com
And Iran is getting EU sanctions now anyway.
Says Mr. I support Imperialism except when it's British but the ebil West are hypocrites.
That's not even a sheep, it's a confused cow with BSE.
Oh yeah, real funny, until Pakistan then gives Saudi Arabia nukes. There's nothing funny about nuclear proliferation.zelensky (...... his backers ) aims for moscow,
I wouldnt be surprised if iran ends up having nukes
Now Russia has done it.
Secret Ukrainian project — 1000 km range, 75 kg warhead. What could it be? - Technology Org
A new Ukrainian-made weapon with a maximum range of 1000 km could seem like a joke. But the hint about this new project came from a well-known company.
