People may not be realising but wait for 2024 the propaganda bombardment for the general elections will be something that will even surpass what happened during the 2020 American election.
Ukraine - Russia Conflict
- Thread starter randomradio
- Start date
That is a lot of Russian troops dead in that short time.
But then again this is from Milley who is still employed for some reason.
Propaganda will be along predictable lines though, as long as Modi doesn't give them an excuse. But I really want to see what the West actually focus on in their narrative. I just hope it won't be the same old trope, I am actually hoping to see some Khalistani butthurt in the mix. I am actually guessing that the West is preparing to attack India's caste system in some way. Anyway, compared to the muted stuff from Russia and China, the West is more anti-India when it comes to propaganda.
Coming to relationships, we have major advantages in dealing with both the US and Russia. The Americans complement our service industry and attract students and labour while we get resources and military technology from Russia. Having to choose between the two this prematurely is a problem we do not want to deal with.
U.S. Warns of Grim Toll if Putin Pursues Full Invasion of Ukraine
Biden administration officials told lawmakers that a large-scale Russian invasion could kill as many as 50,000 civilians and prompt a refugee crisis in Europe.
Ukraine is pretty much gone if Russia invades. What the west can do is ensure that Russians suffer a lot higher casualties than they want in this process.U.S. Warns of Grim Toll if Putin Pursues Full Invasion of Ukraine
Biden administration officials told lawmakers that a large-scale Russian invasion could kill as many as 50,000 civilians and prompt a refugee crisis in Europe.www.nytimes.com
And then use this opportunity to get neutral nations like Finland and Sweden into NATO.
In the longer run , it's doesn't matter that Russia invades Ukriane or not. It will be a big financial liability for them.
Hopefully 2023 sees UCC and 2 child policy being passed. Would play into BJPs hands for 2024.
Ukraine is financially dangerous for Russia. While they may end up having to deal with an insurgency, the sanctions will definitely be damaging. The US will make it difficult for Russia to sell oil and gas even outside Europe.
Potential sanctions:
What Sanctions Against Russia Could Look Like
Possible penalties from the West if Moscow decides to invade Ukraine
www.voanews.com
Senators close in on 'mother of all sanctions' bill against Russia
A bipartisan group of senators is within striking distance of a deal that would impose crippling sanctions on Russia.
Brent crude is touching 100$ / barrel. If it goes to 150 - 200$ & stays there , which is what sanctions engender & entails , I wonder how many nations including the European ones have the appetite for it .
Lets not fall for all this US propoganda. What these ba stards don't have the balls to achieve on the battlefield after sufficiently provoking a conflict , they're trying to achieve via scare mongering. These Hillbillies couldn't even handle goat *censored*ers armed with 20th century weapons. What's the worst they can do?!
Lets not fall for all this US propoganda. What these ba stards don't have the balls to achieve on the battlefield after sufficiently provoking a conflict , they're trying to achieve via scare mongering. These Hillbillies couldn't even handle goat *censored*ers armed with 20th century weapons. What's the worst they can do?!
Putin, Facing Sanction Threats, Has Been Saving for This Day
Since paying the price for annexing Crimea in 2014, Russia has tried to make its economy sanctions-proof, hoarding currency to insulate the country.
Russian sanctions on electronics.
This will be a very serious blow to Russia if implemented. While the drop in exchange rate has made their exports more competitive, to the point where they can balance their budget with just $44 per oil barrel, their import cost of electronics has doubled. So sanctions on electronics can make the situation way worse than it already is.
But then most of their consumer electronics comes from China anyway, and military semiconductors can be done within Russia itself, even if at higher costs. So the ones who will lose the most will be non-Chinese companies. Of course, the Russian public will have less options as a consequence. Re-exporting goods through the blackmarket will definitely go up.
The Biden administration is threatening to use a novel export control to damage strategic Russian industries, from artificial intelligence and quantum computing to civilian aerospace, if Moscow invades Ukraine, administration officials say.
The administration may also decide to apply the control more broadly in a way that would potentially deprive Russian citizens of some smartphones, tablets and video game consoles, said the officials.
Such moves would expand the reach of U.S. sanctions beyond financial targets to the deployment of a weapon used only once before — to nearly cripple the Chinese tech giant Huawei.
The weapon, known as the foreign direct product rule, contributed to Huawei suffering its first-ever annual revenue drop, a stunning collapse of nearly 30 percent last year.
The attraction of using the foreign direct product rule derives from the fact that virtually anything electronic these days includes semiconductors, the tiny components on which all modern technology depends, from smartphones to jets to quantum computers — and that there is hardly a semiconductor on the planet that is not made with U.S. tools or designed with U.S. software. And the administration could try to force companies in other countries to stop exporting these types of goods to Russia through this rule.
“This is a slow strangulation by the U.S. government,” Dan Wang, a Shanghai-based technology analyst with research firm Gavekal Dragonomics, said of Huawei. The rule cut the firm’s supply of needed microchips, which were made outside the United States but with U.S. software or tools.
Now officials in Washington say they are working with European and Asian allies to craft a version of the rule that would aim to stop flows of crucial components to industries for which Russian President Vladimir Putin has high ambitions, such as civil aviation, maritime and high technology.
“The power of these export controls is we can degrade and atrophy the capacity of these sectors to become a key source of growth for the Russian economy,” said a senior Biden administration official, who, like others in this report, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
On Sunday, the State Department ordered the departure of all family members of U.S. Embassy personnel serving in Kyiv, citing the “threat of Russian military action.” The evacuation comes as the Biden administration weighs sending thousands of U.S. forces, as well as armaments, to the Baltic states and Poland to reinforce NATO, officials said. The officials stressed that no final decision has been taken on possible troop deployments, which were first reported by the New York Times. The United States is not planning to send any additional troops to Ukraine. There are about 200 military trainers in Ukraine. Most are Florida National Guard personnel.
On Jan. 23, the State Department ordered diplomats' families to depart its embassy in Kyiv, Ukraine, due to the "continued threat of Russian military actions." (Reuters)
The effort to use export controls could face head winds from American and European business interests that fear using export controls could lead to Russian retaliation in other spheres — and eventually cause foreign companies to seek to design U.S. technology out of their products. That’s because the extension of the rule beyond a single company like Huawei to an entire country or entire sectors of a country is unprecedented.
“It’s like a magic power — you can only use it so many times before it starts to degrade,” said Robert D. Atkinson, president of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, a think tank. “Other countries will say, ‘Oh, man, the U.S. has total control over us. We’d better find alternatives.’”
Russia is vulnerable because it doesn’t produce consumer electronics or chips in large quantities, analysts say. In particular, it doesn’t make the highest-end semiconductors needed for advanced computing, an area dominated by Taiwan, South Korea, the United States, Europe and Japan.
Cutting off the country’s chip imports “would invariably hit the Russian leadership’s high-tech ambitions, whether in artificial intelligence or quantum computing,” said Will Hunt, an analyst with Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology.
The administration has not yet decided whether to restrict the export control to strategic sectors or extend it to everyday devices, officials said. Either way, said Paul Triolo, chief of technology policy at the Eurasia Group, “this would be weaponizing the U.S. semiconductor supply chain against an entire country.”
The pairing of financial sanctions with export controls would inflict pain immediately and over time. The impact of financial sanctions, which could apply to Russia’s largest banks as well as to civilian aerospace, maritime or emerging tech firms, would probably be felt first, experts say. Banking sanctions in particular probably would drive up Russian inflation and trigger a devaluation of the ruble, they say. Export controls, on the other hand, build over time as the cumulative effect of companies shutting off sales to Russia begins to hurt industrial production.
“If the objective is to impose severe and overwhelming costs on Russia’s economy, the combination of sanctions on major Russian banks and the export control would go a long way towards that, absolutely,” said Kevin Wolf, a former senior Commerce Department official who once headed the agency that implements export controls.
If the restrictions are applied broadly, they could also drive up prices for consumer electronics in Russia, analysts said.
The administration says it also may hit Russia with an export ban similar to those against Iran, Cuba, Syria and North Korea. Such a ban, experts say, probably would apply to basic electronics, aircraft parts, telecommunications items and software. But the United States exports relatively little in this area to Russia, so the measure would have limited effect unless other countries impose similar bans of their own.
Germany, which is Russia’s largest trading partner in Western Europe and is highly dependent on Russian energy, is in close” discussions with the United States on sanctions, said a German Embassy official, declining to comment further.
Targeted use of the foreign direct product rule could be a blow to Russia’s military, which relies on a type of chip called Elbrus that is designed in Russia but manufactured in Taiwan at a chip foundry called TSMC, according to Kostas Tigkos, an electronics expert at Janes Group, a U.K.-based provider of defense intelligence.
If the United States barred TSMC from supplying those chips to Russia, as it successfully barred TSMC from supplying Huawei, that would have a “devastating effect,” Tigkos said.
In a statement, TSMC said it “complies with all applicable laws and regulations” and that it has a “rigorous export control system in place … to ensure export control restrictions are followed.”
Analysts say that Western multinational firms probably would comply with the export controls. All U.S. chipmakers include clauses in their contracts requiring customers to abide by U.S. export rules. The United States also has a powerful stick to compel compliance: It could place any scofflaw companies on the Commerce Department Entity List, a blacklist of sorts that effectively bars U.S. firms from selling them their technology.
Russian government officials downplayed the potential impact.
The Russian state-owned defense and tech industry conglomerate Rostec said in a statement that while some foreign components are used in civilian products, Russia has begun to make many components on its own. “The possible imposition of additional sanctions will primarily hit the interests of American companies working for export,” Rostec said. “But we have managed and will manage again, albeit not immediately, but very quickly — we have proven this more than once.”
China could also provide an escape valve for Russia, analysts say.
The country is a big supplier of electronics to Russia. In 2020, it accounted for some 70 percent of Russia’s computer and smartphone imports, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Three of the top five smartphone brands in Russia are Chinese, according to market-research firm International Data Corporation.
Liu Pengyu, spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, suggested that Beijing would not look kindly on extraterritorial control by the United States. “China is always opposed to any country’s unilateral sanctions and so-called long-arm jurisdiction on other countries based on domestic law,” he said in a statement.
Chinese manufacturers could choose to continue selling to Russia even if they use U.S. technology in their products, and it would be difficult, for instance, to monitor Chinese smartphone sales to Russia, IDC analyst Simon Baker said.
Experts, however, said there are ways to police noncompliance. The Commerce Department often gets tips from firms about rule-breaking competitors. Its investigators scan shipping data. They also get intelligence shared from other U.S. agencies.
If Chinese firms wound up supplying Russia in violation of the rule, that would leave Washington with a major diplomatic dilemma: whether to sanction them, even if they make ordinary — not military — goods.
After the Trump administration applied the foreign direct product rule to Huawei in August 2020, the company’s smartphone sales plummeted. Earlier in 2020, it led the world in such sales. Today, it’s fallen to 10th place, according to IDC.
The most important goal now is deterrence, officials and analysts said, and that means threatening the most severe sanctions — such as severing the largest Russian banks from the U.S. financial system, said Edward Fishman, adjunct fellow at the Center for a New American Security. Export controls wouldn’t have as immediate an effect, said Fishman, a former State Department official in the Obama administration.
But, he said, they are a good move.
“The United States has no interest in aiding Russia’s technological and industrial capacity,” he said, “so long as Putin is using it to bully neighbors and attack democracy.''
Isabelle Khurshudyan and Mary Ilyushina in Moscow contributed to this report.
This will be a very serious blow to Russia if implemented. While the drop in exchange rate has made their exports more competitive, to the point where they can balance their budget with just $44 per oil barrel, their import cost of electronics has doubled. So sanctions on electronics can make the situation way worse than it already is.
But then most of their consumer electronics comes from China anyway, and military semiconductors can be done within Russia itself, even if at higher costs. So the ones who will lose the most will be non-Chinese companies. Of course, the Russian public will have less options as a consequence. Re-exporting goods through the blackmarket will definitely go up.
The Biden administration is threatening to use a novel export control to damage strategic Russian industries, from artificial intelligence and quantum computing to civilian aerospace, if Moscow invades Ukraine, administration officials say.
The administration may also decide to apply the control more broadly in a way that would potentially deprive Russian citizens of some smartphones, tablets and video game consoles, said the officials.
Such moves would expand the reach of U.S. sanctions beyond financial targets to the deployment of a weapon used only once before — to nearly cripple the Chinese tech giant Huawei.
The weapon, known as the foreign direct product rule, contributed to Huawei suffering its first-ever annual revenue drop, a stunning collapse of nearly 30 percent last year.
The attraction of using the foreign direct product rule derives from the fact that virtually anything electronic these days includes semiconductors, the tiny components on which all modern technology depends, from smartphones to jets to quantum computers — and that there is hardly a semiconductor on the planet that is not made with U.S. tools or designed with U.S. software. And the administration could try to force companies in other countries to stop exporting these types of goods to Russia through this rule.
“This is a slow strangulation by the U.S. government,” Dan Wang, a Shanghai-based technology analyst with research firm Gavekal Dragonomics, said of Huawei. The rule cut the firm’s supply of needed microchips, which were made outside the United States but with U.S. software or tools.
Now officials in Washington say they are working with European and Asian allies to craft a version of the rule that would aim to stop flows of crucial components to industries for which Russian President Vladimir Putin has high ambitions, such as civil aviation, maritime and high technology.
“The power of these export controls is we can degrade and atrophy the capacity of these sectors to become a key source of growth for the Russian economy,” said a senior Biden administration official, who, like others in this report, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
On Sunday, the State Department ordered the departure of all family members of U.S. Embassy personnel serving in Kyiv, citing the “threat of Russian military action.” The evacuation comes as the Biden administration weighs sending thousands of U.S. forces, as well as armaments, to the Baltic states and Poland to reinforce NATO, officials said. The officials stressed that no final decision has been taken on possible troop deployments, which were first reported by the New York Times. The United States is not planning to send any additional troops to Ukraine. There are about 200 military trainers in Ukraine. Most are Florida National Guard personnel.
On Jan. 23, the State Department ordered diplomats' families to depart its embassy in Kyiv, Ukraine, due to the "continued threat of Russian military actions." (Reuters)
The effort to use export controls could face head winds from American and European business interests that fear using export controls could lead to Russian retaliation in other spheres — and eventually cause foreign companies to seek to design U.S. technology out of their products. That’s because the extension of the rule beyond a single company like Huawei to an entire country or entire sectors of a country is unprecedented.
“It’s like a magic power — you can only use it so many times before it starts to degrade,” said Robert D. Atkinson, president of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, a think tank. “Other countries will say, ‘Oh, man, the U.S. has total control over us. We’d better find alternatives.’”
Russia is vulnerable because it doesn’t produce consumer electronics or chips in large quantities, analysts say. In particular, it doesn’t make the highest-end semiconductors needed for advanced computing, an area dominated by Taiwan, South Korea, the United States, Europe and Japan.
Cutting off the country’s chip imports “would invariably hit the Russian leadership’s high-tech ambitions, whether in artificial intelligence or quantum computing,” said Will Hunt, an analyst with Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology.
The administration has not yet decided whether to restrict the export control to strategic sectors or extend it to everyday devices, officials said. Either way, said Paul Triolo, chief of technology policy at the Eurasia Group, “this would be weaponizing the U.S. semiconductor supply chain against an entire country.”
The pairing of financial sanctions with export controls would inflict pain immediately and over time. The impact of financial sanctions, which could apply to Russia’s largest banks as well as to civilian aerospace, maritime or emerging tech firms, would probably be felt first, experts say. Banking sanctions in particular probably would drive up Russian inflation and trigger a devaluation of the ruble, they say. Export controls, on the other hand, build over time as the cumulative effect of companies shutting off sales to Russia begins to hurt industrial production.
“If the objective is to impose severe and overwhelming costs on Russia’s economy, the combination of sanctions on major Russian banks and the export control would go a long way towards that, absolutely,” said Kevin Wolf, a former senior Commerce Department official who once headed the agency that implements export controls.
If the restrictions are applied broadly, they could also drive up prices for consumer electronics in Russia, analysts said.
The administration says it also may hit Russia with an export ban similar to those against Iran, Cuba, Syria and North Korea. Such a ban, experts say, probably would apply to basic electronics, aircraft parts, telecommunications items and software. But the United States exports relatively little in this area to Russia, so the measure would have limited effect unless other countries impose similar bans of their own.
Germany, which is Russia’s largest trading partner in Western Europe and is highly dependent on Russian energy, is in close” discussions with the United States on sanctions, said a German Embassy official, declining to comment further.
Targeted use of the foreign direct product rule could be a blow to Russia’s military, which relies on a type of chip called Elbrus that is designed in Russia but manufactured in Taiwan at a chip foundry called TSMC, according to Kostas Tigkos, an electronics expert at Janes Group, a U.K.-based provider of defense intelligence.
If the United States barred TSMC from supplying those chips to Russia, as it successfully barred TSMC from supplying Huawei, that would have a “devastating effect,” Tigkos said.
In a statement, TSMC said it “complies with all applicable laws and regulations” and that it has a “rigorous export control system in place … to ensure export control restrictions are followed.”
Analysts say that Western multinational firms probably would comply with the export controls. All U.S. chipmakers include clauses in their contracts requiring customers to abide by U.S. export rules. The United States also has a powerful stick to compel compliance: It could place any scofflaw companies on the Commerce Department Entity List, a blacklist of sorts that effectively bars U.S. firms from selling them their technology.
Russian government officials downplayed the potential impact.
The Russian state-owned defense and tech industry conglomerate Rostec said in a statement that while some foreign components are used in civilian products, Russia has begun to make many components on its own. “The possible imposition of additional sanctions will primarily hit the interests of American companies working for export,” Rostec said. “But we have managed and will manage again, albeit not immediately, but very quickly — we have proven this more than once.”
China could also provide an escape valve for Russia, analysts say.
The country is a big supplier of electronics to Russia. In 2020, it accounted for some 70 percent of Russia’s computer and smartphone imports, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Three of the top five smartphone brands in Russia are Chinese, according to market-research firm International Data Corporation.
Liu Pengyu, spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, suggested that Beijing would not look kindly on extraterritorial control by the United States. “China is always opposed to any country’s unilateral sanctions and so-called long-arm jurisdiction on other countries based on domestic law,” he said in a statement.
Chinese manufacturers could choose to continue selling to Russia even if they use U.S. technology in their products, and it would be difficult, for instance, to monitor Chinese smartphone sales to Russia, IDC analyst Simon Baker said.
Experts, however, said there are ways to police noncompliance. The Commerce Department often gets tips from firms about rule-breaking competitors. Its investigators scan shipping data. They also get intelligence shared from other U.S. agencies.
If Chinese firms wound up supplying Russia in violation of the rule, that would leave Washington with a major diplomatic dilemma: whether to sanction them, even if they make ordinary — not military — goods.
After the Trump administration applied the foreign direct product rule to Huawei in August 2020, the company’s smartphone sales plummeted. Earlier in 2020, it led the world in such sales. Today, it’s fallen to 10th place, according to IDC.
The most important goal now is deterrence, officials and analysts said, and that means threatening the most severe sanctions — such as severing the largest Russian banks from the U.S. financial system, said Edward Fishman, adjunct fellow at the Center for a New American Security. Export controls wouldn’t have as immediate an effect, said Fishman, a former State Department official in the Obama administration.
But, he said, they are a good move.
“The United States has no interest in aiding Russia’s technological and industrial capacity,” he said, “so long as Putin is using it to bully neighbors and attack democracy.''
Isabelle Khurshudyan and Mary Ilyushina in Moscow contributed to this report.
If anything I hope India derives the right lessons from these developments . Not only do we need a foundry for manufacturing those SMCs here but a fully indigenous ecosystem on the lines of how we developed the Tejas & the accompanying aerospace ecosystem .
All these warning signs for the past 2 yrs running are amply clear to those who wish to see .
If all those generous PLIs & incentives still aren't good enough to attract potential investors & consequently manufacturing processes it's high time for the GoI to step in as a stakeholder & put it's money where it's mouth is .
It doesn't end there but begins . GoI must prepare a war chest along with a plan for handholding this industry for the next 2-3 decades which in turn would involve sinking in billions of USDs p.a.
I don't really think we've a choice in this matter anymore . @Bali78
All these warning signs for the past 2 yrs running are amply clear to those who wish to see .
If all those generous PLIs & incentives still aren't good enough to attract potential investors & consequently manufacturing processes it's high time for the GoI to step in as a stakeholder & put it's money where it's mouth is .
It doesn't end there but begins . GoI must prepare a war chest along with a plan for handholding this industry for the next 2-3 decades which in turn would involve sinking in billions of USDs p.a.
I don't really think we've a choice in this matter anymore . @Bali78
Even without sanctions , now if Russia doesn't attack after all this Ukraine will do everything to join NATO within few years.Ukraine is financially dangerous for Russia. While they may end up having to deal with an insurgency, the sanctions will definitely be damaging. The US will make it difficult for Russia to sell oil and gas even outside Europe.
Potential sanctions:
What Sanctions Against Russia Could Look Like
Possible penalties from the West if Moscow decides to invade Ukraine
Senators close in on 'mother of all sanctions' bill against Russia
A bipartisan group of senators is within striking distance of a deal that would impose crippling sanctions on Russia.abcnews.go.com
That will mean Joint NATO brigades near Russian heartland. And Russia will then need to maintain the present level of forces constantly. Will bleed a lot of money for Russians.
It seems US wants Russia to invade , no no , not just invade but butcher Ukraine.
I think they will invade, but I think they will stop before the river because it's a defensible position. Not so sure about Odessa though, that place could fall too. I doubt things will go as far as Kiev falling to the Russians.
It's easy enough to threaten Ukraine after that point.
Russians have to act. If Ukraine survives this they will ensure Moldova gets back its Transintria back.
Plus lots of other things which will be a pain in rear for Kremlin.
Russia will not go for a full phased war with Ukraine which will create a financial burden on Russia's financial institutions... Europe still does business with Russia but after a full phased War, there will be a complete shift from the European countries. From India's perspective, I think we should think twice before we speak on Isreal and Russia.
One of the biggest reasons about the silence of Europe about Russian invasion is that nearly all the pipelines to supply natural gas and oil from Russia for Europe pass thru Ukraine. And there is no alternative to them. Ukraine had been threatening to cut off those supplies. Russia has a correct grouse aganst NATO led by USA who have breeched the earlier 1998 agreement by reaching the borders of Russia. One of the main reasons to destabilise Syria was to allow for a pipeline thru Syrian territory to Europe via Turkey from Saudi Arabia and Arabian Peninsula. A pipeline thru Iran was not feasible. The entire oil of Arabs is in control of US companies. They funded the war against Syria. This was the reason Russia joined in support of Syria.
IMHO Russia will not stop of a full Invasion of Ukraine and will give it freedom after installing its own Puppet President. The ocst of war will be offset by the increased use of Ukraine territory for supply of oil and gas to Europe.
IMHO Russia will not stop of a full Invasion of Ukraine and will give it freedom after installing its own Puppet President. The ocst of war will be offset by the increased use of Ukraine territory for supply of oil and gas to Europe.
You think Russians will be able to occupy Kiev ?
Advancing through Ukraine bypassing urban center's will be easy for Russians but occupying Kiev will be difficult.
Our official stance is both sides should talk it out
Albeit Kiev is on the river, so maybe Russians are thinking of taking everything upto the River banks first. But taking Urban centers will take time and resources. They can do it, but very high costs.