Ukraine - Russia Conflict

[Jaymax]

The Russians went old school in Bakhmut. In a battle eerily similar to WW1’s meat grinders, Russians brought in concentrations of artillery that hadn’t been seen in decades and started shelling the hell out of Ukrainian positions.

Ukraine has lost complete units in Bakhmut, as the Russians grind it up in a battle of attrition (finally playing their strengths)

Add to the mix the new passive counter battery system they have put up, along with their relative comfort in ammo levels NATO (let’s be honest here Ukraine is just a mask now) found itself in a corner. They can’t stop they can’t keep it up.

Russia has perfected the art of locating the Ukrainian artillery using a new passive locating system and sending drones to take it out. Meanwhile the overwhelming superior number of guns Russians fielded have taken their toll.

Now as unhappy as they are NATO will have to release tanks to Ukraine. But the leopards are at best an even match to the T-80s and 90s. The American Abrams if they show up will most certainly be reduced capability models. No point in giving Russia (and China) the ability to examine the latest and greatest.

My view is releasing tanks won’t be a silver bullet. Ukraine won’t have the ability to absorb them ASAP. They are used to Soviet gear. Tank tactics can’t be mastered overnight. Add to it the logistical strain of parts, spares etc.

Doesn’t look good for Ukraine right now.

 

[BMD]

 

[Innominate]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1616532586049798148

Gonzo is a pro Russian stooge that has been wrong many times in this war. If 35k Ukraine soldiers have been killed, or anywhere near that number, it wouldn't be taking this long (5-6 months) to take Bakhmut. IF 35k for Ukraine then 50k+ for Russia since it is them that send wave after wave of flesh for the meat grinder called Bakhmut.

 

[BMD]

For the sheeps which cry India is buying russian oil, well guess who the end consumer is , their masters US.

India’s breaking all records for buying Russian oil, but who is the surprise buyer?

Despite sanctions, the US is snapping up refined petroleum products from India made from Russian crude oil

www.telegraphindia.com

View attachment 26103

Like I said in the other thread, the only way to stop private companies buying is to sanction Indian petroleum exports.

And pray, do explain how the Ukrainians will overnight become experts in tactics on this chinese bhel of equipment, leave alone build competence in maintenance and build up spare parts reserves?

Ohh thats never a factor in call of duty eh?

They've been getting trained already.

 

[BMD]

The Russians went old school in Bakhmut. In a battle eerily similar to WW1’s meat grinders, Russians brought in concentrations of artillery that hadn’t been seen in decades and started shelling the hell out of Ukrainian positions.

Ukraine has lost complete units in Bakhmut, as the Russians grind it up in a battle of attrition (finally playing their strengths)

Add to the mix the new passive counter battery system they have put up, along with their relative comfort in ammo levels NATO (let’s be honest here Ukraine is just a mask now) found itself in a corner. They can’t stop they can’t keep it up.

Russia has perfected the art of locating the Ukrainian artillery using a new passive locating system and sending drones to take it out. Meanwhile the overwhelming superior number of guns Russians fielded have taken their toll.

Now as unhappy as they are NATO will have to release tanks to Ukraine. But the leopards are at best an even match to the T-80s and 90s. The American Abrams if they show up will most certainly be reduced capability models. No point in giving Russia (and China) the ability to examine the latest and greatest.

My view is releasing tanks won’t be a silver bullet. Ukraine won’t have the ability to absorb them ASAP. They are used to Soviet gear. Tank tactics can’t be mastered overnight. Add to it the logistical strain of parts, spares etc.

Doesn’t look good for Ukraine right now.

You're in for a surprise in spring.

 

[Jaymax]

You're in for a surprise in spring.

When the snows melt and everything is a mix of mud and soft earth? Ok sure

 

[BMD]

Restocking Western ammunition after arming Ukraine will take years -producer

It will take 10-15 years to refill Western stocks of artillery ammunition depleted to support Ukraine's army as it battles Russia's invasion, according to the owner of major arms manufacturer Czechoslovak Group.

www.reuters.com

West is running out of shells to send to Ukraine

Interesting point to note - initially former Red Countries sent their Soviet era materiel to Ukraine. Once that was exhausted, NATO equipment was being sent. And now we are at a point where NATO equipment is seeing shortfalls.

Russia is drawing on the mountains of shells it built during the cold war and is firing away like there is no tomorrow.

You think the entire collective West can't produce more shells than Russia?

When the snows melt and everything is a mix of mud and soft earth? Ok sure

Got news for you, it's like that even now. I see videos of vehicles struggling in mud in some areas on all over Twitter.

 

[BMD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1617534536719470599

 

[Jaymax]

You think the entire collective West can't produce more shells than Russia?

Got news for you, it's like that even now. I see videos of vehicles struggling in mud in some areas on all over Twitter.

Read the link. EU combined capacity is 300k / year. Ukraine is going burning through ammo like its popcorn. Unless now Reuters is a Russian shill for you.



US is raiding stocks in Korea and Israel. Why would they do that?

 

[Jaymax]

US diverts weapons from South Korea to Ukraine

The Pentagon has asked its forces in South Korea to send equipment to Ukraine as Washington looks to send as much defensive aid as it can in the war against Russia.

www.foxnews.com

@BMD - take a look. Why would the US move stocks from Korea if production capacity was not an issue.

 

[BMD]

Read the link. EU combined capacity is 300k / year. Ukraine is going burning through ammo like its popcorn. Unless now Reuters is a Russian shill for you.

View attachment 26126

US is raiding stocks in Korea and Israel. Why would they do that?

...in peacetime. This is not peacetime and that doesn't include US, Canada, Australia, Japan, ROK, NZ. Ultimately it boils down to money and we can sure as hell build more than Russia if we need to, and without it affecting our budgets anywhere near as much.

 

[Jaymax]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/17/us/politics/ukraine-israel-weapons.html

@BMD - another one. Ammo stored in Israel is getting moved.

 

[BMD]

US diverts weapons from South Korea to Ukraine

The Pentagon has asked its forces in South Korea to send equipment to Ukraine as Washington looks to send as much defensive aid as it can in the war against Russia.

www.foxnews.com

@BMD - take a look. Why would the US move stocks from Korea if production capacity was not an issue.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/17/us/politics/ukraine-israel-weapons.html

@BMD - another one. Ammo stored in Israel is getting moved.

Inertia, logical restructuring to cater for supply and demand.

Army plans ‘dramatic’ ammo production boost as Ukraine drains stocks

But its plan for a ramp up in production hinges on Congress.

www.defensenews.com

Army Secretary Christine Wormuth separately told reporters that the U.S. will go from making 14,000 155mm shells each month to 20,000 by the spring and 40,000 by 2025.

That's per month. Defence budgets have also increased across the EU.

And in the UK.

UK Asks BAE to Ramp Up Artillery Shell Production Amid Ukraine Drawdown

The UK government has asked BAE Systems to increase artillery shell production to replenish dwindling stocks due to its supply to Ukraine.

www.thedefensepost.com

 

[Jaymax]

...in peacetime. This is not peacetime and that doesn't include US, Canada, Australia, Japan, ROK, NZ. Ultimately it boils down to money and we can sure as hell build more than Russia if we need to, and without it affecting our budgets anywhere near as much.

Again read the damn link.

 

[BMD]

View attachment 26127

Again read the damn link.

Just read the original link, that's only the Czech Republic.

Strnad told Reuters his firm was now responsible for about 25-30% of European output of NATO-standard 155mm artillery.

So that's only 1/4 of EU supply. So multiplying by 4, that's enough to fire a shell every minute, just with shells from the EU, not including UK, US etc. or rockets AND it's being ramped up rapidly AND they still have stocks.

And if we did run out, we would just have to give them cruise missiles instead.

 

[BMD]

Russian howitzer gets shot.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1617530895623245825

 

[Jaymax]

Just read the original link, that's only the Czech Republic.



So that's only 1/4 of EU supply. So multiplying by 4, that's enough to fire a shell every minute, just with shells from the EU, not including UK, US etc. or rockets AND it's being ramped up rapidly AND they still have stocks.

And if we did run out, we would just have to give them cruise missiles instead.

So you are saying a private buyer is unable to buy specialized equipment instantly to produce shells that virtually every western govt is looking to buy and yet other players will magically ramp up production?

For the other countries you mentioned Canada (which can potentially make 14000 shells a month) and donated shells it bought from South Korea recently has openly said it can do little more as its under pressure to improve health, housing and child care spending.

Similarly for the other periphery countries. UK donated 16000 shells. Thats 2 days worth at Ukraine's consumption rate. You can indulge in your blind fanboyism all day. It will not change the reality on the ground. Russia has degraded the original soviet supplied Ukraine army. Then it degraded the west supplied army and its now degrading the west supplied army 2.0.

Russia is pulling out its soviet stocks. If you could appreciate the scale of those stocks you will realize where things stand.

And lastly I sincerely hope your cruise missile comment was a joke. They are even more restricted in supply and not everyone can make them.

US analysts are already red flagging US ammo level as critical. Should a new front break out today, US will simply not have enough ammo. Your fantasies are built on WW2 production eras. Thats a total war scenario. Cant happen in this scenario.

 

[RASALGHUL]

Time to unleash zee Leopards, ja!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1617250768540549123

https://twitter.com/x/status/1617250619617644544

Zee Krauts dicked around too long and for that they got outplayed by US.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1617064545788522497

This is going to give Ukraine a capability they haven't had through out the war when it comes to their mechanize brigades... Night fighting capability.

Superior night vison optics, stabilized guns on Leopards, Bradleys and Swede und German IFV's will overwhelm Russsian forces.

Next month will likely about sending F-16's Euros fly and replacing them with F-35's.

Can Someone explain, Why is Germany acting like this?
what does germany want?

 

[BMD]

So you are saying a private buyer is unable to buy specialized equipment instantly to produce shells that virtually every western govt is looking to buy and yet other players will magically ramp up production?

For the other countries you mentioned Canada (which can potentially make 14000 shells a month) and donated shells it bought from South Korea recently has openly said it can do little more as its under pressure to improve health, housing and child care spending.

Similarly for the other periphery countries. UK donated 16000 shells. Thats 2 days worth at Ukraine's consumption rate. You can indulge in your blind fanboyism all day. It will not change the reality on the ground. Russia has degraded the original soviet supplied Ukraine army. Then it degraded the west supplied army and its now degrading the west supplied army 2.0.

Russia is pulling out its soviet stocks. If you could appreciate the scale of those stocks you will realize where things stand.

And lastly I sincerely hope your cruise missile comment was a joke. They are even more restricted in supply and not everyone can make them.

US analysts are already red flagging US ammo level as critical. Should a new front break out today, US will simply not have enough ammo. Your fantasies are built on WW2 production eras. Thats a total war scenario. Cant happen in this scenario.

CSG is a manufacturer not a buyer. You pay money and things get done.

It says, up to 20,000/month in spring. 400,000/year for EU (4 x 25%), plus UK, plus Canada, plus Australia, NZ, Japan, ROK. Shouldn't forget Turkey either. I even hear Pakistan donated shells. It's Russia vs the world, or at least any part of the world that actually matters.

It's near 3 days. We need to supply 2m/year total if that article is even correct, and we will. 40,000 week is 4 every minute without cease. Is that even correct?

Russia has also been using stocks from DPRK and Iran, so it's clearly having problems itself. And unlike Russian manufacturers, we don't have people working 110 hours per week! How big do you think US stocks are relative to Soviet ones? We also have more guided rounds, so we don't need to use 5000 rounds to kill one person.

Nah, we could send Ukraine some of those and do some real damage.

It won't need to. You're fear-mongering. There's no way Russia can produce or acquire more shells than us. And it's already running a huge deficit and that's the real limiting factor.

 

[Jaymax]

CSG is a manufacturer not a buyer. You pay money and things get done.

Do you even read? CSG is looking to buy machines to build ammo. Sigh... this is a waste of time. Lets wait a few months and see who is right.