No. I already told you, we don't do multiparty dialogues. Our stance during the talks were, whatever Russia agrees for, we will go along with it. We were quite literally on the same page over Afghanistan.
Russia drags Indian in CAR as a counterweight to China. That's also how we got into the SCO.
So we were okay with getting out of Afghanistan? Come on buddy.
Primakov doctrine is long over. The Russians no longer have that much bandwidth to manage China.
They don't want you in Afg, or in CARs. The whole area (except for Kazakhstan), as far as Moscow in concerned, has been ceded to China's sphere of influence. As of before the war, they were only okay with economic influence, but in the next few years who knows.
Russia certainly has no military bandwidth to intervene in CSTO conflicts anymore, much less Afghanistan. A treaty ally (Armenia) was attacked unprovoked by a non-member (Azerbaijan) late last year, and Russia had to sit & watch. They cannot even mediate to stop member infighting (Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan conflict).
India is now more or less totally cut off from the region. Who does that leave?
You have to connect the dots.
So? What's that go to do with India? The US announced a US-led trade bloc in a US-led summit... And they dragged India into it. You are arguing my point.
Give me an example of an India-led initiative in the QUAD that included SEA.
Vaccine diplomacy was our idea and we got them to fund it. Which they did.
We did vaccine diplomacy in several parts of the world bilaterally. But in SEA we did it through QUAD. What does that tell you?
We are not neighbours with Ukraine or Poland. Russia's weapons sales to Pakistan is part of their own security needs concerning Tajikistan and certain elements in Iran, Georgia and Azerbaijan where Pakistan has some influence.
Wow. Let me just replace names of the countries and see if you think Russia would agree with it:
India's weapons sales to Ukraine is part of their own security needs concerning Pakistan where US has some influence (would even make sense, US can pull enough strings to make sure we don't end up in a two-front war).
You are pretty much doing a Russian diplomat's job. Not an Indian diplomat's. Your world view is Russo-centric.
Nope. The Americans offered more ToT on F414 to counter France's equivalent offer. Or the initial contract only had 60% ToT.
F414 was already chosen for Tejas Mk-2 over a decade ago and its CDR is certified for that engine alone. There's no way we could have changed the design to accommodate a different engine at this point without incurring a significant delay. Besides, the M88 is not powerful enough for that requirement (even back when Mk-2 was just enlarged LCA, today's MWF version is way heavier). There's no way we could have replaced it with a French offer even if the Americans hadn't agreed for that level of ToT - the French had no proven engine of equivalent thrust to provide (95-100kN).
So no, that wasn't the case.
The purpose of the high level of ToT is merely to entice India to pursue a closer relationship with the US against a common potential enemy - not different to the Soviet line of thinking.
Plus, you are not considering our side of the situation. We don't see any merit in tying up with allies that have no capacity to help us in a hot war due to one reason or the other. The US is capable of pursuing full-blown adversarial relations with China - France/EU may or may not be. Macron & Scholz in fact want amicable relations with China even in the event of a Taiwan invasion.
The situation during the Arihant's time was totally different, we were not signatories to major pacts with America, and we were not part of other international groups.
And why weren't we a signatory to the pacts?
Because our interests were not aligned. We saw Pakistan & China as enemies whereas US saw them both as allies against the USSR. It did not matter that in the long-term US viewed Communist China as an enemy as well. We did not think that since there might be long-term convergence, therefore we must not do anything US did not want us to (like intervening in Bangladesh). That's not how foreign policy is shaped. Our short & medium-term outlook dictated our alliances. Long-term outlook was something to be kept at the back on one's mind, but not something to be acted upon until the time comes.
That is exactly how we act today. And how we are supposed to act. How Russia acts.
But for some reason you want us to be apprehensive of the long-term (which may or may not come to pass), and ignore making moves in the short term (which is happening now) which in turn could prove beneficial in the medium term (which is almost certain to happen).
But they are offering the B-1B now. How many US partners have a supersonic bomber on offer?
How many US partners
need a supersonic bomber?
Because official allies by definition will get access to their services via Mutual Defence anyway.
The Russians are planning on two supercarriers.
To use where?
So there's no drawback with Russia. With others, they can turn against you on a dime.
You are not drawing a line between the USSR of 1971 and Russia of today, that's the problem.
The USSR would have been willing to invade Manchuria if China had intervened in '71 war. And actually capable of annexing the whole region. Remember PRC had no nukes back then.
Today's Russia is a different story - at best, they will supply both sides (us & China) in the event of a war. At worst, they will supply just China. That's if their situation allows any supplies that is. Right now that is not the case.
We can come back to Russia once that long-term comes to the fore (if they survive till then, that is). But it's mindless to accommodate their interests in the short/medium term, where they don't align with ours.
It's not a decade old. It's basically begun only a few years ago.
The program officially began ~15 years ago. Granted it was just a concept back then.
But it's been over 6 years since Zircon's first test and still we got zilch from the Russian side for our program.
So America will offer their tech only if we fight who they think we should fight. Nice argument.
That's a given for anyone. You think Russia will give us GLONASS if we act against them in CARs?
Hence GLONASS. We can fight whoever the heck we want, even America, with it.
So why did we waste millions building NaVIC? Why don't we put GLONASS receivers on our Pinakas instead of NaVIC?
In a few years, the Chinese will accrue enough leverage to get them to turn it off in the case of a war. We are well aware of that eventuality which is why we developed our own system.
NaVIC has also been codified by the US as an Allied navigation system under last year's NDAA. Alongside Galileo & QZSS.
Whoa, whoa. India is buying almost 2m bpd from Russia and exporting only 360k bpd to Europe. India's oil imports from Russia today is nearly 45% of total consumption.
Russia and China are merely scratching each other's backs 'cause of cheap energy. Once China's reliance on fossil fuels decrease, they will quickly turn against Russia.
The official figures are skewed because there is too much rebadging of oil involved when it comes to Russia. This is an example of how that happens:
What it says on the manifest about where it's from/where it's going is not the whole story. We don't sell all the oil directly - there are several EU states that are apprehensive of dealing with India directly because by now everyone knows this is Russian-sourced. We use several proxies (or rather, the EU tells us to use proxies and we oblige cuz it's their money).
The key is to look at India's imports from MidEast. In December 2021 we used to import around 1 mpbd each from KSA & Iraq. In December 2022, we were still importing roughly 800k bpd from Iraq and 700k bpd from KSA. The difference of 400-500k bpd we can say we have substituted with Russian oil because there's a nice discount to be had.
But what's the additional 1.5 mbpd from Russia for? Our domestic needs did not skyrocket out of nowhere nor did our population double overnight.
The oil trading business is highly irregular right now. The bottom line you need to remember is that Russia was never a part of our energy security calculus. We only used to buy Russian oil on the spot market to fill gaps here & there as needed (even US did that). The sudden surge in purchase of Russian oil was due to the initiative of our refineries & traders who saw an opportunity to cash in due to the flexibility the sanctions allowed.
Once that flexibility stops (which will happen once EU has found a reliable supplier of LNG, whether that is Qatar, US or a combination of the two), the sanctions regime will become tighter and no enterprise of ours will touch Russian oil.
Their domestic consumer market alone is bigger than America's. In just a few more years, China will become the sanctions superpower.
So why don't they supply weapons to Russia? If they're not afraid of sanctions?
China's median age is now almost 40. In about a decade's time their consumer base will collapse (aging people don't drive consumption, young people do - and PRC doesn't have enough young people to replace the older generation), and so will their labour pool.
They will grow old before they grow rich. It's China's worst nightmare - and the reason why they're making risky wolf warrior geopolitical moves all of a sudden. They don't have an eternity to wait before they run out of time to be able to do what they want to. Not that different to why Russia decided to invade Ukraine when it did. Longer they wait, worse it gets for them.
This war makes Russia even more vulnerable and much more motivated to arm India against China.
Damn, you are becoming detached from reality my friend.
Okay. So what you're trying to say is if we send Ukraine Milans, the West will then give us SSNs, stealth bombers, nuclear batteries, stealth ISR, satellites etc?
They will give us what we need to secure our interests in the short/medium term. Which are incidentally the kind of things which we cannot make ourselves at a large enough scale because we did not invest in a Private sector MIC and our PSUs suck donkey b@lls.
The rest of the exotic stuff, what we already have is sufficient in the strategic sphere with regard to technology for the medium term.
If you're worried about the long-term, keep in mind that in the long term Chinese R&D capabilities will supersede Russia's (in some aspects they already do). At that point the countries that can help you are in the West, not Russia.
Single-hulled submarines with advanced hull forging & electric drive for example - which we can only possibly acquire from France/US going forward but not from Russia cuz they don't have them.
'Cause they are not enemies today, and by the time they become enemies, these weapons will be obsolete. So it's just business.
Applies perfectly to us vis-a-vis Russia & China as well. Not like a bunch of ATGMs would upset the balance of power in Europe.
They are well within their rights to do all of the above. They are not our servants.
But we are theirs?
As for QUAD, yes, we are also on the same page as Russia is. They don't see it as a military bloc, the same as India. And their claim of QUAD being created to contain China is also the reason we have given to prevent it from turning it into a military bloc. We are literally speaking the same language here. As I said before, it's in India's interest that a Western bloc is not formed in the Indo-Pacific outside traditional American allies, like AUKUS. We want to create our own security bloc in time.
Um, no. The Russians see no practical difference between QUAD & AUKUS - they call both of them Asian NATO.
During his ongoing visit to India, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said in New Delhi that the West, particularly the US, is creating a ‘front’ to contain China.
news.abplive.com
Which is surprising because QUAD is indeed not a military bloc unlike AUKUS. Equating the two even though they are different was the Chinese line. The Russians have adopted the same line.
You must understand that Russia has no independent view on the Pacific. Their view is the same as China's - which means it's not the same as ours.
I don't know if you know this, but Russia openly opposed the very concept of the Indo-Pacific (just like China did). They wanted the Asia-Pacific to be separate from the Indian Ocean. Suits PRC just fine, as they can bully their eastern & western theatres independently without their enemies being able to help each other.
The US adopted the worldview which was more advantageous for us - the PACOM was rephrased as INDOPACOM purely because of India. The US wanted to signal bringing all enemies of China under one roof.
Their space cooperation with China is meant to be in competition with the US, ie, the aforementioned exotic space tech India lacks.
Same same. Which means that if Russia gets into a confrontation with the US & China assures support in exchange for ditching India, the Russians will happily oblige.
There is already precedent for this exact series of events during the Cuban crisis & '62 war. And back then Russia was the big brother & could dictate terms if they wanted to - in the world about to shape up, Russians will be a junior partner to PRC.
I don't see why you think they'll choose us over PRC. The Russians aren't crazy. They value the importance of short & medium terms, they know you can't get to X, Y & Z unless you cover A, B & C first.
Anyway, you can be sure the Russians will arm India over Pak or China in a war.
I wish I had your endless optimism.
Like I said, at best (if they're not desperate enough) they will sell to both sides and profiteer. At worse, they will choose PRC exclusively.