As a Chinese, I had no idea you French and the Russians were such bosom buddies. That the Russians have been one-sidedly throwing themselves at you — now
that's the truth: Napoleon and Alexander I clinking glasses at a cozy Moscow bonfire soirée(Use an entire city as fuel...). The Russian army threw a party in Paris twice (and in Berlin three times, just saying). Then came the two Mistrals, the Storm Shadows, and all those red, white and blue flags in Africa that got a makeover — still horizontal, though.↓
View attachment 52541View attachment 52539
View attachment 52542
View attachment 52543
NOW,
France sold off its African colonies at a tidy price(Forgive my presumption, but I should say: France has made sacrifices for love and justice in Ukraine.), just to trade for a "good seat" between Moscow and Washington.
Also, I really can't find any data showing a collapse in Russian oil production. Maybe my version of Google is different from yours.
My classmate told me he can barely afford to eat in Moscow anymore.
View attachment 52544
Ukrainian strikes are severely disrupting refining operations and are beginning to weigh on crude oil production, but have not yet caused total exports to collapse, as Russia is offsetting this by exporting more unrefined crude oil.
Crude oil production
This is the most recent development. According to the IEA, Russian crude oil production fell in May to around 8.7 million barrels per day, some 5 per cent lower than a year earlier and 10 per cent below Russia’s target for the month. The IEA has cut its forecast for Russian production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day, attributing this revision to repeated strikes against oil infrastructure.
The decline is not solely due to direct damage to oil fields. It is primarily the result of a bottleneck:
refineries are processing less crude;
some terminals and oil pipelines are temporarily disrupted;
storage capacity is filling up;
Transneft is no longer always able to accept all the volumes offered;
producers are therefore forced to reduce output.
In early April, around 20 per cent of Russia’s oil export capacity remained unavailable, having briefly reached nearly 40 per cent at the end of March. Reuters reported at the time a reduction of around one million barrels per day in export capacity and the likely need to partially shut down certain wells.
This is significant, as shutting down or curtailing a field is not always without consequences. Depending on its geology, age and method of operation, an interruption may reduce its future productivity or require costly recommissioning operations.
Refining: this is where the damage is most visible today
Refining is clearly the hardest-hit sector. The strikes forced virtually all major refineries in central Russia to halt or reduce production during the spring.
The Moscow refinery illustrates the extent of the damage: it is expected to remain out of service for at least six months. It processed around 11.6 million tonnes of crude oil per year and produced, amongst other things, 2.9 million tonnes of petrol and 3.2 million tonnes of diesel. This is therefore not simply a fire that can be put out in a matter of days, but the long-term loss of a major industrial facility serving the country’s most populous region.
The national consequences are now tangible:
- petrol and diesel shortages in several regions;
- queues at petrol stations;
- sales restrictions;
- rising prices;
- suspension of petrol and jet fuel exports;
- consideration of a ban on diesel exports;
- discussions on fuel imports, particularly from Kazakhstan.
The Russian government is therefore implicitly acknowledging the seriousness of the situation, as it is considering imports and drawing on reserves to support the domestic market.
Exports: the paradox of rising crude oil exports
At first glance, one might think that the sanctions are failing, given that crude oil exports are rising. In May, exports via Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk rose by 15 per cent, reaching around 2.5 million barrels per day. In June, they could even reach a record high of 2.7 to 2.8 million barrels per day.
But this rise is primarily a consequence of the damage:
the crude oil that Russian refineries can no longer process is being sent to the ports.
Russia is therefore exporting more raw material because it is producing fewer refined fuels. This allows it to temporarily avoid an even sharper decline in production, but it is less favourable economically: petrol, diesel, kerosene and petrochemicals incorporate greater added value than a barrel of crude.
The IEA estimates that in May, Russia’s total exports of crude oil and petroleum products remained at around 7.4 million barrels per day, and were therefore relatively stable. However, their composition has shifted: crude oil exports rose by around 490,000 barrels per day year-on-year to reach 5.2 million, whilst Moscow retained more refined products for its domestic market.
Thus, the total volume exported masks a qualitative deterioration.
Revenue: no collapse yet, but a less favourable structure
Oil export revenues reached around $20.8 billion in May, $710 million less than in April, mainly due to prices, but they remained high.
It would therefore be premature to say that the strikes have already deprived the Kremlin of its oil revenues. International prices, crude oil sales to India and China, and the redeployment of shipments to other ports are still enabling Russia to cushion the blow.
However, several costs are mounting up:
- loss of value added from refining;
- repairs to complex facilities;
- insurance premiums and logistics costs;
- idling of capacity;
- potential fuel imports;
- subsidies designed to cap domestic prices;
- possible reduction in production when ports and refineries are simultaneously overwhelmed or damaged;
- increasing expenditure on air defence around energy facilities.
Strikes against gas facilities are also beginning to have knock-on effects. Following the attack on the Orenburg processing plant, Kazakhstan was forced to reduce oil and condensate production from the Karachaganak field by around 25 per cent, as the associated gas could no longer be processed normally in Russia.
The strategic conclusion
The situation can be summarised in three stages:
Strikes against refineries are sharply reducing fuel production.
Russia is diverting the resulting surplus crude oil to export, which temporarily maintains volumes and revenue.
When terminals, oil pipelines and refineries are struck simultaneously, the system becomes congested and oil production itself must decline.
It is therefore a campaign of gradual strangulation rather than an instantaneous shutdown. Crude oil export statistics may even improve whilst the Russian oil system deteriorates.
Ukraine has not yet dried up Russia’s oil revenue stream, but it is forcing Russia to sell more less-processed crude, to reduce its refining capacity, to ration its domestic market and, now, to begin cutting back on extraction itself.
The decisive factor will be persistence. A refinery can be repaired; if it is struck again before it is back in operation, whilst ports, pumping stations and depots are also under attack, Russia’s ability to compensate will eventually disappear.