Wagner Group Mutiny Against Russia | Mercenaries moving across Lipetsk towards Moscow - Live Updates

What do you think of Modi's thinking on Russia - Ukraine war?
To be Honest, I hope we will never abandon our Quest for "Strategic Autonomy", No matter how much the western press dances upon us......
I really don't want us to become someone like UK, Japan, Australia. Etc.
I hope Modi doesn't get suckered into the wooing by west. We shouldn't distance ourself from Russia....

I can't presume what Modi's thinking, but I think the Indian establishment is both disappointed and pissed at the Russians and French. Both countries were misled to believe there would be no war for some reason. The Russians believed they will not face resistance, and the French believed there won't be a Russian invasion. Otherwise, the Franco-German mediators of the Minsk Protocol would have agreed to sign the deal and avoided the war entirely. Who knows how they got tricked? The Russians too should have handled it bilaterally.

The prosecution of the war must have disappointed them as well, it's taking too long and it's holding up Indian modernisation. The Russians are busy stealing our stuff too. I guess the only advantage we see here is all our stuff's becoming war proven. The cheap oil helps, but that could be temporary.

Strategic autonomy is either gifted by a superior power or earned. The former is used by second and third rate powers, they use their relationship with other first rate powers who have earned strategic autonomy to balance relations. India is in this category. To earn strategic autonomy, it's simple, all you need is a fleet of SSNs that can go undetected under the navy of a first rate power. That's it. Yeah, you need other qualities too, but a capable SSN fleet is number 1 in the list.
 
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It seems it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility that the current Russian campaign becomes a re-run of their WW1 escapade.
 
Damn, I missed it, but I had some sleep.

Rebellious Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Saturday he had taken control of the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don as part of an attempt to oust the military leadership amid what the authorities said was an armed mutiny.

 
Damn, I missed it, but I had some sleep.




Good morning :p
 
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Putin says - " This is a criminal campaign. It is equivalent to armed mutiny. Russia will defend itself and repel this move. We are fighting for the life and security of our citizens."
More like, "We are fighting for the life and security of my backside, which is now on the line."
I'm running low on popcorn. Raj und radio what say you about this mess? :D
 

Oooh, I'd have gone straight in at 'pretty please' if I were him.


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Well we aren't in. Russia was in a position to leverage it's own heft to retain a role for India (if it is as you say and they know they can't trust Chi-Pak) but they didn't. Like I said, it's very possibly due to Moscow deciding that it wasn't worth it, that it needed China's support more badly in the medium-term (by the point of US exit from Afg they would have already been planning for the invasion).

From their perspective, they are perfectly justified in doing so. Their priority is to look after their interests first, not India's.

Question is what should be our priority, looking after ourselves or accommodating Russia?

We are in Afghanistan.

Nope, attacks were on Armenia proper. Not in Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh.

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It was part of the war in the disputed region.

FT playing up the State Dept as usual. The QUAD program was jointly announced at the first summit, but if you look at QUAD itself as US-led then sure.

But the fact is India was the pioneer of vaccine diplomacy - we had been donating vaccines months before the summit, when everyone else was busy hoarding them. The plan to use vaccines for diplomatic leverage was originally ours, which the US adopted through the multilateral platform.

It's being described as "US-led" because its the US that funded it when it comes to SEA.

Zero India-led initiatives via QUAD to date.

The concessions are getting increasingly few & far between.

What you must realize is that there are very hard limits to how much we can support Russia. The Chinese are always capable of taking it much further because they actually share common enemies.

Our multi-alignment can only last as long as Russia doesn't take it too far. And right now they appear to be well on the way to doing exactly that.

The concessions are actually increasing, like Russia making us less dependent on them.

Same goes for AMCA too. The Mk-1 is expected to have a proven 95-100kN engine which again the French don't have. For the Mk-2 we'll be needing a more powerful engine of 110-130kN. Preferably a new-generation design with variable cycles & everything. But if ToT proves sticky, the least we can hope for is more thrust & electrical output than the Mk-1. That would be non-negotiable otherwise whole Mk-2 program will fail.

That again puts GE at a more advantageous position. As the M88 core cannot be scaled to that level, in order match our requirements the French would need to share the absolute latest & greatest they have (FCAS engine), which is less likely to happen - especially because they might also need to get German approval for doing so. Whereas GE can offer tech that would be at least a generations out of date, but still able to meet the thrust requirements (F414 EPE). It would also promote commonality & cost-saving arguments as the same production facilities we build for 414-INS6 can be used for EPE as well.

AMCA gets a new clean-sheet design.

When interests align, everything else falls into place.

That's what's happening now. We didn't sign anything that restricts what we do. We're not an official Ally and never will be.

Yes, but that wasn't the point.

No, and the US is quite realistic about that. There was a point when they were confident they could bring India around, but that period is over. The likes of Kurt Campbell & Jake Sullivan have a very clear-eyed & realistic view of India's aspirations to be independent.

Besides, a Mutual Defence pact is frankly impossible - not unless we are ready to renounce all official claims on occupied territories like PoK & Aksai Chin. That's never gonna happen. Best we can hope for is Ukraine-type support by supplying our weapons needs, and transferring assets like B-1B via lend-lease.

Lol. You should read up a lot more. The US wants India to become an ally, ie, subservient to them.

Nothing 1-2 Russian carriers can do out there against the USN. Or against PLAN for that matter. On the surface, against the USN they'd be a junior partner to PLAN anyway, they don't need to duplicate efforts when China is already on its way to build 6+ carriers. The Russians are better off focusing on the subsurface element where the Chinese lack technological superiority.

That's not how it works. They only need 2 to counter USN's 12.

Only US, China and India have a massive carrier requirement, all others need only 1-3.

And I'm telling you - if indeed it's in Russia's interest to supply us as a counterweight to China, anything tactical we sell to Ukraine simply won't matter because they can't afford to let it get in the way! But of course the Russians will not tell you this, they'd say it's a red line, but up to you how timidly you want to approach the Russian relationship. At some point we have to learn to play hardball if we wish to get what we want.

Turkey supplied UCAVs & munitions to Ukraine, do you see the Russians ending support for their S400 systems? Or cutting relations? Or are they mindful of the fact that propping up Turkey against the West is in their interest and so must continue maintaining relations?

You say the Russians supply us because it's in their interest, but then you act like they're just doing it all as a favour and so can end it anytime they want without any consequences.

Opening up the possibility of supplying weapons to the Ukrainians gives us leverage. Against the West, we can use it to obtain both finances & additional technology transfers to help local industries grow. Against Russia the LEAST we should aim for is to get them to cease any & all supply of weapons & systems to Pakistan (including RD93s) and to get into an agreement that they'll never do so in the future, or at least that they'll only sell items after we approve it. And that if they don't agree to it, we'll supply further weapons to Ukraine.

Once leverage is obtained by the initial sales (MILANs or anything else we have on hand), we can do an assessment of all options and choose accordingly.

You are approaching our foreign policy as though we are still in the 70s or 80s. We have to make moves commensurate with our stature in order to use opportunities as they arise to better our own position! We are now at a much more powerful position vis-a-vis Russia (not only because we are a 3x times bigger economy but also because we now buy about half their oil) than at any point in history.

How does it help us to let the moment pass us by? Unless you think that somehow the Russians will remember how good we were to them and come to our rescue, even against their greater national interest, at some point in the future? I'm sorry but it doesn't work like that.

The gates to all exotic tech will close. Turkey is not the one getting Nerpas. The stuff we need, we cannot develop on our own in the next 30 years. We need them all even if they are leased. This includes SSNs and stealth bombers. If the Chinese come out with a near-space fighter, we will need a small number of PAK DP to compete with. We need to bridge the gap between now and when we also posses these technologies after 2050.

What's our half? The solid motor? I don't see why that should take a decade.

The most important part is the SCRAMJET combustion & the materials needed to make it. We've already tested ~Mach 6 scramjets of our own and as per some, the technology-demonstration component of HSTDV program is now over and development of a tactical solution (an actual HCM) has already begun.

Our half is everything except the scramjet.

Our scramjet is still a TD, it's not yet capable of holding the flame alight enough to be used as a weapon. The Russian scramjet can hold a flame long enough to reach 1000Km at mach 8+.

Brahmos 2 is being designed for peak performance. It is expected to achieve the maximum speed possible, dependent on the airframe design. If the (Indian) airframe can only manage mach 7, then so be it. But if if manages mach 13, then that's what it will do.

DRDOs scramjet has more modest objectives. The TD is just 1T and the upscaled version will have 600Kg thrust.

Like I said, if that were true why would we bother to develop NaVIC, and eventually GINS?

If we have true alignment and see no possibility of divergence, why waste money?

Truth is, we are aligned with Russia on some matters. And with the West on others. Depending on our situation, we increase or decrease our alignment. The Russians do the same.

Problem is, the foreseeable future contains a lot of decreasing due to a variety of factors.

We are renting foreign stuff until we make our own stuff. It's a 20-year effort.

How will we challenge the Russia, US and Europe with Agni V and VI without GPS/GLONASS? In just a few years we will have ICBMs that we cannot use fully without our own system. So we gotta rent.

Naik, who heads the chiefs of staff committee, said, "India should pursue an ICBM programme to acquire ranges of 10,000 km or even more. Breaking out of the regional context is important as the country's sphere of influence grows. We have no territorial designs on any country, but India needs the capability to match its sphere of influence."

Both Agni VI and K-6 are being developed with global range in mind.

We will brave Western sanctions, throttle our own economy, and buy oil from Russia so that we can sell it to Pakistan?

Are you hearing yourself?

Sure. Russia owns a refinery in India. And it's in our interest that Pakistan gets some of its supplies from India.

Refining capacity & consumption are two different metrics. Consumption is driven by demand - refining is a profit-making business that need not necessarily care about domestic demand.

As of numbers, the fact is we essentially added a Iraq/KSA-equivalent supplier out of nowhere, while the reduction from our traditional suppliers only reduced by marginal amounts (~10%). We added about 1 mbpd of import out of nowhere - and that's not because we wanted to rush to Russia's aid, that's purely because of the discount & the lax sanctions regime.

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Once those conditions change (which they will) we will no longer be buying Russian oil. Not just because we'll lose the European customer, but because we'll face secondary sanctions just for buying the oil in the first place. So no Russian oil even for domestic consumption will remain.

At that point you can be assured our oil import map will go back to looking exactly like how it did pre-2022 i.e. with MidEast supplying ~90% of the demand, the US filling the gaps, and the Russians as a non-factor.

Our imports have not changed, our suppliers have changed.

Well Japan isn't looking to change any status quos within the next half-century so it doesn't hurt their plans - they've found a way to live with total economic stagnation. And they're already halfway through their demographic bust, in the next few decades (once the older generations die off) it can only get better for Japan.

As of supplying Russia, I don't buy that they don't need it. They are importing everything they can from whoever is ready to sell (i.e. countries already under sanctions) like Iran & NoKo. Besides, they can never have the scale China has - they just don't have enough working-age people or enough factories. This isn't the USSR of WW2.

Right now they're having to spin up every single factory they have to supply the Ukraine war. If and when they get into a war with all of NATO they are hopelessly outmatched. No choice but to rely on China for supplies.

At that point if China demands they share the technology of the Akula-II, what can the Russians do but oblige? Someone in Moscow will point out that they still have better tech (Yasen) so all's not lost, we can give Akula to them.

Yeah China wants Russia weaker, but more importantly they want as much of the West's resources tied up in Europe as possible so the less capacity they have of intervening in INDOPAC, which is what is really important for PRC. Russia's war is a useful tool of making that happen.

China's HR quality is increasing though.

Russia getting weapons from outside is largely Western narrative. Yeah, maybe some UCAVs from Iran and artillery shells from NoKo, but that's about it.

Russians never planned to fight a war this scale in the first place so their plans for what happens after are sketchy at best.

Russians had no intention of moving anything to India - that was our initiative to localize most of the stuff, and we paid quite the premiums for that. Despite the fact Russia still hadn't delivered on several ToT obligations (like with T-90).

You will have to wait and see for yourself.

Weapons supplied to Pakistan & China are to swat flies? I sure don't recall TTP having much of an armoured force to warrant Kornets.

TTP got a lot of American vehicles.

What difference does it make when they supply weapons before the war starts? Soldiers die all the same.

Hell, having stocks of weapons is what emboldens aggressors to start wars in the first place.

As of history, I keep saying that the alignment of interests change. Just because something was a certain way for ~50 years doesn't mean it will always be the same.

Supplying before war and during war are not the same. They are like two completely different discussions. During war, we have even sunk American and British ships that supplied to Pakistan. Do we do that during peacetime?

What they said is that QUAD is designed to contain China. But they don't acknowledge why even a traditionally non-aligned state like India felt compelled to join. They don't acknowledge that China is the aggressor. They didn't do that even after Galwan.

Because their view on the Pacific is now completely aligned with China's.

The US doesn't politically interfere in the Galwan crisis because we do things BILATERALLY. Why don't you get this? We only do things BILATERALLY. We don't like others meddling in our business.

The US has officially stated that they don't publicly discuss Galwan and the Indo-China border issue specifically due to Indian demands. We told them to shut up about it.

The question is what will Russia do if they are in a direct or indirect war with NATO and China is in a war with India and US is supporting India. Can you count on the Russians to stand shoulder to shoulder with their adversaries in the European theatre (US) in helping India against the only potential ally they have in their own war against NATO?

If you do, I must say your views are extremely unrealistic.

We will fight China and eat popcorn for the rest. In fact, the war with China will give us the excuse to not interfere with NATO vs Russia. Anyway, this scenario is highly unlikely without China and Russia entering a formal alliance. What will really happen is if Russia fights NATO, both China and India will grab popcorn, beer, and sit on lazy chairs together in front of a TV watching the fight.

India will become enemies with Russia only if Russia and China formally ally. Fat chance.

The only scenario where India will side with the West is when the West is being threatened by a Russo-China alliance.

Anyway, in such scenarios, India is important only 20+ years later. Today anything outside India or the IOR will see India only contributing cannon fodder. So it's meaningless.

Regarding China's designs on the Russian far-east, what you need to realize is that when it comes to Russia, the Chinese are in no hurry whatsoever. Yes, they are sitting on a demographic time bomb, but so are the Russians. Russia will run out of young people much much before China does. They aren't even a 1/10th of China's population.

The Chinese don't see any merit in fighting over something they can acquire anyway. With Western sanctions in place, Russia's European core will be busy looking after itself, already China is the only hope for investments in their far-east. Why invade when you're getting almost monopolistic access to the region's markets & resources? They have enough enemies in the Himalayas & the Pacific, they don't need to open another theatre.

Sooner or later, the Chinese can realistically hope for a Alaska purchase-type deal for Russia's far-east at a price Beijing will decide.

That won't happen without a war. They learnt their mistake today after having sold Alaska.

Vis-a-vis China? The only track record they have during any India-China conflict was to encourage both sides to resolve their differences peacefully. And that would be the extent of what we can expect from them in the event of any future conflict as well. ESPECIALLY in any future conflict because the USSR of old was a very different beast compared to modern Russia.

You forget that they supplied weapons in the Galwan phase when many people expected there will be a war.

As I said above, it depends on what you think their interests are.

Turkey did the same and continues to have relations & access to top of the line stuff like S400. Pakistan did the same and continues to have access to oil (they can't afford anything else so there's that).

Like I said, you are approaching this too timidly. Instead you need to make a more realistic assessment of what the Russians' compulsions are.

Russia-India defence relations are set to end without exotic tech in play.

If we give Ukraine weapons, the Russians will sell to Pakistan at the cheapest rates possible. And trust me, Russian stuff today is dirt cheap.

I gave you two.

Just to remind you:

1) Use the offer of sales to get tech transfers & investments from West in items we deem are critical in a war with China. Cuz in case West decides not to support us in a war with PRC, we need to be able to rely on ourselves.

2) Use the threat of further sales to get Russia to either end strategic relations with Pakistan, or at the least only trade in items that we approve of. It's even a realistic demand - Pakistan is a terror-exporting state that caused great harm to Russia in times past, and in case they really need to work with them in Afg, they can get favours done via China. They don't even earn much money selling to them - their only real utility is in being used as a tool to pressurize India with. We are well within our rights to take that away from them.

1 will come only if Russia is an alternate supplier. And whatever is expected to come will come on its own merit, like the recent F414 deal. We need Russia to rely on ourselves. You do realise we have not even begun taking baby steps in indigenisation right? Everything we are working on is still on paper. We are 10 years away, still, for even the most basic stuff like artillery guns and armoured vehicles. We have only seen some success in electronics and missiles and even that's still WIP, meaning 5 years away.

2 Russia is doing very well in controlling Pakistan, as is the US. So it's already happening. Russia will listen to us only if we are still their customers. And that's already coming to an end for non-exotic stuff. Our main relations today is economic, and even you claim that's temporary. So what's left is exotic stuff, which we won't get if we kill Russians.

Only thing unrealistic is to think that Russia will have the wherewithal to help us against China in the event of a war.

As of Western tech, firstly the possibility of tech inputs from France is much higher than US (especially in the strategic sphere) so all of West cannot be seen under the same light. That said, what I spoke about above are tactical stuff and the means of producing them. That's nothing too important that anyone will have much of a problem transferring.

As of exotic stuff - I didn't say that we were assured of getting inputs from West. What I said was that in the long term, the only countries even capable of helping us are in the West and not Russia - because Russia does not have access to a lot of those techs, like an electric drive for nuclear submarines for example.

Even if Russia were to develop such techs going forward, they'd be far more apprehensive of giving it to us because it would still be the latest & greatest they have. Whereas the US/French equivalents by that point would already be one or two generations out of date - so much more likely to be shared.

It's the same as happening with F414 now. Even the latest Russian engines cannot hope to match 414 in terms of reliability, longevity, turn around times, sortie rates, time between failure, time between overhaul etc.

But US/France are comfortable in giving us a lot of that tech because for them, the F414/M88 are already out of date technologies. But for us, they make a world of difference.

Russia has proven its support of India via tech transfers, support in construction of Arihant, Nerpa and many other areas. The West to date is all talk, only France has somewhat stepped in with Scorpene, but everything else is still up in the air.

You are building castles in the air. First the West has to prove that it can even remotely match Russia's already proven track record, then we can talk.

And then the elephant in the room, UNSC vote and sanctions. You haven't given any reason how we can circumvent the UNSC without Russian support. With Obama's speech the other day, the US has officially started the process of creating religious divisions in India. Without Russia, even a single Hindu/Muslim riot will attract sanctions.

Anyway, you can have the last word, I will end the discussion here since you haven't provided any reason to support your view. You wanna overturn India's hard-earned advantage of having become friends with almost every major power, that's never gonna happen. India will never arm Ukraine even during peacetime, never mind during war. So this discussion was moot in the first place. It was still interesting nonetheless.
 
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This is completely false: the M-88 is not an engine but a family of modular engines, designed from the outset to deliver thrust of between 7.5 and 11.5 tonnes from the same core.

It's true that the French only use the 7.5 t version today, but when we were negotiating with the UAE for the sale of 60 Rafales 10 years ago, they asked for 9 t thrust engines. We told them it wasn't necessary, but as they insisted, we developed the 9 t version in just a few months. Since then, they have agreed that 7.5 t thrust is sufficient and have ordered 80 Rafales with 7.5 t engines!

Similarly, the NGF demonstrator will be fitted with an M-88 with 11 t of thrust, because the production engine will not be ready for the demonstrator.

We would therefore have no difficulty in supplying you very quickly with the M-88 at the thrust you require, should you decide in favour of this solution.

Clean-sheet design, so only the hot core is important. And yeah, we know France has it.

Any chatter from your side about MRFA? It's expected to start next month.
 
There, maybe @jetray, @randomradio, @Rajput Lion will finally realise this fact. You only have to look at Donetsk to know that it hasn't been bombed for 8 years.

Prigozhin must have serious protection.

You guys are being led by your noses.

He is mixing facts, half-truths and lies in what he says.

For example, Donetsk saw bombings in civilian areas, but at the same time, Russian positions were hit far more.
 
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This seems to be pre-planned as how else they could they cover Rostov to #Voronezh in same day, that is half distance between Rostov & Moscow.

I think a lot of Russian were looking for a way out of hell, and were happy to jump on the first train passing by.
So Russia is about to collapse? @Rajput Lion
This is an example of what happens when everything is build on lies. The building collapses.
 
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You guys are being led by your noses.

He is mixing facts, half-truths and lies in what he says.

For example, Donetsk saw bombings in civilian areas, but at the same time, Russian positions were hit far more.
OMFG! :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO:
 
And Which one is Camp Sensible? :p :p :unsure::unsure:

There is no Camp Sensible in this war.

Russia-Ukraine started a stupid war. NATO is fanning the flames stupidly. And Prigozhin is playing stupid games with the stupid MoD.

They are all going to win stupid prizes in the end. All of them.
 
Battlefield 6 is going to be epic. I'm sorry, i said that out loud didn't I?