Wagner Group Mutiny Against Russia | Mercenaries moving across Lipetsk towards Moscow - Live Updates
- Thread starter RISING SUN
- Start date
My Point is he doesn't need a Fake coup/mutiny to remove Someone like Gerasimov or Shoigu.
Anyway, Prigozin is a dead man walking......
This Mutiny/Coup attempt tarnishes Russia's Image as a global Power.
The purge may very well be directed at Prigozhin and his supporters, with him biting back.
And Putin isn't a lone king, he definitely has opponents in the Kremlin.
This could even be a purge gone wrong.
Yeah, it's bad for Russia, but it depends on how powerful his opponents are. If they fail, then Putin will just consolidate power even more.
Also, one needs to note that his opponents are likely on the same page as him concerning world events, even Ukraine. So his replacement may not necessarily be good news for foreign opponents.
I'm reducing my reply only to the core topics as it's time we wrap this up and clear the thread - lots of new developments coming that need to be watched.
They want that from everyone. But they've realized they're not going to get it until & unless several things about the current Indian State & its goals undergo drastic change (like I said, it's impractical to implement an Alliance while retaining claims on disputed territories).
Any such change isn't going to happen anytime soon - and in the meantime, they see sufficient convergence in goals when it comes to the main topic of the day: China. So for now that is enough.
The next 'step' in US policy toward India may only really gain ground after the Chinese threat dissipates one way or the other. Depending on when that might happen, they'd be dealing with a very different India than what we have now.
Turkey doesn't need Nerpas - their primary enemies (Greece & Armenia) don't have any fleets that need SSNs to handle. Besides, the objective of the Russian leases (both Charlie & Akula) was never to add to our capabilities, it was primarily to give us operating experience with the VM-4 and OK-650B PWRs, which we developed into CLWR-B1 and B2 models respectively for use in our own program. So unless the Turks have an intention to develop an indigenous N-sub program, there's no point in giving them Nerpa.
Same is true for what's planned for Australia's leases.
What we need is driven purely by our goals, not because China also has it. We needed SSBNs because our adversaries had nukes and we needed a second-strike option. We need SSNs primarily so we protect our SSBNs and ensure that deterrence stays up. These are things you really cannot depend on others for unless you were in a proper alliance framework (which we didn't have with Russia). So we got these done independently via tech transfer.
Rest of the stuff, we need to be extremely mindful of what we spend on. Like I said in a previous conversion, we need to remember that end of the day, China is an industrialized country and we are not. If we try to build anything & everything that China does, we will 100% bankrupt ourselves. This is where being in a partnership/pseudo-alliance helps...you need not develop everything you need in-house.
To compete with Chinese advancements in aero engine tech, we would have either had to spends decades more time & billions of more dollars doing R&D on our own, or we leverage our position to acquire tech that allows us to leapfrog the Chinese instead. That's what we're doing.
And then there are stuff you simply have to depend upon sales and/or lend-leasing. Certain programs (like say, stealth bombers) simply make no economic sense to either develop ourselves or seek tech transfer, due to limited need of only 1-2 squadrons. They're another way to bankrupt oneself.
In case such transfer arrangements cannot be made, we will need to look at asymmetric capabilities to counter them.
I intend to do just that - it's getting interesting in Russia.
You cannot equate the transfer of weapons to their actual use.
Anyway, it proves my point. Nobody can sell anyone weapons without expecting that they will be used someday.
An alliance need not necessarily be announced beforehand. NATO had not signed any document saying they will rush weapons, aid, intelligence & targeting data to Ukraine in the event of a Russian invasion. But they're doing it anyway. Even in the future, there's nothing stopping NATO from cooking up some strawman (like that news of a Russian missile landing in Poland which turned out to be Ukrainian) to use as casus belli for Article 5.
Alliance is merely a means of deterrence. But you don't need that if you INTEND for a war to start in the first place, as only then you get to change status quos.
There's nothing major (planes, tanks, ships) the Pakistanis can afford off the shelf, no matter how dirt cheap. Things like F-16 and J-10 were only possible because the seller country financed those deals themselves. Russia is too poor to do that. If you recall they were ready to sell MiG-35, Mi-28 and T-90 to Pak at one point - they only backed out once they realized they'd have to supply not just the weapons, but a loan to buy them with as well. They ended up selling only the stuff Pak was ready to finance themselves (Mi-17s, Mi-35s, ATGMs) or those where China was financing (RD93s for JF-17s).
This "will supply weapons to Pak" card, the Russians already played it long back. We are yet to make them see the consequences of that.
Besides, such sales will get them nowhere. They'd have to realize that it's foolish to replace the Indian customer with Pakistan. Pak can't finance the refurbishment of their shipyards or contribute to building up their SSN fleet (which is what we did). Better to accommodate the modest Indian request (no weapons or engines to Pak) instead.
In the end it comes down to whether you think the Russians are a rational or irrational actor.
Most of our legacy stuff is localized. As of the things that are still mid-delivery like S400 they're not coming in the medium term anyway cuz of the Russians' own issues. By the time they build their industry back up, we'd be testing our own ERADS with domestic AESA, no need to depend upon S400 with its inferior PESA radars anymore.
As of the modern tactical stuff that we are indigenizing (likes tanks, IFVs, new-gen surface combatants, jets), there is no Russian input in them whatsoever. Any foreign input that is present is from West or Israel.
Russia isn't listening to us even when we are their customers.
I don't dispute that Russia's vote is important for us - I'm saying that we won't be getting their vote anymore, if that means the Russians having to defy China's position to do so.
It's the traditional good cop-bad cop routine. Biden shows the carrot, Obama the stick. That's nothing new.
As of sanctions, like I said, if the West decides to sanction India, the UNSC is not going to matter. Even if Russia votes in our favour, it'll just be spun as "the autocrats are helping each other so we must pursue sanctions bilaterally", which they will. The OIC will be with them. So will China.
The rest of the UN is of no consequence.
In such an eventuality, we have many cards to play though. Firstly our internal economy will remain mostly unaffected thanks to stuff like UPI & India Stack. We are food-surplus. We have lots of coal, hydro & tremendous solar potential for energy. We're not dependent on commodity exports. We'll be too big of a market to ignore for long - there will be fissures in the West (France for example will not toe the line for long, just as in the past). Assuming this happens over the long term, if in the intervening period the Chinese market busts or is destroyed (due to war, financial collapse or anything), we'll be the only big country that has the potential to drive global growth. None of our neighbours can really use the sanctions to upset any major status quo (i.e. invasion of heartland) cuz we'll still have nukes & the means of delivering them. It's not as easy to pursue sanctions as you might think.
Not to mention, sanctions are meant to extract a particular outcome. Not just to spite someone. In the past, one motivation might be to get India to open up market access for multinationals. But that's happening anyway and upsetting the course of events now will only lead to a rollback which nobody in the West wants.
Same. Nice discussion, touched upon so many subjects.
They want that from everyone. But they've realized they're not going to get it until & unless several things about the current Indian State & its goals undergo drastic change (like I said, it's impractical to implement an Alliance while retaining claims on disputed territories).
Any such change isn't going to happen anytime soon - and in the meantime, they see sufficient convergence in goals when it comes to the main topic of the day: China. So for now that is enough.
The next 'step' in US policy toward India may only really gain ground after the Chinese threat dissipates one way or the other. Depending on when that might happen, they'd be dealing with a very different India than what we have now.
Turkey doesn't need Nerpas - their primary enemies (Greece & Armenia) don't have any fleets that need SSNs to handle. Besides, the objective of the Russian leases (both Charlie & Akula) was never to add to our capabilities, it was primarily to give us operating experience with the VM-4 and OK-650B PWRs, which we developed into CLWR-B1 and B2 models respectively for use in our own program. So unless the Turks have an intention to develop an indigenous N-sub program, there's no point in giving them Nerpa.
Same is true for what's planned for Australia's leases.
What we need is driven purely by our goals, not because China also has it. We needed SSBNs because our adversaries had nukes and we needed a second-strike option. We need SSNs primarily so we protect our SSBNs and ensure that deterrence stays up. These are things you really cannot depend on others for unless you were in a proper alliance framework (which we didn't have with Russia). So we got these done independently via tech transfer.
Rest of the stuff, we need to be extremely mindful of what we spend on. Like I said in a previous conversion, we need to remember that end of the day, China is an industrialized country and we are not. If we try to build anything & everything that China does, we will 100% bankrupt ourselves. This is where being in a partnership/pseudo-alliance helps...you need not develop everything you need in-house.
To compete with Chinese advancements in aero engine tech, we would have either had to spends decades more time & billions of more dollars doing R&D on our own, or we leverage our position to acquire tech that allows us to leapfrog the Chinese instead. That's what we're doing.
And then there are stuff you simply have to depend upon sales and/or lend-leasing. Certain programs (like say, stealth bombers) simply make no economic sense to either develop ourselves or seek tech transfer, due to limited need of only 1-2 squadrons. They're another way to bankrupt oneself.
In case such transfer arrangements cannot be made, we will need to look at asymmetric capabilities to counter them.
I intend to do just that - it's getting interesting in Russia.
You cannot equate the transfer of weapons to their actual use.
Anyway, it proves my point. Nobody can sell anyone weapons without expecting that they will be used someday.
An alliance need not necessarily be announced beforehand. NATO had not signed any document saying they will rush weapons, aid, intelligence & targeting data to Ukraine in the event of a Russian invasion. But they're doing it anyway. Even in the future, there's nothing stopping NATO from cooking up some strawman (like that news of a Russian missile landing in Poland which turned out to be Ukrainian) to use as casus belli for Article 5.
Alliance is merely a means of deterrence. But you don't need that if you INTEND for a war to start in the first place, as only then you get to change status quos.
There's nothing major (planes, tanks, ships) the Pakistanis can afford off the shelf, no matter how dirt cheap. Things like F-16 and J-10 were only possible because the seller country financed those deals themselves. Russia is too poor to do that. If you recall they were ready to sell MiG-35, Mi-28 and T-90 to Pak at one point - they only backed out once they realized they'd have to supply not just the weapons, but a loan to buy them with as well. They ended up selling only the stuff Pak was ready to finance themselves (Mi-17s, Mi-35s, ATGMs) or those where China was financing (RD93s for JF-17s).
This "will supply weapons to Pak" card, the Russians already played it long back. We are yet to make them see the consequences of that.
Besides, such sales will get them nowhere. They'd have to realize that it's foolish to replace the Indian customer with Pakistan. Pak can't finance the refurbishment of their shipyards or contribute to building up their SSN fleet (which is what we did). Better to accommodate the modest Indian request (no weapons or engines to Pak) instead.
In the end it comes down to whether you think the Russians are a rational or irrational actor.
Most of our legacy stuff is localized. As of the things that are still mid-delivery like S400 they're not coming in the medium term anyway cuz of the Russians' own issues. By the time they build their industry back up, we'd be testing our own ERADS with domestic AESA, no need to depend upon S400 with its inferior PESA radars anymore.
As of the modern tactical stuff that we are indigenizing (likes tanks, IFVs, new-gen surface combatants, jets), there is no Russian input in them whatsoever. Any foreign input that is present is from West or Israel.
Russia isn't listening to us even when we are their customers.
I don't dispute that Russia's vote is important for us - I'm saying that we won't be getting their vote anymore, if that means the Russians having to defy China's position to do so.
It's the traditional good cop-bad cop routine. Biden shows the carrot, Obama the stick. That's nothing new.
As of sanctions, like I said, if the West decides to sanction India, the UNSC is not going to matter. Even if Russia votes in our favour, it'll just be spun as "the autocrats are helping each other so we must pursue sanctions bilaterally", which they will. The OIC will be with them. So will China.
The rest of the UN is of no consequence.
In such an eventuality, we have many cards to play though. Firstly our internal economy will remain mostly unaffected thanks to stuff like UPI & India Stack. We are food-surplus. We have lots of coal, hydro & tremendous solar potential for energy. We're not dependent on commodity exports. We'll be too big of a market to ignore for long - there will be fissures in the West (France for example will not toe the line for long, just as in the past). Assuming this happens over the long term, if in the intervening period the Chinese market busts or is destroyed (due to war, financial collapse or anything), we'll be the only big country that has the potential to drive global growth. None of our neighbours can really use the sanctions to upset any major status quo (i.e. invasion of heartland) cuz we'll still have nukes & the means of delivering them. It's not as easy to pursue sanctions as you might think.
Not to mention, sanctions are meant to extract a particular outcome. Not just to spite someone. In the past, one motivation might be to get India to open up market access for multinationals. But that's happening anyway and upsetting the course of events now will only lead to a rollback which nobody in the West wants.
Same. Nice discussion, touched upon so many subjects.
Okay, things are back to normal now: 
More seriously though, for those who think this is a 4-D chess move and not just a coup attempt:
Putin took position against Prigozhin.
The reply from Wagner is "wrong choice, too bad for him, we will soon have a new president".
I think it's pretty clear now that this is the real deal.
More seriously though, for those who think this is a 4-D chess move and not just a coup attempt:
Putin took position against Prigozhin.
The reply from Wagner is "wrong choice, too bad for him, we will soon have a new president".
I think it's pretty clear now that this is the real deal.
Russia remains deeply divided, but the system gives the illusion that all is still well. For years, Putin has been trying to maintain unity because the division is real, even through the name of his party "United Russia". The opposition exists and it is only the system that gives the impression that it is insignificant or even non-existent, that Putin is a god worshipped by all, that everyone thinks the same.
Let's not forget that Russia is a country that is much more like an empire than a country, and as with an empire, strong central power helps to maintain overall coherence. Fear pushes people to side with the central power, giving the illusion that everyone is on the same wavelength, but in this kind of system, as soon as the central power weakens, division will appear in all its guises.
The war in Ukraine was the trigger, but the trend had already begun, and the end of the Putin system was an inexorable sign of major change in Russia in the near future, which would never have been a simple succession.
The Russian army has taken a real beating in this conflict, and it doesn't matter that today we see the Russians palavering over the destruction of Western armour in the belief that they are winning a war against Nato, they have not succeeded in what they set out to do and now they have to save their honour. The whole army is mobilised on Ukraine and Wagner knows it well, he knows that inside Russia, there must be a great military desert. I'm not saying that there's nothing there, but the effort (material, command, logistical, human) on Ukraine means that the Russian army is incapable of organising any real resistance. It would be a bit like an unexpected 2nd front on a country concentrating all its resources on the main front. The incursions of Russian fighters into Russia from Ukraine have already shown that the Russian army is finding it extremely difficult to adapt, as it had neither the forces nor the command to deal with them. The impression we get is that as soon as there are no plans, or any plans at all, the Russian army is adrift and doesn't know what to do, how to manage the units left without orders, without leaders, without instructions.
We shouldn't consider Wagner's strength as 'weak' to carry out his coup d'état, it's sufficient for the context. I remain convinced that on the Ukrainian side, we will see a collapse of the front and a real rout of the Russian army. Once again, all we need is a trigger that will create panic, confusion and disorganisation (largely helped by what's happening in Russia) and that will have a snowball effect. This war will end with the end of the Putin system. Those in Russia (now Wagner) who want to replace him don't give a damn about a crushing military defeat in Ukraine - on the contrary, it will help them seize power. Then they will ideologically exploit the return to a great Russia that needs to be rebuilt and its image restored.
As far as Chechnya is concerned, it is not impossible that it could become independent in exchange for a helping hand from Wagner. The defence of Russia is to calm the crowd and recruit supporters who dream of doing things differently.
Let's not forget that Russia is a country that is much more like an empire than a country, and as with an empire, strong central power helps to maintain overall coherence. Fear pushes people to side with the central power, giving the illusion that everyone is on the same wavelength, but in this kind of system, as soon as the central power weakens, division will appear in all its guises.
The war in Ukraine was the trigger, but the trend had already begun, and the end of the Putin system was an inexorable sign of major change in Russia in the near future, which would never have been a simple succession.
The Russian army has taken a real beating in this conflict, and it doesn't matter that today we see the Russians palavering over the destruction of Western armour in the belief that they are winning a war against Nato, they have not succeeded in what they set out to do and now they have to save their honour. The whole army is mobilised on Ukraine and Wagner knows it well, he knows that inside Russia, there must be a great military desert. I'm not saying that there's nothing there, but the effort (material, command, logistical, human) on Ukraine means that the Russian army is incapable of organising any real resistance. It would be a bit like an unexpected 2nd front on a country concentrating all its resources on the main front. The incursions of Russian fighters into Russia from Ukraine have already shown that the Russian army is finding it extremely difficult to adapt, as it had neither the forces nor the command to deal with them. The impression we get is that as soon as there are no plans, or any plans at all, the Russian army is adrift and doesn't know what to do, how to manage the units left without orders, without leaders, without instructions.
We shouldn't consider Wagner's strength as 'weak' to carry out his coup d'état, it's sufficient for the context. I remain convinced that on the Ukrainian side, we will see a collapse of the front and a real rout of the Russian army. Once again, all we need is a trigger that will create panic, confusion and disorganisation (largely helped by what's happening in Russia) and that will have a snowball effect. This war will end with the end of the Putin system. Those in Russia (now Wagner) who want to replace him don't give a damn about a crushing military defeat in Ukraine - on the contrary, it will help them seize power. Then they will ideologically exploit the return to a great Russia that needs to be rebuilt and its image restored.
As far as Chechnya is concerned, it is not impossible that it could become independent in exchange for a helping hand from Wagner. The defence of Russia is to calm the crowd and recruit supporters who dream of doing things differently.
Radio silence on the ongoing hecatomb of observation satellites
The solar storms that have been raging since the beginning of the year are causing numerous losses of image intelligence satellites. For the moment, their operators are keeping quiet about these massive losses of capacity.
The solar storms that have been raging since the beginning of the year are causing numerous losses of image intelligence satellites. For the moment, their operators are keeping quiet about these massive losses of capacity.
I don't see any reason why anyone in the Kremlin would think it's justified to stage a coup (and all the loss of morale that brings for Russians troops seeing Russians kill each other) just so that they can purge some people Putin doesn't like anymore.
They could have done that anyway - Putin could have just straight up fired them, scapegoating them for the losses. If not one of those "he fell out of his bedroom window" cases that popped up a lot last year. Not like anyone would ask questions.
It makes no sense for Putin to instigate any of this. Or at least the risk-reward ratio makes no sense. Until something dramatic happens, I don't see any reason why this can't be seen as legitimate.
The Russians have been taking simply too many causalities. Even with the most conservative estimates (as per the Russians' own sources), they've had more causalities in 1 year of the Ukraine war than they did in 10 years of the Soviet-Afghan war!
Their supply chains, manpower, training, command-&-control, everything was at best patchy and ad-hoc. The so-called "reforms" of the Russian military in the last 2 decades were ultimately hollow and couldn't deliver a modern war machine. They were simply not prepared for a war this scale - like I said, everything after the failed Kiev airborne raid was simply the Russian Govt moving on autopilot.
There's more than enough reasons here to warrant a rebellion/coup attempt. It's another matter entirely if it will be successful or not though - and what kind of a Russia could emerge out the other side.
+++
What's for sure however is that the Ukrainians got themselves some much-needed breathing room. Their offensive wasn't going very well and they need time to hang back, resupply and re-assess their tactics. Well now they got exactly that. When they begin Round 2 of the offensive, it's very likely they'll be fighting a much more demoralized Russian force.
They could have done that anyway - Putin could have just straight up fired them, scapegoating them for the losses. If not one of those "he fell out of his bedroom window" cases that popped up a lot last year. Not like anyone would ask questions.
It makes no sense for Putin to instigate any of this. Or at least the risk-reward ratio makes no sense. Until something dramatic happens, I don't see any reason why this can't be seen as legitimate.
The Russians have been taking simply too many causalities. Even with the most conservative estimates (as per the Russians' own sources), they've had more causalities in 1 year of the Ukraine war than they did in 10 years of the Soviet-Afghan war!
Their supply chains, manpower, training, command-&-control, everything was at best patchy and ad-hoc. The so-called "reforms" of the Russian military in the last 2 decades were ultimately hollow and couldn't deliver a modern war machine. They were simply not prepared for a war this scale - like I said, everything after the failed Kiev airborne raid was simply the Russian Govt moving on autopilot.
There's more than enough reasons here to warrant a rebellion/coup attempt. It's another matter entirely if it will be successful or not though - and what kind of a Russia could emerge out the other side.
+++
What's for sure however is that the Ukrainians got themselves some much-needed breathing room. Their offensive wasn't going very well and they need time to hang back, resupply and re-assess their tactics. Well now they got exactly that. When they begin Round 2 of the offensive, it's very likely they'll be fighting a much more demoralized Russian force.
I hope putin ties the hands of head of Wagner to two separate batlle tanks and have them pull the *censored* apart limb to limb.
Not if teenage chinese girls are involved I guess, for him.
I HOPE THIS ENDS THE RECENT FASCINATION WITH PRIVATE ARMIES. THEY ARE TRASH, CAN NEVER PLAY THE ROLE OF A TRUE STAtE INSTITUTION.
Not if teenage chinese girls are involved I guess, for him.
Meanwhile Chechen Ruler Kadyrov be like......
I HOPE THIS ENDS THE RECENT FASCINATION WITH PRIVATE ARMIES. THEY ARE TRASH, CAN NEVER PLAY THE ROLE OF A TRUE STAtE INSTITUTION.
Exactly. Putin isn't some all-controlling immortal dictator. He has opponents.
Not sure how well that will work out without commandeering some fighter jets and helicopters along the way.
Kinda like the plot from The Jester. Walks to the king's castle, and people join along the way to bring it down.
The Jester (novel) - Wikipedia
Ambition always brings downfall. Prigozhin had slowly become a threat for Russia. Now he will go down.I'm running low on popcorn. Raj und radio what say you about this mess?
Nope.
Wagner don't have air power. They are going to get blown to smithereens by RuAF. However, this whole situation is embarrassing for Russia and Putin, lol.