Pakistan AirForce : Updates & Discussions

[_Anonymous_]

The exact specs of the Pakistani HQ-19 are yet to be revealed. You can expect a lot of fud around it in the days to come.
If the system can intercept IRBM-class targets, I'd imagine any sale would be restricted under MTCR. Maybe this is an export version with downgraded capabilities?

It just struck me the Chinese must be on the horns of a dilemma. Pass on the best weapons in their arsenal to India be it the HQ-19 or the J-35 & they risk a few things namely -

1.) risk being exposed once again for supplying junk but get an insight into how India'd prosecute its wars against China

2.) assuming they do get the better of India , that'd prompt India to go back to the drawing board & modenize aggressively which you don't want if you intend to go up against India later this decade

3.) then there's this obvious risk of avoiding the prying eyes of the US for let's face it this is Paxtan we're talking about where everything is for sale & everyone has a price.

 

[Hydra]

The exact specs of the Pakistani HQ-19 are yet to be revealed. You can expect a lot of fud around it in the days to come.
If the system can intercept IRBM-class targets, I'd imagine any sale would be restricted under MTCR. Maybe this is an export version with downgraded capabilities?

Its up to the exporter to follow MTCR restrictions or not.

 

[South block]

The exact specs of the Pakistani HQ-19 are yet to be revealed. You can expect a lot of fud around it in the days to come.
If the system can intercept IRBM-class targets, I'd imagine any sale would be restricted under MTCR. Maybe this is an export version with downgraded capabilities?

HQ-9 was hyped the same.... Doesn't turned out good for Pakistani.... Indian SRBM & IRBM are not the same what countries like Iran & Pakistani uses. They are much more sophisticated & have better countermeasure to avoid being intercepted by such systems..... HQ-19 ain't intercepting Agni-1P.

 

[Speedster1]

It just struck me the Chinese must be on the horns of a dilemma. Pass on the best weapons in their arsenal to India be it the HQ-19 or the J-35 & they risk a few things namely

1.) risk being exposed once again for supplying junk but get an insight into how India'd prosecute its wars against China

Strangely, the Pakistanis had showed no interest in BMD till date. They apparently thought BMD systems are easily saturated. I think it's China upping the ante vs India with this deal. So they must thought through all the risks you mention and decided it was worth it.

HQ-19 is a THAAD class, high-end system that will likely feed into China's own BMD network. That complicates things for us.

HQ-19 made its debut at Zhuhai just last year so it's a brand new system. We'll have to see how it stacks up in real world conditions.

2.) assuming they do get the better of India , that'd prompt India to go back to the drawing board & modenize aggressively which you don't want if you intend to go up against India later this decade

HQ-19 will probably struggle against HCM and HGVs. But it's probably time for India to fit RF/IR decoys (like Russia's Iskander) and/or anti radiation RVs to our BMs. We'll need to build a lot more BMs now for redundancy.

3.) then there's this obvious risk of avoiding the prying eyes of the US for let's face it this is Paxtan we're talking about where everything is for sale & everyone has a price.

Judging from the number of top military officers who've vanished overnight in China off late, the Americans probably have all the data they could've asked for.

Chinese Scientist Defects to U.S. Carrying Hypersonic Weapons Secrets

Chinese Scientist Defects to U.S. Carrying Hypersonic Weapons Secrets

www.defensemirror.com

 

[Speedster1]

HQ-9 was hyped the same.... Doesn't turned out good for Pakistani.... Indian SRBM & IRBM are not the same what countries like Iran & Pakistani uses. They are much more sophisticated & have better countermeasure to avoid being intercepted by such systems..... HQ-19 ain't intercepting Agni-1P.

A lot of the specs have not been revealed. We'll probably get more info by the next Zhuhai air show.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Strangely, the Pakistanis had showed no interest in BMD till date. They apparently thought BMD systems are easily saturated. I think it's China upping the ante vs India with this deal. So they must thought through all the risks you mention and decided it was worth it.

BMD are crown jewels . Nobody's going to give them to you . You either develop them or pay good money to get a down graded model.Paxtan has neither the industrial know-how nor the base for it & certainly no money to pay for it either.

We ought to up the ante too. Inform the Chinese they go ahead with this sale , we reciprocate in Taiwan. Else be prepared for the slant eyes to keep upping the ante from now to 2030.

HQ-19 is a THAAD class, high-end system that will likely feed into China's own BMD network. That complicates things for us.

We've still no confirmation from the Chinese. It's only the Paxtanis who're yapping. That doesn't mean it isn't happening. Just that we've no confirmation from the Chinese. Could be they're testing the waters vis a vis India by getting the Paxtanis to comment.

HQ-19 made its debut at Zhuhai just last year so it's a brand new system. We'll have to see how it stacks up in real world conditions.

They'd be getting a downgraded model with Chinese operators under their protection.

HQ-19 will probably struggle against HCM and HGVs. But it's probably time for India to fit RF/IR decoys (like Russia's Iskander) and/or anti radiation RVs to our BMs. We'll need to build a lot more BMs now for redundancy.

We aren't going to deploy the HCM & HGVs before 2032 at least. Lots of testing pending. Then our laborious certification & excruciatingly painful procurement process will kick in .

We need to build everything in the tens of thousands from CMs to BMs to Drones to LMs to Rockets - Guided & Unguided to TBMs to ABM to SAMs to MANPADS - shoulder & tri pod mounted & so on .

Wrote about it 3 years ago then followed up by creating a thread on war gaming between India & China.

Judging from the number of top military officers who've vanished overnight in China off late, the Americans probably have all the data they could've asked for.

Chinese Scientist Defects to U.S. Carrying Hypersonic Weapons Secrets

Chinese Scientist Defects to U.S. Carrying Hypersonic Weapons Secrets

www.defensemirror.com

Lot of purges happening too ostensibly for corruption.

 

[Speedster1]

BMD are crown jewels . Nobody's going to give them to you . You either develop them or pay good money to get a down graded model.Paxtan has neither the industrial know-how nor the base for it & certainly no money to pay for it either.

We ought to up the ante too. Inform the Chinese they go ahead with this sale , we reciprocate in Taiwan. Else be prepared for the slant eyes to keep upping the ante from now to 2030.


We've still no confirmation from the Chinese. It's only the Paxtanis who're yapping. That doesn't mean it isn't happening. Just that we've no confirmation from the Chinese. Could be they're testing the waters vis a vis India by getting the Paxtanis to comment.

They'd be getting a downgraded model with Chinese operators under their protection.


We aren't going to deploy the HCM & HGVs before 2032 at least. Lots of testing pending. Then our laborious certification & excruciatingly painful procurement process will kick in .

We need to build everything in the tens of thousands from CMs to BMs to Drones to LMs to Rockets - Guided & Unguided to TBMs to ABM to SAMs to MANPADS - shoulder & tri pod mounted & so on .

Wrote about it 3 years ago then followed up by creating a thread on war gaming between India & China.

Lot of purges happening too ostensibly for corruption.

In my view, we should deepen intel co-op with Taiwan as they probably have the low-down (test data) on Chinese missile tests via Pave Paws radars + ELINT/SIGINT. Perhaps it's time to open an embassy (+RAW station) in Taipei. What better way to stick it to China?

 

[_Anonymous_]

In my view, we should deepen intel co-op with Taiwan as they probably have the low-down (test data) on Chinese missile tests via Pave Paws radars + ELINT/SIGINT.

It's already happening I guess though the level of intelligence sharing is unknown. Another problem is in both Taiwan & China it's impossible to tell who's loyalties lie where ?

The Taiwan establishment has been deeply penetrated by the Chinese establishment & vice versa. This gives rise to a phenomenon of double agents.

You really can't tell whether the information you're receiving is genuine or planted.

Moreover Taiwan is in the pocket of the US. They will share with us information which has been cleared by the US.

Let's also not forget that up until the Biden era which is recent the objective was to inveigle India into a NATO style alliance & do to us what the west did to Ukraine vis a vis Russia.

Taiwan was very much part of the gameplan since a war with India would degrade Chinese war fighting machinery to the extent that China wouldn't be able to move against Taiwan for at least a decade if not more buying time for Taiwan & its allies to build up their defence & offensive power.

Perhaps it's time to open an embassy (+RAW station) in Taipei. What better way to stick it to China?

We do that & that's a declaration of war . Even the US hasn't gone that far. You can be sure if the US makes such a move they're crossing several red lines.

The former would do it only if they want to take on China which doesn't seem to be the case .

Another indication I've read the Chinese will launch their invasion is they resume testing of nukes , signalling their intention & strength of arms to the US .

That in turn will set of a chain reaction as every nation with declared nukes will resume testing.

We already have a trade mission in Taipei much like the US & many other nations essentially from the west. That's short hand for a full fledged embassy for it performs all the functions of a full fledged embassy.

 

[Jaymax]

Another indication I've read the Chinese will launch their invasion is they resume testing of nukes , signalling their intention & strength of arms to the US .

The Chinese are now struggling with the MAD paradox. Testing nukes tends to push desperate people closer to using them. Recent data removes ambiguity, makes the case for use much clearer which is the opposite of what both sides want.

What is increasingly evident that the slowing of the Chinese economic growth has made it unlikely Taiwan will willingly merge, that makes the case for military action even stronger.

China will want its doctrines, its weapons battle tested before it commits to action. Which sadly for us means a more aggressive and assertive PAF totting all sorts of Chinese items, leaving it on us to find which work and which don't.

 

[Speedster1]

We do that & that's a declaration of war . Even the US hasn't gone that far. You can be sure if the US makes such a move they're crossing several red lines.

The former would do it only if they want to take on China which doesn't seem to be the case .

Another indication I've read the Chinese will launch their invasion is they resume testing of nukes , signalling their intention & strength of arms to the US .

That in turn will set of a chain reaction as every nation with declared nukes will resume testing.

We already have a trade mission in Taipei much like the US & many other nations essentially from the west. That's short hand for a full fledged embassy for it performs all the functions of a full fledged embassy

As one of the first countries to toe the One China line, it's time for us to atone for our sins. They haven't reciprocated on issues important to us. No point holding up our end of the bargain. From issuing stapled visas to athletes from Arunachal to building CPEC infra in PoK, they've been playing hard ball and India has to pay them back in the same coin.

As regards Taiwan, a quick Wikipedia search shows that smaller Pacific Island nations do have full fledged embassies on Taiwan (though China has been poaching them lately) but larger countries don't. It's just a question of priorities, imo.

China holds a big chunk of US national debt and that's probably why DC is wary of formally recognizing Taiwan. Europe has practically mortgaged itself to Beijing. We have no such compulsions.

We should let democracy do its thing, imo. Let's hold a referendum on the Tibet + Taiwan question and let the people of India decide. No way China could fault GoI for that.

 

[_Anonymous_]

China will want its doctrines, its weapons battle tested before it commits to action. Which sadly for us means a more aggressive and assertive PAF totting all sorts of Chinese items, leaving it on us to find which work and which don't.

This could well prove to be a double edged sword for China. By exposing their state of the art weapons against India, deploying them in Paxtan , we may risk more damage but there's no way we'd let Paxtan get the upper hand.

OTOH, by expositing their top of the line stuff & doctrines ( these will come in packages with Chinese supervision) they'd merely alert us to what they're capable of.

Therefore I'm not quite sure everything that's being reported in the papers quoting Shahbaz Sharif on new inductions from China is genuine.

I won't be surprised if it turns out to be true too. After all China's proved itself to be the inbred's iron brother in the recent past on multiple occasions by initiating Doklam then backing off then repeating the same with Galwan .

As one of the first countries to toe the One China line, it's time for us to atone for our sins. They haven't reciprocated on issues important to us. No point holding up our end of the bargain. From issuing stapled visas to athletes from Arunachal to building CPEC infra in PoK, they've been playing hard ball and India has to pay them back in the same coin.

As regards Taiwan, a quick Wikipedia search shows that smaller Pacific Island nations do have full fledged embassies on Taiwan (though China has been poaching them lately) but larger countries don't. It's just a question of priorities, imo.

China holds a big chunk of US national debt and that's probably why DC is wary of formally recognizing Taiwan. Europe has practically mortgaged itself to Beijing. We have no such compulsions.

We should let democracy do its thing, imo. Let's hold a referendum on the Tibet + Taiwan question and let the people of India decide. No way China could fault GoI for that.

Up until 2014 we weren't even interested in taking on Paxtan & you're talking about China here whom both the dhotis & baboos are extremely reluctant to confront leave aside go to war & you're talking about us initiating a conflict which is what recognition of Tibet as independent & recognition of Taiwan as a sovereign nation would lead to .

When Leaderji makes pronouncements that this isn't the era of war & that this is the land of Buddha, please take him at face value. There's nothing to read between the lines there.

The corroborative evidence is also right there in terms of the amount we're spending on defence with respect to the GDP which to repeat myself is the lowest since Independence even lower than what it was during Chacha's tenure & that's telling you a lot.

 

[Syama Ayas]

It just struck me the Chinese must be on the horns of a dilemma. Pass on the best weapons in their arsenal to India be it the HQ-19 or the J-35 & they risk a few things namely -

1.) risk being exposed once again for supplying junk but get an insight into how India'd prosecute its wars against China

2.) assuming they do get the better of India , that'd prompt India to go back to the drawing board & modenize aggressively which you don't want if you intend to go up against India later this decade

3.) then there's this obvious risk of avoiding the prying eyes of the US for let's face it this is Paxtan we're talking about where everything is for sale & everyone has a price.

Han goal ultimately, is to keep India occupied with Pakistan and fight India to the last Pakistani.

If anyone read articles from 2000s, in regard to Indian BMD, it was full of Pakistan military and intellectual churan claiming Indian BMDs are pointless, as given Pakistan is stone through away, the reaction time would be non-existant for India to intercept.
Hence, leading to the extermination of all Hindus on earth by Pakistani nuclear capability.

OP Sindoor broke that delusion, that ballistic missiles launched from Pakistan were not just intercepted, but intercepted 100%.

This puts Pakistani nuclear capability in a difficult spot, where they cannot intercept Indian missiles (Brahmos), but India can.

HQ-19 purpose is to bring balance to that, where Pakistan may have a chance to intercept at least some of the older missiles Prithvi or Agni 1 etc.

J-35 sale is to test how Chinese stealth does against an adversary like India. If it performs poorly, the Chinese can make improvements to it rather than learning about its shortcomings in a conflict with USA.


HQ-9 failure exposed a serious flaw for them, but its still good for Chinese since it was not exposed during a full scale military war with USAF and USN.