The Rafale F5/F6 could be a more suitable building block than an overly ambitious NGF as the initial core of the “actual SCAF”.
The war in Ukraine shows that the problem is not simply a matter of having an ultra-stealthy and very expensive platform. The problem is having a system capable of enduring in a saturated, jammed, observed, attritional environment, where drones, electronic warfare, long-range missiles and logistics matter just as much as the piloted airframe itself.
In this context, the Rafale has several advantages.
It is already here. It flies. It is in production. It is exported. It has a MRO chain. It has pilots, mechanics, successive standards, and integrated weapons. It can evolve without waiting twenty years.
It is versatile enough to become a pack leader: it can carry heavy armaments, pods, long-range missiles, communicate with drones, designate targets, conduct electronic warfare, and serve as a tactical command platform. With the F5, the escort drone and the ASN4G, we are already moving towards a ‘system of systems’ approach.
It is also more ‘robust’ in the best sense: less dependent on a fragile overall architecture, easier to maintain, more readily available, and more flexible. Yet Ukraine demonstrates that actual availability, regenerative capacity and industrial sustainability are criteria of paramount importance.
The NGF, for its part, risks falling into the classic trap: an aircraft so ambitious that it becomes scarce, expensive, slow to develop, difficult to maintain and produced in small batches. If it is expected to be simultaneously stealthy, penetrating, nuclear-capable, naval, a drone leader, a super-sensor, a super-jammer, a cloud node, an interceptor, a long-range strike aircraft and capable of surviving in all environments, we risk falling back into the F-35 trap: too many critical functions concentrated in a single platform.
The right architecture might therefore be different:
- The Rafale F5/F6 as a robust, piloted building block that is immediately available;
- specialised escort drones as high-risk or expendable building blocks;
- remote sensors;
- remote jammers;
- long-range munitions;
- a resilient but non-essential combat cloud;
- and then, later, an NGF designed only once the right trade-offs are clear.
In other words, perhaps we should not replace the Rafale too quickly with an NGF. Perhaps we should develop the Rafale into the operational core of the system, and relegate the NGF to the role of a specialised component: stealth penetration, future deterrence, very high intensity, advanced coordination. The system would no longer be built around a flagship aircraft, but around a set of building blocks, of which the Rafale would remain the most reliable for a long time to come.
The Rafale may be too “unfuturistic” for brochures, but it may be far more relevant for real warfare: available, adaptable, sustainable, armed, connected, and capable of gradually incorporating lessons from Ukraine.
The Rafale F5 could be not merely a stopgap solution, but the first credible version of the actual SCAF. The NGF would follow, once we know exactly which functions should be carried out by the piloted aircraft and which should be entrusted to drones, missiles, decoys, remote sensors and electronic warfare.