I think its having better chance to get mature before amca. But my main worry if Turkish program, if it succeede it will definitely end up with PAF.
I find the interview disappointing, you don't learn anything from it! and the features that scroll in the background are banalities that can be announced even before the program is launched. It doesn't give the impression that a lot of work has been done on this program.
The pakistani won't be able to afford it. The Turks have learnt a lot from western technology. And as western tech there tech is as expensive as western tech. None of the Turkish projects have been designed from scratch. The t129 was basically the a129 mangusta from Italy. There altay is basically the k2 black panther. Both of these programmes too expensive to maintain for the Turks themselves. What the Turks have done well though is making sub-systems for their outdated fleets. A lot of the f16 have been upgraded by the Turks themselves. Thanks to Israel and Germany there m60's and leopard can still be upgraded by the Turks themselves. Same for there small arms and drone tech. The Turks don't use an indigenous engine for there drones like bayraktar they are using an Austrian designed engine. Imagine if India had done this. We would be using rustam mk3 by now. The Pakistanis can only afford low tech stuff from the Turks for now. This includes basically there small arms which are too expensive and unreliable. There helicopters which use American engines and are sanctioned and so can't be exported to the Pakistanis. In that sense the Americans have helped us more than the Russians in not letting the Pakistanis gain edge in the last decade. While Russia has supplied Kornet,mi35 and rd33mk3 to them. The Pakistanis have shown no interest in there altay MBT program or there other systems in general. They do have some formidable products like Koral ew, bayraktar drone, cirit and so on. But too expensive..
Rest be assured project azm is basically going to be j31 painted green with some Turk electronics to cover up it's drawbacks.
ghanta Turkey is not even having experience of developing 4th gen jet and are dreaming to develop 5th gen jet directly.
sure if PAF can afford a 200$m pop.
Pakistan will afford, money constraints exist only with indian armed forces. I am sure that if Turkey succeed in gen5 fighter, it will fly in PAF for sure, remember both f16 & Turkish fighter is hosting same the engine too.
Lastly not least dont undermine Turkey when comes to defense, they have some pretty goo stuffs.
A lot of turkish equipment have high degree of foreign components even more so than indian products so any sale will need permission from other countries as well thats where our diplomacy comes in
From the tweet @_Anonymous_ posted on the GTRE Kaveri thread :
The poster says preliminary design is almost over & final design will end by Dec 2021 :
The model shown here is presumably the output of the preliminary design. It is quite different form the design seen in the EoI that was published sometime back. I can see :
It seems this design seen during the DefExpo was the closest to the final design :
The AMCA might end up closely resembling the F35. Thought it wont be as fat due to the twin engines. I really hope we do at least see a circular serrated nozzle though.
Timelines :
The poster says preliminary design is almost over & final design will end by Dec 2021 :
The model shown here is presumably the output of the preliminary design. It is quite different form the design seen in the EoI that was published sometime back. I can see :
- DSI intakes
- Forward swept intake cowl
- The horizontal tails seem to have grown in size
- The engine outlet still doesn't have any stealth nozzle
- Central weapons bay. No side bays
It seems this design seen during the DefExpo was the closest to the final design :
The AMCA might end up closely resembling the F35. Thought it wont be as fat due to the twin engines. I really hope we do at least see a circular serrated nozzle though.
Timelines :
From Air Chief's Press Conference
@Gautam @randomradio @Ankit Kumar @vstol Jockey @_Anonymous_ @RISING SUN @rockstarIN @Saaho @AbRaj @suryakiran @lcafanboy @Milspec @Nilgiri @GuardianRED
No way will the AMCA Mk2 be ready by 2034.
Mk1 is simpler. Well-known engine and LCA Mk2++ avionics. The 2031 deadline is quite realistic.
Mk2 will have a brand new engine and will require next gen avionics. Merely 3 years after Mk1's introduced is way too tight a deadline. For the Russians and the Chinese, it's 5 to 7 years for the Su-57 Mk2 and J-20C, and with everything under their control.
Mk1 is simpler. Well-known engine and LCA Mk2++ avionics. The 2031 deadline is quite realistic.
Mk2 will have a brand new engine and will require next gen avionics. Merely 3 years after Mk1's introduced is way too tight a deadline. For the Russians and the Chinese, it's 5 to 7 years for the Su-57 Mk2 and J-20C, and with everything under their control.
Perhaps they will begin to work on the MK2 before the introduction of the MK1?
Of course, I've already considered that. You still need 2-3 years for production, apart from 3-5 years of flight testing.
The new engine is yet to finish design, then it needs to be built and flight tested, which is easily a 7 to 10-year process.
Sometimes the comprehension abilities of our defense journalists & OSINT guys leaves me astounded. It seems stunting in childhood with its aftereffects observed through the rest of one's life is more widespread than previously understood & appreciated.
450 aircrafts & helicopters of varying functions was reported as 450 fighter aircrafts & in speculations thus made out here, made incurable optimists out of all of us .
Some people are so ignorant that they hear something and somehow connect it to something entirely irrelevant. The world is filled with such people and are sadly completely and utterly incurable. So much so that they can't even think for themselves and connecting the dots is beyond their intellectual ability.
Fighter jets
Phase I, contracts before 2027: 36 Rafale, 21 Mig-29, 83 LCA, 114 MRFA, 118 LCA Mk2, 40 AMCA Mk1 = 376.
Phase II, contracts after 2027 to 2037: 50% of MRFA, 50% of LCA Mk2, 110 AMCA Mk2 = 226
Total = 600+
Helicopters
Phase I: 65 LCH, 61 LUH, 65 Ka-226T = 191
According to the IAF Chief:
Phase I: Mig-29+MRFA+LCA Mk2+LCH+LUH+Ka-226T = 444.
Without considering LCA Mk1A and AMCA. Also without considering an LCA Mk1B, which he hints at as a possibility. And without considering a second order of Rafales.
With LCA: Total = 527
With LCA and AMCA Mk1: Total = 567
With LCA, AMCA and LCA Mk1B (60+) = 627+
Dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb.
However, in certain rare cases, some people can find a fix, 'cause there is always a chance.
Yes, you do, my friend, yeeesss, you do.
Fighter jets
Phase I, contracts before 2027: 36 Rafale, 21 Mig-29, 83 LCA, 114 MRFA, 118 LCA Mk2, 40 AMCA Mk1 = 376.
Phase II, contracts after 2027 to 2037: 50% of MRFA, 50% of LCA Mk2, 110 AMCA Mk2 = 226
Total = 600+
Helicopters
Phase I: 65 LCH, 61 LUH, 65 Ka-226T = 191
According to the IAF Chief:
Phase I: Mig-29+MRFA+LCA Mk2+LCH+LUH+Ka-226T = 444.
Without considering LCA Mk1A and AMCA. Also without considering an LCA Mk1B, which he hints at as a possibility. And without considering a second order of Rafales.
With LCA: Total = 527
With LCA and AMCA Mk1: Total = 567
With LCA, AMCA and LCA Mk1B (60+) = 627+
Dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb.
However, in certain rare cases, some people can find a fix, 'cause there is always a chance.
Yes, you do, my friend, yeeesss, you do.
I think, we are being very optimistic about timelines. Gradual upgrades, which will get suggested by the IAF to in-design/testing aircraft is not assumed, which will push the time-line by another 15-25%. This is wrt to AMCA.
LCA needs to be tuned further and moved up in tranches every 3 years. For this, there needs to be a roadmap. Merely putting Mk1, MK1A and then Mk2 will not cut it.
Improving Mk1A to Mk1B and Mk1C should be part of plan. This should include improvements to avionics and ew capabilities. Potential for an engine providing more power for weapons and avionics. By the time the AMCA starts coming online in 2035, realistically, the rest of the supporting tech should be deployed on the LCA.
Even that's going to be less. They should give it a realistic 20 years and then deliver sooner than that. At least the IAF will make contingencies beforehand instead of being hung out to dry like what happened with LCA.
The LCA Mk1 is limited by its small airframe. So it won't manage anything more than interception, limited CAP and escort. The mere lack of an extra 0.5m of space did it in.
But LCA Mk1/Mk1A and Mk2 are pretty much tranche upgrades. The F-16 followed the same route. Saab is doing exactly the same with Gripen as well. If LCA Mk1 is Gripen A, then LCA Mk1A is Gripen C and LCA Mk2 is Gripen E.