China’s “String of Pearls” and India's Two Front War Predicament : Analysis

Arbit said:
The time for action is now. Once the CPEC gains wind for better or worse, it will provide us with a fait accompli. Not to say it cannot be managed by a competent leadership but will we have competent leader ship 15-20 years down the line. That is the question we need to give a good thought.

Secondly If I were to take a decision, putting it crudely and succinctly : I would get all countries on my Side, annex POK, call a bluff and immediately give a holler to Chinese accepting CPEC through Indian territory.
Its business, they will understand once their business is secured and trade route access isn't cut off, which, of course we will promise to secure. On our terms.

This is of course need to proceed with much finesse than I have written, but something tells me we are moving towards the same general direction.

Mark these words. We might test a big fat agni in coming months. :p




Once support of key countries is acquired, Seizing Pok shouldn't be much of a problem. As for the majority not interested in Pok, they are only thinking about the population. Whereas its territory which is important. We have managed Kashmir, what a few district size populations centres will do to the equation. Nothing.

Edit: Added quote
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Big Fat Agni again I see :LOL::LOL:
 
screambowl said:
Is there anything left to analyze? LOL
They have already encircled India.
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With thousands of kilometers away from mainland china supply lines/ jugular vein constantly under observation of Indian navy who is surrounding whom would be an enigma to solve. If you add american infrastructures in vicinity of Indian Ocean its chinese who would be surrounded by Quad and will be unevenly matched in terms of military infrastructure and defence budget size.
 
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Shashank said:
With thousands of kilometers away from mainland china supply lines/ jugular vein constantly under observation of Indian navy who is surrounding whom would be an enigma to solve. If you add american infrastructures in vicinity of Indian Ocean its chinese who would be surrounded by Quad and will be unevenly matched in terms of military infrastructure and defence budget size.
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Fact is India is surrounded. The GOI has no money to bribe the neighbours and countries around China.
Where as china is using it's own money to topple governments.

There is nothing left to analyze. And For God sake you may be be happy with American presence around India I am not.
 
China upgrades airspace defense in west to counter threat from India: military specialist

China is upgrading its Western Theater Command in order to confront any threat from India, a Chinese military specialist said after photographs of a J-10 jet flying over the high-altitude plateau in western China were released by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) during the Spring Festival holiday.

The pictures posted on the English version of the PLA website show a J-10 fighter jet and J-11 fighter jets conducting aerial combat training exercises in Western China on February 13, two days before Spring Festival.

The Western Theater Command is mainly responsible for mountain warfare at the border area with India. It is significant for China to strengthen control of airspace over the mountainous region, Song Zhongping, a Chinese military expert and TV commentator, told the Global Times on Tuesday.

"Strengthening the 3.5-generation fighter jets or even stationing more advanced fighters in the Western Theatre Command has been urgent for the PLA," Song said, adding that such upgrades have been usually first conducted in south and east theatre commands.

Considering that India possesses 3rd-generation fighter jets, China's stationing of its 3.5-generation jets would be able to deal with any current threat from India, said Song. "With India importing new jets, China will continue strengthening its fighter jets in the Western Theatre Command," Song said.
 
screambowl said:
Fact is India is surrounded. The GOI has no money to bribe the neighbours and countries around China.
Where as china is using it's own money to topple governments.

There is nothing left to analyze. And For God sake you may be be happy with American presence around India I am not.
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Americans were always there so I guess thats why you have been unhappy since I have seen you in forum world. :P
I would love to know which government in our vicinity was toppled with chinese money.
 
Shashank said:
Americans were always there so I guess thats why you have been unhappy since I have seen you in forum world. :p
I would love to know which government in our vicinity was toppled with chinese money.
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I am unhappy because of stupid and idiotic policies of our leaders in the area of strategic depth
 
Shashank said:
what do you think should be our approach to chinese aggression in our vicinity ?
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Without economy there is no approach.

When your exports are greater than imports that's the time you can actually think of beating China.

For eg: I was so shocked when I saw more than thousand tons of good quality potatos being thrown in the field due to excessive growth in UP

The idiots in our establishment don't even have this much knowledge that it can be used for producing alcohol or bio fuel.

With this attitude you can never go ahead. The rest discussion comes after this.
 
screambowl said:
Without economy there is no approach.

When your exports are greater than imports that's the time you can actually think of beating China.

For eg: I was so shocked when I saw more than thousand tons of good quality potatos being thrown in the field due to excessive growth in UP

The idiots in our establishment don't even have this much knowledge that it can be used for producing alcohol or bio fuel.

With this attitude you can never go ahead. The rest discussion comes after this.
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What you said here should go to economy thread. For now we have to manage foreign policy with whatever economic, political and military strength we have got. Whats best foreign policy approach we should have in current scenario.
 
Shashank said:
What you said here should go to economy thread. For now we have to manage foreign policy with whatever economic, political and military strength we have got. Whats best foreign policy approach we should have in current scenario.
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Foreign policy is decided on the basis of economy too. And business is an important part of it. If you act now it will work further delays will reduce the speed. And China will keep paying the neighbouring countries a lot of money to topple the government.

So before any further delays start industrial expansion to increase industrial capability and increase the export to neighbouring countries and west. When you have money you can do a lot of things. More over such export will give you multiple reason to expand diplomatic relations to a next level.
 
Russian POV to QUAD against China

US, Allies Plan to Counter Beijing is Bilateral Response to China's Rise - Prof.

The US, Australia, India and Japan have reportedly been negotiating the establishment of a joint regional infrastructure plan to counter China’s multibillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative. Sputnik discussed the issue with Zhiqun Zhu, Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Bucknell University.

Sputnik: How realistic is this plan by the United States and its allies to establish a joint project that can compete with China?

Zhiqun Zhu: It's too early to tell, because right now this idea is still at the discussion stage. Prime Minister Turnbull and President Donald Trump will discuss this when Turnbull visits the United States later this week, so I think at this stage, we don't exactly know the scale of this project, the objectives of this proposed project and most importantly we don't know how this is going to be implemented, so I don't think that right now this means much to China.

Sputnik: So what impact can this announcement have on the Chinese project?

Zhiqun Zhu: I don't think this is a challenge to China. I think that China's One Belt One Road project is open, it's inclusive and I think that China would welcome competition actually. I think competition is going to be welcomed by everybody including China, for those countries in different regions, I think they welcome different choices. Let's say China wants to build a road through a region with civil wars or terrorists, obviously, if other countries are involved with a greater international pressure, you'll see more security.

Sputnik: What's your take on the fact that some experts have said that it remains unclear whether the countries will have enough liquidity and money to invest in the project?

Zhiqun Zhu: Funding will be a big problem here. We all know that President Trump has the “America First” policy and where does the money come from? Japan and Prime Minister Abe has this Abenomics economic policy, it has achieved some success, but it has not in many aspects. India sometimes exaggerates its power. Australia is also very interesting, Australia trades extensively with China, and China has always been Australia's largest trading partner in the past decade or so. I don't think these countries will really disrupt their relations with China and, particularly, I doubt they will come up with any money to fund this massive project. I don't think this is an economic project, I tend to think that this is more a political, strategic, diplomatic project, because at the basic level you see the rise of China, you see the One Belt One Road from China, such an ambitious, extensive project. I think the United States and particularly Japan, India in Asia feel challenged, feel threatened so they have do something. So I consider this idea, this new proposed project from these four countries as part of their efforts to counter China's growing influence globally. I don't worry about whether they have money or not, I am more concerned about how this is going to lead to a strategic competition and rivalry and that's something I think we need to worry about.

Sputnik: Some analysts have said that the nations could use this project to exert pressure on Beijing, on the issues like the South China Sea disputes, for example, is this likely to be true?
Zhiqun Zhu: To some extent yes, because a part of the One Belt One Road includes this Maritime Silk Road that extends from South China to the South China Sea and all the way to South Asia and Africa. So, yes, if these four countries build their own program, it will be a rival to China's Maritime Silk Road and the South China Sea is exactly located in that area, so there will be some pressure on China. But I don't think this program is aimed at the South China Sea, I think this is a part of a broader, this bilateral, this four parties’ response to China's rise. At the fundamental level, I think, they don't know what to do about the rising power of China, so that's why they're initiating all these different kind of programs as a way to deal with the rise in Chinese power.
 
Quad, like sea foam, will dissipate soon: China

Regular frothing from Chinese mouth Pieces means more they are worried about it.

China on Thursday said the arrangement between the US, India, Japan and Australia – dubbed as quad – apparently to contain China was like “sea foam” and would “dissipate” soon.

India and Australia have shown willingness to join the quadrilateral security initiative, an idea floated by Japan in 2007. The emergence of the bloc seemingly to counter an increasingly assertive China in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean has worried Beijing.

“It seems that there is never a shortage of headline-grabbing ideas. These ideas are like sea foam in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean. They may get some attention but soon dissipate,” said Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

Wang was replying to a question about the grouping’s apparent aim to counter China and its multi-billion dollar connectivity, the Belt and Road project.

The four countries are reportedly in talks with each other to set up a joint regional infrastructure scheme as an alternative to the Belt and Road initiative.

“Contrary to the claim made by some academics and media outlets that the Indo-Pacific strategy aims to contain China, the four countries’ official position is that it targets no one.

“I hope they mean what they say and their action will match their rhetoric.

“As to the relationship between Indo-Pacific strategy and the Belt and Road initiative, let us not forget that BRI has received the support of over 100 countries,” he added.

The US, India, Japan and Australia have growing concerns over China’s increasing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region and its ambitious Belt and Road connectivity project.
 
It's US's fault,
first they set up their companies to outsource production in china and then they say China is becoming powerful. China steals the technology and uses it for defence purpose. Whose fault it is?

On the other hand I also blame India after US for this. World has always favored India be it UNSC or outsourcing the manufacture. But the netas in the land have always dissapointed Indian economy growth and industrialisation.
Lack of sense to manage industries with strong industrial laws and environ-management has corrupted the current and previous decades with slow economic growth.
Now cry baby attitude when China takes the lead.
 
Chinese flotilla made an about turn after entering Indian Ocean when one of our Submarines, let it be known to them that we not only have them covered on surface and air but also sub surface as the submarines which they were hiding under this flotilla, got buzzed by our subs.
 
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Chinese eyes in Sri Lanka to monitor movements of Indian warships?

India's sees it as a threat, China says it is only for academic work, restricted to oceanographic studies. But alarm bells in South Block are already ringing. China has suggested to Sri Lanka that it steps up a radar station at Ruhuna University, on the southern coast of Sri Lanka, next to Dondra Head. The government of Sri Lanka has been involved in the project. While the exact details of the proposed radar station are not yet confirmed, it is likely, according to high-level sources that it is a High-Frequency Short Wave radar station with a range of 180 km towards the Indian Ocean and a coverage of 120 degrees. The Chinese say the radar station would be used for oceanographic studies. China has apparently told the Sri Lankans that "ship tracking" abilities could happen later. This has given rise to the belief in India that the Sri Lankan navy has been deliberately kept out of the loop

China has said it will fund the project and claim it is a scientific venture between the Sri Lankan Ruhuna University and the South China Sea Institute of Oceanology. This is being seen as a 'wolf in sheep's clothing' type of situation by India. Naturally, if it were openly described as a military project, many countries including India would be opposed to it.

Even the oceanographic surveys will be used for collecting hydrological and bathymetric data valuable for submarine deployments and operations and undersea combat. The intelligence report says: "It is assessed that the oceanographic surveys being undertaken by the Chinese ships for collecting vital hydrological and bathymetric data, which would be valuable for submarine deployments and operations and undersea combat." China's other ploy is even more worrying. Intelligence reports suggest that China is keen to bid for the Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre in Sri Lanka and offer funding and technical support. There is serious concern about the proposal and the giving up of 'strategic space.' Which is why the government of India was initially considering a proposal be commissioned to undertake the project with good financial terms and letter of credit.

Then, the chairman, chiefs of staff committee (COSC) and Navy Chief, Admiral Sunil Lanba, has suggested that the Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre in Sri Lanka be funded by the Indian government. This is exactly what the Indian high commission in Colombo has been saying. On 25 October 2017, it has also suggested that the Indian government pay for the project. About US $6 million is being talked about but it is a small price to pay for not having China breathing down India's neck.
 
India announces $100m line of credit for defence procurement by Mauritius

NEW DELHI: Keeping a steady focus on the Indian Oceanregion, President Ram Nath Kovind announced a new $100 million line of credit for defence procurement by Mauritius, in addition to a multipurpose offshore patrol vessel (MPOPV) to build its capacities.

According to a statement by the Rashtrapati Bhavan, this would be financed by a grant of $5 million and the new line of credit. Coming after the new strategic vision document on the Indian Ocean between India and France, the President’s visit to Mauritius and Madagascar acquires a whole new dimension.

During French president Emanuel Macron’s visit last week, India and France signed an agreement under which both the nations would open their naval bases to warships from each other. "A strong part of our security and the world's stability is at stake in the Indian Ocean," Macron said. "The Indian Ocean, like the Pacific Ocean, cannot become a place of hegemony," he added. Prime minister Modi said the Indian ocean region would play a “crucial” role, justifying the defence deal.

In Madagascar too, where Kovind will visit next, India is also looking at a security agreement. Briefing journalists before his visit, joint secretary in the MEA Neena Malhotra said India would be looking forward to a defence agreement there too. “We already have defence cooperation agreement with almost all Indian Ocean littoral countries. We have defence cooperation agreement with South Africa, Tanzania, Kenya, Mozambique and Mauritius and Seychelles of course. We are expecting to sign similar agreements with other countries, so Madagascar could be one of them.” Madagascar is important for India’s security outreach, situated as it is along the vital Mozambique Channel.

India is also undertaking an infrastructure development project in Mauritius’ Agalega island with dual-use logistical facilities. MEA joint secretary Sanjay Panda told journalists last week, “We have now moved forward with implementation phase now so tendering has commenced and we would soon be getting into the other related works.”

The Assumption Island project in Seychelles is the third pole of the current outreach. However, even after signing a revised agreement with India in January this year, doubts have been raised about whether the Danny Faure government would be able to get the Seychelles parliament to ratify the deal, given regular public protests against allowing India to have any foothold in the Assumption Island.

Last year, Kovind also undertook his first visit to Djibouti, where China has set up a military base. The Djibouti president was in India last week for the Solar summit, and India is trying to set up a mission in that country, though currently it is serviced by the Yemen mission which had to move to Djibouti after war broke out there.

India is a late mover in this backyard where it is playing catch-up with China which has used its considerable resources and implementation capabilities to mark a bigger space for itself in the Indian Ocean region.


India, Madagascar sign umbrella agreement in defence sector

The two countries will have co-sharing agreement with Air Seychelles through Air India and Air Madagascar.

India and Madagascar have signed an umbrella agreement in the field of defence. Under the agreement, both the countries will explore various ways of co-operation in the field of defence. An amended air service agreement was also signed to support efforts towards improving connectivity between the two countries.

The two countries will have co-sharing agreement with Air Seychelles through Air India and Air Madagascar.

President Ram Nath Kovind held delegation level talks with his Madagascar counterpart in Anta-nana-rivo. President Kovind announced a donation of 1000 tonnes of rice and a cash grant of 2 million dollars towards multiple calamities relief in Madagascar.

President Ram Nath Kovind and Madagascar President Rajaonarimampianina jointly inaugurated Center for Geo-informatics Applications in Rural Development in Anta-nana-rivo. The Center has been fully financed by India.This will help Madagaskar in getting information about there resources through geo-mapping.

--Madagascar President thanked India for its continued support. The Madagascar President decorated President Ramnath Kovind with second highest civilian honour Grand Cross.


Prez Kovind's visit to Mauritius, Madagascar is not about optics - Here's India's 'Indian Ocean' game plan

1521025189-Ram-Nath-Kovind-Madagascar-Twitter.jpg


@rashtrapatibhvn | Photo Credit: Twitter

New Delhi: "Optics," is what most visits by Presidents of India have been about; firm handshakes was more on the agenda than say, strategic decision-making. This visit to Mauritius and Madagascar by President Ram Nath Kovind isn't only about optics. That it's happening with the Maldives in the balance and even Army chief, General Bipin Rawat, saying it's still not clear whether the decision to intervene in the Maldives was the right decision or not, is also important.

So, what's happened in the last few days?

Mauritius has a population of about 1.3 million many of whom are of Indian origin and to Mauritius, India has offered a $100 million Letter of Credit for defence purchases. And where is this island nation going to get its arms from: probably from Indian defence public sector undertakings and the Indian Ordnance Factory Board. What Mauritius doesn't need is state-of-the-art equipment, it needs basic weapons systems and India is going to transfer an off-shore patrol vessel, a handy warship, and that is what is required, not a nuclear submarine! And for all the arms, there is a discount: India is also offering a $5million discount from India. This is the $US5 million dollar grant from India to Mauritius.

And it's not just weapons transfers. India has promised to develop a port for Mauritius at Akalega Island. Which means serious investment and a presence for a while in the island. And Akalega is a port the Indian Navy could be used from 2020 and after. Kovind hasn't gone to Seychelles but here too, on Assumption Island, India is working on a port and here too, it is expected that Indian naval vessels will be welcome

President Kovind arrived in Madagascar on the 14th of March and here too there is the talk of Indian Navy showing the flag.

What does this all mean? Simply that 'the Centre has decided that regardless of the presence of the Americans, the French and increasingly, the Chinese, the Indian Ocean should be Indian too'.
 
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