If sanctions are not lifted, then Russia's long term currency projections are not good. It will make the imports of these goodies way cheaper for us.
Plus the privilege of being the only real customer left.
Dassault Rafale - Updates and Discussion
- Thread starter Domobran7
- Start date
If sanctions are not lifted, then Russia's long term currency projections are not good. It will make the imports of these goodies way cheaper for us.
Plus the privilege of being the only real customer left.
Russia's ordered 76 PAK FAs.
tass.com
Russia’s Aerospace Forces will receive 22 Su-57 fighters by late 2024 and their number will increase to 76 by 2028
Russia was gonna buy 51 of the first model and 25 of the second with the new engine. But this number was pre-war. SAP-2027, 2018-27, has been withdrawn for a new procurement plan which will see the production of up to 100 Su-57s a year long term, ie, 2030+.
They have more money than India, at least 3 times more in terms of capital budget, pre-war. Otoh, the IAF is happy with just a 30% increase in its capital budget until 2030. The Russians can afford far more with their pre-war budget alone.
Item 30 has been flying since 2017. The M model is not a new airframe, the engine is a dropfit in both.
theaviationist.com
The first successful test flight with an Su-57 using the new Izdeliye-30 took place on Tuesday, Dec. 5, 2017.
This rhyme is called "Ignorants":
The Russians say true
It's 2018, not 2022
Some people have no clue
And nobody knows what to do
If only they knew
I can rhyme too
The Russians know true
They call me the Indian Dr. Suess
Russia’s Su-57 outshines US fifth-generation fighters, says expert
Russia’s Aerospace Forces will receive 22 Su-57 fighters by late 2024 and their number will increase to 76 by 2028
tass.com
Russia was gonna buy 51 of the first model and 25 of the second with the new engine. But this number was pre-war. SAP-2027, 2018-27, has been withdrawn for a new procurement plan which will see the production of up to 100 Su-57s a year long term, ie, 2030+.
They have more money than India, at least 3 times more in terms of capital budget, pre-war. Otoh, the IAF is happy with just a 30% increase in its capital budget until 2030. The Russians can afford far more with their pre-war budget alone.
Item 30 has been flying since 2017. The M model is not a new airframe, the engine is a dropfit in both.
Russia's Su-57 Stealth Fighter Completes Engine Upgrade and Continues Development Amid Business Concerns
Program Technically on Track, But Will Logistics and Finances Ground New Russian Superfighter? Russia’s contribution to the 5th Generation of air combat
theaviationist.com
This rhyme is called "Ignorants":
The Russians say true
It's 2018, not 2022
Some people have no clue
And nobody knows what to do
If only they knew
I can rhyme too
The Russians know true
They call me the Indian Dr. Suess
This is how various Russian outlets & Russian aerospace watchers see events . Please be informed that all sources shared here are of 2021 or 2022 vintage mostly i.e they're contemporary :
Источник контента: Новый двигатель с плазменной системой зажигания для Су-57. «Изделие 30» и искусство компромиссов
naukatehnika.com
tass.com
www.businessinsider.com
tass.ru
bulgarianmilitary.com
As would be made clear from a perusal of these sources, the M model recently test flew the Item 30 , as late as Oct 2022 & is expected to complete it's certification only by 2026 . Incidentally I never said anything about the M model being aerodynamically different nor did I ever claim the Item 30 hasn't been test flown till date. All I stated was the M model wasn't tested with the Item 30 which it wasn't as late as Oct 22 , less than 2 months ago . I stand corrected .
In fact I was arguing for the opposite stating that if there was little change between the structures of both models what extra ingredients would the M model have to persuade the RuAF into going in for more numbers.
As the sources above testify they aren't doing so as of now. It's still 76 nos. How storyteller got new production plans up to 100 / yr implying that the RuAF would up it's procurement is something he can best answer. After all it's still 2022.
On the one hand we're told that RuAF pre war budget was thrice the IAF's budget whereas the IAF was supposed to make do with just 30% increase in it's cap ex you until 2030 & OTOH the same statement is reiterated to emphasize the RuAF can afford far more with their pre war budget alone. Make out of that what you will & compare it to # 221.
Then I get flak for pointing out insane optimism.
The little limerick at the end was good up until the way it ended . Me thinks Grinch rhymes better with true than Dr Seuss or at the very least it captures the situation better, but hey what do I know about insane optimism that too in 2022 where a lot of goodies were promised since the past 4-5 yrs ?
I just wondered if my lousy rhyme was good enough to bring out the limericist in someone, how's it that several appeals to temper insane optimism in that same someone doesn't inspire the same response. Perhaps coz it's 2022 ?
Источник контента: Новый двигатель с плазменной системой зажигания для Су-57. «Изделие 30» и искусство компромиссов
naukatehnika.com
Новый двигатель с плазменной системой зажигания для Су-57. «Изделие 30» и искусство компромиссов
Главный конструктор ОКБ имени Люльки Евгений Марчуков рассказал о новом двигателе с плазменной системой зажигания и уменьшенной радиолокационной заметностью, которым оснастят новейший российский истребитель Су-57.
naukatehnika.com
Russia’s upgraded Su-57 fifth-generation fighter performs debut flight
It is noted that the aircraft also offers a possibility to install a second-stage engine
tass.com
Russia says an upgraded version of its struggling Su-57 stealth jet finally made its debut flight
Moscow has touted the Su-57 as exceeding the capabilities of the F-22 and F-35, but its struggled to get its stealth jet into the air.
www.businessinsider.com
ОАК и Минобороны обсуждают возможность создания двухместного Су-57 - ТАСС
Преимуществом новой версии истребителя могут быть новые тактические возможности при действиях с БЛА различного назначения, отметил генеральный директор ОАК Юрий Слюсарь
tass.ru
Russia forms the first Su-57 squadron near Komsomolsk on Amur
The first produced Su-57 is already serving the Western Military District. Remaining six so far are located on the outskirts of the Komsomolsk on the Amur plant
bulgarianmilitary.com
As would be made clear from a perusal of these sources, the M model recently test flew the Item 30 , as late as Oct 2022 & is expected to complete it's certification only by 2026 . Incidentally I never said anything about the M model being aerodynamically different nor did I ever claim the Item 30 hasn't been test flown till date. All I stated was the M model wasn't tested with the Item 30 which it wasn't as late as Oct 22 , less than 2 months ago . I stand corrected .
In fact I was arguing for the opposite stating that if there was little change between the structures of both models what extra ingredients would the M model have to persuade the RuAF into going in for more numbers.
As the sources above testify they aren't doing so as of now. It's still 76 nos. How storyteller got new production plans up to 100 / yr implying that the RuAF would up it's procurement is something he can best answer. After all it's still 2022.
On the one hand we're told that RuAF pre war budget was thrice the IAF's budget whereas the IAF was supposed to make do with just 30% increase in it's cap ex you until 2030 & OTOH the same statement is reiterated to emphasize the RuAF can afford far more with their pre war budget alone. Make out of that what you will & compare it to # 221.
Then I get flak for pointing out insane optimism.
The little limerick at the end was good up until the way it ended . Me thinks Grinch rhymes better with true than Dr Seuss or at the very least it captures the situation better, but hey what do I know about insane optimism that too in 2022 where a lot of goodies were promised since the past 4-5 yrs ?
I just wondered if my lousy rhyme was good enough to bring out the limericist in someone, how's it that several appeals to temper insane optimism in that same someone doesn't inspire the same response. Perhaps coz it's 2022 ?
Your scepticism is understandable. But after this war, Russia is going to expedite all its next gen military projects be it Su-57M or T-14 or PAK DA, PAK DP and much more.
Their golden plane Su-34 got hammered in Ukraine by MANPADS and Ukro ADS. They now fully understand the importance of 5th gen planes.
Russia is also in a war of survival with the biggest super power of the world and its cronies. They will do whatever they need to remain dominant.
Only time will tell though I can tell you this much that a lot of what's now on the table including what you're listing would probably end up on the chopping block & the ones which do come out would be vastly inferior to what it's today even given Russian standards.
Money is one issue but it's their critical dependance on the West for SMCs ( for which their indigenous facilities are rudimentary at best) & other critical electronics plus their own obsolescence & lack of R&D in this regard which is going to haunt them.
No it isnt. Period.
That's the catch. Before F-22 no plane combined stealth with super maneuverability, but Americans did it.
What if 6th gen planes retain the agility of 4th/5th gen planes? If they don't then certainly evolved 4.5 gen like Rafale has a fighting chance, otherwise it shall be very difficult.
Agreed. But still agility can't ever be removed from air combat, no matter how much the tech evolves. One should always prepare for a knife fight in a phone booth especially against a peer rival.
Mig-41 is going to be an interceptor like Mig-31. NGAD and future Chinese 6th gen(J-30/40??) would be optimised for air dominance.
Only the IAF has the answer.
I always base my opinions based on the behaviour of the forces. If it was up to me, I would have delayed MRFA by a year, ie 2024, and bought 36 more Rafales in the meantime. But the IAF has way more information than I do. I'm guessing they are of the opinion the 36 Rafales and cooperation with MKI can deal with any threat the Chinese can throw at us until the end of the decade.
While MRFA will take until 2030 to deliver, MKI MLU is set to deliver from 2026-27 onwards. So it's just a few years of waiting, which is not much.
The NGAD design meant for China will focus on endurance, so it's not gonna have agility. The NGAD design meant for Russia could have it. Gotta wait for time to answer.
Running away may become more important. Drones can die, but the fighter must survive.
Mig-41 is definitely not comparable to NGAD and J-XX. Even the Mig-41 can use drones to compensate for shortfalls in the Air Superiority mission.
Even if the Mig-41 is not an ASF, what's NGAD and J-XX gonna do against an aircraft zipping around at mach 3, 20Km above you? Plus it's expected to be more stealthy than the Su-57.
I guess we will see all these designs over the next few years, so we can make our conclusions then.
The Item 30 was not flown in the Oct prototype. The new proto is for avionics and comes with the old reliable engines instead. The final prototype should get the new engine before the aircraft heads for state trials, aka user trials, in a year or two.
The Russian defence budget in terms of quality is far higher than India's while also being much bigger. They spend less to do more and they have a lot more of it. From 2014 to 2022, they took delivery of 400+ FAs, while we managed only 120+. Not counting hundreds of helicopters and other aircraft they have inducted, while also funding other massive modernisation and development programs simultaneously, including the IL-476, Tu-160M and PAK DA. Their SAM modernisation is nothing to scoff at. We are bragging about 5 S-400 regiments, they have already inducted 28, and they don't seem to have stopped yet.
The Russian defence budget in terms of quality is far higher than India's while also being much bigger. They spend less to do more and they have a lot more of it. From 2014 to 2022, they took delivery of 400+ FAs, while we managed only 120+. Not counting hundreds of helicopters and other aircraft they have inducted, while also funding other massive modernisation and development programs simultaneously, including the IL-476, Tu-160M and PAK DA. Their SAM modernisation is nothing to scoff at. We are bragging about 5 S-400 regiments, they have already inducted 28, and they don't seem to have stopped yet.
Russian Su-57 with Artificial Intelligence is under testing
An upgraded Sukhoi Su-57 made its first flight in October 2022. The combat aircraft features several new systems but
frontierindia.com
Muahahahahahaha
And I have a question, "why IAF why?". 36 more Rafales was a no brainer. With ISE set and infrastructure for 4 squadrons, it doesn't make any sense to order only 2.
I think they thought that gov would buy 2 more and then scrap MRFA. And IAF is hell-bent on MRFA as we all know. They should have gone for 36 F3R as gov to gov path and then select F4.2 as MRFA winner to make 114 planes in India with TOT.
In case 114 Rafale(s) deal is too expensive for GOI, Gripen E was always the next best choice.
Chinese have already teamed J-20 with J-16! Can our Rafale and MKI combo beat that? Only the time will tell.
The earlier the better. AESA radar and new QWIP IRST are absolutely mandatory items on MKI even now. If new engine comes, the better.
Ok. But never underestimate 'The Eagle(US)' in air warfare. No plane still has the kinematics of F-22 and its successor won't be any bad.
What if NGAD and J-XX both supercruise at Mach 3+ as well with amazing endurance?
See above.
Yup.
This post is intelligence of highest level. Kudos
The IAF originally wanted 80 jets, but that was cut down to 36.
Unlike what people believe, there was no options clause with the 36 jet GTG. Since it was signed via an IGA, an options clause is unnecessary. The IGA caters to future orders of any numbers if necessary.
What's interesting is GoI was fine with a 90-jet order with local production of the Rafale, but the IAF chose the tender route. So we need to assume they know what they are doing. At least we know GoI is not a hurdle in MRFA.
The IAF were originally ready for a tender in 2019, they were out requesting an AON for it. But they seem to have gone back to the drawing board once Rafale entered service, or possibly after Galwan. You will notice that pretty much all of IAF's fighter projects were finalised only this year, 2022. LCA Mk2's CDR happened 2 days before 2022 started. AMCA's CDR is also almost complete. MRFA's requirements along with MKI's MLU requirements were also finalised only this year. There's the mysterious FUFA too, a lot of work was done this year. So 2022 was extremely significant for the next 20-30 years for the IAF.
It may be possible. NGAD was advertised with a requirement for greater speed.
Piecing Together the NGAD Puzzle | Air & Space Forces Magazine
The Next-Generation Air Dominance family of systems remains highly classified. But some details are beginning to emerge.
www.airandspaceforces.com
But that's Mig-31 level performance, not Mig-41.
Supercruise is a very important feature for ASFs, so the NGAD should be able to cruise around at mach 2 or more, no different from Su-57 and possibly J-XX. But all three should come with regular turbofan engines due to the need for low level subsonic performance. The Mig-41 could have a hybrid engine, turbojet+ramjet combo. We already know the Russians are a decade or more ahead of the Americans and Chinese in hypersonics.
Colombia seems to have preselected 16 rafales for 3 US billion dollars
www.infodefensa.com
16 rafales 3 billions US dollars
16 F-35 5 billions US dollars
Colombia preselecciona al Rafale como su futuro avión de combate
Asimismo, explicó que también se han evaluado las prpuestas de Suecia, con los Gripen de Saab, y de Estados Unidos, con los F-16 de Lockheed Martin. Sin embargo, desde el Gobierno afirm ...
16 rafales 3 billions US dollars
16 F-35 5 billions US dollars
Colombia seems to have preselected 16 rafales for 3 US billion dollars
stay tuned
www.infodefensa.com
16 rafales 3 billions US dollars
16 F-35 5 billions US dollars
One rafale's flight hour sems to be 30% cheaper than KFIR.
www.infodefensa.com
stay tuned
Colombia preselecciona al Rafale como su futuro avión de combate
Asimismo, explicó que también se han evaluado las prpuestas de Suecia, con los Gripen de Saab, y de Estados Unidos, con los F-16 de Lockheed Martin. Sin embargo, desde el Gobierno afirm ...
16 rafales 3 billions US dollars
16 F-35 5 billions US dollars
One rafale's flight hour sems to be 30% cheaper than KFIR.
Colombia preselecciona al Rafale como su futuro avión de combate
Asimismo, explicó que también se han evaluado las prpuestas de Suecia, con los Gripen de Saab, y de Estados Unidos, con los F-16 de Lockheed Martin. Sin embargo, desde el Gobierno afirm ...
Enjoy Rafale Pan Masala and Kolam Rice.....
French Air Force faces a shortage of Rafale, AESA radars and pilot training hours
In 2023, the number of Rafale fighter jets in the French armed forces will drop to a low point, says the Chief of Staff of the Armée de l'air and Space.
General Stéphane Mille, Chief of Staff of the Armée de l’air et de l’espace [CEMAAE], testified on Rafale Aircraft shortages in the armed forces during his hearing in the Senate on the occasion of the end-of-year budget discussions, the report for which was just issued – two months later.
CEMAAE forecasted that the number of active fighter aircraft would drop to a low point as a consequence of the retirement of the Mirage 2000C from active duty and the export of 24 Rafales.
Thus, in 2023, “the activity of fighter pilots should be reduced to 150 hours per pilot” [the NATO standard is 180 hours, Ed.], validating the projections that were presented in the budget documents. “This is sustainable as long as it only lasts a year. However, activity should pick up again thanks in part to the replenishment of the Rafale fleet with the resumption of deliveries for the AAE,” said General Mille. As a reminder, 13 Rafale F3R will be delivered in 2023, and 42 more are planned to be ordered.
The proposed 43.9 billion euro French defence budget for 2023 will include an order for 42 multirole combat aircraft from Dassault Aviation and its partners. This is tranche 5 (30 future F4 aircraft), to which 12 replacement Rafales have been added. All deliveries are anticipated between 2027 and 2030.
“2023, therefore, be a very complicated low point for the Air and Space Force”, especially considering the fact that operational obligations will continue to be considerable. Because of this, one solution being considered is to engage in some form of simulation.
“For lack of a sufficient number of Rafale, pilots on [Mirage, Ed.] 2000 C could not switch to Rafale. This is manageable in a short time, given the progress made in simulation,” CEMAAE pointed out. “At Mont-de-Marsan [airbase, Ed.], we carry out massive simulation experiments in networks or even insert simulated aspects into real missions. This will allow us to pass the difficult deadlines of 2023 and 2024”, he said.
“The airspace is increasingly contested, not so far from our territory and our pre-positioned forces,” General Stéphane Mille told a few journalists.
“A hundred fighter planes have been shot down or destroyed over the past decade, including a significant part on the periphery of Europe”, in Syria, Libya, Donbas or even Yemen, he noted. In addition, access denial systems, such as the Russian S400 air defence systems, have multiplied in the European neighbourhood, restricting freedom of manoeuvre.
The pilot urged adherence to the goals outlined in the existing Military Programming Law (LPM), which sets a target of 185 Rafale combat aircraft for the Air Force by 2030, i.e. “a strict minimum in the current ‘environment of insecurity’.
“Today, I have a little over 100 Rafale”, and “my critical period will be between 2023 and 2025,” he said. He pointed out the need for the Air Force to “maintain a certain activity to train (its) pilots”.
“we will try to increase the activity by Rafale from 275 flight hours per year to 300 hours per year to compensate for the differential”, he said.
He said he could also explore hiring a private company to provide an adversary support role to train the pilots.
Even if the agreement is not finalised, the French Navy could lose a portion of its Rafale M fleet by 2035, owing to obsolescence. France has no plans to produce additional Rafale M aircraft, and the current fleet will require upgrades to remain operational.
In 2023, the number of Rafale fighter jets in the French armed forces will drop to a low point, says the Chief of Staff of the Armée de l'air and Space.
General Stéphane Mille, Chief of Staff of the Armée de l’air et de l’espace [CEMAAE], testified on Rafale Aircraft shortages in the armed forces during his hearing in the Senate on the occasion of the end-of-year budget discussions, the report for which was just issued – two months later.
CEMAAE forecasted that the number of active fighter aircraft would drop to a low point as a consequence of the retirement of the Mirage 2000C from active duty and the export of 24 Rafales.
Thus, in 2023, “the activity of fighter pilots should be reduced to 150 hours per pilot” [the NATO standard is 180 hours, Ed.], validating the projections that were presented in the budget documents. “This is sustainable as long as it only lasts a year. However, activity should pick up again thanks in part to the replenishment of the Rafale fleet with the resumption of deliveries for the AAE,” said General Mille. As a reminder, 13 Rafale F3R will be delivered in 2023, and 42 more are planned to be ordered.
The proposed 43.9 billion euro French defence budget for 2023 will include an order for 42 multirole combat aircraft from Dassault Aviation and its partners. This is tranche 5 (30 future F4 aircraft), to which 12 replacement Rafales have been added. All deliveries are anticipated between 2027 and 2030.
“2023, therefore, be a very complicated low point for the Air and Space Force”, especially considering the fact that operational obligations will continue to be considerable. Because of this, one solution being considered is to engage in some form of simulation.
“For lack of a sufficient number of Rafale, pilots on [Mirage, Ed.] 2000 C could not switch to Rafale. This is manageable in a short time, given the progress made in simulation,” CEMAAE pointed out. “At Mont-de-Marsan [airbase, Ed.], we carry out massive simulation experiments in networks or even insert simulated aspects into real missions. This will allow us to pass the difficult deadlines of 2023 and 2024”, he said.
Only 20% of the aircraft have an AESA radar
In addition to opening up possibilities such as interoperability, the sale of these 24 pre-owned Rafales to Greece and Croatia will also allow the AEE to complete the provision of the needed number of active antenna radars (AESA). “20% of aircraft are now equipped with AESA radars. We will have deliveries in 2023, with the aim of increasing to 50% by the end of 2023. This is one of the benefits of our Rafale exports. We have indeed invested part of the revenue from these exports on AESA radars,” explained General Mille.185 Rafales are bare minimum
The goal of supplying the Air Force with 185 Rafale combat aircraft by 2030 is “a bare minimum” for accomplishing its objectives in an increasingly contested airspace, said General Mille in February 2023 while speaking to the media.“The airspace is increasingly contested, not so far from our territory and our pre-positioned forces,” General Stéphane Mille told a few journalists.
“A hundred fighter planes have been shot down or destroyed over the past decade, including a significant part on the periphery of Europe”, in Syria, Libya, Donbas or even Yemen, he noted. In addition, access denial systems, such as the Russian S400 air defence systems, have multiplied in the European neighbourhood, restricting freedom of manoeuvre.
The pilot urged adherence to the goals outlined in the existing Military Programming Law (LPM), which sets a target of 185 Rafale combat aircraft for the Air Force by 2030, i.e. “a strict minimum in the current ‘environment of insecurity’.
“Today, I have a little over 100 Rafale”, and “my critical period will be between 2023 and 2025,” he said. He pointed out the need for the Air Force to “maintain a certain activity to train (its) pilots”.
“we will try to increase the activity by Rafale from 275 flight hours per year to 300 hours per year to compensate for the differential”, he said.
He said he could also explore hiring a private company to provide an adversary support role to train the pilots.
French Navy may also have issues with Rafale’s availability
In April 2022, Frontier India pointed out that France was considering the sale of used Rafale Marines (Rafale M) to India. If the transaction is finalised, it is possible that the French Navy will lose ten percent of its fleet. This is because Paris is planning to sell four used planes of this type to the Indian Navy at the F3R standard in order to gain an advantage over the American manufacturer Boeing, whose F/A-18 Super Hornet has not yet demonstrated its capabilities.Even if the agreement is not finalised, the French Navy could lose a portion of its Rafale M fleet by 2035, owing to obsolescence. France has no plans to produce additional Rafale M aircraft, and the current fleet will require upgrades to remain operational.
If the Rafale M would be retired from 2035 onwards , what're you going to replace it with ? I'm not aware if the FCAS has a marine component to it but even if it does , going by current predictions it's not going to materialize before 2040-45 timelines . What's the French Navy going to do in the interim ?
Besides why aren't you going in for additional Rafale M today ? What's the obsolescence issue being discussed here ? I ask coz if the MRCBF will be finalised & signed with France this year , the deliveries would commence from 2026 onwards & end around 2029. Within less than 6 yrs of that if the French themselves are retiring these very aircrafts on the grounds of obsolescence & not ordering additional numbers what message does it send to the Indian Navy ?
Please disregard maintenance , upgrades & other issues pertaining to the Rafales in the Indian Navy ( assuming we select it ) here as I don't foresee it to be a concern .
The French military are in their role when they warn the government to get the maximum.
The problem, if there is one, is only in 2035 and therefore we will start to deal with it in 2030, that is to say not for this government but for the next one. It is likely that new Rafales will be ordered. What the French Navy is looking for is perhaps a batch of Rafale N (Rafale M two-seater) 8 for India and 8 for France. The underlying demand is also that all Rafale M aircraft be upgraded to F4.2 and that 50% of them be equipped with AESA radar.
When's the replacement program for the Rafale M going to commence & what's it going to be ? FCAS or something else ?
After IAF, now Indian Navy to get Rafale fighter jets
The Indian Navy has rejected the American jet F/A-18 Super Hornet and opted for the deal with Rafale. The deal for the Rafale M is being termed as a milestone in the relations between India and France
Inde : le Rafale Marine près d'embarquer sur le porte-avions INS Vikrant
L'Inde pourrait annoncer en mars la sélection du Rafale Marine de Dassault Aviation lors de la visite d'Emmanuel Macron à New Delhi.
www.latribune.fr
For the moment, the Rafale's replacement is the NGF, which is the aircraft of the SCAF programme, of which a naval version is planned. But I don't think this programme will go through with the Germans, so I would say the replacement for the NGF.