Dassault Rafale - Updates and Discussion
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Overview of procurement process for Croatian Dassault Rafales:
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Croatian Procurement of Dassault Rafale
This article will provide an overview of Croatian acquisition process which resulted in acquisition of Rafales. It is essentially a summary of MORH (Croatian Ministry of Defense) reports. 2020 9-9-…
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I'd like to talk to you about the ergodic hypothesis.
The ergodic hypothesis, or ergodicity hypothesis, is a fundamental assumption of statistical physics according to which, at equilibrium, the mean value of a quantity calculated statistically is equal to the mean of a very large number of measurements taken over time. The first value is the one that can be calculated using statistical physics, while the second is close to what can be measured experimentally. The ergodic hypothesis is therefore fundamental for a good match between theory and experiment.
It is used in statistical physics and this is not really surprising, because we know that time generates one of the four dimensions of Minkowski space. There are phenomena where this hypothesis is valid and others where it's less certain, but it's more a characteristic of the phenomenon, a kind of regularity than a fundamental law of physics like the principle of least action.
I think that this can be applied to phenomena other than physical phenomena, for example sociological phenomena, and I propose to use it to analyse the F-35's 'Surge' capabilities and compare them with the Rafale's capabilities.
I'm going to define two types of surge: temporal surge and spatial surge, and the ergodic hypothesis will be that they are equivalent in terms of flight hours generated per aircraft.
The temporal surge consists of preparing the aircraft as much as possible before a period of intense activity in order to be able to generate as many flight hours as possible during this period.
An example of surge is described here:
The Monster Myths of the CVL Concept
We can see that the average number of flight hours generated over a surge period of activity plus the preparation period is no different from the number of flight hours generated in normal mode over the period of activity.
In fact, the US initially carried out 700 sorties in 6 days, i.e. 700/6 = 115.7 sorties per day, and then 192 sorties in one day, but with 16 hours of preparation, which brings us to 24*192/(24+16) = 115.2 sorties per day for 24 hours.
We are working in advance of the phase of the operations, which means that they can be concentrated over a shorter period of time. If we take into account the preparation period + the operational period, the number of flight hours generated per unit of time is no different from the maximum that can be achieved given the characteristics of the aircraft and the characteristics of the support set up. On the other hand, if we reduce the flight hours generated to the period of operations alone, we obtain a higher figure, which characterises the 'surge' mode.
Space surge was encountered here:
Le F-35
In this case, there was no preparation, but rather an increase in support resources by increasing the number of maintenance teams to three in order to work 24 hours a day, and by prioritising the delivery of spare parts to the Israelis. This last point has led to a drop in the number of flight hours generated by the worldwide F-35 community, with the exception of the Israelis, who have increased, while the overall average has remained unchanged or almost unchanged.
What's interesting is that we see an increase of 565%, which gives an indication of the benefits that can be expected from a time surge.
I deduce that in surge mode the F-35 can generate 102 hours of flight time in a month.
Now that we've made a few calculations, we can put them to use.
To do this, we're going to start by listing the F-35s ordered by Europeans, and those already present in Europe.
Belgium 0/34; Denmark 4/27; Finland 0/64; Germany 0/35; Greece 0/40; Italy 23/90; Netherlands 31/52; Norway 21/52; Poland 0/32 +32; Switzerland 0/36; UK 28/48.
This means that there are already 107 F-35s in Europe, and eventually 510 + possibly 32, depending on the intentions of known countries.
The same exercise can be carried out for the Rafale
France 150/225; Greece 18/24; Croatia 6/12, giving a total of 174 Rafales already in Europe and 261 in the longer term.
We can now calculate the current flight-hour production for the two aircraft, which enables us to calculate how many pilots can maintain their licences, the maximum flight-hour production and the same production in 'surge' mode.
The statistics examined by @Herciv every month show that, depending on the period, the number of flying hours per month and per aircraft varies between 14 and 18 hours and I have already argued that this number is constrained, i.e. that the USAF would like to be able to generate more flying hours but cannot. Moreover, even during the Israeli surge, production was 90,000 hours for 990 aircraft and 6 months, i.e. 15 hours per aircraft per month and 12.5 for non-Israeli aircraft, which is certainly not voluntary. So for the F-35, current flight hour production and maximum flight hour production are the same and equal to 16 hours per aircraft per month, due to the kindness of our hearts. For Surge mode, I've proposed 102 hours per month per aircraft, starting from 18 hours for the number of current flying hours (the best rate in the statistics) and increasing it by 565%.
For the Rafale, it's simpler: France recently increased its current flying hours to 300 h per year, or 25 h per month. Dassault tells us that the maximum is 1000 h per year, or 84 h per month, and specifies that in 'Surge' mode the maximum is 350 h per month.
With the 107 F-35s present in Europe, we can therefore generate 20544 flight hours, which means we can maintain 20544/180 = 114 pilots.
In the event of a crisis, assuming that we have seen it coming and have prepared the aircraft, or that we benefit from a space surge as was the case with the Israelis, we could generate 107 * 102 = 10914 flight hours for one month. After that, the number of flight hours will gradually drop to 1,712 monthly flight hours.
With the 174 Rafales in Europe, we can therefore generate 52200 flight hours, which means we can maintain 52200/180 = 290 pilots.
In the event of a crisis, assuming that we have seen it coming and have prepared the aircraft, or that we benefit from a space surge as was the case with the Israelis, we could generate 174 * 350 = 60900 flight hours for one month. After that, the number of flight hours will gradually fall to 14,616 monthly flight hours.
Eventually, the situation will become more balanced:
With the 526 F-35s in Europe, we can generate 100992 flight hours, which means we can maintain 100992/180 = 561 pilots.
In the event of a crisis, assuming that we have seen it coming and have prepared the aircraft, or that we benefit from a space surge as was the case with the Israelis, we could generate 526 * 102 = 53652 flight hours for one month. After that, the number of flight hours will gradually fall to 8,414 monthly flight hours.
With the 261 Rafales in Europe, we can therefore generate 78300 flight hours, which means we can maintain 78300/180 = 435 pilots.
In the event of a crisis, assuming that we have seen it coming and have prepared the aircraft, or that we benefit from a space surge as was the case with the Israelis, we could generate 261 * 350 = 91350 flight hours for one month. After that, the number of flight hours will gradually fall to 21924 monthly flight hours.
The Rafale fleet has a lower production than the F-35 solely in terms of current flying hours, essentially because we don't want to use up the aircraft's potential too quickly. The major drawback is that during the first month of a crisis, each Rafale pilot would have to fly 7 hours a day to make the most of the Rafale's capabilities.
Another amusing observation: Rafale production is moving towards 33 aircraft a year, whereas F-35 production would be moving towards 156 aircraft a year if it weren't for the TR3/Block4 problem combined with electrical generation/cooling capacity.
However, the 33 Rafales added each year can produce up to 33,000 flight hours in normal mode per year and, in surge mode, 1,550 flight hours in one month.
In comparison, the 156 F-35s produce 29952 flight hours in normal mode per year and, in surge mode, 15912 flight hours in one month.
While aircraft production is very different, the flight hours that can be generated are very similar.
The ergodic hypothesis, or ergodicity hypothesis, is a fundamental assumption of statistical physics according to which, at equilibrium, the mean value of a quantity calculated statistically is equal to the mean of a very large number of measurements taken over time. The first value is the one that can be calculated using statistical physics, while the second is close to what can be measured experimentally. The ergodic hypothesis is therefore fundamental for a good match between theory and experiment.
It is used in statistical physics and this is not really surprising, because we know that time generates one of the four dimensions of Minkowski space. There are phenomena where this hypothesis is valid and others where it's less certain, but it's more a characteristic of the phenomenon, a kind of regularity than a fundamental law of physics like the principle of least action.
I think that this can be applied to phenomena other than physical phenomena, for example sociological phenomena, and I propose to use it to analyse the F-35's 'Surge' capabilities and compare them with the Rafale's capabilities.
I'm going to define two types of surge: temporal surge and spatial surge, and the ergodic hypothesis will be that they are equivalent in terms of flight hours generated per aircraft.
The temporal surge consists of preparing the aircraft as much as possible before a period of intense activity in order to be able to generate as many flight hours as possible during this period.
An example of surge is described here:
The Monster Myths of the CVL Concept
We can see that the average number of flight hours generated over a surge period of activity plus the preparation period is no different from the number of flight hours generated in normal mode over the period of activity.
In fact, the US initially carried out 700 sorties in 6 days, i.e. 700/6 = 115.7 sorties per day, and then 192 sorties in one day, but with 16 hours of preparation, which brings us to 24*192/(24+16) = 115.2 sorties per day for 24 hours.
We are working in advance of the phase of the operations, which means that they can be concentrated over a shorter period of time. If we take into account the preparation period + the operational period, the number of flight hours generated per unit of time is no different from the maximum that can be achieved given the characteristics of the aircraft and the characteristics of the support set up. On the other hand, if we reduce the flight hours generated to the period of operations alone, we obtain a higher figure, which characterises the 'surge' mode.
Space surge was encountered here:
Le F-35
In this case, there was no preparation, but rather an increase in support resources by increasing the number of maintenance teams to three in order to work 24 hours a day, and by prioritising the delivery of spare parts to the Israelis. This last point has led to a drop in the number of flight hours generated by the worldwide F-35 community, with the exception of the Israelis, who have increased, while the overall average has remained unchanged or almost unchanged.
What's interesting is that we see an increase of 565%, which gives an indication of the benefits that can be expected from a time surge.
I deduce that in surge mode the F-35 can generate 102 hours of flight time in a month.
Now that we've made a few calculations, we can put them to use.
To do this, we're going to start by listing the F-35s ordered by Europeans, and those already present in Europe.
Belgium 0/34; Denmark 4/27; Finland 0/64; Germany 0/35; Greece 0/40; Italy 23/90; Netherlands 31/52; Norway 21/52; Poland 0/32 +32; Switzerland 0/36; UK 28/48.
This means that there are already 107 F-35s in Europe, and eventually 510 + possibly 32, depending on the intentions of known countries.
The same exercise can be carried out for the Rafale
France 150/225; Greece 18/24; Croatia 6/12, giving a total of 174 Rafales already in Europe and 261 in the longer term.
We can now calculate the current flight-hour production for the two aircraft, which enables us to calculate how many pilots can maintain their licences, the maximum flight-hour production and the same production in 'surge' mode.
The statistics examined by @Herciv every month show that, depending on the period, the number of flying hours per month and per aircraft varies between 14 and 18 hours and I have already argued that this number is constrained, i.e. that the USAF would like to be able to generate more flying hours but cannot. Moreover, even during the Israeli surge, production was 90,000 hours for 990 aircraft and 6 months, i.e. 15 hours per aircraft per month and 12.5 for non-Israeli aircraft, which is certainly not voluntary. So for the F-35, current flight hour production and maximum flight hour production are the same and equal to 16 hours per aircraft per month, due to the kindness of our hearts. For Surge mode, I've proposed 102 hours per month per aircraft, starting from 18 hours for the number of current flying hours (the best rate in the statistics) and increasing it by 565%.
For the Rafale, it's simpler: France recently increased its current flying hours to 300 h per year, or 25 h per month. Dassault tells us that the maximum is 1000 h per year, or 84 h per month, and specifies that in 'Surge' mode the maximum is 350 h per month.
With the 107 F-35s present in Europe, we can therefore generate 20544 flight hours, which means we can maintain 20544/180 = 114 pilots.
In the event of a crisis, assuming that we have seen it coming and have prepared the aircraft, or that we benefit from a space surge as was the case with the Israelis, we could generate 107 * 102 = 10914 flight hours for one month. After that, the number of flight hours will gradually drop to 1,712 monthly flight hours.
With the 174 Rafales in Europe, we can therefore generate 52200 flight hours, which means we can maintain 52200/180 = 290 pilots.
In the event of a crisis, assuming that we have seen it coming and have prepared the aircraft, or that we benefit from a space surge as was the case with the Israelis, we could generate 174 * 350 = 60900 flight hours for one month. After that, the number of flight hours will gradually fall to 14,616 monthly flight hours.
Eventually, the situation will become more balanced:
With the 526 F-35s in Europe, we can generate 100992 flight hours, which means we can maintain 100992/180 = 561 pilots.
In the event of a crisis, assuming that we have seen it coming and have prepared the aircraft, or that we benefit from a space surge as was the case with the Israelis, we could generate 526 * 102 = 53652 flight hours for one month. After that, the number of flight hours will gradually fall to 8,414 monthly flight hours.
With the 261 Rafales in Europe, we can therefore generate 78300 flight hours, which means we can maintain 78300/180 = 435 pilots.
In the event of a crisis, assuming that we have seen it coming and have prepared the aircraft, or that we benefit from a space surge as was the case with the Israelis, we could generate 261 * 350 = 91350 flight hours for one month. After that, the number of flight hours will gradually fall to 21924 monthly flight hours.
The Rafale fleet has a lower production than the F-35 solely in terms of current flying hours, essentially because we don't want to use up the aircraft's potential too quickly. The major drawback is that during the first month of a crisis, each Rafale pilot would have to fly 7 hours a day to make the most of the Rafale's capabilities.
Another amusing observation: Rafale production is moving towards 33 aircraft a year, whereas F-35 production would be moving towards 156 aircraft a year if it weren't for the TR3/Block4 problem combined with electrical generation/cooling capacity.
However, the 33 Rafales added each year can produce up to 33,000 flight hours in normal mode per year and, in surge mode, 1,550 flight hours in one month.
In comparison, the 156 F-35s produce 29952 flight hours in normal mode per year and, in surge mode, 15912 flight hours in one month.
While aircraft production is very different, the flight hours that can be generated are very similar.
Les forces aériennes stratégiques ont effectué un premier tir d’évaluation du missile ASMPA Rénové
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
The Strategic Air Forces have carried out a first evaluation firing of the Renovated ASMPA missile
On 21 May, the Russian Ministry of Defence announced the start of exercises based on the use of tactical nuclear weapons, "in response to provocative statements by certain Western leaders", starting with those of French President Emmanuel Macron, who has repeatedly raised the possibility of sending ground forces to Ukraine.
However, on 22 May, the Strategic Air Forces [FAS], part of the French Air & Space Force [AAE], also carried out a nuclear exercise as part of Operation Durandal, which had been suggested in a NOTAM [message to airmen] published a month earlier by the Aeronautical Information Service [SIA] of the French Civil Aviation Authority [DGAC].
The document [.pdf] referred to a "national operation" called Durandal, involving "low, medium and high altitude flights as well as refuelling, interception and missile firing operations in the Atlantic". He added that there would be "three occurrences of activation on three different days, each time for all the zones", including five temporary restricted zones [ZRT]. This NOTAM was valid for the period from 13 May to 14 June.
Normally, FAS nuclear raid simulations are called "Poker". Why was it named after Roland's sword at Roncesvalles? The fact remains that this operation gave rise to the first test firing of the ASMPA 'Renovated' nuclear-capable cruise missile [ASMPA-R]. This was announced by the French Ministry of Defence just a few hours after the operation took place.
"This operation, representative of a strategic raid, was carried out over French territory. The raid, made up of A330 Phénix tanker aircraft and Rafale Bs from the Strategic Air Forces, faced an opposing threat from air-to-air and ground-to-air assets from the French Air Force", it explained. He added that the firing of this ASMPA "Renovated", with no warhead, and its free flight had been "monitored by the missile testing resources of the French Defence Procurement Agency [DGA] from the Biscarosse, Hourtin and Quimper sites".
"A Strategic Air Forces Rafale has just successfully carried out the first flight test firing of an ASMPA 'Renovated' supersonic nuclear missile without an onboard payload. This long-planned operation gives concrete expression to the ambitions set out in the Military Planning Act for our nuclear deterrent, demonstrating its excellence and operational credibility," commented Sébastien Lecornu, the French Minister for the Armed Forces. "Congratulations to all the forces, ministry teams and industrial partners involved in the operation", he added.
The mid-life renovation programme for the ASMP-A [Air-Sol Moyenne Portée - Amélioré] cruise missile was launched in 2016, in order to deal with its obsolescence and, above all, maintain its performance in terms of accuracy and penetration capability until it is replaced by the ASN4G [Air-Sol Nucléaire de 4e Génération] by 2035.
Around five metres long and weighing 800 kg, the ASMPA-R flies at a speed of at least Mach 2, thanks to its ramjet. Fitted with a 300 kt nuclear warhead, it has a range of around 500 km. Its special feature is that it can follow several trajectories [low altitude, very low altitude or high altitude].
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
The Strategic Air Forces have carried out a first evaluation firing of the Renovated ASMPA missile
On 21 May, the Russian Ministry of Defence announced the start of exercises based on the use of tactical nuclear weapons, "in response to provocative statements by certain Western leaders", starting with those of French President Emmanuel Macron, who has repeatedly raised the possibility of sending ground forces to Ukraine.
However, on 22 May, the Strategic Air Forces [FAS], part of the French Air & Space Force [AAE], also carried out a nuclear exercise as part of Operation Durandal, which had been suggested in a NOTAM [message to airmen] published a month earlier by the Aeronautical Information Service [SIA] of the French Civil Aviation Authority [DGAC].
The document [.pdf] referred to a "national operation" called Durandal, involving "low, medium and high altitude flights as well as refuelling, interception and missile firing operations in the Atlantic". He added that there would be "three occurrences of activation on three different days, each time for all the zones", including five temporary restricted zones [ZRT]. This NOTAM was valid for the period from 13 May to 14 June.
Normally, FAS nuclear raid simulations are called "Poker". Why was it named after Roland's sword at Roncesvalles? The fact remains that this operation gave rise to the first test firing of the ASMPA 'Renovated' nuclear-capable cruise missile [ASMPA-R]. This was announced by the French Ministry of Defence just a few hours after the operation took place.
"This operation, representative of a strategic raid, was carried out over French territory. The raid, made up of A330 Phénix tanker aircraft and Rafale Bs from the Strategic Air Forces, faced an opposing threat from air-to-air and ground-to-air assets from the French Air Force", it explained. He added that the firing of this ASMPA "Renovated", with no warhead, and its free flight had been "monitored by the missile testing resources of the French Defence Procurement Agency [DGA] from the Biscarosse, Hourtin and Quimper sites".
"A Strategic Air Forces Rafale has just successfully carried out the first flight test firing of an ASMPA 'Renovated' supersonic nuclear missile without an onboard payload. This long-planned operation gives concrete expression to the ambitions set out in the Military Planning Act for our nuclear deterrent, demonstrating its excellence and operational credibility," commented Sébastien Lecornu, the French Minister for the Armed Forces. "Congratulations to all the forces, ministry teams and industrial partners involved in the operation", he added.
The mid-life renovation programme for the ASMP-A [Air-Sol Moyenne Portée - Amélioré] cruise missile was launched in 2016, in order to deal with its obsolescence and, above all, maintain its performance in terms of accuracy and penetration capability until it is replaced by the ASN4G [Air-Sol Nucléaire de 4e Génération] by 2035.
Around five metres long and weighing 800 kg, the ASMPA-R flies at a speed of at least Mach 2, thanks to its ramjet. Fitted with a 300 kt nuclear warhead, it has a range of around 500 km. Its special feature is that it can follow several trajectories [low altitude, very low altitude or high altitude].
Saudi Arabia Eyes Full Partnership On Future Fighter
LONDON—Saudi Arabia is seeking full partner status as it decides what future combat aircraft program to join, with a decision possible within months.
The kingdom aims to be “an equal partner” in any sixth-generation fighter program, Maj. Gen. Hamed Alamri, director of Joint Chiefs of Staff and chairman of the Committee on Future Capabilities of the Armed Forces for the Saudi Air Force, said May 21. “Saudi Arabia seeks to become a global innovator, not just a customer,” he told an event at the Royal Aeronautical Society here.
Saudi Arabia could still decide on the path forward this year, Alamri told Aerospace DAILY, adding the country has several options on how to progress.
Coupled with that decision is one on a fighter procurement for a system to be introduced more near term, he said. Saudi Arabia needs to replace some of its aging fighters, including older Boeing F-15s. The country is in talks with France, the UK and the U.S. about buying fighters to replace those it plans to phase out. Candidates for the near-term purchase include the Boeing F-15EX, Dassault Rafale and Eurofighter Typhoon. The country is also looking to upgrade its existing Typhoons so they will more seamlessly lead into the sixth-generation fighter.
Alamri said the decision on the near-term purchase is likely to be closely linked to the longer-term platform decision. Saudi’s timeline for a sixth-generation fighter to be fielded sometime after 2040 would support several ongoing efforts, he noted.
The country, he said, is a strong partner for the development of a future fighter given its access to resources, its geopolitical importance and a young workforce. Some potential partners have expressed concern, though, that Saudi Arabia may lack the technical prowess to fully support such an ambitious undertaking.
Saudi Arabia has embarked on an aggressive push to upgrade its defense industrial capacity, with a target of spending about half the country’s military budget locally. The sixth-generation fighter program is a central part of realizing that ambition.
My personal guess is low altitude since the Mach 8 AS4NG has a requirement for "much greater than" 1,000km, which is likely at high altitude given Mach 8. I doubt that would be possible at Mach 8 if the ASMP-A's 500km range was at high altitude.
Former procurement official joins MBDA as France eyes new munitions
MBDA is prime contractor on the ASMPA nuclear-tipped missile, due for replacement by the ASN4G, or air-to-surface, fourth-generation nuclear weapon, in the 2030s.
www.defensenews.com
It is useless to modify the pic : there are plenty pics of ASMP-A available, speciallyfor lower distance.The ASMPA-R is hidden in the photo from the MoD
SA to be an equal partner ?
On a financial point of view, why not.
On a technical aspect it's unacceptable and undeserved.
Add to that the strong no way position of Japan.
Mach 8 ? let's see....My personal guess is low altitude since the Mach 8 AS4NG has a requirement for "much greater than" 1,000km, which is likely at high altitude given Mach 8. I doubt that would be possible at Mach 8 if the ASMP-A's 500km range was at high altitude.
Former procurement official joins MBDA as France eyes new munitions
MBDA is prime contractor on the ASMPA nuclear-tipped missile, due for replacement by the ASN4G, or air-to-surface, fourth-generation nuclear weapon, in the 2030s.
AS4NG wil be more than significantly bigger than ASMP-A, so more fuel, and will use a scramjet when ASMP-A use a (now) quite old tech ramjet.
500s range at low-altitude is really impressive.My personal guess is low altitude since the Mach 8 AS4NG has a requirement for "much greater than" 1,000km, which is likely at high altitude given Mach 8. I doubt that would be possible at Mach 8 if the ASMP-A's 500km range was at high altitude.
Former procurement official joins MBDA as France eyes new munitions
MBDA is prime contractor on the ASMPA nuclear-tipped missile, due for replacement by the ASN4G, or air-to-surface, fourth-generation nuclear weapon, in the 2030s.
The nuclear warhead only weighs 140kg though, which helps.
It has to be carried by a Rafale so it can't be that much bigger and at Mach 8 it will burn fuel much faster than ASMP-A, hence why I think ASMP-A's stated 500km range is likely at low altitude. High altitude would likely make it too easy to intercept, although given the S-400's current performance....
In full low altitude it's probably more 200km.
all depend of its RCS. I think a special focus has been made on it, on shapes and materials.
And it is a quite small missile.