Everything that's being done is following a strategy. What you and I know will be completely different from what the auto CEOs and other relevant people know. So what you see in the media is a game being played to keep foreign powers guessing.
China is not constrained like we are, they are in a position today that allows them to show the finger to anybody and everybody and keep going. We are not there at all.
What's more interesting and more concrete is what you see happening at home. Take LPG vs natural gas for cooking for instance. GoI has a plan to withdraw LPG almost entirely from the country. That's why all cities are now getting piped gas using the cleaner and safer natural gas.
Delhi
Piped cooking gas to everyone in Delhi-NCR in 5 years: IGL
Mumbai
70% Mumbaikars to have piped gas connection by 2022: Pradhan
Bangalore
57,000 Homes to get piped natural gas by year-end
You can expect that by 2030, at least the households of tier 1 and 2 cities will be LPG-free. Although LPG forms a very miniscule amount in our overall oil imports, but the writing's on the wall already.
What China is doing boisterously, we are doing quietly.
Same with EV. We have a policy. But what we have been playing with is announcing the goals of the policy. Our friends in the Middle East do not like our attempts at going all electric, so we announce a big plan (the goal) and then take it back quickly, and then raise it again. It's simply theatrics, gives us a negotiation advantage with these 'friends'. What's happening behind the scenes is obviously something else entirely, and those who need to know, know this. And they know this due to something called regulation. GOI has skipped Bharat Stage V and directly moved to Stage VI, which raises the cost of IC engines drastically. And the new FAME policy is more electric friendly with less taxes and more incentives. Even in this case, the writing's already on the wall. Even if I don't make the policy goals public, I can ensure people are buying electric over IC because it makes financial sense for the individual, and that's what's going to be happening pretty soon.
If you're out to buy a Honda City, if a petrol/diesel Honda City is more expensive than an electric Honda City in terms of purchase price, running and maintenance, which one would you choose? Why would I need to announce a policy goals when things can be done quietly? This is in fact much more scary than simply announcing the goal right from the start.
BS VI
What will the move to Bharat Stage VI standards entail?
FAME-II
Govt notifies FAME-II scheme for clean mobility; to be rolled out from April - ET Auto
You might see some good discounts if you're in the market for BS IV compliant cars this Diwali or even the end of the FY.
Same with our renewable power. We have gone so quiet about it, but every year renewable power projects are getting bigger and bigger. Hell, even Ambani wants to slowly start selling off his oil business in the long term and move into other industries.
Quoting Falcon:
There is a lovely movie The Illusionist - quite boring and at times, frustrating & exasperating; you start getting bored as you watch it. And when the end comes, everything falls into place and the beauty of the plot is simply amazing, the planning and execution - exquisite.
Similarly, our overall approach is too boring, mundane, unimaginative and lacking any attraction. Best strategies are always that ways. Random events, actions and variables which keep making an appearance but are not correlated.
You and I do not need to know the govt strategy because it doesn't affect it in anyway. All we can do is wait and watch for everything to fall in place.
