Its all the same resolution more or less, the huge file is just a very large area to show the location in relation to everything else I think?
India - Pakistan Standoff 2019
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Its all the same resolution more or less, the huge file is just a very large area to show the location in relation to everything else I think?
This is somewhat hard to digest.
Why will IAF bomb areas near to population? The bombs did go off. Why will they do that? If even 10 civilians would have been killed, it would have become a political and diplomatic nightmare for India. I think IAF messed up something royally. Remember, this was Pakistan and NOT LoC or Kashmir.
The reference reflectivity of these roof areas have noticeably changed in contrast from PRE to POST (if you reference it to the area inbetween 1) and 2):
Notice how there is not such variation in other parts of the roofing (if this is some random effect).
3 is a missing feature, though could be due to the different angle (and thus apparent reflectivity).
If you could get a sample of previous pictures of this level of detail/zoom (say few months before etc), we can check for the base variation in the roof seasonally (to account for anything else going on picture wise). If this stands out in contrast to even that....there is likely evidence here.
Like @Paro said, roof replacement of ingress areas would be the FIRST thing done in a cover up....well before sanitizing completely inside.
SPICE is a VERY precise kit (3m CEP), there is no doubt about that. It is indeed possible to surgically target something 100-200m off the actual target using SPICE, so I don't think there was any risk of collateral damage .
Regarding civilians, this is another reason why I think GoI/IAF would never want to hit that structure. What if there were children in that seminary? Even the CIA in its drone strikes does extensive real-time evaluation of collateral damage before executing the strike. India had no access to anything like that. It would have been MUCH easier for Pakistan to turn the guns of the international community to India, by showing images/videos of dead/injured children and people and allowing full access to International Media. Pakistan would've claimed that India targeted innocent civilians including children, regardless if it was JeM camp, giving India very limited breathing space.
The only reason Pakistan is not allowing anyone near the seminary is so that nobody can cross-reference the seminary and prove that it was indeed a JeM camp...which goes against Pakistan's CURRENT narrative.
I'm guessing the second photo is the latest one. The northeast corner of the roof has been replaced for sure.The reference reflectivity of these roof areas have noticeably changed in contrast from PRE to POST (if you reference it to the area inbetween 1) and 2):
Notice how there is not such variation in other parts of the roofing (if this is some random effect).
3 is a missing feature, though could be due to the different angle (and thus apparent reflectivity).
If you could get a sample of previous pictures of this level of detail/zoom (say few months before etc), we can check for the base variation in the roof seasonally (to account for anything else going on picture wise). If this stands out in contrast to even that....there is likely evidence here.
Like @Paro said, roof replacement of ingress areas would be the FIRST thing done in a cover up....well before sanitizing completely inside.
Look at the contour line on the right side of the roof. There is an uneven break between 2 asbestos sheets. That is because it's been replaced and the size wasn't exactly cut properly. it was placed in a hurry.
Man you talk sense sometimes but then you insert elections into everything and that makes it all look like joke. Also the clever insertion of this is wrong that is wrong, where is evidence however you don't provide a thing about what you claim wrong.
Elections maybe alien thing for you since your army rules half of the time but elections here are normal, every six month we have an election and some important state is going into polls. This government didn't even bother to offer soaps like every other do in election budget, they even removed railways budget as it was one of the most politically motivated budget and was used to make feel good stories.
You people really need to give up your obsession with elections otherwise you'll never be well, it's worst then a broken record unless of course
"No irrefutable evidence"
"Elections"
Are the keywords you are pushing trying to slide in ISPR narrative by creating doubts and of course the great election theory.
Yeah these are just what stood out to me at first glance....from what I have worked with albedo in imagery....things don't change so drastically w.r.t each other on something consistent).
But I would like to see what the variation level was in general before the strike over span of months etc.
Apparently the pre-photo is from april 2018 (on google maps).
POST is feb 27th this year.
If we can get some pre-photos at various other points of 2018 (or even 2017, as long as nothing major construction wise was being done), it would be good reference.
I have merely put forward a possible explanation, going by Occam's razor. If it makes you feel uncomfortable, you're welcome to put forward a better explanation that sits well with the evidence.
BJP politicians ARE using the strike for point-scoring and propaganda to garner votes. But of course I don't mean that the strike was SOLELY meant for the elections. If the GoI had no choice but to take action, as it had given itself no room to breath because of the hyping up of the 2016 cross-border raids. India needed to respond, in a way better than 2016. If two birds can be killed with one stone, why not?
Regarding some stuff that I claimed was wrong:
1. I did link the latest imagery of Februray 27th. Here it is again:
Images - India, Pakistan Airstrike | European Space Imaging
2. I cannot conclusively prove the non-existence of a 2000lbs penetrator in service with the IAF (I assume the IAF wouldn't entertain my request to go through their inventory). Therefore I asked for the proof of its existence. Similarly, I cannot conclusively prove no loss of life because of the strike, therefore I ask for the contrary.
3. The data for BLU-116 is available below. It has penetration capability of upto 12 feet, twice what would have been required at Balakot (considering penetration of 3x roofs of 2 feet of reinforced concrete each).
BLU-116 Advanced Unitary Penetrator [AUP] GBU-24 C/B (USAF) / GBU-24 D/B (Navy)
BLU-116 Advanced Unitary Penetrator [AUP] GBU-24 C/B (USAF) / GBU-24 D/B (Navy)
4. The author himself bases the entire argument on an 80 kg explosive. A BLU-116, taken as reference for the calculations by the author, has 109 kg of explosives (as mentioned in the links above). Considering that 4x such weapons are being claimed to have hit the structure (4x holes), that sums up to 436 kg of total explosive. This number significantly offsets the overpressure calculations made by the author, which were on the borderline of the 14 kPa figure.
5. The fuze used with the BLU-116 APU is FMU-157/B or FMU-159/B. It is a part of the penetrator and is agnostic to the guidance kit being used. Therefore the author's claim is not correct that the SPICE-2000 itself had the floor-counting fuze.
FMU-157/B Hard Target Smart Fuze [HTSF]
TonyRogers.com | FMU-159/B Hard Target Smart Fuze
I am taking down this post (Hiding).... this can be picked by anyone who access the site.... if needed will restore
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India won't escalate situation with Pakistan, but won't take Pulwama as its destiny: Sushma Swaraj - Times of India ►
Whenever Sushma Swaraj opens her mouth, its always a tone of surrender.
Whenever Sushma Swaraj opens her mouth, its always a tone of surrender.
Honestly, I have no idea what goals have been achieved.
We haven't avenged the deaths of the Pulwama attack.
We haven't deterred Pakistan from any future attacks.
The impact of Balakot strike was quickly neutralized.
We have been beaten in the perception war.
So nah
Mod edit: Fake Picture
these are the coordinates on google maps
34.432940, 73.324438
Before
After
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