India vs China - War Gaming Scenarios : Related News , Updates , Discussions & Analysis .

[vstol Jockey]

Can our Rafale-I take on J-20B(if they have WS-15 supercrusing engines)? Same question for MKI(post upgrade), or do we need Su-57M to take on PLAAF and J-20 in particular?

supercruising against an aircraft equipped with IRST is a very bad idea. The supercruise increases the temp of the skin by about 10*C as aresult the so called stealth fighter becomes unstealthy. Regarding a dual between J-20 and rafale. I am of the opinion that Rafale will come out victorious 10 out 10 times due to its extremely good EW suite and ability to target passively and also thru cooperative targeting.

 

[Herciv]

supercruising against an aircraft equipped with IRST is a very bad idea. The supercruise increases the temp of the skin by about 10*C as aresult the so called stealth fighter becomes unstealthy. Regarding a dual between J-20 and rafale. I am of the opinion that Rafel will come out victorious 10 out 10 times due to its extremely good EW suite and ability to target passively and also thru cooperative targeting.

And also due to its much smaller sizes. Smaller size give a big advantage in a passive vs passive hunt. And rafale is twice as small as a J-20.

The first to detect and obtain a fire solution will always be the smallest, at identical matrix sensor technology of course.

 

[Herciv]

Correction : rafale is bigger than J-20 in height, but smaller in all-out size by 25%. Rafale surface is 45 m2, J-20 is 78 m2. When there's an asymetric flight level J-20 will be seen at a much greater range.

 

[randomradio]

Had we signed the deal in 2014, by 2024-25 we would have started to induct them in service. Even an uncooked Su-57M would eat a J-20 alive. Look at this image:

View attachment 26708

Source of this image: India’s quest for advanced stealth fighter yet to emerge from doldrums | India News - Times of India

Anyways, since we have already opted out of joint-venture, there is no point beating a dead-horse. We have to look how IAF can counter PLAAF. More Rafale, MKI UPG and our IADS combined are good enough to thrash the Chinese now.

In future, with Tejas MK2 and AMCA our force structure should improve even further.

I don't think you have understood the problem. The engine is not ready. The Su-57 itself needs to undergo 2 years of testing with the new engine before it can be delivered to the Russians. Even if we signed up in 2010, we still need 2-3 years after RuAF gets their jet.

Even if we started FGFA in 2014, we cannot get the jet until the Russians introduce it first, and they need until 2027. Then, we need 2-3 years, so 2028-29 or so until we get ours.

The alternative is we go for Su-57M after the Russians finish state trials in 2025, then that's 3 years of MKIzation and 3 years before delivery, so 2031-32.

What Jha said above is what I also believe, if a war does happen, it will happen during our election period, either pre or post. Since Modi is very likely to get re-elected, the Chinese can attack during the very busy campaign period. If the Chinese win a limited war against India, then Modi can potentially lose elections. Then anytime between March 2024 and March 2025, they can attack Taiwan. A victory over India will scare the Taiwanese as well, so they may vote pro-China groups into power. Either case, there's no Su-57. Even if we signed a deal in 2000, we wouldn't be fighting a war in 2023-24 with the Su-57. It's a jet that still doesn't exist.

The JV is still active, it's not been cancelled. The final decision is still pending and won't be resolved until 2025 at the minimum.

Unlike exercises with other countries, when India goes to Russia, we do not take our equipment, we use their equipment. Their rifles, their tanks, their fighters and their tactics ballistic missiles.

This is their way of marketing. Used to work. Not so much now.

But the point being IAF flew Su35 and Su57 both. If both weren't bought, it's because they weren't better than our Su30MKI in performance. The year our guys flew Su35, same year our guys blew up things with Iskanders and S400. S400 impressed us and we bought it.

The IAF has never flown the Su-57.

 

[randomradio]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1629703984322691073

If true,india is really scared of fighting china.

There's nothing special about the balloons, as long as they don't enter territorial airspace.

They are just ISR devices. Due to its higher altitude compared to other forms of ISR, it's particularly useful for sustained surveillance. Otherwise, it's no different from an AWACS flying along the border.

 

[randomradio]

Swarm drones capable of attacking individual targets are something we have inducted as of 3 years ago.

We even have drones capable of entering buildings to kill soldiers, 3 years ago.

All Israeli stuff. Now we have our own.

Correction : rafale is bigger than J-20 in height, but smaller in all-out size by 25%. Rafale surface is 45 m2, J-20 is 78 m2. When there's an asymetric flight level J-20 will be seen at a much greater range.

Altitude as well. Of course, acceleration too. Although it all depends on which version we are talking about. The J-20 is also WIP.

 

[Rajput Lion]

supercruising against an aircraft equipped with IRST is a very bad idea. The supercruise increases the temp of the skin by about 10*C as aresult the so called stealth fighter becomes unstealthy. Regarding a dual between J-20 and rafale. I am of the opinion that Rafale will come out victorious 10 out 10 times due to its extremely good EW suite and ability to target passively and also thru cooperative targeting.

What about Su-30MKI vs J-20(The current one also the upgraded one)? Does it have a chance against J-20, as per you?

 

[Rajput Lion]

I don't think you have understood the problem. The engine is not ready. The Su-57 itself needs to undergo 2 years of testing with the new engine before it can be delivered to the Russians. Even if we signed up in 2010, we still need 2-3 years after RuAF gets their jet.

Even if we started FGFA in 2014, we cannot get the jet until the Russians introduce it first, and they need until 2027. Then, we need 2-3 years, so 2028-29 or so until we get ours.

The alternative is we go for Su-57M after the Russians finish state trials in 2025, then that's 3 years of MKIzation and 3 years before delivery, so 2031-32.

What Jha said above is what I also believe, if a war does happen, it will happen during our election period, either pre or post. Since Modi is very likely to get re-elected, the Chinese can attack during the very busy campaign period. If the Chinese win a limited war against India, then Modi can potentially lose elections. Then anytime between March 2024 and March 2025, they can attack Taiwan. A victory over India will scare the Taiwanese as well, so they may vote pro-China groups into power. Either case, there's no Su-57. Even if we signed a deal in 2000, we wouldn't be fighting a war in 2023-24 with the Su-57. It's a jet that still doesn't exist.

The base Su-57 is getting delivered from 2020 onwards to the RuAF. We could have expedited delivery of Su-57E, had we wanted. Anyways, in my view, we're past that point. So this discussion is quite futile.

The JV is still active, it's not been cancelled. The final decision is still pending and won't be resolved until 2025 at the minimum.

?? Didn't Ajit Doval went to Moscow to inform Russians that we're leaving this JV? Apparently he informed that India may join the program in a later date or buy some off the shelf Su-57, once the program matures and Russians induct the jet themselves.

The IAF has never flown the Su-57.

Absolutely correct. One of the reasons IAF was not happy was that Russians weren't giving them enough access to the program. I am not too sure about IAF flying Su-35S as well. But perhaps they were briefed about it separately.

 

[randomradio]

The base Su-57 is getting delivered from 2020 onwards to the RuAF. We could have expedited delivery of Su-57E, had we wanted. Anyways, in my view, we're past that point. So this discussion is quite futile.

?? Didn't Ajit Doval went to Moscow to inform Russians that we're leaving this JV? Apparently he informed that India may join the program in a later date or buy some off the shelf Su-57, once the program matures and Russians induct the jet themselves.

Absolutely correct. One of the reasons IAF was not happy was that Russians weren't giving them enough access to the program. I am not too sure about IAF flying Su-35S as well. But perhaps they were briefed about it separately.

E is irrelevant. It's better to throw money at more Rafales instead. It's not Doval's job to communicate that though. The JV desicion is still pending the completion of the program.

Yeah, haven't heard of a Su-35 test flight either, but we have flown the Mig-35.

 

[Rajput Lion]

E is irrelevant. It's better to throw money at more Rafales instead.

I agree with this. We don't want or need Su-57E. Doesn't fit our doctrine at all. But more Rafales are a separate requirement. 126 minimum are absolutely must. Su-57M/FGFA is going to be our tip of the spear if we ever procure them. It's in a totally different class.

It's not Doval's job to communicate that though. The JV desicion is still pending the completion of the program.

Gov. made a committee headed by AM S. Varthaman to decide the fate of FGFA. That committee gave the project green light in mid-2017. But around mid-2018 India told Russia to go ahead alone. That is literally dropping out of the project. How you are saying that FGFA project is still on is beyond me?! At best Su-57M or Su-57MKI will be directly bought. That's about it.

We are going full-steam on our full-on indigenous VLO fighter AMCA. And it is the right way.

Yeah, haven't heard of a Su-35 test flight either, but we have flown the Mig-35.

Even that Mig-35 wasn't a fully matured plane.

 

[_Anonymous_]

China’s Invasion of Taiwan – Opportunity for India

PLA has made itself ten feet tall with the procurement (stealing) of modern hardware, long-range missiles, stealthier aircraft, modern and capable ships. However, that is not sufficient. Artificial Intelligence has its place and importance in future wars, but the man behind the machine is not ready.

chanakyaforum.com

The above article is from early 2022.

India Beware Of Copycat Chinese Air Force

It is amply clear that just like any nation, India and its enemies have both advantages and disadvantages in their systems and equipment. Now it is up to India how it takes advantage of the enemy’s vulnerabilities while overcoming its own.

chanakyaforum.com

 

[_Anonymous_]

Aksai Chin: Is History Repeating Itself?

by Claude Arpi. On February 10, China Daily Global announced Tibet’s plan “to upgrade the regional rail network”. The Development and Reform Commission of the Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR) released a three-phase development plan for the railway on the Tibetan plateau: “The TAR plans to have...

chanakyaforum.com

 

[_Anonymous_]

Sino-Indian War: Are We Prepared?

by Maj Gen (Dr) Rajan Kochhar, VSM (Retd). Is the Indian Armed Forces prepared to take on both eventualities i.e. a limited war or a fully fledged war, or a war over two fronts as being spoken of?

chanakyaforum.com

 

[randomradio]

Gov. made a committee headed by AM S. Varthaman to decide the fate of FGFA. That committee gave the project green light in mid-2017. But around mid-2018 India told Russia to go ahead alone. That is literally dropping out of the project. How you are saying that FGFA project is still on is beyond me?! At best Su-57M or Su-57MKI will be directly bought. That's about it.

No, it was more like, "We are interested, but you guys finish up first and then we will decide after" sort of deal.

The fact that the committee decided we needed FGFA even after AMCA was reconfigured shows that we need something of the sort. So it's still an option. The other 2 options are license production of 6 squadrons and just outright purchase of 3 squadrons.

I guess what we will choose just depends on how much time the IAF believes they are willing to wait. FGFA work requires 8 years without any slippages, which is practically guaranteed, whereas MKIzation requires only 3 years. The former will take 11 years for delivery at the minimum and the latter will take 6 years.

We have suo moto decided on the cancellation of FGFA on our own simply due to the fact that we are biased towards AMCA, by overestimating it, whereas the committee has decided that FGFA and AMCA are both necessary, as is MRFA. So this the IAF's official stance.

 

[_Anonymous_]

As usual we get wonky analysis. OTOH we're told the project is on since we haven't communicated our cancellation of the deal merely stepped aside willing to take a look when the technology has matured.OTOH we're informed the FGFA has been cancelled at our end.

Well what's it? Either it has been cancelled or it isn't! If it has been cancelled there must be some documentary evidence for it.

The plausible scenario given the ever delayed T/L of the LCA Mk-2 & consequently the AMCA Mk-1 seems to be we'd go in for the Su-57M in 2-3 squadrons as soon as it's received it's operational clearance with the Izdeliye-30 engines.

Given the AMCA Mk-2 T/L depends on when does the Mk-1 version make first flight besides selection of a partner to jointly develop the turbofan , we can be sure we'd probably go in for either additional number of squadrons off the shelf which seems unlikely or we'd go in for ToT & MII which depends on the numbers we want to induct, which would be the FGFA .

But by the looks of it, the more nos we induct the bigger the impact on the AMCA project. However if the induction of the AMCA Mk-2 goes to 2045 or thereabouts which seems likely the way the project & the ones before it are progressing there's a good chance we'd bite the bullet & opt for ToT & MII in numbers.

Of course this also depends to a great extent on how these FAs perform assuming we get those 2-3 squadrons off the shelf.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

As usual we have wonky analysis. OTOH we're told the project is on since we haven't communicated our cancellation of the deal merely stepped aside willing to take a look when the technology had matured.

OTOH we're informed the FGFA has been cancelled at our end. Well what's it? Either it has been cancelled or it isn't! If it has been cancelled there must be some documentary evidence for it.

The plausible scenario given the ever delayed T/L of the Mk-2 & consequently the AMCA Mk-1 seems to be we'd go in for the Su-57M in 2-3 squadrons as soon as it's received it's operational clearance with the Izdeliye-30 engines.

Given the AMCA Mk-2 T/L depends on when does the Mk-1 version make first flight besides selection of a partner to jointly develop the turbofan , we can be sure we'd probably go in for either additional number of squadrons off the shelf which seems unlikely or we'd go in for ToT & MII which depends on the numbers we want to induct.

But by the looks of it, the more we induct the bigger the impact on the AMCA project. However if the induction of the Mk-2 goes to 2045 or thereabouts which seems likely the way the project & the ones before it are progressing there's a good chance we'd bite the bullet & opt for ToT & MII in numbers. Of course this also depends to a great extent on how these FAs perform assuming we get those 2-3 squadrons off the shelf.

So what happens to the Additional
Rafale orders

If we buy More Rafales , which looks more likely given the Infrastructure created ,then where will FGFA fit in

AMCA is a Certainty

No, it was more like, "We are interested, but you guys finish up first and then we will decide after" sort of deal.

The fact that the committee decided we needed FGFA even after AMCA was reconfigured shows that we need something of the sort. So it's still an option. The other 2 options are license production of 6 squadrons and just outright purchase of 3 squadrons.

I guess what we will choose just depends on how much time the IAF believes they are willing to wait. FGFA work requires 8 years without any slippages, which is practically guaranteed, whereas MKIzation requires only 3 years. The former will take 11 years for delivery at the minimum and the latter will take 6 years.

We have suo moto decided on the cancellation of FGFA on our own simply due to the fact that we are biased towards AMCA, by overestimating it, whereas the committee has decided that FGFA and AMCA are both necessary, as is MRFA. So this the IAF's official stance.

When will All of this Happen

What happened to MRFA

If everything is meant for the future , what about Present Capabilities and Challenges

 

[randomradio]

China’s Invasion of Taiwan – Opportunity for India

PLA has made itself ten feet tall with the procurement (stealing) of modern hardware, long-range missiles, stealthier aircraft, modern and capable ships. However, that is not sufficient. Artificial Intelligence has its place and importance in future wars, but the man behind the machine is not ready.

chanakyaforum.com

Securing the first island chain would give enlarged maritime defense depth to PLAN. Therefore, securing Taiwan under the Chinese jurisdiction has become highly relevant and vital for CCP.

The very existence of Taiwan destroys China’s claim to be a very successful model and threatens Xi Jinping’s lifetime Presidency dream.

Yep. Taiwan is an existential threat to China, and the island acts as a major barricade to China's aspirations at sea.

Xi Jinping has taken the second option and surrounded himself with the yes-men.

It's an age-old problem solved by bringing in someone competent for the main war effort and replacing him once he's done. He'll get a nice medal and bungalow out of it.

In the event of an invasion of Taiwan, the Chinese commanders would be reluctant to spare them for Tibet.

Nah. Those 2 units are meant to be used in the WTC. The Chinese have 3 more corps in the CTC they can use in Taiwan, along with at least 1 more in the south.

PLA doesn’t have a “unified information technology system standard.”

Don't believe that's a problem now.

Unfortunately, Xi can’t find qualified leaders for fighting a modern war.

Yep. Could be a problem.

Beidou is heavily dependent on the ground control centres. If the ground centres are destroyed, BDS is out. GPS doesn’t have this limitation. China is trying to overcome this lacuna in the system by data linking the satellites and enhancing their survivability.

Will likely be solved before they go to war.

BeiDou Completes Inter-Satellite Link Testing; Only GNSS with this Accuracy-Improving Feature

The China Satellite Navigation Office (CSNO) announced completion of two years of testing of BeiDou inter-satellite links, an innovative feature of the GNSS tha

insidegnss.com

Since ground stations in China cannot continuously track and control all BDS satellites — the system lacks a fully global ground control network — the inter-satellite links help establish communication among them. Instructions sent by the control center to one satellite in the constellation are transmitted to all.

The PLA commanders are inexperienced, and their supposedly advanced technological capabilities have never been tested in real combat situations. Heart to heart, PLA knows, playing red force and blue force on the computer is one thing, but in the real world, you can’t buy second life with bonus points.

Even we have to be humble about this. It's not like we have used networking and advanced ISR capabilities in a war either.

Therefore, if China makes the mistake of invading Taiwan, India should not make the mistake of restraint and non-interference. Every Indian military exercise should have a scenario presented and practiced where Indian forces invade China. After all, it could be an opportunity of the millennia, and India doesn’t have the luxury to miss it.

We are gonna do jackshit about that anytime this decade. We will fight only if the Chinese attack us. But what we should do is "peacefully" push into areas we are confident of holding when China's busy elsewhere. Basically a reverse of what we have experienced in the past. But I doubt the govt has any intention of doing that either. Whatever can be done can only be done by Modi's successor. Modi's main fight is against poverty, which remains the greatest security threat to India even today.

More opportunities will present themselves in the future when China gets busy with SoKo, Japan and the SCS. And we will also be a far more powerful nation by then, particularly economically.

 

[randomradio]

India Beware Of Copycat Chinese Air Force

It is amply clear that just like any nation, India and its enemies have both advantages and disadvantages in their systems and equipment. Now it is up to India how it takes advantage of the enemy’s vulnerabilities while overcoming its own.

chanakyaforum.com

Among them, there are eleven Su-30SM multirole fighters. Six of them were shot down by SAMs or during air combat.

It's a major problem.

On the other hand, India’s arch-rival China has the second-largest fleet of Flankers at about 300.

300? No. 700-800 in all. Half of them with AESA radars and the PL-15, perhaps more advanced missiles as well.

Not counting some 600 J-10s, half of them with AESAs too.

Even if the quality doesn’t match up to the Chinese propaganda, just the overwhelming numbers make up for quality, giving them regional dominance.

He claims 300 Flankers and J-10s each are overwhelming. Then what will he think about 700-800 Flankers today, 200-300 J-20As over the next year and then 200-300 J-20Bs extra in the following few years?

Even the USAF will struggle against this fleet.

 

[randomradio]

When will All of this Happen

What happened to MRFA

If everything is meant for the future , what about Present Capabilities and Challenges

As stated many times before, don't expect anything major to happen until after 2030. This decade will only be spent on signing deals, and they will all deliver only in the 2030s, whether it's MRFA, FGFA, LCA Mk2 or AMCA. This decade, we scored some Rafales, and we will get LCA Mk1As. Hopefully some more upgraded aircraft like MKI MLU and Jaguar DARIN III.

AMCA is definitely happening, so is LCA Mk2.

MRFA will happen as usual. RFP will go out in a few months and it will quickly hit the negotiations wall running, I'm hoping the entire thing is wrapped up well before 2027. Any attempt at more Rafale GTGs is extremely unlikely as long as MRFA proceeds smoothly. Only a failure will result in a repeat GTG order, perhaps of 4 squadrons.

Of course, a Chinese invasion of either India or Taiwan could result in knee-jerk imports from France, the US and/or Russia. 2 squadrons each of the Rafale, F-35 and/or Su-57 are likely. Perhaps more Rafales.

As per the IAF, FGFA and AMCA are necessary. As per DRDO, AMCA is enough. So the govt's gonna allow the IAF to choose. The IAF has to figure out if AMCA is enough or an order of Su-57 is also necessary or if a proper J-XX challenger (FGFA Mk2) has to be developed, or a combination of all three. And that answer is currently with the PLAAF. Unlike before, India is now reacting to Chinese purchases, a tactic Pakistan uses against India. The earlier plan (from 2007-10) was for the IAF to begin replacing the MKIs with FGFA from 2030 onwards. That disappeared once they figured out by 2014 that the MKI has more life than that, which is why even the MLU plans were delayed by a decade.

It's possible that to stop any deal with Russia, the Americans will offer the NGAD. The Americans have very likely already started the development of the NGAD successor as per their Digital Century Series plan, where they introduce a new design every 15 years. If NGAD happens, then we will need only 20-30 jets insead of 150-200 FGFAs. The USAF plans on getting way lesser than 100.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

As stated many times before, don't expect anything major to happen until after 2030. This decade will only be spent on signing deals, and they will all deliver only in the 2030s, whether it's MRFA, FGFA, LCA Mk2 or AMCA. This decade, we scored some Rafales, and we will get LCA Mk1As. Hopefully some more upgraded aircraft like MKI MLU and Jaguar DARIN III.

AMCA is definitely happening, so is LCA Mk2.

MRFA will happen as usual. RFP will go out in a few months and it will quickly hit the negotiations wall running, I'm hoping the entire thing is wrapped up well before 2027. Any attempt at more Rafale GTGs is extremely unlikely as long as MRFA proceeds smoothly. Only a failure will result in a repeat GTG order, perhaps of 4 squadrons.

Of course, a Chinese invasion of either India or Taiwan could result in knee-jerk imports from France, the US and/or Russia. 2 squadrons each of the Rafale, F-35 and/or Su-57 are likely. Perhaps more Rafales.

As per the IAF, FGFA and AMCA are necessary. As per DRDO, AMCA is enough. So the govt's gonna allow the IAF to choose. The IAF has to figure out if AMCA is enough or an order of Su-57 is also necessary or if a proper J-XX challenger (FGFA Mk2) has to be developed, or a combination of all three. And that answer is currently with the PLAAF. Unlike before, India is now reacting to Chinese purchases, a tactic Pakistan uses against India. The earlier plan (from 2007-10) was for the IAF to begin replacing the MKIs with FGFA from 2030 onwards. That disappeared once they figured out by 2014 that the MKI has more life than that, which is why even the MLU plans were delayed by a decade.

It's possible that to stop any deal with Russia, the Americans will offer the NGAD. The Americans have very likely already started the development of the NGAD successor as per their Digital Century Series plan, where they introduce a new design every 15 years. If NGAD happens, then we will need only 20-30 jets insead of 150-200 FGFAs. The USAF plans on getting way lesser than 100.

Right Now , Both Russia and NATO are Busy in Ukraine

This is a perfect time for China to Act against India OR Taiwan