India vs China - War Gaming Scenarios : Related News , Updates , Discussions & Analysis .

[Speedster1]

From our perspective the US gaining an AFB in BD won't be bad at all . The USAF can interdict PLAAF FAs especially J-20s taking off from Yunnan to target our rear flying over Myanmar & BD .

Frankly, I don't see the need for the US to park its forces in the BoB. Guam already gives them a ringside view of everything that goes on in the subcontinent.

Besides, they already have a string of bases overlooking China stretching from PH to Japan. This move was likely intended to keep us in check.

 

[_Anonymous_]

You and I both know that in most cases 'training' is just doublespeak.

Yes & that's what I wrote there but where's the evidence they're USMC personnel ? They could be from any wing of the US war fighting machinery .

This deployment was obviously leaked in this manner as a signal to China.

China'd know even if the US didn't publicly acknowledge it.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Frankly, I don't see the need for the US to park its forces in the BoB. Guam already gives them a ringside view of everything that goes on in the subcontinent.

They're there to create a diversion since the US isn't sure we'd oblige them if things went south in the Pacific theatre of operations.

Tibet & Xinjiang are then China's soft underbelly. If the US does manage a permanent base in BD that's what they intend to do - open up a new front & supply that base thru the BoB .

India will be used as a logistics base courtesy the 3 foundational agreements we signed with the US.

Besides, they already have a string of bases overlooking China stretching from PH to Japan.

This move was likely intended to keep us in check.

That's the second order effect . This would come into play once China's been taken care of . However as of now the principal target is China . That's the reason we've kept quiet & not done much to undermine US presence there.

 

[Speedster1]

They're there to create a diversion since the US isn't sure we'd oblige them if things went south in the Pacific theatre of operations.

India will be used as a logistics base courtesy the 3 foundational agreements we signed with the US.

LEMOA doesn't obligate us to refuel or provide MRO for USN ships, esp during war-time. I doubt we'd anyways want to be caught in the cross-fire between them and China in the event of a Taiwan crisis.

At best, we might bring in a few more divisions along the LAC to put pressure on the Chinese WTC and perhaps share some intel.

Otoh, a US base on St Martin's could constrain our ability to preempt a move by BD on Chicken's Neck. BNP has historically been hostile to India. BSF-BDR firefights, etc have happened during their rule in the past.

In any case, the larger play by the US was reportedly to carve out a part of Myanmar and our NE to create a new quasi state cum militarily outpost. One that could be used against China and us. What do you make of that?

 

[Subgradewalker]

I have said this before, but i believe that unlike western border where IAF has taken a primary role ... For china, it's our Army that will have to take primary role.

The difference that I see here is that on western border, IAF paves the way for army to 'retain' land, while with China army pushes forward while AF works as long range support.

As you all have said that most of the chinese industry is on the east coast, while it makes it harder to target them from border, it also increases logistical complexity and vulnerability for the chinese.

Our new mixed units with tanks, (C)UAV,(C)UGV,Infantry,SF, Akashteer will need to start the insertion while IAF needs to locate and destroy the logistics chain.
It won't be easy obviously but you can't deter china without restricting their biggest strength which depends on their biggest weakness.

This is only when considering the near future capability of both nations. We aren't as of yet or in foreseeable future on par with China in 1 vs 1 war. Best net would be to make it so painful for them that they give up. And untill we with some miracle are at that stage.. US and it's pacific allies will be needed to check china.

Right now it would be good for military planners to devise allocation

LEMOA doesn't obligate us to refuel or provide MRO for USN ships, esp during war-time. I doubt we'd anyways want to be caught in the cross-fire between them and China in the event of a Taiwan crisis.

At best, we might bring in a few more divisions along the LAC to put pressure on the Chinese WTC and perhaps share some intel.

Otoh, a US base on St Martin's could constrain our ability to preempt a move by BD on Chicken's Neck. BNP has historically been hostile to India. BSF-BDR firefights, etc have happened during their rule in the past.

In any case, the larger play by the US was reportedly to carve out a part of Myanmar and our NE to create a new quasi state cum militarily outpost. One that could be used against China and us. What do you make of that?

Taiwan won't end by India remaining at sidelines. That option went to ground after Galwan.

Sure, in initial phases it won't be anything else than increasing awareness, gathering intel, maintaining defensive posture to deter.

Whenever China moves for Taiwan, it will definitely Activate Pak elements to deter India. So, all the foundation laid today ( Afg thaw, Restrict Bang, IN all over arabian sea , potential ramilification in Iran and it's fallout in form of baloch rebel etc etc) along with cold start to quick K.O them. Won't get better chance than that in coming times.

What you say?

 

[_Anonymous_]

LEMOA doesn't obligate us to refuel or provide MRO for USN ships, esp during war-time. I doubt we'd anyways want to be caught in the cross-fire between them and China in the event of a Taiwan crisis.

If we deny the US logistics support it'd have major repercussions on other aspects of our relationship. Besides it's in our interest the US & its allies prevail over China preferably in a much diminished state .

Besides the US has already signed an agreement - the MSRA or Master Ship Repair Agreement with L&T to repair & maintain their ships making the latter & their facility a major hub for repair in the Indo Pacific .

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You need to check out Saurav Jha's writings on the matter. He's clearly decoded what this & other moves between India & the US means when the balloon goes up in the SCS.

Not only will India function as a major logistics & repair hub we're already basing the US & Japanese personnel on the ANC in a very hush hush manner.

If you've noticed apart from news of US personnel visiting those islands you also have USN & JSDF naval ships make port calls there . Then there's the Malabar Naval Exercises we've been conducting with other members of the Quad off the ANC.

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Once again news about such developments are very low key but China's got the signal .

At best, we might bring in a few more divisions along the LAC to put pressure on the Chinese WTC and perhaps share some intel.

Depends on whether China goes for Taiwan before India. I'm betting on the latter.

Otoh, a US base on St Martin's could constrain our ability to preempt a move by BD on Chicken's Neck. BNP has historically been hostile to India. BSF-BDR firefights, etc have happened during their rule in the past.

How's chicken's neck related to the US base in St Martin's ? Are you saying if BD makes a move on the chicken's neck we'd be sitting on our haunches doing nothing just because we fear a reaction from the US ?

To begin with do you actually think BD is stupid enough to actually make such a move ? It's one thing for their people to make bombastic statements , it's another thing for their armed forces to actually carry it out.

And their armed forces are well aware of what they'd face if they even dreamt up such a move.

As far as the BDR ambushing BSF personnel & killing them goes check out when did that happen ? IIRC it was during ABV's tenure more than 20 years ago , close to 25 years ago .

That was part of a section of the BNP colluding with ISI & Paxtan with active on plotting by the Jamaat to try & open up a second front in BD. We didn't take the bait & swallowed our losses.

If they were to attempt a stunt like that today the consequences are unimaginable. If we're going hammer & tongs after the Paxtanis why do you think our reaction would be constrained against BD.

In any case, the larger play by the US was reportedly to carve out a part of Myanmar and our NE to create a new quasi state cum militarily outpost. One that could be used against China and us. What do you make of that?

You check out the map of Northern Myanmar & our NE & tell me which ethnic group there hasn't crossed swords with their neighbouring ethnic group ?

Take Manipur for instance. The Meiteis are at war with the Kukis today . Somewhere in the 1990s the Kukis & Nagas had their own war . Around the same time the Paites in Manipur part of the Mizo / Zo / Kuki / Chin super tribe had their own showdown with the Kukis.

Besides do you think it's that easy for the US to carve out a piece of land from BD , Myanmar & India & then hold on to it with the help of these bedraggled groups ?

Are you serious or are you into conspiracy theories tonight ?

 

[Speedster1]

Taiwan won't end by India remaining at sidelines. That option went to ground after Galwan.

Sure, in initial phases it won't be anything else than increasing awareness, gathering intel, maintaining defensive posture to deter.

Whenever China moves for Taiwan, it will definitely Activate Pak elements to deter India. So, all the foundation laid today ( Afg thaw, Restrict Bang, IN all over arabian sea , potential ramilification in Iran and it's fallout in form of baloch rebel etc etc) along with cold start to quick K.O them. Won't get better chance than that in coming times.

What you say?

For one, I do not believe the US will commit ground forces to support us in a border confrontation with China.

Material help, yes. Intel, yes. Diplomatic support, yes. Boots on the ground, no. The 2026 National Defence Strategy makes it clear. The US will seek to avoid a direct confrontation with the PLA for the foreseeable future.

India has also been resisting the US' positioning of the Quad as a sort of Asian Nato. We prefer to frame it as a 'functional partnership', whatever that means.

That being the case, the US may not feel compelled to involve itself directly in an India-China conflict. It knows all too well that our support would also be limited in case of a Taiwan invasion.

The difference that I see here is that on western border, IAF paves the way for army to 'retain' land, while with China army pushes forward while AF works as long range support.

As you all have said that most of the chinese industry is on the east coast, while it makes it harder to target them from border, it also increases logistical complexity and vulnerability for the chinese.

Our new mixed units with tanks, (C)UAV,(C)UGV,Infantry,SF, Akashteer will need to start the insertion while IAF needs to locate and destroy the logistics chain.
It won't be easy obviously but you can't deter china without restricting their biggest strength which depends on their biggest weakness.

Agree. The IAs new IBGs will enable faster response times against PLA movements. But I don't think we are looking at doing a Cold Start against China.

Our overland logistics capability has improved considerably over the years. But it still relies on the IAF to a large extent. The IAF would largely be relegated to flying CAP sorties to prevent PLA interdiction of our supply lines + CAS on support of ground forces.

The goal will be to keep hostilities localized.

How's chicken's neck related to the US base in St Martin's ? Are you saying if BD makes a move on the chicken's neck we'd be sitting on our haunches doing nothing just because we fear a reaction from the US ?

To begin with do you actually think BD is stupid enough to actually make such a move ? It's one thing for their people to make bombastic statements , it's another thing for their armed forces to actually carry it out.

I see parallels between BDs recent messaging wrt the 7 sisters, offering a base to the US etc and Pak's gambit of renting itself out to the US (via deals for mineral exploration, ops against Afg, Iran, etc).

They both desperately the cash (basing fees), military aid and a US presence as insurance against their common enemy.

For the 1st time, the IA has set up new bases in the Chicken's Neck region because of an increased threat perception. The return of the BNP is not going to make things any easier for us.

 

[Subgradewalker]

For one, I do not believe the US will commit ground forces to support us in a border confrontation with China.

Material help, yes. Intel, yes. Diplomatic support, yes. Boots on the ground, no. The 2026 National Defence Strategy makes it clear. The US will seek to avoid a direct confrontation with the PLA for the foreseeable future.

India has also been resisting the US' positioning of the Quad as a sort of Asian Nato. We prefer to frame it as a 'functional partnership', whatever that means.

That being the case, the US may not feel compelled to involve itself directly in an India-China conflict. It knows all too well that our support would also be limited in case of a Taiwan invasion.



Agree. The IAs new IBGs will enable faster response times against PLA movements. But I don't think we are looking at doing a Cold Start against China.

Our overland logistics capability has improved considerably over the years. But it still relies on the IAF to a large extent. The IAF would largely be relegated to flying CAP sorties to prevent PLA interdiction of our supply lines + CAS on support of ground forces.

The goal will be to keep hostilities localized.



I see parallels between BDs recent messaging wrt the 7 sisters, offering a base to the US etc and Pak's gambit of renting itself out to the US (via deals for mineral exploration, ops against Afg, Iran, etc).

They both desperately the cash (basing fees), military aid and a US presence as insurance against their common enemy.

For the 1st time, the IA has set up new bases in the Chicken's Neck region because of an increased threat perception. The return of the BNP is not going to make things any easier for us.

Yup. By needing allies in Pacific and US, I don't mean for them to have base on India. But to keep applying pressure on eastern front as currently going on. Similarly, we wouldn't be completely on sidelines in case China goes to capturing Taiwan and USA gets into preventing it. W/o foreign base on Indian soil.

And the cold start was in regards to pakistan. For China, it will be a long gritty campaign.

 

[randomradio]

I have said this before, but i believe that unlike western border where IAF has taken a primary role ... For china, it's our Army that will have to take primary role.

The difference that I see here is that on western border, IAF paves the way for army to 'retain' land, while with China army pushes forward while AF works as long range support.

The air force is necessary to meet almost the same objectives in China. While the IAF cannot gain or maintain air supremacy like they did over Pakistan, they will still have to ensure the air over the LAC is protected via local air superiority or else the IA's in trouble.

Against India, the Chinese are in the same boat as the Americans in Taiwan in terms of distance from the LAC. A bit worse in fact. So that works very well in our favor.

Taiwan won't end by India remaining at sidelines. That option went to ground after Galwan.

Sure, in initial phases it won't be anything else than increasing awareness, gathering intel, maintaining defensive posture to deter.

Whenever China moves for Taiwan, it will definitely Activate Pak elements to deter India. So, all the foundation laid today ( Afg thaw, Restrict Bang, IN all over arabian sea , potential ramilification in Iran and it's fallout in form of baloch rebel etc etc) along with cold start to quick K.O them. Won't get better chance than that in coming times.

What you say?

Pak won't bother after Op Sindoor.

I don't think we will attempt to retake PoK when China's at war though. It will potentially risk the Chinese opening another front to distract their own population while reeling under attacks from the West.

Rather the Americans will try to activate their Pak assets against India in order to pull India into the war.

I'd like to see us retake PoK on our own terms instead.

 

[randomradio]

Agree. The IAs new IBGs will enable faster response times against PLA movements. But I don't think we are looking at doing a Cold Start against China.

There's no such thing as Cold Start. But we will maintain a defensive-offense posture leaning a bit more towards offense than before against China. It's called proactive strategy.

 

[_Anonymous_]

The genesis of the Agniveer scheme , baniya buddhi application from Baniya No 1 & his PMO & the likely fallout of this Baniya afflicted scheme when we go up against China.

Must watch IMO .

 

[_Anonymous_]

For one, I do not believe the US will commit ground forces to support us in a border confrontation with China.

Why should the US commit ground forces & why should we need them ? Mountain warfare is a highly specialised job . Very few nations have the necessary skill sets to excel at it & we happen to be one of those few . Or at least that was the case before Agniveer came in.

In any case the last of the recruits to the IA from the recruitment pattern before the Agniveer scheme came into effect will be out by 2030-31 another boondoggle of our own making. The silver lining is they would be our reserve troops.

Material help, yes. Intel, yes. Diplomatic support, yes. Boots on the ground, no.

We take whatever we get & knowing how fickle the US is , even that's not guaranteed .

The 2026 National Defence Strategy makes it clear. The US will seek to avoid a direct confrontation with the PLA for the foreseeable future.

I don't agree with this assessment. In fact I'm of the view both the entrapment of Russia in Ukraine & the present war against Iran were undertaken with a view to either weaken them considerably or eliminate if possible their leadership so that once the US went up against China it couldn't be distracted with Iran & Russia who more likely than not would've teamed up with China much like what we saw with the Axis in WW-2 to prosecute their own wars.

India has also been resisting the US' positioning of the Quad as a sort of Asian Nato. We prefer to frame it as a 'functional partnership', whatever that means.

Yeah that was because the US wanted to bait us with being the Ukraine with China playing the part of Russia . That was what the Quad was meant to be . Once they realised India wasn't biting they lost interest in the Quad .

However IMO that doesn't end the danger from China to us . In other words we're between the rock & a hard place on this one.

That being the case, the US may not feel compelled to involve itself directly in an India-China conflict. It knows all too well that our support would also be limited in case of a Taiwan invasion.

Answered this one above.

I see parallels between BDs recent messaging wrt the 7 sisters, offering a base to the US etc and Pak's gambit of renting itself out to the US (via deals for mineral exploration, ops against Afg, Iran, etc).

There's been a change of guard since if you haven't noticed . Besides their Intelligence Chief came calling on India yesterday. There's been a reset.

BD with its economy intertwined with India cannot afford to go against us especially with their economy in the doldrums & the recent war in the ME.

They both desperately the cash (basing fees), military aid and a US presence as insurance against their common enemy.

They'd have to do a tightrope walk between the US India China & the EU.

For the 1st time, the IA has set up new bases in the Chicken's Neck region because of an increased threat perception.

They should've done it a long time ago for infiltration from BD will only increase in the times to come as their economy & country sinks. True for both Paxtans. We need to keep the front on BD calm till we sort out China. Right now we're facing a 2.5 front .

In the long run we're going to face a problem with both Paxtan & BD as both sink the difference being there's already a huge population of BD within our borders which will go up in the near future , something we don't face on our western borders.

The return of the BNP is not going to make things any easier for us.

As far as BD goes it's always been a choice between the bad & the worse even when BAL was in power. With the departure of the BAL the politics in Bangladesh becomes bipolar with the BNP occupying BAL's place as the centrist party & the Jamaat with its ideologically aligned parties now being the other pole.

 

[Speedster1]

Why should the US commit ground forces & why should we need them ? Mountain warfare is a highly specialised job . Very few nations have the necessary skill sets to excel at it & we happen to be one of those few . Or at least that was the case before Agniveer came in.

Many members here were of the opinion that the Stryker, Javelin, M777, Chinook deals etc were part of a grand plan to set up brigade/IBGs that would be fully interoperable with US SBCT, etc for joint ops along the LAC.

For reasons I've touched upon earlier (wrt the limited scope of Quad, NDS 2026, et all) the US cannot be expected to fight alongside us against China.

I don't agree with this assessment. In fact I'm of the view both the entrapment of Russia in Ukraine & the present war against Iran were undertaken with a view to either weaken them considerably or eliminate if possible their leadership so that once the US went up against China it couldn't be distracted with Iran & Russia who more likely than not would've teamed up with China much like what we saw with the Axis in WW-2 to prosecute their own wars.

The new US DefSec Hegseth says the US must fill critical gaps in its MIC, including ending REE dependency, before taking on China.

I'd recommend you watch the entire episode of the Shawn Ryan Show for a better context.

Right now, the US focus is on securing resources, capability building etc.

There's been a change of guard since if you haven't noticed . Besides their Intelligence Chief came calling on India yesterday. There's been a reset.

BD with its economy intertwined with India cannot afford to go against us especially with their economy in the doldrums & the recent war in the ME.

All this talk of Greater BD etc, including stmts from ex-generals, couldn't have surfaced without some kind of tacit backing from the US and China.

To spite India, BD wants to impose tarrifs on cotton imports, stop buying power from Adani and revise the Teesta water sharing agreement. So much for economic integration.

BNP will not want to risk being seen as soft on India either. Their 2026 election manifesto had a hawkish stance wrt Indian 'interference' et all.

 

[Amer Mahajane]

A twist in the tale.

CIA is trying to carve out a Christian state out of the Christian NE states of india and the Bangladeshi land. With US support,it will be a counter to china and India.

The CIA operator who got killed in a hotel in Dhaka was a part of the plan to assassinate Modiji.

Yunus was the spearhead of the plan.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Many members here were of the opinion that the Stryker, Javelin, M777, Chinook deals etc were part of a grand plan to set up brigade/IBGs that would be fully interoperable with US SBCT, etc for joint ops along the LAC.

Quite frankly this is the first time I'm hearing of it .

For reasons I've touched upon earlier (wrt the limited scope of Quad, NDS 2026, et all) the US cannot be expected to fight alongside us against China.

Already answered this one. We're not expecting boots on the ground from the US on the LAC .

The new US DefSec Hegseth says the US must fill critical gaps in its MIC, including ending REE dependency, before taking on China.

I'd recommend you watch the entire episode of the Shawn Ryan Show for a better context.

Right now, the US focus is on securing resources, capability building etc.

Let's agree to disagree .

All this talk of Greater BD etc, including stmts from ex-generals, couldn't have surfaced without some kind of tacit backing from the US and China.

More Younus & his allies trying to inflame the situation to generate support for themselves in view of the upcoming elections.

Not sure if you've been following affairs in BD since before 2024 for this rhetoric may be new to you now given the massive proliferation on SM but these views are actually pretty old within BD .

The Muslim League was founded in Dhaka in 1906 if you must know .

To spite India, BD wants to impose tarrifs on cotton imports, stop buying power from Adani and revise the Teesta water sharing agreement. So much for economic integration.

Yes & how much of it was implemented during Younus's regime ? Going ahead , if this is what the BNP wants they'd get it . So far there's nothing to suggest they want a complete divorce . In fact if anything , they're moving in the opposite direction seeking reconciliation.

We've just supplied them with 5000 litres of diesel as a goodwill gesture.

BNP will not want to risk being seen as soft on India either. Their 2026 election manifesto had a hawkish stance wrt Indian 'interference' et all.

Under the circumstances , the BNP is the best option. Does this mean the Hindus there will be safe ? No , but they'd be better off than what they were under Younus. Long term they'd have to move to India.

The Jamaat & their cronies will keep raising the anti India bogie from time to time . The BNP will keep up the balancing act . That's how this game will be played for the time being.

 

[Rajput Lion]

@_Anonymous_

Apparently PLAAF has housed multiple(read over 20) combat-coded J-20s at Shigatse Air Base in Tibet which is just 180kms away from LAC. The threat of Chinese VLO isn't in future but it has arrived with full-force at present.

 

[_Anonymous_]

@_Anonymous_

Apparently PLAAF has housed multiple(read over 20) combat-coded J-20s at Shigatse Air Base in Tibet which is just 180kms away from LAC. The threat of Chinese VLO isn't in future but it has arrived with full-force at present.

Somehow I didn't receive any notification of you tagging me.

Well , do what we must in such situations. Get an electronic signature of these FAs. Check their stealth to see if they're indeed LO or VLO. Check the efficacy of our IADS & so on .

Beyond thet there's little we can do.

 

[Shan]

@_Anonymous_

Apparently PLAAF has housed multiple(read over 20) combat-coded J-20s at Shigatse Air Base in Tibet which is just 180kms away from LAC. The threat of Chinese VLO isn't in future but it has arrived with full-force at present.

It has been the case since 2024. The deployment was not initiated recently. However, it is as you said - a cause of concern for the IAF.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2033407445591285967

 

[randomradio]

Many members here were of the opinion that the Stryker, Javelin, M777, Chinook deals etc were part of a grand plan to set up brigade/IBGs that would be fully interoperable with US SBCT, etc for joint ops along the LAC.

Whoa, where's that coming from? Not at all.

M777 was the only light gun available for mountain ops and Chinook was practically single vendor, even Apache.

Stryker is a bit unique, but let's see if the story that the govt is pushing it down the army's throat is true or not. For now, it's only the opinion of 1 person. I find it unlikely because Stryker, Apache, M777, and SkyGuardians are all interoperable, and American-supplied replacements will be fast in case of war with China.

Only P-8I and SeaGuardians came with true interoperability in mind.

IA units cannot interoperate with US Army units, the hardware alone is the least of the problems.

 

[Rajput Lion]

It has been the case since 2024. The deployment was not initiated recently. However, it is as you said - a cause of concern for the IAF.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2033407445591285967

Even since 2020! As per our ex-Air Chief, as soon as our Rafales arrived, they deoloyed J-20s in Tibet that too with an overwhelming 5:1 ratio. That was post Galwan and at the height of India vs China tensions.

But the difference between then and now is that, now they are fully ready for combat. Earlier it was just for psychological warfare.