Indian Economy : News,Discussions & Updates

India's external debt rises $58.4 bn to $529.7 bn
India's external debt stood at $ 529.7 billion at the end of March 2018, recording an increase of $ 58.4 billion year-on-year, primarily on account of a rise in commercial borrowings, short-term debt and non-resident Indian (NRI) deposits, the RBI said on June 29.

The increase in the magnitude of external debt was partly due to valuation loss resulting from the depreciation of the US dollar against major currencies,the central bank said in a statement

The external debt to GDP ratio stood at 20.5 percent at end-March 2018, higher than its level of 20.0 percent at end-March 2017,it added.

As per the RBI data, share of commercial borrowings continued to be the largest component of external debt with a share of 38.2 percent, followed by NRI deposits (23.8 percent) and short-term trade credit (19.0 percent).

Debt service payments declined to 7.5 percent of current receipts at end-March 2018 as compared with 8.3 percent at end-March 2017.
India's external debt rises $58.4 bn to $529.7 bn
 
Individual advance tax grows by 44% in June
The government on Friday cheered a 44% jump in advance tax paid by individuals in June along with a 17% rise on the corporation tax front, attributing the increase to higher consumption in the economy and better compliance.

What has cheered the government is the over 40% growth for the second year in a row on the personal tax front, while there are signs that the corporate sector is performing better with the growth rate more than doubling from 8% in June 2017, despite the weak show put up by banks.

“After repayment of refunds due to some excess tax paid in earlier years, which are usually paid back in the first quarter, the net amount would be somewhat lesser. But if the same trend continues in the next three quarters, one expects a significant increase in the direct tax collection this year,” Union minister Arun Jaitley said in a blog. The first of the four instalments of advance tax was to be paid by June 15 and the government had so far not made the data public.

The government has budgeted for a 14% increase in direct tax collections, estimated at Rs 11.5 lakh crore, with personal income tax budgeted to rise 20% — twice the estimated rate of growth for corporation tax.

Jaitley, who is recuperating from a surgery, said multiple factors are responsible for the rise, including the introduction of goods and services tax (GST), the impact of which is “more apparent this year”.

He said the data suggested that spending and consumption have also increased, translating into higher sales and more profitability for companies. “But increase in the amount of collections in category of personal income tax is also due to more people coming within the tax net. There is also the impact of GST visible this year. This unprecedented taxation growth is a result of the anti-black money measures, use of technology, demonetisation and the GST. Most of these measures were severely criticised by the Congress Party. This is just the medium-term impact of some of these measures. The long-term impact would be significantly higher.”
Individual advance tax grows by 44% in June - Times of India
 
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India says April-May fiscal deficit at 55.3 percent of full-year target
India reported on Friday a fiscal deficit of 3.45 trillion rupees ($50.37 billion) during April-May period, or 55.3 percent of the budgeted target for the current fiscal year compared with 68.3 percent a year ago.

Net tax receipts in the first two months of 2018/19 fiscal year that ends next March were 1.02 trillion rupees, government data showed.

India expects to trim the deficit to 3.3 percent of GDP in this fiscal year, after meeting an upwardly revised fiscal deficit target of 3.5 percent of GDP in 2017/18.
India says April-May fiscal deficit at 55.3 percent of full-year target
 
Tax dept offers instant e-PAN based on Aadhaar
The tax department on Friday launched the facility of e-PAN on a real-time basis, a move which is expected to reduce the interaction with the department and help taxpayers generate the permanent account number (PAN) without any hassle.

The facility is free of cost and you can you can log onto the income tax portal to generate the e-PAN. It is available for resident individual tax payers and not for Hindu undivided family (HUF), firms, trusts and companies, and is open for a limited period on a first-come, first-served basis for valid Aadhaar holders.
You will not need to submit any documents. The e-PAN will be generated using the details available in Aadhaar. So, you need to make sure that these are details updated because the e-KYC will be done using the Aadhaar database.

Once, the e-KYC is successful based on the Aadhaar OTP, the process of e-PAN application will be initiated. You will need to upload a scanned copy of your signature on a white paper with the specifications given on the income tax website. After filing the application, a 15-digit acknowledgement number will be generated and sent to your mobile number/ email mentioned in the application form.

“Thanks to the elevated use of technology and digitisation adopted by the government in the tax department, it is now resulting in truly convenient and paperless interface with tax payers. One may expect more of such initiatives in the coming days, which will make the life of tax payers more easy for managing their tax affairs,” said Kuldip Kumar, partner & leader, personal tax at consulting firm PwC India.
Tax dept offers instant e-PAN based on Aadhaar - Times of India
 
Ratan Tata launches North East Small Finance bank
Tata Trusts Chairman Ratan Tata and Assam`s Finance Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma on Sunday launched the first 28 branches of the North East Small Finance Bank (NESFB), the region`s first small bank. "If India has to grow as a prosperous place, we need to create opportunities and entrepreneurship," Tata said at the function here.

The Tata Trusts Chairman, through the investment arm RNT Associates, has invested Rs 40 crore in the bank.

"Most of us who have seen the growth and prosperity in India have to admit that it has been easy for borrowers to find funds to grow. However, there is a vast number of people in India who have been either under served or not served at all and finance is not available.

"I wish the bank every success and the Tata Trusts has been very happy to participate and play a role in spreading prosperity to millions of people who do not have access to funds and the opportunity," said Tata.

RGVN (North East) Microfinance Ltd got the Reserve Bank of India`s Small Finance Bank license on March 31, 2017 mandating it to carry out banking services in remote and "unbanked" areas of the eight states of northeast India, as well as in West Bengal and registered a public limited company by the name of North East Small Finance Bank Ltd.

"We are starting with 28 branches and will soon add another 80 branches. After that (we plan to) have branches in all the northeastern states," the bank`s Managing Director Rupali Kalita said at a press conference earlier in the day.
The North East Small Finance Bank Ltd which has a net worth of Rs 300 crore is supported by infusion of funds from domestic and overseas investors.

"During the years of operation RGVN (NE) MFL got equity investment and able support from Small Industries Development Bank of India (SIDBI), the North Eastern Development Finance Corporation Ltd, Opportunity International, Australia (through DiaVikas Capital Pvt Ltd (India), Brahmaputra Community Development Trust, Norways`s Nordic Microfinance Initiative, and Oiko Credit Netherlands," a bank official said.

Fresh equity for strengthening the capital base to promote the banking company was received from the SIDBI as well as SIDBI Venture Capital, RNT Associates Pvt Ltd, Pi Ventures LLP, Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance Company, Nordic Microfinance Initiative, and DiaVikas Capital.
Ratan Tata launches North East Small Finance bank
 
Domestic investors come to the rescue as India sidesteps emerging market carnage
As emerging-market stocks reel under the pressure of a rising dollar and fiery trade rhetoric, Indian equities are charting a different course.

The nation’s benchmark S&P BSE Sensex Index has risen 7 percent this quarter in local-currency terms, the best performance among developing nations. That’s as the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has tumbled almost 10 percent.

The world’s fastest-growing major economy is relatively insulated from trade risks due to its massive domestic market and burgeoning middle class. And while India hasn’t been immune to outflows, buying by local funds has more than made up for this and helped the Sensex to so far shrug off headwinds such as rising oil prices and a weak rupee.

“The EM pack has suffered due to outflows and a strong dollar,” said Sunil Sharma, who oversees $1 billion of assets as chief investment officer at Sanctum Wealth Management Pvt. in Mumbai. “India has been resilient because of its strong economy and local flows, even as the trade war rhetoric rises.”

Domestic funds have bought a net $4.5 billion of Indian shares since the end of March, compared with $2.9 billion of foreign outflows, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Much of the local buying came in April and May, when a net 245 billion rupees ($3.6 billion) was pumped into equity funds amid poor returns from gold and real estate.

Data released in late May showing the economy grew 7.7 percent from a year earlier in the first quarter has also added to the allure of stocks.

“Domestic flows, while having moderated from peak levels, are still quite sizable and they are lending support to the market,” said Harsha Upadhyaya, who oversees $3.4 billion in equities as chief investment officer at Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Co. in Mumbai.

Also, year-to-date withdrawals of less than $800 million from Indian stocks are “very small as markets like Indonesia and Thailand have seen much larger outflows,” Mark Matthews, head of Asia research at Bank Julius Baer & Co., said in an interview in Mumbai. “We saw foreign investors subscribe to Indian IPOs. They wouldn’t do that unless they want to be in India.”

Resilience Tested
Still, the idea that Indian equities are less prone than others to global shocks may be tested if the price of oil -- the nation’s top import -- remains elevated and the trade skirmish worsens and drives a flight to haven assets.

The rupee has slid more than 5 percent this quarter and hit a record low Thursday. That’s left global funds with losses in dollar terms, and has increased the risk of the stock market becoming overly reliant on domestic buying. The upshot is that equity investors must tone down their return expectations, according to Aditya BirlaNSE 5.00 % Sun Life AMC Ltd.

“Equity as an asset class in India will yield moderate returns this financial year -- about 12 to 13 percent,” said Mahesh Patil, who manages $6.3 billion of stocks at Aditya Birla, the nation’s third-largest money manager. “It’s very difficult to expect positive foreign flows in India this year.”
Domestic investors come to the rescue as India sidesteps emerging market carnage
 
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Nissan sets up 1st global digital hub in India, to hire 500 this fiscal
Japanese auto major Nissan Motor Co today said it is establishing its first global centre for digital operations in India and will hire around 500 people for the same by the end of this fiscal.

The Nissan Digital Hub, to be set up in Kerala, will be followed by a number of software and information technology development centres in Asia, Europe and North America, the company said.

The Kerala centre will focus on building new-age digital capability to enhance user experiences, product development capabilities, security and connectivity in line with the advent of autonomous, connected and electric vehicle technologies.

"We are building our team up for this new-age digital capability. We thought that India would be a great market for us from a technology and talent perspective," Nissan Motor Corporation Chief Information Officer Tony Thomas told PTI.

He said developing such new-age capability has been necessitated by the transformation happening in the automotive industry across the globe with respect to manufacturing, automation, engineering design and how cars are sold.

It has become even more important with the the advent of autonomous and connected cars along with emergence of electric vehicle technology, he added.

Commenting on the role of the new centre, for which the company has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Kerala government today, Thomas said,"This is for the global market. The talent that we are building here will be serving all over the globe for Nissan".

The centre, which will be initially located at Technopark – owned by the state government in Thiruvananthapuram before moving to a permanent location in the city, will focus on two key aspects, he said.

"The first is to take the current IT capability that we have and evolve it to the next generation," Thomas added.

It will focus on digitisation of Nissan's current manufacturing and engineering capabilities and enhancing customer experience to take it to the next level.

The second part, he said, would be on development of security and data analysis to cater to the needs of modern cars, which have become "computer on wheels".

"Connected, electric and autonomous cars, a lot of technologies go into these cars. (There is a) need for security and analysis of data...We will be focusing on building some of those capabilities here to serve our company," Thomas said.

When asked how big the centre would be in terms of manpower, he said,"Our assumption is that we will have about 500-odd employees here driving outcomes for Nissan across the globe".

The centre will start with around 20-odd people.

"We have almost 100 offers ready to go as soon as we finalise with the government. Before the end of the fiscal we will hit 500 or more," he said.

Thomas said Nissan will also work with its partners to build an ecosystem for future technology at the centre.

"We will be building it up. From thereon, based on our performance we will build up and the number (head count) will grow up," he added.

Nissan Chairman (Africa, Middle East and India region) Peyman Kargar said, "The creation of Nissan's first global Digital Hub in India reflects our commitment to this growing market and our belief in investing in India for the long term".

Harnessing the skills and talents of the workforce in India is another way that Nissan is working to capture the full potential of the region, Kargar added.

Nissan, along with its alliance partner Renault, has a manufacturing facility near Chennai with a potential annual capacity of 4.8 lakh vehicles.

The alliance also has a global R&D centre in Chennai, employing 7,000 engineers engaged on several projects, including vehicle and technology development.
Nissan sets up 1st global digital hub in India, to hire 500 this fiscal
 
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Indians' love for electronics is a current-account shocker

This is the setting up of a chip set foundry with the necessary ecosystem for manufacturing of consumer electronics was deemed so vital by the previous regime . Unfortunately nothing came out of it save a few grand announcements. Your take @Bali78 ; @Nilgiri ; @Pundrick
Thanks For Tagging.

Here are some of the points we should consider before looking at the numbers:
1). The current ecosystem of Electronic Manufacturing(EM) in India is about assembling some low value parts. This activity has picked up speed due to shifting of some factories in recent time to India. Fact : $ 18.4 billion record FDI(acc to GoI) in Electronic sector during FYI 2016-17. But the value addition done inside Indian territory is very low, but the positive point is, it is increasing everyday.

We cannot just become global leader of EM within 3-4 years, we need to establish an ecosystem, India should be ready to become part of Global supply-chain in order to lure MNCs in shifting more and more operations in India.

2). Taking the above point further the FDI in the last 2-3 years is only for low end smart phones i.e. Oppo, Alcatel, Samsung,etc the cream layer i.e. high end products are still missing. Remember Apple & OnePlus are yet to start their operations, plus samsung is also not shifting its assembly of expensive phones. Not to forget that EM also includes Laptop, Computer, Automotive components, Tablets ,etc and there has been a surge in demand of these products in India. Not only that MeiTy only posts data(focused) about mobile phone but what about Headphones,microphones and receivers, keypads, USB cables,camera modules and connectors, etc these products also hold huge value.

So unfortunately only assembling mobile phone has been projected by the GoI as EM. So a supply chain is need of the hour not assembly plants.


3). Monopoly of few countries, for example Samsung will be skeptical about moving core R&D center to India, similarly China won't allow export of raw material for EM i.e. Rare minerals, they'll only export intermediate product and the factory in India will get to add those parts to the final product.

Note : The recent increase in import during Q1 2018 is due to huge shipment of "Jio Phone" a feature phone, can you believe it ?

Also see the below image, the data & forcast is posted by IIM-Bengolre.
Figure-1-Forecast-on-the-total-local-value-addition-under-the-Phased-Manufacturing-Programme-1.jpg


As per the figure,the import bill will only increase further in coming days, all we need is to increase domestic content as much as possible.

Now with speed with which we are moving from 2014 we need at least five more year to increase our value addition from merely 6% in 2015 to 35% in 2022.(y)(y)
 
Indians' love for electronics is a current-account shocker

This is the setting up of a chip set foundry with the necessary ecosystem for manufacturing of consumer electronics was deemed so vital by the previous regime . Unfortunately nothing came out of it save a few grand announcements. Your take @Bali78 ; @Nilgiri ; @Pundrick

Does anyone have the numbers for FY 2017-18?

As you can see there is some progress, but there is long way to go:

In a first, e-goods made in India pull ahead of imports - Times of India

For 2016-17, about 50 billion produced locally and 43 billion imported.

The Indian electronics industry in 2017-18: Key opportunities and trends - ElectronicsB2B

Using the CAGR predicted by the above article though: (The Indian electronics market is one of the largest in the world and is expected to reach a turnover of US$ 400 billion in 2022, up from US$ 69.6 billion in 2012. According to an Indian Brand Equity Foundation (IBEF) report, the market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29.4 per cent during the period 2015-2020 (Figure 1).
Total production of electronics hardware goods in India is estimated to reach US$ 104 billion by 2020
.)

By 2020 if we get to 104 billion local production, the denominator (total market size) will be around 240 billion USD... so the earlier predicted ratio looks to decline (from above 50% reached in 2016).

Not to mention the swelling of the electronic CA deficit by another 140 billion USD (of course some will be offset by higher stream export of any raw component imports that are then assembled etc (MVA value added) in india)...according to this prediction.

However the silver lining (somewhat) from your article is:

Government data for the 13 months to May show electronics imports were valued at $57.8 billion, way more than the $35.8 billion worth of gold purchases.

So standardizing for a 12 month fiscal year (2017-18 in this case) would be around 54 billion USD of imports. That is about 25% growth yoy. If we assume that trend to continue....the imports will also be around 100 billion USD by 2020 ...so maybe it implies that local production will make up the difference of the extra 40 billion USD (in total market size of 240 bn projected)....i.e 2020 will be 100 billion imports and 140 billion (local production + export).

In essence we have to see how this shapes up in the numbers....right now India is in an inflection point in lot of these sectors till 2020 - 2025.
 
A billion USD is 6800 crore INR.

Around 6 billion USD is equal to budget of MNREGA, 5 billion is turnover of HUL of last year. Now you compare it accordingly.

My point is not that I cannot multiply or divide by 65 ? Why do I even need to that . You don't see other countries sites using USD . Most of them use national currency .
 
Solid demand lifts India June factory growth to fastest pace this year
India's factory activity grew at its fastest pace this year in June on robust output driven by solid demand, according to a business survey that also showed input costs increased the most in nearly four years.

That points to continued strong economic activity in the quarter that ended in June, after Asia's third-largest economy grew at its quickest pace in nearly two years in January-March.

The Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by IHS Markit, rose to 53.1 in June from May's 51.2, the highest since December. The reading has been above the 50-mark, which separates growth from contraction, for 11 consecutive months.

"India's manufacturing economy closed the quarter on a solid footing against a backdrop of robust demand conditions, highlighted by the sharpest gains in output and new orders since last December," Aashna Dodhia, an economist at IHS Markit, said.

Orders from international markets rose at the strongest pace since February, Dodhia added.

IHS Markit made no mention of increasing global trade tensions, which are worrying manufacturers in many countries.

The June sub-index tracking input costs jumped to nearly a four-year high of 58.6 from May's 54.7 percent, indicating a further rise in inflationary pressures which manufacturing firms are at the moment reluctant to pass on entirely to customers.

Retail inflation is rising in India, and through May was above the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4 seven straight months in May. This bolsters expectations the central bank, which raised the key interest rate in June, will increase it again in August.

While manufacturing firms in June increased hiring at the fastest pace since December, concerns over rising price pressures and higher interest rates pushed down the long-term output index - a gauge of optimism on future business - to an eight-month low.

"The dip in optimism partly reflected concerns of a potential market slowdown in the year ahead," Dodhia said. "Indeed, some of the key challenges to the 12-month outlook include tighter domestic monetary policy and persistently high inflation."
Solid demand lifts India June factory growth to fastest pace this year
 
Master reporting, simplification of foreign investments reporting in India
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its Monetary Policy Review held in April 2018 discussed their intention to unify the reporting structure for foreign investments in India. There was indeed a need to integrate the various reporting forms, a few of which were still filed in the offline mode with the Authorised Dealer Banks e.g. forms to be filed in relation to FDI in LLP. Needless to say, a reporting structure which would enable online reporting in a single, simple and comprehensive form was very much desired.

The current scenario requires Indian investee Companies, Limited Liability Partnerships (‘LLP’) and Investment Vehicles such as AIFs/REITs/InvITs to file an array of different forms to report foreign investments. They have all now been integrated in a ‘Single Master Form’ (‘SMF’). Even transfer of shares/interest in Indian entities between non-residents and residents have been clubbed in SMF.

Apart from above, what is more, interesting is RBI’s move necessitating all entities having any foreign investment to report the same on an online portal which shall be facilitated by RBI on its official website (‘Entity Master Reporting’). The window provided by the RBI for this filing has been kept short – a period of 15 days only (from 28th June 2018 to 12th July 2018). However, the RBI has given time to Indian entities to start preparing for this filing, by informing about the data that is required for this ‘Entity Master Reporting.

The RBI is serious about the deadline of 12th July since entities not complying with this requirement, shall not be allowed to receive any direct or indirect foreign investments. Furthermore, missing the deadline will result in the entity being non-compliant with FEMA requirements, thereby subject to penalties and compounding requirements.
Perhaps the RBI wants the various entities who have not yet reported their foreign investments to come clean. It is a good time for those investee companies who got their foreign investments earlier (some 10-15 years ago), from our NRI junta, to finally come clean this time around. This was a time when the AD banks did not have their regulatory teams ready to educate their constituents about the reporting requirements under FEMA.

This begs another question – would the Entity Master reporting absolve an entity, of the years of delay in reporting the foreign investment? The answer seems to be negative. The Indian investee entities will still have to report their unreported foreign investments (now through the SMF) and yes, there will still be a need to compound the delay in reporting and pay the penalties that the RBI would direct. The RBI has nowhere suggested that this Entity Master reporting is an amnesty scheme for defaulters.

One may wonder about how the RBI is going to use this combined digital data and intelligence. Maybe it will help it in framing the FDI Policy – the sectors that require impetus. But above all, this exercise will make all the foreign investment data available in a digital format, which otherwise for the RBI to compile could have been a painstaking process e.g. if an Indian company had got FDI in initial years of opening of Indian economy, the same would have to be reported now in Entity Master Reporting once again but this time reporting would be in digital form. The idea of creating a digital database of the foreign investment in a country as large and varied as India, by simply creating an online portal is a novel idea.

It remains to be seen how the entire process will pan out. Historically, most government online portals in India have had their own teething issues initially, which with time have been streamlined by the regulators, but with RBI giving a window of only 15 days for the Entity Master, there does not seem to be much room for error available with the RBI.

As India tries to digitise its reporting requirements, for the regulators to understand trends and take decisions based on real data and information, the introduction of both the SMF and the Entity Master, seems to be aimed at gathering accurate foreign investment data and facilitate consistent and simple reporting requirements.
Master reporting, simplification of foreign investments reporting in India