Indian Economy : News,Discussions & Updates

For the people who have followed the India-EU FTA and RCEP FTA talks, they would know the negotiations aren't going too well for us. Its likely that the deals won't benefit us one bit, pretty much like the India-Japan FTA and India-ROK FTA. Some people, including myself, are of the belief that we should straight up pull out of the RCEP and try to straighten up trade with Japan and ROK. Now we have this. I don't really understand why we would push for more FTAs and BTIAs when we have only lost from all such deals in the past.

@Nilgiri @LoneWolfSandeep @_Anonymous_ @BlackOpsIndia @Ashwin @Sathya et al
what's your take on the this ?

Govt attempts fresh focus on FTAs, talks with U.S., EU and ASEAN negotiators next week

By Suhasini Haidar & T.C.A. Sharad Raghavan, July 04, 2019 17:41 IST, Updated : July 04, 2019 19:05 IST
THJC-TOMASZKOZLOWSKI-2

European Union ambassador Tomasz Kozlowski. File | Photo Credit: R.V. Moorthy

In 2017, PM Modi and the EU leadership had declared they would restart “talks about the talks”, but were unable to break the deadlock, mainly over what baseline will be used to restart the talks.

With fresh focus on resolving its pending talks on trade and dispelling criticism that India has been ‘protectionist’ and held up Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations, the Modi government will engage in three sets of important trade talks: with the European Union (EU), the United States and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) negotiators this week.

On Friday, sources say, the chief negotiators of the EU and the Commerce Ministry will meet in an effort to restart talks on the Bilateral Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA), which was suspended in 2013, despite several attempts to restart them.

Next Tuesday, a three-member delegation of ASEAN will visit Delhi to discuss taking negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to a conclusion by November. Assistant USTR (United States Trade Representative) Christopher Wilson and Deputy Assistant USTR Brendan Lynch will also be in Delhi next week to restart talks as decided by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Donald Trump when they met on the sidelines of the G20 summit last week in Osaka. They will prep for talks between USTR Robert Lightizer and Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal.

“The EU and India maintain regular contacts between their trade officials, including on issues related to a possible FTA,” EU ambassador Tomasz Kozlowski told The Hindu on the informal BTIA talks between the Deputy General for Trade at the European Commission and a joint secretary from the Commerce Ministry.

“They will basically sum up how the situation has changed after the elections, and I think they will find that the ground for restarting [FTA] talks is much more positive,” former Indian Ambassador to the EU and author of book India and EU: An Insider's View Bhaswati Mukherjee explained.

Meanwhile, RCEP negotiators visiting Delhi, including ASEAN secretary general Lim Jock Hoi, hope to push India into committing to the Asian FTA by the RCEP summit in November. Last year, Mr. Modi had pushed the deadline to 2019, given the elections in four RCEP countries.

“They will make a first-hand assessment of political commitment of the new Modi government to a substantive conclusion of the RCEP agreement by year-end,” said a Ministry of External Affairs official, adding that the ASEAN countries wish to impress a degree of “urgency” on Indian negotiators to complete the deal. Signing the RCEP has been opposed by RSS-affiliated trade unions and industry lobbies worried about the market being flooded by cheaper Chinese goods.

In 2014, the Modi government decided to scrap all its FTA agreements with a view to negotiating new, more equitable ones with various countries, but has yet to close a deal on any one of them as it is accused imposing non tariff barriers on goods and asking for more access for Indian services. Concluding the deals with the EU and RCEP countries would need a slew of changes in India’s current trade regime.

“The government has taken several steps to open up the market, in terms of liberalising the FDI rules, etc. But there is a feeling that there is scope to do more in this regard when it comes to trade with other economies,” a senior official in the Commerce Ministry said.

Election of trade hardliners in the U.S., Europe

On the other hand, the election of trade hardliners in the U.S., Europe and other countries means that there may be less flexibility on the part of the negotiators visiting India next week. President Trump has also regularly repeated his call for India to cut tariffs, while his government is clamping down on professional visas and immigration.

In 2017, Mr. Modi and the EU leadership had declared they would restart “talks about the talks”, but were unable to break the deadlock, mainly over what baseline will be used to restart the negotiations. With elections for the European Parliament and in India over, diplomats suggest that both sides now have a “new political mandate” to take talks forward.

“The EU Parliament has seen more right-wingers who are traditionally hardline on trade, anti-immigration voices being elected, so I would be surprised if they could even give the concessions they have offered in the past,” said Ms. Mukherjee.

Govt attempts fresh focus on FTAs, talks with U.S., EU and ASEAN negotiators next week
 
For the people who have followed the India-EU FTA and RCEP FTA talks, they would know the negotiations aren't going too well for us. Its likely that the deals won't benefit us one bit, pretty much like the India-Japan FTA and India-ROK FTA. Some people, including myself, are of the belief that we should straight up pull out of the RCEP and try to straighten up trade with Japan and ROK. Now we have this. I don't really understand why we would push for more FTAs and BTIAs when we have only lost from all such deals in the past.

@Nilgiri @LoneWolfSandeep @_Anonymous_ @BlackOpsIndia @Ashwin @Sathya et al
what's your take on the this ?

Govt attempts fresh focus on FTAs, talks with U.S., EU and ASEAN negotiators next week

By Suhasini Haidar & T.C.A. Sharad Raghavan, July 04, 2019 17:41 IST, Updated : July 04, 2019 19:05 IST
THJC-TOMASZKOZLOWSKI-2

European Union ambassador Tomasz Kozlowski. File | Photo Credit: R.V. Moorthy

In 2017, PM Modi and the EU leadership had declared they would restart “talks about the talks”, but were unable to break the deadlock, mainly over what baseline will be used to restart the talks.

With fresh focus on resolving its pending talks on trade and dispelling criticism that India has been ‘protectionist’ and held up Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations, the Modi government will engage in three sets of important trade talks: with the European Union (EU), the United States and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) negotiators this week.

On Friday, sources say, the chief negotiators of the EU and the Commerce Ministry will meet in an effort to restart talks on the Bilateral Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA), which was suspended in 2013, despite several attempts to restart them.

Next Tuesday, a three-member delegation of ASEAN will visit Delhi to discuss taking negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to a conclusion by November. Assistant USTR (United States Trade Representative) Christopher Wilson and Deputy Assistant USTR Brendan Lynch will also be in Delhi next week to restart talks as decided by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Donald Trump when they met on the sidelines of the G20 summit last week in Osaka. They will prep for talks between USTR Robert Lightizer and Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal.

“The EU and India maintain regular contacts between their trade officials, including on issues related to a possible FTA,” EU ambassador Tomasz Kozlowski told The Hindu on the informal BTIA talks between the Deputy General for Trade at the European Commission and a joint secretary from the Commerce Ministry.

“They will basically sum up how the situation has changed after the elections, and I think they will find that the ground for restarting [FTA] talks is much more positive,” former Indian Ambassador to the EU and author of book India and EU: An Insider's View Bhaswati Mukherjee explained.

Meanwhile, RCEP negotiators visiting Delhi, including ASEAN secretary general Lim Jock Hoi, hope to push India into committing to the Asian FTA by the RCEP summit in November. Last year, Mr. Modi had pushed the deadline to 2019, given the elections in four RCEP countries.

“They will make a first-hand assessment of political commitment of the new Modi government to a substantive conclusion of the RCEP agreement by year-end,” said a Ministry of External Affairs official, adding that the ASEAN countries wish to impress a degree of “urgency” on Indian negotiators to complete the deal. Signing the RCEP has been opposed by RSS-affiliated trade unions and industry lobbies worried about the market being flooded by cheaper Chinese goods.

In 2014, the Modi government decided to scrap all its FTA agreements with a view to negotiating new, more equitable ones with various countries, but has yet to close a deal on any one of them as it is accused imposing non tariff barriers on goods and asking for more access for Indian services. Concluding the deals with the EU and RCEP countries would need a slew of changes in India’s current trade regime.

“The government has taken several steps to open up the market, in terms of liberalising the FDI rules, etc. But there is a feeling that there is scope to do more in this regard when it comes to trade with other economies,” a senior official in the Commerce Ministry said.

Election of trade hardliners in the U.S., Europe

On the other hand, the election of trade hardliners in the U.S., Europe and other countries means that there may be less flexibility on the part of the negotiators visiting India next week. President Trump has also regularly repeated his call for India to cut tariffs, while his government is clamping down on professional visas and immigration.

In 2017, Mr. Modi and the EU leadership had declared they would restart “talks about the talks”, but were unable to break the deadlock, mainly over what baseline will be used to restart the negotiations. With elections for the European Parliament and in India over, diplomats suggest that both sides now have a “new political mandate” to take talks forward.

“The EU Parliament has seen more right-wingers who are traditionally hardline on trade, anti-immigration voices being elected, so I would be surprised if they could even give the concessions they have offered in the past,” said Ms. Mukherjee.

Govt attempts fresh focus on FTAs, talks with U.S., EU and ASEAN negotiators next week

Till India get its labour laws fixed simply and cohesively, FTAs are not hugely relevant....it just bit of juggling around who India imports stuff from and who we export to.....without really addressing the structure/depth of it.
 
Till India get its labour laws fixed simply and cohesively, FTAs are not hugely relevant....it just bit of juggling around who India imports stuff from and who we export to.....without really addressing the structure/depth of it.
Given the political problems to labour reforms, do you think its possible we will get it done anytime soon ? The article I posted above points out that the US might push for a FTA soon. Without the reforms we won't benefit, if anything we will lose. Yet our politicians think its not time yet for reforms, with the mandate Modi has if not now then when ?
 
Given the political problems to labour reforms, do you think its possible we will get it done anytime soon ? The article I posted above points out that the US might push for a FTA soon. Without the reforms we won't benefit, if anything we will lose. Yet our politicians think its not time yet for reforms, with the mandate Modi has if not now then when ?

Let them do the work, they are starting:

Govt clears wage code in new wave of labour reforms

Labour Reforms: Modi Government Approves Occupational Safety Code Bill Subsuming 13 Different Laws

There is no other option if India wants to keep improving in ease of doing business indices...they have tackled just about everything else on it.

The other pressure is if they are going to keep wanting to broader the data collection on labour by using EPF etc, they have to keep improving labour code compliance simplicity to get better data there for policy. They cant have just free cake there to eat.

Some more articles on the issues:

Will Modi govt manage to push labour reforms this time?

5 contentious issues holding up India's labour law reforms
 
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India lifted 271 million people out of poverty in 10 years: UN
PTI United Nations | Updated on July 12, 2019 Published on July 12, 2019

ChennaiCITYReGL65SBDR53jpgjpg

According to a UN report, India and Cambodia reduced their Multidimensional Poverty Index values the fastest. - The Hindu

UN Development Programme released the 2019 global Multidimensional Poverty Index
India lifted 271 million people out of poverty between 2006 and 2016, recording the fastest reductions in the multidimensional poverty index values during the period with strong improvements in areas such as “assets, cooking fuel, sanitation and nutrition,” a report by the United Nations said.

The 2019 global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) from the UN Development Programme (UNDP), the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) was released on Thursday.

The report said that in the 101 countries studied — 31 low income, 68 middle income and 2 high income - 1.3 billion people are “multidimensionally poor”, which means that poverty is defined not simply by income, but by a number of indicators, including poor health, poor quality of work and the threat of violence.

The report identifies 10 countries, with a combined population of around 2 billion people, to illustrate the level of poverty reduction, and all of them have shown statistically significant progress towards achieving Sustainable Development Goal 1, namely ending poverty “in all its forms, everywhere”. The 10 countries are Bangladesh, Cambodia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Peru and Vietnam.

The report said that within these 10 countries, data shows that 270 million people moved out of multidimensional poverty from one survey to the next. “This progress was largely driven by South Asia. In India, there were 271 million fewer people in poverty in 2016 than in 2006, while in Bangladesh the number dropped by 19 million between 2004 and 2014,” it said.

The report noted that of the 10 selected countries for which changes over time were analysed, India and Cambodia reduced their MPI values the fastest — and they did not leave the poorest groups behind. India’s MPI value reduced from 0.283 in 2005-06 to 0.123 in 2015-16.

Noting the examples of pro-poor reduction, where the poorest regions improved the fastest, the report said that Jharkhand in India reduced the incidence of multidimensional poverty from 74.9 per cent in 2005-06 to 46.5 per cent in 2015-16. Mondol Kiri and Rattanak Kiri in Cambodia reduced it from 71.0 per cent to 55.9 per cent between 2010 and 2014.

Ethiopia, India and Peru significantly reduced deprivations in all 10 indicators, namely nutrition, sanitation, child mortality, drinking water, years of schooling, electricity, school attendance, housing, cooking fuel and assets.

In 2005-2006, the population in India living in multidimensional poverty stood at about 640 million people (55.1 per cent) and this reduced to 369 million people (27.9 per cent) living in poverty in 2015-16. India saw significant reductions in number of people who are multidimensionally poor and deprived in each of the 10 indicators over this time period.

India reduced deprivation in nutrition from 44.3 per cent in 2005-06 to 21.2 per cent in 2015-16, child mortality dropped from 4.5 per cent to 2.2 per cent, people deprived of cooking fuel reduced from 52.9 per cent to 26.2 per cent, deprivation in sanitation from 50.4 per cent to 24.6 per cent, those deprived of drinking water reduced from 16.6 per cent to 6.2 per cent.

Further more people gained access to electricity as deprivation was reduced from 29.1 per cent to 8.6 per cent, housing from 44.9 per cent to 23.6 per cent and assets deprivation from 37.6 per cent to 9.5 per cent. The trends in these 10 countries also shine a light on where poverty reduction has been uneven, despite the good progress overall, it said.“In all 10 countries rural areas are poorer than urban areas. In Cambodia, Haiti, India and Peru poverty reduction in rural areas outpaced that in urban areas — demonstrating pro-poor development — and in Bangladesh and Democratic Republic of the Congo poverty fell at the same speed in rural and urban areas, it added.

The report also showed that children suffer poverty more intensely than adults and are more likely to be deprived in all 10 of the MPI indicators, lacking essentials such as clean water, sanitation, adequate nutrition or primary education.

Child poverty fell markedly faster than adult poverty in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Haiti, India and Peru. But children fell further behind in Ethiopia, and their progress—together with that of adults—stalled in Democratic Republic of the Congo and Pakistan. Globally, of the 1.3 billion people who are multidimensionally poor, more than two-thirds of them—886 million— now live in middle-income countries. A further 440 million live in low-income countries.

Even more staggering, worldwide, one in three children is multidimensionally poor, compared to one in six adults. That means that nearly half of the people living in multidimensional poverty — 663 million — are children, with the youngest children bearing the greatest burden. The vast majority of these children, around 85 per cent, live in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, split roughly equally between the two regions.

The report underscored that the traditional concept of poverty is outdated, demonstrating more clearly than ever that labelling countries - or even households - as rich and poor is an oversimplification. “To fight poverty, one needs to know where poor people live. They are not evenly spread across a country, not even within a household,” UNDP Administrator Achim Steiner said. The report also highlighted a positive trend that those furthest behind are moving up the fastest.

.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

India findings
The Global MPI 2018 shows that India has made remarkable progress.

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India has reduced its poverty rate drastically from 55% to 28% in ten years. 271 million people moved out of poverty between 2005/6 and 2015/16. While progress has been remarkable, the country still has the largest number of people living in multidimensional poverty in the world (364 million people).

If one considers the 364 million people who are MPI poor in 2015/16, 156 million (34.5%) are children. In fact, of all the poor people in India, just over one in four—27.1 percent—has not yet celebrated their tenth birthday. The good news is that multidimensional poverty among children under 10 has fallen the fastest. In 2005/6 there were 292 million poor children in India, so the latest figures represent a 47 percent decrease or a 136 million fewer children growing up in multidimensional poverty. When considering the durable and lifetime consequences of childhood deprivation, particularly in nutrition and schooling, this is a tremendously good sign for India’s future.

Read the Global MPI 2018 Report, chapter 2: MPI in India, A Case Study.



https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/mpi_2019_table_1.pdf

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So now India has better MPI than both pak and bang.......some one should post it in other forum to rub a little
 
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Odisha can help India become a $10 trillion economy, says Sajjan Jindal

Our Bureau, Mumbai | Updated on July 10, 2019,Published on July 10, 2019
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Sajjan Jindal, Chairman of the JSW Group (File photo)-PTI

Odisha can help India become a $10 trillion economy, by becoming a manufacturing hub of metal and allied sectors, a report by JSW Group and PwC India said. For this, the state must leverage its vast mineral resources.

Sajjan Jindal, Chairman, JSW Group, said that India has the potential to become $10 trillion economy, which is driven by the robust development of regional economies.

Globally, the growth of regional economies are fuelled by the presence of mineral resources, skilled man power, connectivity and trade infrastructure, he said, in the Vision Report titled, “Economic possibilities for Odisha — towards a one trillion dollar economy”. “To achieve one trillion economy, Odisha has to become the biggest manufacturing hub of metal and its downstream sectors,” he said.

Chinese example

Drawing the example of mineral-rich Hebei province of China, the report said that the province constituted about 1.96 per cent of China, but it contributed about 4.35 per cent of the country’s GDP. It possess 12 per cent of China’s iron ore, but produces 23 per cent of China’s crude steel production. Hebei’s economy has been driven by heavy industries manufacturing and processing ferrous metals. It contributes 22 per cent of sales output value and has been developed as China’s ferrous metal hub.

“Odisha, not only has 35 per cent of India’s iron ore reserves, but also 92 per cent of nickel, 53 per cent of bauxite, 96 per cent of chromite and 45 per cent of manganese. The state has the potential to produce 200 million tonne (mt) of steel, 15 mt of aluminium, 400 mt of iron ore and 250 mt of coal,” the report said.

The basic GVA (gross value add) in steel, iron and non-ferrous has the potential to contribute over $250 billion to the targeted state GDP of $1 trillion, it said

Growth driver

Naveen Patnaik, Chief Minister, Odisha said the state will take a central role in driving the national growth as a manufacturing hub with investment-friendly policies, infrastructure connectivity and skilled manpower.

“The state has the potential to add 80 mt of steel production, taking its overall output to 100 mt by FY31 with right policy and regulatory support and account for 40 per cent of the country’s steel production,” the report said.

Odisha can help India become a $10 trillion economy, says Sajjan Jindal
 
Odisha can help India become a $10 trillion economy, says Sajjan Jindal

Our Bureau, Mumbai | Updated on July 10, 2019,Published on July 10, 2019
View attachment 8041
Sajjan Jindal, Chairman of the JSW Group (File photo)-PTI

Odisha can help India become a $10 trillion economy, by becoming a manufacturing hub of metal and allied sectors, a report by JSW Group and PwC India said. For this, the state must leverage its vast mineral resources.

Sajjan Jindal, Chairman, JSW Group, said that India has the potential to become $10 trillion economy, which is driven by the robust development of regional economies.

Globally, the growth of regional economies are fuelled by the presence of mineral resources, skilled man power, connectivity and trade infrastructure, he said, in the Vision Report titled, “Economic possibilities for Odisha — towards a one trillion dollar economy”. “To achieve one trillion economy, Odisha has to become the biggest manufacturing hub of metal and its downstream sectors,” he said.

Chinese example

Drawing the example of mineral-rich Hebei province of China, the report said that the province constituted about 1.96 per cent of China, but it contributed about 4.35 per cent of the country’s GDP. It possess 12 per cent of China’s iron ore, but produces 23 per cent of China’s crude steel production. Hebei’s economy has been driven by heavy industries manufacturing and processing ferrous metals. It contributes 22 per cent of sales output value and has been developed as China’s ferrous metal hub.

“Odisha, not only has 35 per cent of India’s iron ore reserves, but also 92 per cent of nickel, 53 per cent of bauxite, 96 per cent of chromite and 45 per cent of manganese. The state has the potential to produce 200 million tonne (mt) of steel, 15 mt of aluminium, 400 mt of iron ore and 250 mt of coal,” the report said.

The basic GVA (gross value add) in steel, iron and non-ferrous has the potential to contribute over $250 billion to the targeted state GDP of $1 trillion, it said

Growth driver

Naveen Patnaik, Chief Minister, Odisha said the state will take a central role in driving the national growth as a manufacturing hub with investment-friendly policies, infrastructure connectivity and skilled manpower.

“The state has the potential to add 80 mt of steel production, taking its overall output to 100 mt by FY31 with right policy and regulatory support and account for 40 per cent of the country’s steel production,” the report said.

Odisha can help India become a $10 trillion economy, says Sajjan Jindal
I think Sajjan Jindal & the Odisha government would do well to study the POSCO fiasco. Besides rapid industrialization will result in massive displacement of the Adivasi population. How does the Government reconcile the two is anyone's guess.
 
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If you draw a line from Amritsar connecting Delhi, Hyderabad and chennai, you will find that to the west of it is 4/5th of Indian GDP and to the east of it is 4/5th of Indian mineral sources and this region is also home to the largest poor population of India while the land itself is extremely rich. This makes it a completely unbalanced geography in terms of industries. We need to correct it.
 
I think Sajjan Jindal & the Odisha government would do well to study the POSCO fiasco. Besides rapid industrialization will result in massive displacement of the Adivasi population. How does the Government reconcile the two is anyone's guess.
It will simply result in massive loot of natural resources. We will simply end up becoming cheap raw material supplier to other countries and end up buying finished goods at higher price. We need industries which add more value and are higher up in value chain.