Indian Economy : News,Discussions & Updates

G20 Summit: India, Indonesia set ambitious USD 50 billion target for bilateral trade by 2025

By: PTI | Published: June 29, 2019 11:23:34 AM

Trade between the two countries in 2016 was USD 12.9 billion. It rose 28.7 per cent to USD 18.13 billion in 2017 with Indonesia's exports to India reaching USD 14.08 billion and its imports from India standing at USD 4.05 billion, according to Indonesia's Central Statistics Agency.
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PM Narendra Modi with Indonesian President Joko Widodo (Reuters)

India and Indonesia on Saturday set an ambitious USD 50 billion target for bilateral trade over the next six years as Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Joko Widodo discussed ways to deepen cooperation in a number of key areas including economy, defence and maritime security. The two leaders, who are in Osaka, Japan for the G20 Summit, met in the morning and discussed ways to boost bilateral ties and enhance cooperation in trade and investment.

According to Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Raveesh Kumar, India and Indonesia set a USD 50 billion target for bilateral trade by 2025. Trade between the two countries in 2016 was USD 12.9 billion. It rose 28.7 per cent to USD 18.13 billion in 2017 with Indonesia’s exports to India reaching USD 14.08 billion and its imports from India standing at USD 4.05 billion, according to Indonesia’s Central Statistics Agency.

During his meeting between Prime Minister Modi and Indonesian President Widodo, the two leaders discussed ways to deepen bilateral cooperation in trade and investment, defence and maritime fronts. This was Modi’s first official engagement on the second day of the June 28-29 Summit.

G20 Summit: India, Indonesia set ambitious USD 50 billion target for bilateral trade by 2025
 
India's Bounce Zips Up Another $72 Million To Continue Scaling Scooter Culture

by Julie Walmsley, Contributor
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Bounce offers smartphone-based rentals of the scooters that have long been a vehicle of choice in India. Courtesy: Bounce

Indians used scooters for quick jaunts across jammed cities long before Americans were talking about micromobility and other urban transportation buzzwords. But big U.S. money plus existing finance infrastructure and consumer demand could push one operator to dominance.

Bangalore-based Bounce will continue to grow with a $72 million Series C led by Manhattan Beach, California-headquartered global fund B Capital and New York-based Falcon Edge Capital.

This is a short-term scooter rental concept taking fresh capital from the fund that also backed Bird and other mobility and consumer travel concepts. So the easy leap could be that the Bird-ification of global cities is gaining momentum and the race to find riders will, as with ride-hail's uneven progress, be a battle of well-capitalized U.S. firms trying to export identical operations around the world, versus domestic upstarts with better knowledge of the regional preferences they must satisfy.

But Bounce's 8,000-strong fleet is not comprised of kick scooters, the form we used to refer to by the popular brand name Razor. They're motorized scooters, similar to what we used to call Vespas and Metropolitans. And they're already an integral part of Indian life.

Potential Bounce customers of all ages exist, and even those who don't own their own scooter or motorcycle are experienced and insurable riders.

That is apparently a known fact. Asked in a phone interview how the company will recruit as clientele the kind of young city residents who would be keen to try Bounce but likely don't have driver licenses, Bounce cofounder and chief executive Vivekananda Hallekere laughed. "I'll tell you how things work in India," he said. "The second you turn 18 it's very cultural that you apply for something called a learning license... and it's very cultural that someone in the family will have a two-wheeler and you learn how to ride using that."

In other words, people already get licenses and keep their own helmets to ride others' two-wheeled vehicles. Bounce is just organizing and scaling the process at what it says are affordable rates.

Asked for consumer pricing relative to average income in major Indian cities, B Capital general partner Kabir Narang said it is not an easily calculated ratio, because cities vary widely in their labor economics. However, in Bangalore, the average public transit trip distance of 7.09 kilometers (4.4 miles) on a Bounce scooter with two riders splitting the 10-paise-per-kilometer fare works out to about the same price on public transit over the same route.

The company does not want to replace public transit but complement it. Bounce developed parking agreements to guarantee curb space adjacent to Bangalore Metro Rail stations. Though transit is affordable it is overcrowded, according to Narang, and his new portfolio company offers an extra option to budget commuters.

This video shows the user experience for Bounce's 5,000 keyless scooters in Bangalore:


Scooter culture ensures not only consumers but an ecosystem for the enterprise. Parking considerations unique to two-wheelers were already a part of public policy and retail convenience discussions. An OEM and service center network guarantees affordable fleet maintenance. And lenders who recognize the vast secondary market for two-wheelers confidently financed the startup's fleet, leaving its venture capital for growing its team, technology and global reach.

Bounce was founded in 2014. Hallekere and his cofounders Anil Giri and Varun Agni at first rented larger motorcycles and began experimenting with other forms of mobility in 2016. Summer 2018 marked the beginning of dockless rental. Today Bounce offers mostly 110-cc scooters with a top range of 250 kilometers (155 miles) per gas tank. Rental rates include insurance and fuel.

Counting this round, funding to date totals $92.2 million. Sequoia and Accel are repeat investors, believers in a national market that Bounce analyzed as currently having 163 million two-wheelers on the road with 21 million vehicles sold each year. By 2025, Bounce projects those numbers to reach 255 million and 25 million respectively. By 2030, it projects 327 million in the national fleet and 47 million in annual sales. The company counts 110 million people in an addressable market of non-agricultural work commuters nationwide.

Next, the company will use its new capital build its technology and its hardware, seeking to design its own sharing-friendly electric scooter. Outside of India, it will target other markets with existing demand. Europe, Vietnam and The Philippines are up first. “We will go after every market with scooter culture," Hallekere said.

India's Bounce Zips Up Another $72 Million To Continue Scaling Scooter Culture
 
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Interesting read on poverty alleviation.

India’s economic policies must focus on what causes growth, not what causes poverty to decline

Published: June 29, 2019 1:34:54 AM

Given the estimated large poverty decline in India over fy12-fy17, our economic policies must focus on what causes growth, not what causes poverty to decline.
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Consumption is 60 % of GDP, and poverty is defined in terms of per capita consumption.

By Surjit Bhalla and Karan Bhasin

Today is National Statistics Day and there is a reasonable chance that the NSSO Consumer Expenditure Survey report for agricultural year (July-June) 2017-18 will be released over the next couple of weeks. Based on our analysis of existing trends in consumer expenditure and consumer prices, we predict that this will (should) unleash seismic changes in the way Indians (obviously including the Indian government) think about absolute poverty and its alleviation, macro growth policies and micro (especially agriculture) policy.

First rethink—we are not a poor country anymore, not with just 4.5% of the population classified as poor (Tendulkar poverty line of Rs 44 per person per day in FY18 prices). And given that there has been very low inflation since then, consider this as the poverty line today.

Second rethink—we have always considered food consumption as the ultimate criterion of poverty. Hence, we have built up an elaborate (too elaborate) ecosystem of food production, consumption, and distribution. Time has come to dismantle this ecosystem—an ecosystem that is biased against the poor farmer, is biased against climate change, and is biased against the use of water and energy.

Third rethink—4.5 % of the population as poor is not right, does not sound right, and isn’t right. The rethink has to be about defining poverty in relative, not absolute terms. Most European nations have a relative definition of poverty, for instance, a fixed proportion of median income. We should move towards that by the end of 2024, when India will likely be a $5 trillion economy, or around $3,500-4,000 per capita income. This is where Indonesia is today, and where China was in FY09 (in terms of per capita income). But before we move to a relative definition, India should forthwith move towards an updated poverty line, a poverty line consistent with our income status today as a lower middle income country—note, no longer a poor economy.

Fourth rethink and something we believe that the Modi government has been involved in for the last five years—poverty is now not just about food but living standards (sanitation, housing, piped water, electricity, education, health, and jobs). And on each of these elements, the focus should shift to quality, not quantity.

Fifth rethink—recognise that we have a messed up and archaic agricultural policy—a policy that was not even fit for earlier poor economy times. But no reason to blame the past—the emphasis should be in reforming the present for a better future. Poverty is no longer about food, so free up the food producers rather than keeping them as prisoners of policy (and politicians and bureaucrats). No Essential Commodities Act, no Food Corporation of India [whoever named this bureaucratic-political-corrupt delivery of food as a Corporation?], and no Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee now called the Agricultural Produce and Livestock Marketing Act 2017 (APLM). Notice how little we have developed—farming and trade (marketing) are the oldest activities known to man and woman, and we need an Act of Parliament in 2017 to keep regulating it?! Alternative “Act”—farmers are free to buy, sell, hoard, export, import, like the rest of the 7 billion residents of this planet. And no bans please—we are no longer a poor economy.

The above rethink is not based on idle speculation but rather on analysis of trends in consumer expenditure since FY12. Consumption is 60 % of GDP, and poverty is defined in terms of per capita consumption. The latest NSSO survey is likely to show a sizeable reduction in poverty rates across the country. Our estimates for FY18 are based on the estimation of poverty line in FY18. This estimate is based on the increase in poverty line or price level (over FY12) for each state, and each urban and rural area of each state. We use the NSSO distribution for FY12, and increase the average per individual nominal consumption for each individual by the all India constant magnitude of 89%. The per individual poverty line for everyone is estimated as above. The 3.2$ middle income poverty line is obtained from the Tendulkar poverty line by multiplying the latter by 3.2/1.9 (given that the Tendulkar poverty line in FY12 is equal to PPPP$1.9). We will update our analysis in the form of a research paper once the 2017 consumption survey data is released but the findings are likely to be identical.

According to Tendulkar poverty line, poverty is today around 4.5% of the population or less than 70 million. According to a 70% higher in real terms poverty line (equivalent to PPP$ 3.2 per person per day (pppd), the World Bank poverty line for middle income economies or `75 pppd), poverty in India is estimated at 31% down from 57% in FY12. Half of these poor reside in three Hindi heartland “old” states (before reclassification) of Bihar, MP and UP. Therefore, there is a 26 ppt decline in poverty over 6 years. That is above a 4% ppt decline per year—the fastest pace of poverty decline India has ever experienced, and that to with a 70% higher poverty line.

What happened to set this record decline amidst demonetisation, GST, two drought years, and lower than potential GDP growth? We believe a large part of this decline took place due to better targeting of government programs, better targeting made possible through expanded (and extensive) use of direct benefit transfers (DBT).

Therefore, the new approach towards poverty alleviation should involve targeted income transfers. Under our proposed targeted basic income program, which is a top-up scheme, the government transfers the poverty gap (difference between per capita consumption of the household and the poverty line faced by the household) into the bank account of the poor. The cost of such a programme is likely to be between Rs 2.5-3 trillion and it will ensure nobody has consumption below the poverty line. India’s current expense on poverty alleviation programs is approximately Rs 3.4 trillion and the cost to make one person non-poor due to the PDS in FY12 was Rs 24,000. The same for MGNREGA was Rs 40,500. Therefore, assuming perfect targeting, a basic income program is likely to cost substantially lower that the current policies and it will ensure that poverty rate is reduced to zero based on the higher poverty line.

The direct benefit transfer mechanism of the government has been able to resolve targeting problems for a bulk of the 430 government schemes and subsidies. The current PM-Kisan program provides income support to approximately 14 crore farmers is an example of how through DBT the government can provide direct income support as its focal policy towards poverty alleviation. Such a policy is likely to help government in rationalising and consolidating its poverty reduction programs, thereby freeing up resources for other sectors in the economy.

India’s recent growth has led to a sizeable expansion in the number of taxpayers, and successive reforms over the last five years have simultaneously improved tax compliance in the country. The increase in number of individual return filers from 3.5 crore in FY13 to 6.4 crore FY17 and the improvement in revenue realisation from direct taxes reflects this improvement.

However, now the government should focus on bringing more people under the tax net at the higher income brackets. Our recommendation towards achieving the same would be to reduce both Corporate Income Tax rate and the highest Personal Income Tax rate to a flat 25%. Therefore, to improve revenue realisation from direct taxes the government should focus on improving compliance by reducing the highest slabs of the tax rate. This rethink is necessary if we are to achieve accelerated growth, and higher tax revenues.

The Indian economy requires adequate investments in critical areas such as road, railways and water. Therefore, the government needs to rationalise its expenditure and tax rates to ensure that reallocation of resources. While our pace of poverty reduction has improved over the last five years, we can augment it further through a targeted basic income policy and free up additional resources for other sectors of the economy. Times have changed and so should our policies towards poverty alleviation.

Bhalla is contributing editor, Financial Express Bhasin is a New Delhi-based policy researcher Twitter: @surjibhalla & @karanbhasin95. Views are personal

India’s economic policies must focus on what causes growth, not what causes poverty to decline
 
@BlackOpsIndia remember we once talked about migrant workers not being counted in census and therefore not receiving govt. benefits. I proposed digitising ration cards so that it could be used whenever/wherever in the country.

Well, guess what :
Roll out ‘one nation, one ration card’ in a year, Centre tells states, UTs

Obviously not everybody is happy : ‘One nation, one ration card’ against federalism our source of income'
‘One nation, one ration card’ against federalism: M K Stalin - Times of India
 
These are 4 winners of the US-China trade war - CNN

United States imported 12% fewer goods from China during the same time period a year ago. But imports from Vietnam are up 36%, and they increased 23% from Taiwan, 14% from Bangladesh, and 12% from South Korea.

Remember that article where companies were waiting to shift their base to India during election? Well that was just that, election gimmick.

Trade war is around 1.5 year now and we are yet to see government even trying to capitalize on that. This is the seriousness after the economy is tanking, if mission election is over can somebody wake Modiji up?
 
PDS is one of the biggest money spinners for politicians. They wont agree to this one nation and one ration card.
Well good thing they don't have to agree on that, BJP government is there in most states. Fringe states can wait when people are better informed and corruption become deal breaker for them.