Indian Economy : News,Discussions & Updates

India lifted 271 million people out of poverty in 10 years: UN

In other words, India took the equivalent of 1 Pakistan out of poverty @zarvan ; @Arsalan123
Pakistan facing corruption, terrorism problem and every political party here wants it's own objectives to be fulfilled.political parties eat all the money and don't invest it on provinces.examples are Sindh and balochistan.peoples party is so corrupt that they eat all money.some of the places in Sindh feels like some type of village.they will continue giving vote to people's party in the name of Bhutto lol.i appreciate hard work by India but indian problem is their population.there is no mechanism to stop population growth here that's why you can see more poverty and unemployment here.pakistan is a small country but population is growing fast which is not good.
 
India seeks to raise $47 billion from stake sales in state firms over 5 years

by Reuters | Updated: Jul 12, 2019, 05.22 PM IST

The plan will open up a steady stream of state companies to greater private investment.
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Photo : Getty Images

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration already sold government stakes in a host of companies to raise a record $40.92 billion in his first five-year term.

NEW DELHI: The Indian government has plans to raise as much as 3.25 trillion rupees ($47.4 billion) in the next five years by reducing its stakes in some large state-owned firms to 40 per cent, two senior government officials told Reuters, in the nation's biggest privatisation push in more than two decades.

Last week, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in her budget announced that the government will look to reduce direct controlling stakes in some state-run firms on a case-by-case basis.

The plan will open up a steady stream of state companies to greater private investment, and target the kind of annual divestment revenue that will be crucial to meet fiscal deficit targets.


Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration already sold government stakes in a host of companies to raise a record $40.92 billion in his first five-year term, nearly three times the divestment proceeds of $14.52 billion achieved by the Congress party government in 2009-2014. Modi was re-elected for a second-term in a landslide victory in April-May.

The government has identified a number of state-owned firms, including explorer Oil and Natural Gas Corp, oil refiner Indian Oil Corp, gas transmitter GAIL (India) Ltd, power producers NHPC Ltd and NTPC , miners NMDC Ltd and Coal India, and Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd , said the sources, who declined to be named due to the sensitive nature of the matter.

"We have done a calculation on current prices and we could get 3.25 trillion rupees if we bring our stake down to 40 per cent in government companies, excluding banks," one of the officials said.

The two officials, though, said the government is yet to gauge investor appetite for the state-owned companies and that the level of demand will be crucial to any timetable.

Analysts said the government would need to be flexible, especially given that a lot of the companies were in the resource sector and their prices would often depend on the volatility of commodities prices.

"The government should gauge investor interest and schedule an ideal time-frame that is in sync with the commodity cycle," said Satyadeep Jain, a global metals and mining equity consultant.

Jain said the government should wait before selling stakes in companies such as Coal India as demand for its shares would be hurt by weak global coal prices. The country's largest iron-ore miner NMDC would be a better target for sale as its stock has been buoyant this year, he said.

New Delhi wants to reduce its holdings in such a way that the cumulative stake of the government and state-owned companies such as Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) would continue to be above 51 per cent.

This year, the government is planning to put stakes in a group of companies into exchange traded funds, which would then be sold on public markets and raise at least 400 billion rupees, the officials said. The state's stakes in those companies would be cut to 51 per cent in some cases.

The government has set a divestment target of 1.05 trillion rupees for the current fiscal year ending March 31, 2020.

It is in the process of identifying some power companies for merger with a view to cutting its stakes to 40 per cent, one of the sources said.

The government is planning a complex holding structure for companies such as state-owned power firm SJVN Ltd, which would be bought by another power firm such as state-owned NTPC or NHPC, sources said.

Eventually, the officials say the government would like to see its shareholdings reduced to 26 per cent in some companies if the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party gets a third term.

"That step will be real privatisation," the second official said.

India seeks to raise $47 billion from stake sales in state firms over 5 years
 
Pakistan facing corruption, terrorism problem and every political party here wants it's own objectives to be fulfilled.political parties eat all the money and don't invest it on provinces.examples are Sindh and balochistan.peoples party is so corrupt that they eat all money.some of the places in Sindh feels like some type of village.they will continue giving vote to people's party in the name of Bhutto lol.i appreciate hard work by India but indian problem is their population.there is no mechanism to stop population growth here that's why you can see more poverty and unemployment here.pakistan is a small country but population is growing fast which is not good.

The only way to effectively curb population growth is development and bringing people out of poverty.
More poverty leads to more children, which leads to more poverty. This is an unvirtuous cycle.

There is no other way to stop population growth unless you go full China with draconian violation of human rights.
 
Very interesting article. Has great implication for our population, poverty and economy
@fyodor @Arsalan123 this is case in point of what you were talking about.
@BlackOpsIndia @_Anonymous_ @vstol Jockey @Falcon @Parthu @randomradio @Sathya @Guynextdoor @BMD @Nilgiri etc. you all should see this.

India’s other growth story: where slow is good

4 min read . Updated: 08 Jul 2019, 01:54 PM IST
By Rukmini S.
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The estimates for when India is expected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country have been fluctuating every year. (Pradeep Gaur/Mint)

India’s population is growing slower than earlier estimated as states make quick progress, the latest population data shows

India‘s slowing population growth had a substantial impact on global population trends, a deeper look at new global population estimates published by the United Nations Population Division shows.

A comparison of the latest World Population Prospects (2019 revision) with previous editions suggests that the downward revision in India’s population estimates for the future was the largest of any country, while the estimates for China’s population growth were simultaneously revised upwards.

The estimates for when India is expected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country have been fluctuating every year.

Estimates for India's and China's future populations mirror each other

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Source: World Population Prospects, various years

The new projections for India are the lowest they have been since the UN first began these projections a decade ago.

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Behind these downward revisions is the story’s of India’s rapidly accelerating demographic transition, a phenomenon whose pace has defied global expectations. Population projections emerge from the expected direction that trends in births and deaths take in a given country. Changes in the fertility rate - the expected number of children that a woman will have in her lifetime - affect the birth rate, while changes in disease environments (the slowing global spread of HIV/AIDS mortality, for instance) affect the death rate.

India’s fertility rate has fallen faster than earlier predicted by international agencies, on the back of falling fertility in its poorest states. Even among high fertility social groups --- the most prominent and widely discussed of which are Muslims --- fertility is falling faster than anticipated.

In demographic terms, 2.1 is the “replacement level of fertility", meaning that if every woman had 2.1 children on average, the population would remain of the same size. By 2013, India’s Total Fertility Rate(TFR) was already down to 2.3 children per woman, a further decline from 2.4 in 2012. The earlier UN population projections estimated a higher fertility rate for this period, throwing their population projections off.

The TFR in 23 Indian states and Union Territories, including all of the south, is now below replacement level and only Bihar and Meghalaya still had TFRs above 3 children per woman as of 2016.

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Source: NFHS 2015-16

But India’s poorest states with its highest fertility rates are moving the fastest at reducing fertility. In 2011, Sample Registration Survey data indicated that between 1999-2001 and 2009-2011, the states doing the best job at lowering fertility were ones with an already low fertility rate, raising concerns that fertility outcomes might be diverging instead of converging. However the most recent data has shown that between 2004-06 and 2014-16, the backward states were pushing forward, lowering their fertility fastest. In every state and at every age group, more educated women had the lowest fertility rates.

Muslims in India continue to have a higher fertility rate than Hindus, as they have since the relevant Census data began to be recorded. However, Muslim fertility is falling faster than Hindu fertility, and the gap between the fertility rates of the two communities is closing, the most recent National Family Health Survey shows, according to an analysis by HowIndiaLives.com.

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Total Fertility rate refers to the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime at current fertility levels
Source: National Family Health Survey

States that are doing an overall better job on reducing fertility are also doing a better job of closing this gap between the two communities’ fertility rates, demographer Saswata Ghosh found - as these states get richer, better educated and healthier, all women in these states are beginning to have fewer kids. As a result, Muslim women in the southern states have a lower fertility rate than Hindus in the Gangetic belt states; high Muslim fertility is only a problem in states with high levels of fertility for all women. Even at the district level “[g]enerally, it has been observed that in areas with a considerable decline in fertility there is hardly any district with very high fertility among Muslims," he found.

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*J&K not included because there is a high degree of mismatch between TFR obtained from Sample Registration System, 2011 and that computed from Census 2011. Andhra Pradesh and Telangana are not separated here.
Source: Saswata Ghosh (ADRI) based on Census 2011

In India, however, fertility also closely ties in with son preference. Over the same time period that India has lowered its fertility, its sex ratio at birth --- the proportion of girls to boys born to all women --- has become markedly skewed in favour of boys. Limiting family size is closely related to the sex and birth order of the family’s existing children. According to the latest National Family Health Survey, 89% of women aged 15-49 with two sons and no daughters were content with a family size of four. But for women who had daughters but no sons, a larger family was on the cards. Among women aged 15-49 with two living daughters and no sons, 63% wanted no more children, in comparison. With no real evidence that the Indian preference for at least one son is going away any time soon, slowing population growth may continue for the near future to mean that families, as far as possible, attempt to have fewer girls.

Implicit in projections of global population, however, are assumptions about development, mortality and fertility that at times require the UN demographers to take leaps beyond what historical data predict, an exercise that can lead to revisions if reality does not pan out in precisely the same way. For example, the 2019 projections find that in some east Asian and southern European countries (such as Japan, Korea, Greece and Italy), fertility has fallen below 1.5 children per woman. However, since women in these countries express a desire for two children, the UN projects that in the future, with better childcare options, fertility in those countries might rise.

Rukmini S. is a Chennai-based journalist.


India’s other growth story: where slow is good
 
India to overtake Japan to become 3rd largest economy in 2025

India will overtake the UK to become the world's fifth largest economy in 2019.

PTI | Jul 12, 2019, 05.54 PM IST
growth-bccl.jpg

BCCL
Also, the size of the Indian consumer market is forecast to increase from $1.9 trillion in 2019 to $3.6 trillion by 2025.

New Delhi: India will this year overtake the UK to become the world's fifth biggest economy, and is poised to surpass Japan to be the third largest in 2025, IHS Markit said in a report Friday. Following the re-election of the BJP government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to a second term of office in May 2019, the Finance Ministry has published an economic roadmap to 2025 in its latest annual Economic Survey.

The key goal is to transform India from a $3 trillion economy in 2019 to a $5 trillion economy by 2025, lifting India into the ranks of the world's upper-middle-income countries, it said.

"IHS Markit estimates that India will overtake the UK to become the world's fifth largest economy in 2019, and forecasts that Indian GDP will reach $5.9 trillion in 2025, surpassing Japanese GDP to make India the world's third-largest economy," the report said.

Also, the size of the Indian consumer market is forecast to increase from $1.9 trillion in 2019 to $3.6 trillion by 2025.

"As India continues to ascend in the rankings of the world's largest economies, its contribution to global GDP growth momentum will also increase. As the size of its consumer market continues to grow at a rapid pace, India will also play an increasingly important role as one of the Asia-Pacific region's major economic growth engines, helping to drive Asian regional trade and investment flows," IHS said.

But to achieve this, the country's new economic roadmap highlights the importance of creating a virtuous cycle of investment, savings and exports in order to sustain rapid economic growth over the next five years.

The role of investment is seen as a critical enabler for innovation, rapid productivity growth and new technology, helping to boost jobs growth. The roadmap described in the latest Economic Survey highlights the importance of creating a favourable ecosystem for private investment, particularly in the new economy.

IHS said accelerating the development of new economy startups and growing new unicorns is a critical strategy for creating value-added and skilled jobs growth.

"Despite significant achievements in new infrastructure construction during PM Modi's first term, rapid infrastructure development in key sectors such as transport and power infrastructure remain important priorities, as well as reducing the regulatory burden of government red tape," it said.

India was ranked 77 out of 190 countries that are included on the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index for 2019.

The Economic Survey highlights the importance of reforms to the legal system, citing the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Report, which ranks India 163rd in the world for contract enforcement.

It recommends the hiring of additional judges to rapidly reduce the number of unfilled vacancies and clear long backlogs in the court system.

Another important reform that is highlighted as a priority in the Economic Survey is changing labour market law to remove restrictive labour regulation.

"However, although India still lags behind other large emerging markets such as Turkey (43rd), China (46th) and Mexico (54th) on this ranking, India has made remarkable progress in improving its ranking compared with its ranking at 142nd out of 189 countries in the Ease of Doing Business ranking for 2015," IHS said.

Moreover, the increase in India's total population between 2015 and 2050 is projected at around 350 million persons, creating significant fiscal challenges for the government in order to deliver adequate physical infrastructures such as electricity, sanitation, affordable housing and public transport.

At the same time, India's population growth rate is also projected to slow rapidly over the next two decades, resulting in gradual ageing of the population, bringing additional fiscal challenges relating to healthcare, pensions and social welfare for senior citizens.

"Despite the wide range of economic challenges facing the nation, the economic outlook looks positive for the second term of the Modi-led BJP government, with GDP growth forecast by IHS Markit to average around 7 per cent per year over the 2019-2023 period," it added.

India to overtake Japan to become 3rd largest economy in 2025
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Hellfire
A bit old but worth the read.
What an high quality comprehensive report ! If it weren't for the background info provided in the article I wouldn't understand half of it.
Do take the time to read it in full.

‘We don’t need Subramanian to tell us the economy is slowing’

8 min read . Updated: 24 Jun 2019, 12:28 AM IST
By Gireesh Chandra Prasad, Shreya Nandi
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PMEAC chairman Bibek Debroy.

A former CEA should be more careful before articulating views in the public domain... It does great damage to the country, says Bibek Debroy, chairman of PMEAC

NEW DELHI: The credibility of India’s statistics system came under a shadow when a former insider, Arvind Subramanian who has served as chief economic advisor (CEA) in the finance ministry for four years until last year, claimed in a paper earlier this month that there was a significant overestimation of India’s economic growth for the period from 2011-12 to 2016-17 because of methodology changes. The actual annual average gross domestic product (GDP) growth may have been 4.5% for this period instead of the 7% officially estimated, according to Subramanian. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC), however, rejected the idea in a paper last week, saying Subramanian’s conclusion was technically inappropriate and demoralising to the dedicated team of official statisticians and economists. Subramanian should not have questioned the credibility of India’s statistics system, PMEAC chairman Bibek Debroy says in an interview but concedes that the system is not perfect and the unfolding economic slowdown warrants action. Edited excerpts:

You have not entirely rejected the gaps in GDP estimation that Arvind Subramanian has highlighted, have you?

Dr Arvind Subramanian is a close friend. No personal fights with him. He is not just any individual. He is not any economist. He is a former chief economic advisor. As he is a former CEA, his views are taken a little bit more seriously than the views of an average economist. I think a former CEA should be a little bit more careful before articulating views in the public domain or bringing out a working paper, which is methodologically questionable. The moment you put out headlines that say that India’s GDP was overestimated by 2.5% and India’s real GDP growth rate over that period was 4.5%, it tends to get picked up by international newspapers and magazines. It does great damage to the country and I think any former chief economic advisor, including Dr Arvind Subramanian, should be much more careful.

Our paper (PMEAC’s rebuttal of Subramanian’s paper) is signed not just by members of the PMEAC but also by others who have felt uncomfortable with what Subramanian has done. For example, Arvind Virmani (a former CEA) and Charan Singh are not members of the council. However, they felt sufficiently disturbed by Subramanian’s paper to lend their names to this paper.

On Subramanian’s methodology, I will not get into details. Based on a bunch of regressions and correlations, Subramanian is saying that as India is an outlier in the relationship between certain indicators and the GDP growth, the figure of 2.5% GDP overestimation is arrived at. Therefore, India’s GDP grew at 4.5%. (Subramanian had pointed out that the correlation between most indicators such as electricity consumption, two-wheeler and commercial vehicle sales, and railway freight traffic, and the GDP growth broke down in the post-2011 period to argue that GDP growth was overestimated.)

In that case, one should exactly do the same regression with the other countries to check. Dr Surjit Bhalla, who used to be a member of the PMEAC, has mirrored in the case of other countries exactly what Arvind Subramanian has done. He has done it for 89 countries with the same set of indicators and methodology. In that list of countries, India is at number 28. Jamaica tops the list and Germany comes second. Then there is Belgium and Britain. So if the logic is that if it (the correlation) is off the line, India has cooked up the data, then these countries have cooked up data more. (Bhalla wrote in The Indian Express on Saturday that Subramanian’s method of estimating GDP suggested Germany over-estimates and Brazil under-estimates it the most, while India is only a mild outlier).

The holes in GDP estimation raise questions about the credibility of India’s statistics system, do they not?

The United Nations (UN) switched to a new system of national accounts in 2008, following which India also made the switch. It is not a switch that has happened overnight. The committee that examined it had experts in national income accounting. They recommended under the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government the transition to a new system of national accounts. In January 2015, the first National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government implemented it.

It was based on consensus among economists and national income experts in various committees. There has been such transition in other countries too. There, too, GDP estimates have changed because of the transition. All countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) made the transition between 2013 and 2015. In 2013, because of these changes, the US GDP was revised upwards by about 2.5%. That is because one of the things that UN’s 2008 system of national income accounts did was to try and measure the value of intellectual property. So the US constructed a back series to estimate the contribution of Hollywood, which went back to 1929. All countries did various kinds of revisions. Did people in America say their country was cooking up data? They did say that now that you have got Hollywood, the new series is not comparable with the old series. However, no one questioned the whole system. No one questioned the system in the OECD countries because it was the process of moving to a better method of measurement. No one is suggesting for a minute that the new system is perfect. The question is whether it is better.

Are you totally dismissing the negative correlation between GDP numbers and the performance of various industries that Subramanian highlighted?

Do not bring in Arvind Subramanian’s paper and reduce the importance of those questions. We will come to that point. People ask questions about the imperfections in the ministry of corporate affairs’ (MCA’s) database (of companies). (MCA data is used in place of the annual survey of industries (ASI) in the new way of GDP estimation introduced in 2015). The ASI system was not perfect. No one is saying for a minute that the MCA system is perfect. I have statements by the former chief statistician and the former chairman of the National Statistical Commission Pronab Sen saying that it is not very obvious what the imperfections in the MCA system do to GDP. Why should I disbelieve him?

Also, do realise that Arvind’s figures —4.5%—is in real terms but GDP is in nominal terms, not in real terms. We need a deflator to deflate it. If we are looking at the nominal GDP, whether it is the CSO (Central Statistics Office) back series, or whether it is the alternative back series that was earlier done by Sudipto Mundle, there is virtually no difference in the nominal. In nominal (GDP) there is no discrepancy, which is a point, I am sorry to say, that Dr Arvind Subramanian does not even mention. The nominal figures are virtually the same. So the concern is with the GDP deflator (a measure of inflation), not about the nominal GDP growth rate. I want to stress this point. The ministry of statistics and programme implementation (MoSPI) had said in May that they are working on improving the price data and the deflators. Then it is a work in progress.

The economy is cooling down. What does one do about it?

Clearly, there has been a slowdown in the economy. No one denies that. I don’t actually need Arvind Subramanian’s working paper to argue that. A whole lot of people are arguing that there has been a slowdown in the system. It began several years ago, including when Arvind Subramanian was a part of the government. He has talked about that in the economic survey he authored without questioning the data. Most economists have said that this reflects certain structural weaknesses and they have suggested structural reforms to energise growth drivers. The drivers of growth essentially are consumption expenditure, investment, government expenditure and net exports. Obviously, there are limits to government expenditure because of fiscal compulsions. So, it boils down to what needs to be done to stimulate investments, private consumption expenditure, and net exports.

How fast should India’s economy expand to become a $5 trillion economy by 2024—the target set by Prime Minister Narendra Modi—and how do we manage that?

Several ingredients about what this government is likely to do has been set out in the President’s speech in Parliament. Several more things will be set out in the budget speech, which is not far away. So we need to wait a bit. The only thing I will say is whenever you are giving a dollar figure, it is subject to the exchange rate. The country’s GDP is always in the country’s terms. One can make some assumptions about the exchange rate and deduce what the growth rate should be.

Will doubts about robustness of India’s GDP estimation affect foreign direct investment inflows?

No one is saying for a minute the statistical system is perfect. It is constantly being improved. I do not think anyone’s cause is served by undermining the statistical system, domestically or internationally. Criticizing the way I am doing for the GDP deflator is one thing but masquerading it to question the whole Indian statistical system is unnecessary and uncalled for on the part of a former CEA.

Indian economy has too many problems to grapple with now. In addition to the pile of toxic assets in the banking sector and over-leveraged corporations, now we have liquidity problems in non-banking sector. Trade tensions add more uncertainty to investments and growth. Your thoughts on this?

Wait for 5 July for your answers. There are some problems that are exogenous to the country. You cannot do much about them. When India had very high rates of growth, the external sector was much better and we need similar external environment to get back to high growth rates. There are internal issues also and there is plenty of slack within the system to get respectable growth rate. The figures floating around do not suggest the NBFC problem is as large as the other problems we have known about.

‘We don’t need Subramanian to tell us the economy is slowing’
 
Geo-tagging, e-payment, real-time check — how Modi’s rural housing scheme is different

PMAY-G uses Socio Economic Caste Census data – which brings in exhaustive parameters of deprivation – to ensure improved beneficiary targeting process.

Ruhi Tewari, Updated: 16 July, 2019 12:19 pm IST
rural-housing.jpg

A house under construction under the PMAY (G) scheme | pmayg.nic.in

New Delhi: If the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) was the signature initiative of the Congress-led UPA regime, then Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana-Gramin (PMAY-G) or rural housing scheme has been the most-prized project of the Narendra Modi-led BJP government.

Being pro-poor, both programmes have helped the respective governments politically and electorally.

But while MGNREGA was conceptualised and introduced by the UPA government, the PMAY-G is a refurbished version of the Indira Awaas Yojana (IAY) — launched in 1985 by former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi to construct houses for the BPL population in villages.

PMAY-G was introduced on 1 April 2016, two years after the Modi government came to power with an aim to provide “housing for all’’ by 2022 – its immediate objective was to cover 1 crore families living in kutcha/dilapidated houses by 2018-19.

But PMAY-G’s makeover wasn’t merely about this government’s near-obsession to do away with all that is associated with the Nehru-Gandhi clan. An entire overhaul was planned and executed, resulting in a drastic improvement of the scheme’s implementation.

While tabling the Union Budget for 2019-20 last week, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had claimed that the time spent on constructing a house has been reduced by more than half since PMAY-G was introduced.

“With the use of technology and platforms such as the DBT (direct benefit transfer), the average number of days for completion of a house has reduced from 314 days in 2015-16 to 114 days in 2017-18,” she said.

According to ministry data, a total of 1.54 crore rural homes were completed in the past five years and in the second phase – from 2019-20 to 2021-22 – another 1.95 crore houses are targeted to be built.

Of the 1.54 crore houses, around 72 lakh were those sanctioned under the IAY but built/completed under the Modi government before PMAY-G took off in 2016. The data also shows that since the scheme was reformed in 2016, the number of houses constructed has also increased by nearly a double.

So why was an overhaul of the IAY needed, what changes were brought in and what results did they eventually yield? ThePrint does a deep dive into PMAY-G to answer these questions and examine data to establish the trends post-2016.

The need to fix IAY

IAY was known to be riddled with deficiencies, most notably its inability to target deserving beneficiaries, stop bureaucratic red-tape and inordinate delays.

Though launched in 1985, the scheme was introduced in 1996 as an independent housing programme aimed at providing roofs to the homeless.

A report by the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) in 2014 had pointed out specific gaps in the scheme, prompting the rural ministry to closely examine it and highlight the need for well-planned reforms.

“The scheme was running on auto-pilot until then but the CAG report brought to fore the big problems and how all the money that was being spent could actually end up yielding no results. That is when the ministry decided to do a re-think and the new BJP government was also keen on taking this up on a mission mode,” said a ministry official, who did not wish to be identified.

To begin with, the CAG report pointed towards lack of transparency in selection of beneficiaries and said it lacked an effective monitoring process. The poor quality of houses constructed under the scheme was also emphasised, as was the fact that designs lacked diversity to suit different geographical requirements. There was no technical supervision either.

The ministry then decided to address each issue flagged by CAG by bringing in a multitude of reforms, including convergence with other schemes.

The makeover

“We wanted to address each and every gap identified in the CAG report. Some of the biggest reforms have been evidence-based beneficiary selection, geo-tagging of assets, convergence and making electronic payments compulsory in order to ensure minimal leakage of funds,” Amarjeet Sinha, secretary, rural development ministry, told ThePrint.

Sinha added that there were also efforts to bring down unspent balances, since a lot of funds were “found to be sitting idle”.

“Most importantly, each state has assumed a leadership role to implement this scheme – irrespective of the ruling party,” Sinha added.

To begin with, the unit assistance under PMAY-G was increased from Rs 70,000 to Rs 1.20 lakh in the plains and from Rs 75,000 to Rs 1.30 lakh in hilly states, difficult areas and IAP districts.

Beneficiaries can also avail loan up to Rs 70,000 from financial institutions in addition to unit assistance.

To ensure a more targeted and water-tight beneficiary selection, it was decided that the Socio Economic Caste Census (SECC) data – which brings in exhaustive parameters of deprivation – will be used. Homeless families or those living in houses with one or two kutcha walls and thatched roofs were identified and targeted. Moreover, a ‘permanent wait list’ was drawn up so states have a ready-list of households to be covered under the scheme in the coming years.

According to the revised process, the list is made public in gram sabhas after which objections and claims are entertained through an appellate process.

Also, for every beneficiary, a picture of her or his existing kutcha house has to be uploaded and geo-tagged by an official, who will then be responsible for any incorrect selection or misrepresentation.

The online platform – AwaasSoft – is used to monitor the scheme on a ‘real-time basis’ and photos of construction in each stage and its progress have to be uploaded before the next installment is released. Funds reach the beneficiaries’ accounts via DBT.

Special attention was paid to design, quality and suitability of constructions – with around 130 housing typologies brought for specific geographical and climatic conditions. This was done after studies conducted across 18 states.Houses in flood prone areas, therefore, have to be constructed on stilts and with slanting roofs. All designs have been vetted by the Central Building Research Institute.

Through convergence with MGNREGA, Ujjwala Yojana and Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, an integrated approach was adopted. Houses now have to be complete units, ministry officials claim, with toilets and cooking gas connections. Minimum size of a house was increased from 20 square meters to 25 square meters, with a “dedicated area for hygienic cooking”.

What the ministry believes as its most crucial reform is ensuring that the house is in the name of either a woman member of the family or a joint ownership with a male member. While 27 per cent of the total houses sanctioned so far have been in women’s name, around 35 per cent have been in men’s name and 38 per cent in joint ownership.

Meanwhile, of the total sanctions made so far, around 52 per cent were made to households belonging to the Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe communities.

New social audit rules were proposed by the ministry, which include “assessing whether sufficient awareness about the scheme has been generated” and if “people’s voices were heard in the implementation of the scheme.”

Feedback on these proposed rules were sought from states. The social audit has to be conducted once a year in every panchayat.

“Under the restructured scheme, physical monitoring mechanisms at various
levels have also been adopted which are conceptualised with an objective to
perform prudential assessment of the scheme,” the ministry states in the social audit guidelines document.

The results

A clear pattern emerges when one looks at the data made available by the rural development ministry. Under PMAY-G, around 32 lakh houses were constructed in 2016-17, 44 lakh in 2017-18 and around 46 lakh in 2018-19. Overall, 92.6 lakh houses were built between 2017-19.

Under IAY, however, the figures are far lower. Before the scheme was revised in 2016, only around 10.5 lakh houses were built in 2012-13, another 10.5 lakh in 2013-14, 11.9 lakh in 2014-15 and 18.2 lakh in 2015-16.

Post the makeover, therefore, there has been a clear increase in the number of houses constructed in a year, according to ministry data. These statistics are those compiled by the ministry and it is difficult to verify them through alternative sources.

Compare this with its urban counterpart, Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana-Urban (PMAY-U), and the story is quite different. Under PMAY-U, launched by PM Modi in 2015, a little over 81 lakh houses with an investment of about Rs 4.83 lakh crore have been sanctioned so far. Of this, construction of just a little over half – about 47 lakh houses – has begun so far. Over 26 lakh houses have been completed, of which around 24 lakh houses have been delivered to the beneficiaries – a far lower figure than the rural scheme.

The issues

Lacunae, however, remain, including the inability to comprehensively cover landless families. Less than one fourth of landless beneficiaries have been provided land for constructing houses under the scheme.

According to official data, only 21.9 per cent of the identified landless beneficiaries have been provided land – an issue that was part of the agenda during the scheme’s Performance Review Committee meeting held last month.

Ministry officials, however say these are merely those beneficiaries who do not have land titles and for whom alternative land sites have to be found.

The quality of houses, according to revised norms, remain another question to be answered. Constructions are new and hence it is too early to tell how durable they are.

There are also state-wise variation in implementation of schemes. According to a ministry note, as on June this year, a little over 7 lakh houses were delayed. These were those that had not been completed even after 12 months from the date of release of the first installment of funds. In this respect, states like Bihar, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, West Bengal and Assam were found to be defaulters.

Gaps in sanction of houses versus target constructions were also observed in seven states, including Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Assam and Tamil Nadu.

Convergence also has a long way to go, with less than half of the PMAY-G houses being provided with cooking gas connections under Ujjwala.

Moreover, while all funds transfer may be electronic, corruption at the panchayat level continues. West Bengal’s ‘cut money‘ phenomenon reflects how the system is yet to be made corruption free.

The political push

The reforms of the rural housing scheme, however, has not been a mere administrative matter. The BJP, led by Modi, has made it a political mission, with a clear eye on reaching out to the rural electorate and projecting a pro-welfare image for itself.

PM Modi took personal interest in the scheme and even mentioned it in several of his speeches, pushing it to the hilt in the run-up to the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

Speaking at an event in March this year, the PM said that it was his “dream to see every Indian have a Pukka house by 2022”.

“The Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana was a long term commitment made by PM Modi to the nation. It has seen substantial progress especially in eastern India. PM’s vision behind this was to ensure dignity for all. The step to give homes in the name of women was also appreciated. We seem to be on track to provide housing for all by 2022. The emphasis was not on just providing a house but also to provide all necessary amenities like cooking gas, toilet and water. This is a dovetailing of government schemes. Given its success and wide reach, it has helped us greatly in elections,” said a highly placed source in the BJP, who did not wish to be identified.

Voters, meanwhile, mention that rural housing is one of the most popular welfare schemes of the Modi government, along with Ujjwala and toilet constructions.

Geo-tagging, e-payment, real-time check — how Modi's rural housing scheme is different
 
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Saurav Jha (@SJha1618) Tweeted:
Not only is China using the goods FTA between India and ASEAN implemented since 2010 to circumvent Indian duties on various items, it is also using the bloc to pressurize India on RCEP. ASEAN continues to resist a comprehensive services pact with India. ( )


Saurav Jha (@SJha1618) Tweeted:
ASEAN is the trojan through which the Chinese Empire continues to undercut Indian industry. ( )
 
Amazing how we needed a think tank to tell us this.:rolleyes:
Even then there is no certainty that we will pull out of it.
I don't think it's our objective ever to be part of the RCEP in its current form with our economic status being what it is. The objective had been always to test the waters and see how much have we got for ourselves following which to stretch negotiations as far as possible. The latter seems to have reached its limit. We'd have to take a call on it or rather we'd be forced to take a call on it. Please also note that even without the RCEP our FTA's with ASEAN are costing us heavily. Further the RCEP is the single biggest trade bloc there is in the world today. Ignoring it will also carry costs in that ASEAN already closely interlinked with China will be even more connected with it apart from with Japan & RoK.We need to be grateful the US isn't part of it thanks to Trump pulling out unilaterally.
 
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I don't think it's our objective ever to be part of the RCEP in its current form with our economic status being what it is. The objective had been always to test the waters and see how much have we got for ourselves following which to stretch negotiations as far as possible. The latter seems to have reached its limit. We'd have to take a call on it or rather we'd be forced to take a call on it. Please also note that even without the RCEP our FTA's with ASEAN are costing us heavily. Further the RCEP is the single biggest trade bloc there is in the world today. Ignoring it will also carry costs in that ASEAN already closely interlinked with China will be even more connected with it apart from with Japan & RoK.We need to be grateful the US isn't part of it thanks to Trump pulling out unilaterally.
So you are saying that the RCEP negotiation was a stalling tactics from India ? If so that's brilliant, but its starting to come off.

We'll need to do more than just stall to fix or trade deficit with China.
 
So you are saying that the RCEP negotiation was a stalling tactics from India ? If so that's brilliant, but its starting to come off.

We'll need to do more than just stall to fix or trade deficit with China.
In the absence of any reform on labour and land, we aren't going to attract any significant investment in industry here.These are two of the most crucial issues to be resolved. Once that is done, other bottlenecks remain viz bureaucracy, local politicians, criminal elements , infrastructure, communication and power.

Pls note that the first port of call of all those industries abandoning China is ASEAN. Not a single significant company has even looked up to India. Part of the reason is also due to the fact that many western industries have designed their industrial eco system around China and Asean with a symbiotic relationship between the latter where in both of them are part of their supply chain. Hence shifting shop is all the more easier.

Modi has his task cut out. He has to accomplish whatever he's set out to from 2014 onwards in just the next 2-3 years. Post that election season kicks in once again and he'd be restrained from taking radical measures. That's one of the reasons one is seeing massive defections being engineered from the opposition ranks in the RS.

To take the tagline from one of my favourite movies Syriana - Everything's connected.
 
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Innovative India

Francis Gurry | Updated on July 21, 2019, Published on July 21, 2019
bl22THINK2INNOVATION


Making rapid strides on the innovation front

How does an ambitious country become an innovation nation? In capitals across the globe, including New Delhi, that is a question preoccupying leaders seeking to promote innovation.

The answer is, of course, for boosting innovation no one size fits all, which is as complex and varied as the world’s national contexts and cultures.

The first step to find a customised answer, however, is understanding the general outlines of a successful innovation ecosystem. That is why the United Nations agency, the World Intellectual Property Organization, has developed the Global Innovation Index (GII) together with top business universities: France’s INSEAD and Cornell University, US. The Confederation of Indian Industry has been a long-standing GII Knowledge Partner.

The GII measures the innovative capacity and outputs of 129 economies, using 80 indicators ranging from standard measurements such as research and development investments and patent and trademark filings, to mobile-phone app creation and high-tech net exports.

This year, India is hosting the launch of the 2019 edition of the GII.

India has consistently worked on developing its intellectual property system to provide an enabling environment for innovation to flourish at all levels, including grassroots and frugal innovation. Its engagement with WIPO reflects its strong commitment to multilateral cooperation in this field.

India is also currently engaged in opening WIPO-supported Technology and Innovation Support Centers (TISCs) in the country, which will help local innovators and creators research and market their products.

A range of government policies and programmes, including the “Make in India”, “Start-up India”, “Innovate India” and “Digital India” initiatives, have fuelled this innovation drive.

In 2016, India created a high-level Task Force on Innovation to improve its innovation system based on the GII metrics. In collaboration with WIPO, the first India Innovation Index — focusing on ranking Indian States — was released in 2018.

Looking overseas, Indian innovators have increasingly turned to WIPO’s International Patent System to lodge international patent applications, with usage up by 27 per cent in 2018.

According to the GII, India is the most innovative country in Central and Southern Asia since 2011 and has consistently outperformed on innovation relative to its GDP per capita for nine years in a row, a record only matched by two other countries.

On the quality of innovation — including the quality of scientific publications, the quality of universities and patent-related filings — India ranks as the 2nd middle-income economy world-wide.

India is consistently among the top in the world in innovation drivers such ICT services exports, graduates in science and engineering, the quality of universities and scientific publications, economy-wide investments and also creative goods exports.

India also features in the GII ranking on the world’s top science and technology clusters, with Bengaluru, Mumbai and New Delhi included among the global top 100 clusters. Overall, India’s rank has improved from 81st in 2015 to 57th in 2018.

Over the years, India has established strong fundamentals and creative innovation policies. The unveiling of the GII 2019 in New Delhi, will help India’s advances in innovation to continue.

The writer is Director General, World Intellectual Property Organization.

Innovative India
 
Statsguru: India's population profile explained through six charts

Sample Registration System data provides critical insights in to India's growing population which now stands at 133.92 crore

By Abhishek Waghmare, Last Updated at July 22, 2019 02:40 IST
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India's population profile

The recently released Sample Registration System data has many critical insights on states, and thus form a key input in designing state-specific policies on public health.

Number 1 :
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Look at the share of children and youth in some key states (Chart 1). While median age in India lies between 20 and 24 (2017), age profiles vary drastically across states. People nearing their 30s are the biggest cohort in Tamil Nadu and Punjab, but children are more than a third of the population in Bihar.

Number 2 :
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Though India’s total fertility rate(TFR) is nearing replacement rate of 2.1, that for rural Indian women is still high. One reason that explains the slower reduction in TFR is that the age group where family planning peaks is the most populous age cohort in India in current times (Chart 2).

Number 3 :
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One reason could be the prevalence of giving birth to children at early age of marriage. Chart 3 shows that marital fertility is highest in the age bracket of 15 to 19 for Bihar and Assam. This means that couples where the woman is below 20 tend to have more children than elder couples in these states.

Number 4 :
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For poorer states, deaths at early age are as ubiquitous as early-age pregnancies. Nearly 20 per cent of deaths are in below the five year mark in Bihar and Madhya Pradesh, twice the proportion at the national average (Chart 4).

Number 5 :
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This is the biggest block in reaching the sustainable development goal of under-five mortality rate of 25 by 2030(Chart 5).

Number 6 :
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Education influences family planning like nothing else, and propensity to rear children reduces with education. Chart 6 shows that for women who have completed graduation, total fertility rate is as low as 1.4. If this is imitated at the national level, it would cause a decline in the population.

Statsguru: India's population profile explained through six charts
 
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